BUSSOLA GEOSTRATEGICA-CAMMINO COMPLESSO
GEOSTRATEGIC COMPASS – COMPLEX PATH
BOUSSOLE GÉOSTRATÉGIQUE – PARCOURS COMPLEXE
Vediamo un Occidente (diversamente unito) in difesa, un (presunto) centro del mondo che cerca alleati per una sicurezza economica da recuperare in una egemonia ormai contesa. Il tema sono le terre rare, i microchip, le catene del valore, l’ autonomia strategica: il tema è la Cina, è come contenere il Dragone.
In questa esasperata competizione tecnologico-economica i player cercano di ridefinire un nuovo ordine: mentre i “grandi” del G7 fanno il loro mestiere lineare, Pechino guarda – tra gli altri – ai Paesi dell’Asia Centrale. E il conteso Global South ?
Il nuovo ordine si gioca sulla ricerca e sulla produzione tecnologica, da un lato, e sullo spostamento del baricentro geostrategico dal centro alle periferie esistenziali. Chi, davvero, incarnerà la grande (e ormai grave) questione della sostenibilità politico-strategica del mondo e dei mondi ?
Per ora, continua il viaggio nella grande trasformazione, cammino difficile nella guerra mondiale a pezzi e nella megacrisi degenerativa: cammino nel quale le diverse crisi sono profondamente interrelate e nel quali le questioni della guerra coinvolgono sempre di più temi irrisolti (e incancreniti) tra identità, culture e fedi religiose usate come armi (per questo è fondamentale tornare a un sano, per quanto arduo, dialogo interreligioso).
In questa fase del viaggio prevalgono le propagande e i reciproci (e più o meno malevoli) giochi d’influenza (si pensi all’area molto sensibile del Mar Cinese Meridionale e, più in generale, all’Indo-Pacifico) ma, più di tutto, mancano un pensiero complesso e il talento critico e creativo in diplomazia (il che non significa che non esistano diplomazie sotterranee).
Vediamo muoversi il potere politico-istituzionale ma, con realismo, quello assomiglia sempre di più alla corsa stanca di Stati burocratici. Ci permettiamo un piccolo suggerimento ai naviganti nell’incertezza: occorre capire in fretta, e agire di conseguenza, l’informalità che sta vincendo sui formalismi di sapore novecentesco e senza respiro della storia. Chi saprà governare, al contempo, il quadro complesso tra alluvioni-siccità (crisi climatica) – rivoluzione tecnologica (IA generativa e tecnologie disruptive) – nuove forme della pace nell’orizzonte sempre più presente di un nucleare incombente e in un ambiente strategico in metamorfosi – resilienza sociale e disuguaglianze in una demografia in profonda trasformazione e in una crescente urbanizzazione – nuove vie del capitalismo e dello sviluppo ? Governare tutto questo, senza cedere alla tentazione di separare i vari aspetti, è ciò che serve: non per vincere o per sconfiggere ma per restituire all’umanità la dignità di esistere. Insieme.
(english version)
We see a (differently united) West in defence, a (supposed) centre of the world seeking allies for economic security to recover in a now disputed hegemony. Rare earths, microchips, value chains, strategic autonomy: the theme is China, it is how to contain the Dragon.
In this exasperated technological-economic competition, the players are trying to redefine a new order: while the G7s are doing their linear work, Beijing is looking – among others – at the countries of Central Asia. And the disputed Global South?
The new order is played out on research and technological production, on the one hand, and on the shift of the geostrategic centre of gravity from the centre to the existential peripheries, on the other. Who, indeed, will embody the great (and now serious) question of the political-strategic sustainability of the world and worlds?
For now, the journey continues in the great transformation, a difficult path in the world war in pieces and in the degenerative mega-crisis: a path in which the different crises are deeply interrelated and in which the questions of war increasingly involve unresolved (and entrenched) issues between identities, cultures and religious faiths used as weapons (this is why it is essential to return to a healthy, albeit arduous, inter-religious dialogue).
