Prospettive dai think tank – Perspectives from think tanks – Perspectives des think tanks
Topics
Artificial Intelligence
Un’interessante e informata riflessione di Marie Lamensch (Centre for International Governance Innovation) pone il problema delle disuguaglianze di genere nella produzione dell’intelligenza artificiale generativa – An interesting and informed reflection by Marie Lamensch (Centre for International Governance Innovation) raises the issue of gender inequalities in the production of generative artificial intelligence – Une réflexion intéressante et informée de Marie Lamensch (Centre for International Governance Innovation) soulève la question des inégalités de genre dans la production d’intelligence artificielle générative – Generative AI Tools Are Perpetuating Harmful Gender Stereotypes – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
Cybersecurity
Neil Desai (Centre for International Governance Innovation) si domanda se il settore tecnologico abbia rispettato adeguatamente il suo contratto sociale – Neil Desai (Centre for International Governance Innovation) questions whether the technology sector has adequately fulfilled its social contract – Neil Desai (Centre for International Governance Innovation) se demande si le secteur technologique a bien rempli son contrat social – When It Comes to Cybercrime, the Medium Makes Us Vulnerable – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
Systemic Sustainability – Global Health
Un report del think tank Brookings (a cura di Belinda Archibong, Francis Annan, Uche Ekhator-Mobayodein) analizza come le epidemie di malattie infettive influenzano lo sviluppo del capitale umano e il ruolo delle istituzioni di governance globale nel mitigare gli impatti – A Brookings think tank report (by Belinda Archibong, Francis Annan, Uche Ekhator-Mobayodein) analyses how infectious disease outbreaks affect human capital development and the role of global governance institutions in mitigating impacts – Un rapport du think tank Brookings (par Belinda Archibong, Francis Annan, Uche Ekhator-Mobayodein) analyse la manière dont les épidémies de maladies infectieuses affectent le développement du capital humain et le rôle des institutions de gouvernance mondiale dans l’atténuation des impacts – The epidemic effect: Epidemics, institutions, and human capital development (brookings.edu)
Systemic Sustainability – Multipolar World
Andrey Bystritskiy (Valdai Discussion Club) sostiene che sta emergendo una nuova connettività mondiale, nuovo sistema di interdipendenza, la cui regolamentazione dovrà essere costruita sui principi di uguaglianza e apertura e sulla fiducia costruttiva reciproca. Nessun Paese escluso, nota l’Autore – Andrey Bystritskiy (Valdai Discussion Club) argues that a new world connectivity is emerging, a new system of interdependence, the regulation of which will have to be built on the principles of equality and openness and on constructive mutual trust. No country excluded, notes the author – Andrey Bystritskiy (Valdai Discussion Club) affirme qu’une nouvelle connectivité mondiale est en train d’émerger, un nouveau système d’interdépendance dont la régulation devra être fondée sur les principes d’égalité et d’ouverture et sur une confiance mutuelle constructive. Aucun pays n’est exclu, note l’auteur – New Connectivity — Valdai Club
Worlds
Afghanistan
Antonio Giustozzi (RUSI) scrive che i Talebani devono sviluppare una strategia antiterrorismo. Lo Stato Islamico nel Khorasan si è scagliato contro i Talebani, richiamando l’attenzione sulla complessità del radicamento nel tessuto sociale dell’Afghanistan – Antonio Giustozzi (RUSI) writes that the Taliban must develop a counter-terrorism strategy. The Islamic State in Khorasan has lashed out at the Taliban, drawing attention to the complexity of its entrenchment in the social fabric of Afghanistan – Antonio Giustozzi (RUSI) écrit que les Talibans doivent développer une stratégie de lutte contre le terrorisme. L’État islamique de Khorasan s’en est pris aux talibans, attirant l’attention sur la complexité de son enracinement dans le tissu social de l’Afghanistan – The Islamic State and the Taliban’s Counter-terrorism | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Belarus
