LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
(George Henneke – ASPI The Strategist) On 9 January, the US Army released a new space vision focused on integrated multidomain operations. The brief document provides valuable perspective on how the US Army views its role in joint and combined space operations
The state of Australian defence space strategy | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Belarus
(Defense News – The Associated Press) The defense minister of Belarus said Tuesday that the country will put forth a new military doctrine that for the first time provides for the use of nuclear weapons. Russia last year sent tactical nuclear weapons to be stationed in Belarus, although there are no details about how many. Russia has said it will maintain control over those weapons, which are intended for battlefield use and have short ranges and comparatively low yields
Belarus hints at new doctrine for using nuclear weapons (defensenews.com)
Climate Action
1 – (Swati Prabhu – Observer Research Foundation) 2024 could turn out to be a pivotal year for development finance as it would be interesting to see how countries direct their ODA allocations alongside climate exigencies
Refashioning ODA for ‘just financing’ in 2024 (orfonline.org)
2 – (Trisha Ray – Observer Research Foundation) Climate change is impacting data centres that are vital for a country’s digital development. It is critical, therefore, for data centre strategies to account for future climate changes
Climate change may kill data sovereignty (orfonline.org)
India
(Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia – Observer Research Foundation) To achieve both its development goals and energy transition goals, India needs consistently higher levels of growth in national income to enhance the pool of investible capital
Aspirations must be backed by investments for the energy transition (orfonline.org)
India – Maldives – China
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu has made it clear that he has no intention of bringing Delhi-Male ties from the edge of a precipice. In fact, he has doubled down with a rhetorical escalation after his return from China. Even as his ministers were passing derogatory remarks against the Indian Prime Minister, Muizzu, during his five-day state visit to China last week, described China one of its “closest allies and development partners” and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects as “the most significant infrastructure projects witnessed in Maldivian history”
India Should Let Maldives Learn The Cost Of A Chinese Embrace (orfonline.org)
Indonesia
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) The February 14 election marks a potential turning point in Southeast Asia’s most powerful state, likely determining its future relations with China and the United States, and the fate of the country’s own democracy
Israel
(Ariel Sobelman, TZ – INSS) In recent years the technological struggle between the United States and China has intensified. Washington has increased its efforts to deny Beijing access to advanced technologies and has announced huge investments to accelerate technological research and development, in order to secure its status as the world’s strongest economic power. At the same, time, the United States is demanding that its partners join the fight and adopt a policy of restricting China’s research, development, and manufacturing capabilities in the field of advanced chips. Investment in technological research, development, and manufacture is a vital component and a relative advantage that Israel enjoys, but this is only a partial solution to the problem. Israel needs a national plan to cover all aspects of the development, manufacturing, and trade in chips. This memorandum presents alternative technological policies for Israel and calls for a discussion, as soon as possible, on national technological strategy
National Technology Plan in Israel | INSS
Israel – USA
(Nir Reuven – BESA Center) The significance of US security aid to Israel extends well beyond the economic realm. It plays a crucial role in the nation’s success and resilience. As Israel’s war in Gaza continues, a war that was sparked by the invasion of Israel and large-scale massacre of Israeli citizens by Hamas on October 7, 2023, there is a growing call for a reassessment of this aid within the US Senate and among the American public
Near East
1 – (Atlantic Council) On January 15, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for missile attacks into Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, that killed four and may have wounded as many as seventeen. According to the IRGC, the attacks were aimed at “the destruction of espionage headquarters” belonging to Israeli intelligence agency, Mossad, in “response to the recent evil acts of the Zionist regime in martyring IRGC and resistance commanders”—an apparent reference to the deaths of IRGC Brigadier General Razi Mousavi, Hamas deputy Saleh al-Arouri, and senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander Wissam al-Tawil. They also said that attacks, which included positions in Syria, were on “anti-Iranian terrorist groups”, referring to the twin attacks by the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) in Kerman on January 3 that killed eighty-six Iranians
Experts react: What to expect after Iranian attacks on Erbil – Atlantic Council
2 – (Baraa Shaiban – RUSI) Regardless of how seriously the Houthis may be hit, the strategy of periodic Western bombing cannot be sustained, and won’t bring stability to a vital strategic waterway
Bombing Yemen’s Houthis: Not a Long-Term Strategy | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
3 – (Chatham House) Experts discuss the US-UK response to the Houthi Red Sea attacks, the regional spill over of the Gaza war and the possibility of broader conflict in the Middle East
Repercussions of US-UK strikes on Yemen (chathamhouse.org)
4 – (David Siman-Tov, Nitsan Yasur, Danny Citrinowicz – INSS) This week the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) disclosed a number of influence efforts on social media by Iranian elements impersonating Israelis in order to influence the Israeli discourse, gather intelligence, and use Israeli citizens in a deceptive manner in order to deepen social and political divisions
Iranian Influence Efforts in the War in Gaza | INSS
5 – (Orna Mizrahi, Yoram Schweitzer – INSS) Casualties, tens of thousands of evacuees, and serious property damage – since October 8, in parallel to the war in Gaza, there has been ongoing fighting along the northern border. The fighting has been at high intensity, but has remained under the threshold of an all-out war. Despite the heavy price exacted of Hezbollah so far, an end to the organization’s belligerence does not appear on the horizon. How should Israel act?