At this stage of the journey, propaganda and mutual (and more or less malicious) games of influence prevail (think of the very sensitive South China Sea area and the Indo-Pacific more generally) but, more than anything else, complex thinking and critical and creative talent in diplomacy are lacking (which is not to say that there are no underground diplomacies)
We see political-institutional power moving but, realistically, that looks more and more like the tired race of bureaucratic States. We would like to make a small suggestion to sailors in uncertainty: we need to understand quickly, and act accordingly, the informality that is winning out over the breathless, 20th-century-style formalisms of history. Who will know how to govern, at the same time, the complex framework between floods-droughts (climate crisis) – technological revolution (generative AI and disruptive technologies) – new forms of peace in the ever-present horizon of a looming nuclear power and in a metamorphosing strategic environment – social resilience and inequalities in a demography undergoing profound transformation and in increasing urbanisation – new paths of capitalism and development ? Governing all of this, without giving in to the temptation to separate the various aspects, is what is needed: not to win or to defeat, but to restore the dignity of existence to humanity. Together.
(version française)
Nous voyons un Occident (différemment uni) en défense, un centre du monde (supposé) à la recherche d’alliés pour la sécurité économique afin de retrouver une hégémonie aujourd’hui contestée. Terres rares, puces électroniques, chaînes de valeur, autonomie stratégique : le thème est la Chine, il s’agit de savoir comment contenir le Dragon.
Dans cette compétition technico-économique exaspérée, les acteurs tentent de redéfinir un nouvel ordre : pendant que les “grands” du G7 font leur travail linéaire, Pékin lorgne – entre autres – sur les pays d’Asie centrale. Et le Sud global disputé ?
Le nouvel ordre se joue sur la recherche et la production technologique, d’une part, et sur le déplacement du centre de gravité géostratégique du centre vers les périphéries existentielles, d’autre part. Qui, en effet, incarnera la grande (et désormais grave) question de la durabilité politico-stratégique du monde et des mondes ?
Pour l’instant, le voyage se poursuit dans la grande transformation, un chemin difficile dans la guerre mondiale par morceaux et dans la méga-crise dégénérative : un chemin dans lequel les différentes crises sont profondément liées et dans lequel les questions de guerre impliquent de plus en plus des problèmes non résolus (et enracinés) entre les identités, les cultures et les croyances religieuses utilisées comme armes (c’est pourquoi il est essentiel de revenir à un dialogue interreligieux sain, même s’il est ardu).
A ce stade du parcours, la propagande et les jeux d’influence réciproques (plus ou moins malveillants) prévalent (pensons à la zone très sensible de la mer de Chine méridionale et plus généralement à l’Indo-Pacifique) mais, plus que tout, la pensée complexe et le talent critique et créatif en matière de diplomatie font défaut (ce qui ne veut pas dire qu’il n’y a pas de diplomatie souterraine).
Nous voyons le pouvoir politico-institutionnel se déplacer mais, de manière réaliste, cela ressemble de plus en plus à la course fatiguée des États bureaucratiques. Nous voudrions faire une petite suggestion à ceux qui naviguent dans l’incertitude : il faut comprendre rapidement, et agir en conséquence, l’informalité qui l’emporte sur les formalismes essoufflés de l’histoire du XXe siècle. Qui saura gouverner, en même temps, le tableau complexe entre inondations-sécheresses (crise climatique) – révolution technologique (IA générative et technologies disruptives) – nouvelles formes de paix dans l’horizon toujours présent d’une puissance nucléaire menaçante et dans un environnement stratégique en métamorphose – résilience sociale et inégalités dans une démographie en profonde transformation et à l’urbanisation croissante – nouvelles voies du capitalisme et du développement ? Gouverner tout cela, sans céder à la tentation d’en séparer les différents aspects, voilà ce qu’il faut faire : non pas pour gagner ou pour vaincre, mais pour rendre à l’humanité la dignité de l’existence. Ensemble.