Grigory Ioff (The Jamestown Foundation) scrive della complessità della situazione in Bielorussia, delle contraddizioni delle opposizioni e dei rapporti possibili con l’alleato di Vladimir Putin – Grigory Ioff (The Jamestown Foundation) writes about the complexity of the situation in Belarus, the contradictions of the oppositions and possible relations with Vladimir Putin’s ally – Grigory Ioff (The Jamestown Foundation) parle de la complexité de la situation au Belarus, des contradictions de l’opposition et des relations possibles avec l’allié de Vladimir Poutine – Belarus Policy Lesson? Pursuing Geo-Strategic Interests May Be More Productive Than Direct Democracy Promotion – Jamestown
Europe – Tunisia
Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Europe) sottolinea il ruolo (insufficiente) dell’Europa rispetto alla questione tunisina e, più in generale, rispetto a un contesto mediterraneo sempre più sensibile – Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Europe) emphasises Europe’s (insufficient) role with respect to the Tunisian issue and, more generally, with respect to an increasingly sensitive Mediterranean context – Judy Dempsey (Carnegie Europe) souligne le rôle (insuffisant) de l’Europe dans le dossier tunisien et, plus généralement, dans un contexte méditerranéen de plus en plus sensible – Europe Props Up Tunisia’s Undemocratic Status Quo – Carnegie Europe – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Germany
Esperti del think tank Atlantic Council discutono della prima strategia di sicurezza nazionale di Olaf Scholz che conferma la Zeitenwende, svolta storica, di Berlino – Experts from the think tank Atlantic Council discuss Olaf Scholz’s first national security strategy that confirms Berlin’s Zeitenwende, historic turning point – Des experts du think tank Atlantic Council discutent de la première stratégie de sécurité nationale d’Olaf Scholz, qui confirme le Zeitenwende, le tournant historique de Berlin – The hits and misses in Germany’s new national security strategy – Atlantic Council
India
PK Khup Hangzo (VIF) scrive della scoperta di un giacimento di 5,9 milioni di tonnellate di litio nel territorio dell’Unione di Jammu e Kashmir. E’ chiara l’importanza del litio per la transizione energetica dell’India ma lo sfruttamento del giacimento potrebbe comportare problemi per le comunità locali – PK Khup Hangzo (VIF) writes about the discovery of a 5.9 million tonne lithium deposit in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The importance of lithium for India’s energy transition is clear, but the exploitation of the deposit could pose problems for local communities – PK Khup Hangzo (VIF) parle de la découverte d’un gisement de lithium de 5,9 millions de tonnes dans le territoire de l’Union de Jammu et du Cachemire. L’importance du lithium pour la transition énergétique de l’Inde est évidente, mais l’exploitation du gisement pourrait entraîner des problèmes pour les communautés locales – India’s Lithium Discovery: A Game Changer for a Clean Energy Future? | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
India – Germany
Harsh V. Pant (ORF) scrive sull’importanza del rafforzamento della partnership strategica tra India e Germania, particolarmente in una fase geopolitica turbolenta, passando dai sottomarini – Harsh V. Pant (ORF) writes about the importance of strengthening the strategic partnership between India and Germany, particularly in a turbulent geopolitical phase, moving from submarines – Harsh V. Pant (ORF) écrit sur l’importance de renforcer le partenariat stratégique entre l’Inde et l’Allemagne, en particulier dans une phase géopolitique turbulente, en passant des sous-marins – An Indo-German realignment with submarines in the mix | ORF (orfonline.org)
Iran
The daily report from the ISW think tank – Iran Update, June 14, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Mexico