100 Days of Fighting Against Hezbollah: An Interim Assessment | INSS
Pacific
(Sue Ahearn – ASPI The Strategist) Women journalists in the Pacific are mobilising to work together against gender discrimination in male dominated workplaces
Russia
(Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) The European Union (EU) is unleashing its 12th round of sanctions against Russia; this sanctions package would target both imports and exports, family members of the Kremlin elite, and would focus on secondary sanctions. The Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 saw the commencement of economic sanctions by the West—EU, the United States (US), New Zealand, Australia, and Canada—against the Russian Federation. Since then, Moscow has been drifting away from the international political economy
The Russia sanctions: Its evolution and ripple effects (orfonline.org)
Taiwan
(Jane Rickards – ASPI The Strategist) On 13 January, Lai Ching-te of Taiwan’s independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), was elected president of the raucously democratic island that China claims as its own. Also known as William Lai, he beat two China-friendly candidates to win 40% of Taiwan’s vote. His win was historic: no party has won Taiwan’s presidency three times in succession since direct presidential elections were instituted in 1996
Tech Perspectives & Cyber
1 – (Anton Korinek – Brookings) Recent advances in generative AI have the potential to revolutionize research. Large language models (LLMs) have crossed the threshold to become useful across a wide range of cognitive tasks. This was illustrated by the viral reception of ChatGPT, which was released by OpenAI in November 2022, gained more than 100 million users in its first two months, and was soon estimated to produce a volume of text every 14 days that is equivalent to all of the printed works of humanity. OpenAI and Google DeepMind have since released even more powerful LLMs, GPT-4 and Gemini. Moreover, a growing number of established tech companies and startups have developed their own generative AI systems or adapted them to specific use cases in what some commentators have started to call a “Cambrian explosion” of large language models
Generative AI for economic research: Use cases and implications for economists | Brookings
2 – (Mai Mavinkurve, Maroussia Lévesque – CIGI) “With recent advances in certain technologies, the exertion of influence has assumed a nuanced yet potent form that strains analog-era legal regimes. This influence operates on a large scale, driven by mass swaths of data and automated algorithms, while targeting individuals at a micro-level. It is gradually eroding our capacity to exercise agency over our thoughts and potentially compromising critical thinking faculties. A crucial question arises: where should the line be drawn between permissible influence and outright infringement upon our inherent right to freedom of thought? Who has oversight and where do responsibilities lie?”