PROSPETTIVE GEOSTRATEGICHE DAI THINK TANK
GEOSTRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES FROM THINK TANK
PERSPECTIVES GÉOSTRATÉGIQUES DES THINK TANKS
Worlds
Africa
Brookings riflette sull’importanza dei processi di decarbonizzazione per l’Africa – Brookings reflects on the importance of decarbonisation processes for Africa – Brookings réfléchit à l’importance des processus de décarbonisation pour l’Afrique – Global decarbonization: Industrial opportunities for Africa (brookings.edu)
China
Nathaniel Sher scrive, per The Jamestown Foundation, della Cina tra de-dollarizzazione e internazionalizzazione del renminbi – Nathaniel Sher writes, for The Jamestown Foundation, about China between de-dollarisation and internationalisation of the renminbi – Nathaniel Sher écrit, pour The Jamestown Foundation, sur la Chine entre dédollarisation et internationalisation du renminbi – Serving the Real Economy: From De-dollarization to RMB Internationalization? – Jamestown
China – Afghanistan
Sudha Ramachandran scrive, per The Jamestown Foundation, del crescente attivismo di Pechino in Afghanistan e delle sfide da affrontare – Sudha Ramachandran writes for The Jamestown Foundation about Beijing’s growing activism in Afghanistan and the challenges it faces – Sudha Ramachandran écrit pour The Jamestown Foundation sur l’activisme croissant de Pékin en Afghanistan et les défis auxquels il est confronté – Can the Belt and Road Initiative Succeed in Afghanistan? – Jamestown
China – Central Asia
Russia Matters e l’importanza dell’approccio di Pechino all’Asia Centrale – Russia Matters and the importance of Beijing’s approach to Central Asia – Russia Matters et l’importance de l’approche de Pékin à l’égard de l’Asie centrale – Russia in Review, May 12-19, 2023 | Russia Matters
China – Russia
Vita Spivak scrive delle sanzioni che dovrebbero colpire le aziende cinese ancora operanti in Russia – Vita Spivak writes about the sanctions that should hit Chinese companies still operating in Russia – Vita Spivak évoque les sanctions qui devraient frapper les entreprises chinoises encore présentes en Russie – How Sanctions Have Changed the Face of Chinese Companies in Russia – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
China – Vietnam – Laos – Cuba
John S. Van Oudenaren scrive, per The Jamestown Foundation, del dialogo strategico – pur tra differenze – tra i Partiti comunisti al potere in Cina, Vietnam, Laos e Cuba – John S. Van Oudenaren writes, for The Jamestown Foundation, about the strategic dialogue – albeit between differences – between the ruling Communist Parties in China, Vietnam, Laos and Cuba – John S. Van Oudenaren écrit, pour The Jamestown Foundation, sur le dialogue stratégique – bien qu’il y ait des différences – entre les partis communistes au pouvoir en Chine, au Vietnam, au Laos et à Cuba – Party Ties: Vietnam, Cuba and China’s Relations with Other Marxist-Leninist States – Jamestown
Europe
Sean Monaghan e John Christianson scrivono, per Center for Strategic & International Studies, sulle difficoltà della difesa aerea e missilistica europea. L’importanza dell’iniziativa Sky Shield – Sean Monaghan and John Christianson write for Center for Strategic & International Studies on the difficulties of European air and missile defence. The importance of the Sky Shield initiative – Sean Monaghan et John Christianson écrivent pour le Center for Strategic & International Studies sur les difficultés de la défense aérienne et antimissile européenne. L’importance de l’initiative Sky Shield – Making the Most of the European Sky Shield Initiative (csis.org)
Judith Arnal e Raquel Jorge scrivono, per Elcano Royal Institute, delle infrastrutture di telecomunicazione come settori critici per l’autonomia strategica dell’UE – Judith Arnal and Raquel Jorge write for the Elcano Royal Institute about telecommunications infrastructure as critical sectors for the EU’s strategic autonomy – Judith Arnal et Raquel Jorge écrivent pour l’ Elcano Royal Institute sur les infrastructures de télécommunications en tant que secteurs critiques pour l’autonomie stratégique de l’UE – A Connectivity Package for the EU: considerations on digital strategic autonomy – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
Theodore Murphy scrive, per ECFR, del ruolo che l’Europa può assumere, nel rapporto con il sud globale, al di là della competizione tra USA e Cina – Theodore Murphy writes, for ECFR, about the role that Europe can play, in its relationship with the global south, beyond the competition between the US and China – Theodore Murphy écrit, pour l’ECFR, sur le rôle que l’Europe peut jouer dans ses relations avec le Sud, au-delà de la concurrence entre les États-Unis et la Chine – Neither America nor China: How Europeans can shape a new order with the global south | ECFR