Ryan C. Berg ed Emiliano Polo (CSIS) scrivono delle elezioni del 4 giugno nello State of Mexico (SoM) e Coahuila. Nel SoM, Morena, il partito al potere, ha sconfitto il controllo dell’International Revolutionary Party che governava da 94 anni. Guardando alle elezioni presidenziali del 2024 – Ryan C. Berg and Emiliano Polo (CSIS) write about the 4 June elections in the State of Mexico (SoM) and Coahuila. In SoM, Morena, the ruling party, defeated the controlling International Revolutionary Party, which had ruled for 94 years. Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential elections – Ryan C. Berg et Emiliano Polo (CSIS) écrivent sur les élections du 4 juin dans le State of Mexico (SoM) et à Coahuila. Dans SoM, Morena, le parti au pouvoir, a battu le International Revolutionary Party, qui était au pouvoir depuis 94 ans. Perspectives pour les élections présidentielles de 2024 – Three Takeaways from Mexico’s New Local Political Landscape (csis.org)
Middle East – China – Russia
Samuel Ramani (Middle East Institute) scrive che il 28 maggio si è riunito, in Cina, il gruppo di lavoro sugli affari mediorientali dei ministero degli Esteri russo e cinese. L’obiettivo è maggiore coordinamento e cooperazione – Samuel Ramani (Middle East Institute) writes that on 28 May, the working group on Middle East affairs of the Russian and Chinese foreign ministries met in China. The aim is greater coordination and cooperation – Samuel Ramani (Middle East Institute) écrit que le 28 mai, le groupe de travail sur les affaires du Moyen-Orient des ministères des affaires étrangères russe et chinois s’est réuni en Chine. L’objectif est de renforcer la coordination et la coopération – The potential and limitations of Russia-China cooperation in the Middle East | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Northern Ireland
Isabella Antinozzi e Trevor Taylor (RUSI) scrivono che, nell’ambito della strategia di difesa del Regno Unito, occorre sfruttare il potenziale dell’Irlanda del Nord – Isabella Antinozzi and Trevor Taylor (RUSI) write that, as part of the UK’s defence strategy, Northern Ireland’s potential should be exploited – Isabella Antinozzi et Trevor Taylor (RUSI) écrivent que, dans le cadre de la stratégie de défense du Royaume-Uni, le potentiel de l’Irlande du Nord devrait être exploité – The Defence Industry in Northern Ireland: Leveraging Untapped Potential | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Northern Kosovo
Olga Oliker e Marko Prelec (Crisis Group) discutono delle tensioni nel nord del Kosovo, delle prospettive di normalizzazione tra Belgrado e Pristina e della possibile escalation – Olga Oliker and Marko Prelec (Crisis Group) discuss the tensions in northern Kosovo, the prospects for normalisation between Belgrade and Pristina, and possible escalation – Olga Oliker et Marko Prelec (Crisis Group) discutent des tensions dans le nord du Kosovo, des perspectives de normalisation entre Belgrade et Pristina et de l’escalade possible – Escalation in Northern Kosovo: Causes, Dangers and Prospects | Crisis Group
Pakistan – China – India
Kartik Bommakanti (ORF) scrive della partnership resiliente tra Islamabad, in profonda crisi, e Pechino. Il ruolo dell’India – Kartik Bommakanti (ORF) writes about the resilient partnership between Islamabad, in deep crisis, and Beijing. India’s role – Kartik Bommakanti (ORF) écrit sur le partenariat résistant entre Islamabad, en crise profonde, et Pékin. Le rôle de l’Inde – The collusive threat: Chinese and Pakistani cooperation in strategic capabilities | ORF (orfonline.org)
Russia
Andrei Kolesnikov (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) traccia un ritratto di Yevgeny Prigozhin, definendolo come populista anti-élitario e prodotto dell’identità transitoria dei russi – Andrei Kolesnikov (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) draws a portrait of Yevgeny Prigozhin, describing him as an anti-elitist populist and a product of the transient identity of Russians – Andrei Kolesnikov (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) dresse le portrait d’Evgeny Prigozhin, le décrivant comme un populiste anti-élitiste et un produit de l’identité éphémère des Russes – Is There a Future in Politics for Russia’s Wagner Boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin? – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Serbia – Kosovo – USA – Europe