3 – (HCSS) Navigating the digital landscape requires a complex balancing act between various interests, threats, and resilience. HCSS and the CyberPeace Institute are working together to increase cyber transparency, to inform policy processes and capacity building efforts, and contribute to accountability efforts. This new joint report provides an overview of the monitors and observatories developed to date by each organisation, which evolve as the threat and policy landscape evolves
USA
1 – (Whitney M. McNamara, Peter Modigliani, Matthew MacGregor, Eric Lofgren – Atlantic Council) As the United States addresses the rise of competing powers on the global stage, it must confront the acute threat posed by Russia and the longer-term one presented by China. With its military modernization progress, advanced offensive cyber capabilities, hybrid-warfare strategies, and aggressive territorial ambitions in Eastern Europe, Russia poses a considerable threat to democratic institutions and Western norms. Meanwhile, China has built the world’s largest military and grown into an economic powerhouse, igniting tension in disputed regional territories and expanding its geopolitical influence far beyond the Indo-Pacific. For the first time in history, the United States is faced with two revisionist powers armed with nuclear capabilities and detrimental territorial ambitions. This new age has amplified the need for enhanced deterrence and defensive measures, particularly in the case of Taiwan. Unfortunately, the United States’ defense acquisition process is plagued with lengthy timelines and inefficiencies, underscoring the urgent need for a fundamental shift in how the Department of Defense (DoD) approaches the adoption and integration of new technology
Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption: Final report – Atlantic Council
2 – (Elaine Kamarck – Brookings) The first contest for the 2024 Republican nomination ended up exactly where everyone thought it would. Trump won Iowa with just over 50% of the vote. He didn’t exceed expectations but neither did he fall below them. He won almost every county in the state and did better than he did in 2016 among groups like urban and suburban voters and college-educated voters, while his base of non-college and evangelical voters remained robust
Trump wins Iowa — no surprises there. What happens next? | Brookings
3 – (Kyle Hiebert – CIGI) Activists and campaign groups — backed by dozens of countries and Nobel Peace Prize laureates — have long sought a global treaty banning lethal autonomous weapons systems. When the underlying technology was unproven and the world was a less hostile place, this objective seemed possible. That’s no longer the case. The policy conversation must now focus on devising mechanisms to manage these systems rather than halt their development
4 – (Christopher Stone – Defense News) Providing what our armed forces require, given the threats facing our nation, is very important and should be the main focus of Congress and the White House. Unfortunately, the Space Force has not been given all it requires to deter and/or win a war for space superiority in great power conflict. First, current policy has restrained the Space Force from generating the requirements and resource requests necessary to achieve a credible deterrence and warfighting Space Force. Instead, current policy and strategic frameworks like the U.S. Space Priorities Framework focuses the service on enable and support missions for the joint force (i.e., terrestrial military operations). As a result, the service has not developed space deterrence and warfighting force postures that enable space superiority against our adversaries, but rather have continued on the path of graceful degradation via under attack
US Space Force needs more to effectively deter, win wars (defensenews.com)
5 – (Colin Demarest – Defense News) The U.S. Department of Defense’s de facto information-technology authority is building out its first-ever intelligence directorate. The establishment of the “J2″ office is meant to provide the Defense Information Systems Agency with a greater understanding of “what the adversary is trying to do” against the computing, sensitive networks and lines of communication it stewards, according to its director, Air Force Lt. Gen. Robert Skinner
DISA establishing ‘J2′ intelligence directorate amid workforce revamp (defensenews.com)
6 – (Courtney Albon – Defense News) The Space Development Agency selected three companies to build 18 satellites each for its space-based missile warning, tracking and defense constellation. The satellites will make up a portion of what SDA calls its Tranche 2 Tracking Layer, which will detect and track advanced missiles from low Earth orbit, about 1,200 miles above planet’s surface
Space Development Agency to buy 54 missile-tracking satellites (defensenews.com)
Nuovo Umanesimo per la Pace / New Humanism for Peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Il vincolo, i limiti e il respiro della Storia / The bond, the limits and the breath of History
- Pace nell’inter-in-dipendenza / Peace in inter-in-dependence
- La pace nella complessità / Peace in complexity
- Tra intelligenza umana, ‘senso’ democratico e rivoluzione tecnologica (Marzia Giglioli)
- Disuguaglianze in scenari complessi / Inequalities in complex scenarios (Marco Emanuele)
- Le disuguaglianze crescono. Il rapporto di Oxfam (Marzia Giglioli)
- Intelligenza artificiale e guerra. Riflessione sui limiti (Marzia Giglioli)
- Oltre i confini. Per il dialogo. A colloquio con Domitilla Olivieri (Università di Utrecht) / Beyond borders. For dialogue. In conversation with Domitilla Olivieri (Utrecht University) (Marzia Giglioli)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