Georgia
Alexander Atasuntsev scrive della Georgia “sospesa” tra Mosca e l’Occidente – Alexander Atasuntsev writes about Georgia “suspended” between Moscow and the West – Alexander Atasuntsev parle de la Géorgie “suspendue” entre Moscou et l’Occident – How Far Will the Thaw in Russia-Georgia Relations Extend? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Iran
Luciano Zaccara scrive, per Elcano Royal Institute, sulle proteste che hanno percorso la storia recente dell’Iran, fino alle ultime – Luciano Zaccara writes, for the Elcano Royal Institute, on the protests that have run through Iran’s recent history, up to the latest – Luciano Zaccara écrit, pour l’ Elcano ROyal Institute, sur les manifestations qui ont marqué l’histoire récente de l’Iran, jusqu’à aujourd’hui – Quo Vadis Iran? The future of the Islamic Republic after the protests started in 2022 – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
Iran – Russia – Oceano Indiano
Vali Kaleji scrive, per Valdai Discussion Club, dell’importanza del porto di Chabahar, unico punto iraniano di accesso diretto nell’oceano Indiano, fondamentale per l’ International North–South Transport Corridor – Vali Kaleji writes, for Valdai Discussion Club, about the importance of the port of Chabahar, Iran’s only direct access point into the Indian Ocean, crucial for the International North-South Transport Corridor – Vali Kaleji écrit, pour le Valdai Discussion Club, sur l’importance du port de Chabahar, seul point d’accès direct de l’Iran à l’océan Indien, crucial pour le International North–South Transport Corridor – Chabahar Port Transit Project: The Eastern Wing of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) — Valdai Club
Syria – Arab League
Daniel R DePetris scrive, per RUSI, sulle ragioni alla base del ritorno della Siria nella Lega Araba – Daniel R DePetris writes, for RUSI, on the reasons behind Syria’s return to the Arab League – Daniel R DePetris écrit, pour RUSI, sur les raisons du retour de la Syrie au sein de la Ligue arabe – The West and its Arab Partners are Heading for a Collision on Syria Policy | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Qutaiba Idlbi scrive, per Atlantic Council, sul ritorno (contrastato) della Siria nella Lega Araba. Cosa dovrebbe fare Assad in cambio ? – Qutaiba Idlbi writes for Atlantic Council about Syria’s (thwarted) return to the Arab League. What should Assad do in return? – Qutaiba Idlbi écrit pour Atlantic Council sur le retour (contrarié) de la Syrie au sein de la Ligue arabe. Que devrait faire Assad en retour ? – Can Arab League states ‘get something’ for readmitting Assad? – Atlantic Council
Turkey
Ziya Meral scrive, per RUSI, del primo turno delle elezioni in Turchia e approfondisce lo scenario politico futuro. Da osservare l’affermazione del candidato indipendente ultranazionalista Sinan Ogan – Ziya Meral writes for RUSI about the first round of elections in Turkey and delves into the political scenario ahead. The affirmation of the ultranationalist independent candidate Sinan Ogan should be noted – Ziya Meral écrit pour RUSI sur le premier tour des élections en Turquie et se penche sur le scénario politique à venir. L’affirmation du candidat indépendant ultranationaliste Sinan Ogan est à noter – Turkish Elections: What’s Next? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA
Nick Childs scrive, per l’International Institute for Strategic Studies, dell’annuncio da parte degli USA del sottomarino a propulsione nucleare USS Florida nel canale di Suez. Si tratta di un esempio di comunicazione di deterrenza – Nick Childs writes for the International Institute for Strategic Studies about the US announcement of the nuclear-powered submarine USS Florida in the Suez Canal. This is an example of deterrence communication – Nick Childs écrit pour le International Institute for Strategic Studies à propos de l’annonce par les États-Unis de la présence du sous-marin à propulsion nucléaire USS Florida dans le canal de Suez. Il s’agit d’un exemple de communication dissuasive – Submarines surface in more overt deterrence role (iiss.org)
Chris Chivvis scrive della forte polarizzazione politica negli USA e delle possibili conseguenze sul ruolo globale di Washington – Chris Chivvis writes about the strong political polarisation in the US and the possible consequences for Washington’s global role – Chris Chivvis s’intéresse à la forte polarisation politique aux États-Unis et aux conséquences possibles pour le rôle mondial de Washington – Washington’s Domestic Drama Is Threatening Its Global Leadership – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
USA – Ukraine