Margarita Assenova (The Jamestown Foundation) analizza la situazione dei delicati rapporti tra Belgrado e Pristina e sostiene che la politica occidentale nei Balcani stia fallendo. Secondo l’Autrice, gli Stati Uniti e l’Unione Europea hanno messo in atto una politica balcanica centrata su Belgrado, indipendentemente dalla leadership nazionalista della Serbia, che rappresenta un pericolo crescente per diversi Stati balcanici, tra cui Kosovo, Montenegro e Bosnia-Erzegovina – Margarita Assenova (The Jamestown Foundation) analyses the situation of the delicate relations between Belgrade and Pristina and argues that Western policy in the Balkans is failing. According to the author, the United States and the European Union have implemented a Belgrade-centred Balkan policy, regardless of Serbia’s nationalist leadership, which poses a growing danger to several Balkan states, including Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia-Herzegovina – Margarita Assenova (The Jamestown Foundation) analyse la situation des relations délicates entre Belgrade et Pristina et affirme que la politique occidentale dans les Balkans est en train d’échouer. Selon l’auteur, les États-Unis et l’Union européenne ont mis en œuvre une politique balkanique centrée sur Belgrade, sans tenir compte du leadership nationaliste de la Serbie, ce qui représente un danger croissant pour plusieurs États des Balkans, dont le Kosovo, le Monténégro et la Bosnie-Herzégovine – Western Appeasement of Serbia Repeats Policy Mistakes Regarding Russia – Jamestown
Sudan
II think tank ISPI analizza gli scontri in corso in Sudan nel rischio di un allargamento al Darfur e all’intero Paese. Secondo il Sindacato Nazionale dei Medici ci sarebbero stati, da metà aprile a oggi, più di 860 morti e più di 6mila feriti – The ISPI think tank analyses the ongoing clashes in Sudan at the risk of spreading to Darfur and the whole country. According to the National Union of Doctors there have been more than 860 dead and more than 6,000 injured since mid-April – Le think tank ISPI analyse les affrontements en cours au Soudan qui risquent de s’étendre au Darfour et à l’ensemble du pays. Selon l’Union nationale des médecins, on dénombre plus de 860 morts et plus de 6 000 blessés depuis la mi-avril – La guerra in Sudan e i demoni del Darfur | ISPI (ispionline.it)
Turkey
Efrat Aviv (BESA Center) scrive che la discriminante per Erdogan sarà la tenuta dell’economia – Efrat Aviv (BESA Center) writes that the discriminating factor for Erdogan will be the economy’s resilience – Efrat Aviv (BESA Centre) écrit que le facteur discriminant pour Erdogan sera la résilience de l’économie – The Secret of Erdoğan’s Success (besacenter.org)
UK – Sudan
Simon Rynn and Michael Jones (RUSI) scrivono un paper sull’evoluzione dell’impegno dell’UK in Sudan dal 2015 a oggi – Simon Rynn and Michael Jones (RUSI) write a paper on the evolution of UK engagement in Sudan from 2015 to the present – Simon Rynn et Michael Jones (RUSI) écrivent un article sur l’évolution de l’engagement du Royaume-Uni au Soudan de 2015 à aujourd’hui – Deal or No Deal? An Appraisal of UK Engagement in Sudan | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA
Un rapporto del think tank CSIS (a cura di Conor M. Savoy) riflette sulle politiche di ‘shoring strategico’ da parte degli gli USA. In tale prospettiva, l’utilizzo degli aiuti esteri e dei finanziamenti allo sviluppo può offrire uno scenario vantaggioso per Washington, grazie a catene di approvvigionamento più resistenti, e fornire benefici economici ai Paesi in via di sviluppo – A report by the think tank CSIS (edited by Conor M. Savoy) reflects on US ‘strategic shoring’ policies. In this perspective, the use of foreign aid and development finance can offer a win-win scenario for Washington, thanks to more resilient supply chains, and provide economic benefits to developing countries – Un rapport du think tank CSIS (édité par Conor M. Savoy) se penche sur les politiques américaines de ‘strategic shoring’. Dans cette perspective, l’utilisation de l’aide étrangère et du financement du développement peut offrir un scénario gagnant-gagnant pour Washington, grâce à des chaînes d’approvisionnement plus résistantes, et procurer des avantages économiques aux pays en développement – The Promise of Strategic Shoring: Supply Chain Resilience, Economic Growth, and Development Finance (csis.org)