Jonathan Masters e Will Merrow scrivono, per Council on Foreign Relations, che gli USA hanno finora destinato all’Ucraina circa 75 miliardi di dollari di aiuti – Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow write for Council on Foreign Relations that the US has so far allocated some $75 billion in aid to Ukraine – Jonathan Masters et Will Merrow écrivent pour le Council on Foreign Relations que les États-Unis ont jusqu’à présent alloué quelque 75 milliards de dollars d’aide à l’Ukraine – How Much Aid Has the U.S. Sent Ukraine? Here Are Six Charts. | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
War in Ukraine
Un rapporto di RUSI, a cura di Jack Watling e Nick Reynolds, esamina come le forze russe hanno adattato le loro tattiche nel conflitto ucraino e le sfide che questo ha creato per le forze armate di Kiev – A report by RUSI, edited by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, examines how Russian forces adapted their tactics in the Ukrainian conflict and the challenges this created for Kiev’s armed forces – Un rapport du RUSI, édité par Jack Watling et Nick Reynolds, examine comment les forces russes ont adapté leurs tactiques dans le conflit ukrainien et les défis que cela a créé pour les forces armées de Kiev – Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of Its Invasion of Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Global topics
Artificial Intelligence
Nestor Maslej scrive, per CIGI, come l’IA sia diventata parte della nostra vita quotidiana e come occorra avere un atteggiamento critico – Nestor Maslej writes, for CIGI, how AI has become part of our daily lives and how we need to have a critical attitude – Nestor Maslej écrit, pour le CIGI, comment l’IA fait désormais partie de notre vie quotidienne et comment nous devons adopter une attitude critique – With AI Evolving at Lightning Speed, It’s Time to Take Stock – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
Branka Marijan scrive, per CIGI, dell’utilizzo dell’IA in ambito militare – Branka Marijan writes for CIGI about the use of AI in the military – Branka Marijan écrit pour le CIGI sur l’utilisation de l’IA dans l’armée – AI-Guided Weapons Must Be Curbed by Global Rules — and Soon – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
Robert Diab per CIGI scrive delle frontiere dell’IA generativa, tra complessità e necessità di regolazione – Robert Diab for CIGI writes about the frontiers of generative AI, between complexity and the need for regulation – Robert Diab pour le CIGI écrit sur les frontières de l’IA générative, entre complexité et besoin de régulation – Are AI Language Models Too Dangerous to Deploy? Who Can Tell? – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
Global Order
Francis Ghilès scrive, per CIDOB, dei diversi approcci alla guerra in Ucraina. Sullo sfondo, la trasformazione dell’ordine mondiale – Francis Ghilès scrive, per CIDOB, dei diversi approcci alla guerra in Ucraina. Sullo sfondo, la trasformazione dell’ordine mondiale – Francis Ghilès écrit pour le CIDOB sur les différentes approches de la guerre en Ukraine. En toile de fond, la transformation de l’ordre mondial – CIDOB – Global South does not buy western stance on Ukraine
G7
Gli esperti di Brookings riflettono sul G7 in corso in Giappone – Brookings experts reflect on the ongoing G7 in Japan – Les experts de Brookings se penchent sur le G7 en cours au Japon – Around the halls: Japan hosts the G-7 summit (brookings.edu)
Tech and Democracy
Adam Fejerskov e Trine Rosengren Pejstrup per DIIS scrivono dell’iniziativa “Tech for Democracy” del governo danese – Adam Fejerskov and Trine Rosengren Pejstrup for DIIS write about the Danish government’s ‘Tech for Democracy’ initiative – Adam Fejerskov et Trine Rosengren Pejstrup, pour le DIIS, s’intéressent à l’initiative “Tech for Democracy” du gouvernement danois – Tech for Democracy: Learnings from the Year of Action | DIIS
The Science of Where
Una riflessione sul ‘digital twin’, frontiera della tecnologia con approccio geografico – A reflection on the ‘digital twin’, the frontier of technology with a geographical approach – Une réflexion sur le “digital twin”, la frontière de la technologie avec une approche géographique – DIGITAL TWIN NEL FUTURO GIA’ PRESENTE. DOPO LA CONFERENZA 2023 DI ESRI ITALIA – The Science of Where Magazine
In un evento di RUSI, James Byrne e Will Marshall discutono del ruolo sempre più strategico delle immagini e delle informazioni geospaziali – At a RUSI event, James Byrne and Will Marshall discuss the increasingly strategic role of geospatial imagery and information – Lors d’un événement organisé par le RUSI, James Byrne et Will Marshall discutent du rôle de plus en plus stratégique de l’imagerie et de l’information géospatiales – Recording: Global Transparency and the Future of Open Source Geospatial Intelligence | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