Sean Kates, Jonathan Ladd e Joshua A. Tucker (Brookings) si domandano in che modo l’aumento della dipendenza tecnologica nell’era della pandemia abbia influenzato l’opinione delle persone sulla tecnologia stessa – Sean Kates, Jonathan Ladd and Joshua A. Tucker (Brookings) question how increased technological dependence in the pandemic era has affected people’s views on technology itself – Sean Kates, Jonathan Ladd et Joshua A. Tucker (Brookings) s’interrogent sur la manière dont la dépendance technologique accrue à l’ère de la pandémie a affecté l’opinion des gens sur la technologie elle-même – How Americans’ confidence in technology firms has dropped: evidence from the second wave of the American Institutional Confidence poll (brookings.edu)
Robert Soofer (Atlantic Council) scrive che l’amministrazione USA deve raggiungere un accordo con il Congresso prima di iniziare trattative sul controllo degli armamenti – Robert Soofer (Atlantic Council) writes that the US administration must reach an agreement with Congress before starting arms control negotiations – Robert Soofer (Atlantic Council) écrit que l’administration américaine doit parvenir à un accord avec le Congrès avant d’entamer des négociations sur le contrôle des armes – Before embarking on arms control talks, Biden needs a nuclear deal with Congress – Atlantic Council
USA – Africa
Witney Schneidman e Gracelin Baskaran (Brookings) scrivono dell’importanza della diplomazia commerciale per invertire la tendenza declinante degli investimenti privati americani in Africa – Witney Schneidman and Gracelin Baskaran (Brookings) write about the importance of trade diplomacy in reversing the declining trend of US private investment in Africa – Witney Schneidman et Gracelin Baskaran (Brookings) écrivent sur l’importance de la diplomatie commerciale pour inverser la tendance à la baisse des investissements privés américains en Afrique – How to drive US investment to Africa (brookings.edu)
USA – Asia
Ryan Hass (Brookings – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune) scrive sulla leadership degli USA (e alleati) in Asia e sottolinea l’importanza di lavorare efficacemente su investimenti che favoriscano lo sviluppo economico, accelerino la transizione verso l’energia pulita, sostengano la mitigazione e l’adattamento al clima, migliorino la salute pubblica e amplino l’accesso all’istruzione – Ryan Hass (Brookings – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune) writes about US (and allied) leadership in Asia and emphasises the importance of working effectively on investments that foster economic development, accelerate the transition to clean energy, support climate mitigation and adaptation, improve public health and expand access to education – Ryan Hass (Brookings – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune) écrit sur le leadership des États-Unis (et de leurs alliés) en Asie et souligne l’importance de travailler efficacement sur les investissements qui favorisent le développement économique, accélèrent la transition vers l’énergie propre, soutiennent l’atténuation et l’adaptation au climat, améliorent la santé publique et élargissent l’accès à l’éducation – The New Great Game for Leadership in Asia – The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune (jstribune.com)
Esperti del think tank Brookings scrivono della necessità di aggiornare la strategia USA in Asia, particolarmente sulle questioni commerciali – Brookings think tank experts write about the need to update US strategy in Asia, particularly on trade issues – Les experts du think tank Brookings s’expriment sur la nécessité d’actualiser la stratégie américaine en Asie, en particulier sur les questions commerciales – Updating America’s Asia strategy (brookings.edu)
USA – China
Cheng Li e Xiuye Zhao (Brookings) scrivono della scelta strategica sia per Washington che per Pechino: o collaborare per facilitare la transizione a basse emissioni di carbonio o disaccoppiarsi in nome della competizione. Gli Autori, dopo il disaccoppiamento dell’industria dei semiconduttori, sostengono che entrambi i contendenti – sul tema della produzione di energia rinnovabile – soppesino costi e benefici prima di prendere decisioni portate dagli impulsi geopolitici – Cheng Li and Xiuye Zhao (Brookings) write about the strategic choice for both Washington and Beijing: either work together to facilitate the low-carbon transition or decouple in the name of competition. The authors, following the decoupling of the semiconductor industry, argue that both contenders – on the issue of renewable energy production – weigh costs and benefits before making decisions driven by geopolitical impulses – Cheng Li et Xiuye Zhao (Brookings) écrivent sur le choix stratégique qui s’offre à Washington et à Pékin : collaborer pour faciliter la transition vers une économie à faibles émissions de carbone ou se découpler au nom de la concurrence. Les auteurs, s’inspirant du découplage de l’industrie des semi-conducteurs, soutiennent que les deux concurrents – sur la question de la production d’énergie renouvelable – pèsent les coûts et les avantages avant de prendre des décisions dictées par des impulsions géopolitiques – Renewable energy should not be the next semiconductor in US-China competition (brookings.edu)
War in Ukraine
The daily report from the ISW think tank – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Denis Volkov (Levada Center) sostiene che, a maggio, il numero di cittadini russi favorevoli al proseguimento della guerra in Ucraina è aumentato considerevolmente, superando di poco coloro che sono favorevoli a colloqui di pace – Denis Volkov (Levada Centre) claims that, in May, the number of Russian citizens in favour of the continuation of the war in Ukraine increased considerably, slightly exceeding those in favour of peace talks – Denis Volkov (Levada Center) affirme qu’en mai, le nombre de citoyens russes favorables à la poursuite de la guerre en Ukraine a considérablement augmenté, dépassant légèrement celui des citoyens favorables à des pourparlers de paix – Levada-Center : No End in Sight: Why Russians Do Not Expect the Conflict in Ukraine to End Anytime Soon
Greg Mills (RUSI) sostiene che, per poter arrivare a colloqui di pace, l’Ucraina deve vincere militarmente sul campo – Greg Mills (RUSI) argues that in order to reach peace talks, Ukraine must win militarily on the ground – Greg Mills (RUSI) estime que pour parvenir à des pourparlers de paix, l’Ukraine doit remporter une victoire militaire sur le terrain – David Fells Goliath, Then There’ll be Talks: How Ukraine Can Win | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Emily Ferris (RUSI) scrive sulla vulnerabilità del Sud della Russia – Emily Ferris (RUSI) writes about the vulnerability of Southern Russia – Emily Ferris (RUSI) parle de la vulnérabilité de la Russie méridionale – A Tale of Two Cities: Russia’s Vulnerable South is Left to its Own Devices | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
West Africa
Un paper del think tank Middle East Institute analizza l’incremento della minaccia intercomunale nella regione del Sahel, in Africa Occidentale. E’ una delle principali minacce alla sicurezza e alla stabilità socio-politica della regione – A paper by the think tank Middle East Institute analyses the rise of the intercommunal threat in the Sahel region of West Africa. It is one of the main threats to security and socio-political stability in the region – Un document du think tank Middle East Institute analyse la montée de la menace intercommunautaire dans la région du Sahel, en Afrique de l’Ouest. Il s’agit de l’une des principales menaces pour la sécurité et la stabilité sociopolitique de la région – The Risk of Violent Inter-Communal Spillover in West Africa: Realities and Prescriptions | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Published analyses do not necessarily correspond to the strategic line of The Global Eye
