LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Perspectives
1 – (Doreen Horschig – Lawfare) The nuclear nonproliferation regime—the set of international agreements, institutions, and norms that have provided transparency about nuclear weapons capabilities, managed escalation risks, and deterred the development of nuclear weapons by non-nuclear states—is in crisis
Reinforcing the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
2 – (Jessica West – CIGI) bOuter space has long been the stuff of militaristic dreams — a proverbial “high ground” that enables world dominance. Such visions have included a wide range of weapons, from nuclear weapons orbiting the Earth, to kinetic bombardment with tungsten poles, pellet clouds, high-energy lasers and anti-ballistic missile interceptors in space
Climate Action
(Jessica McKenzie – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) There is a broad consensus that the impacts of climate change are not experienced equally. According to the World Bank, “The poorest and most vulnerable people bear the brunt of climate change impacts yet contribute the least to the crisis.” Versions of this sentence are practically boilerplate in many articles about the climate crisis
Inequality is a climate problem – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (thebulletin.org)
AGOA – USA – China
(Gracelin Baskaran – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is a unilateral trade preference program that was enacted by President Bill Clinton in 2000. By adding a critical minerals agreement to the AGOA reauthorization, U.S. Congress can incentivize non-Chinese investments in both mining and processing in eligible African countries, which have key reserves of the minerals it has long turned to China for
Adding a Critical Minerals Agreement to the AGOA Reauthorization (csis.org)
Australia – India – Indo Pacific
(Justin Bassi – ASPI The Strategist) As 2024 gets underway, the combined threats of Russia, Iran and China (and to a lesser extent, North Korea) will continue to dominate and destabilise international security, with the key question being how democratic countries respond. The answer needs to be that they will respond proactively and collectively. For Australia and stability in the Indo-Pacific, one of the most significant geo-strategic trends is India’s emergence as a global player and its converging alignment with the strategic interests of democratic counterparts, in particular its Quad partners
Australia – Southeast Asia
(Alexander Lee – Lowy The Interpreter) Too often in recent Australian domestic politics, Southeast Asia has been seen through a distinctly Cold War 2.0 lens. All actions undertaken by ASEAN member states are seen as being connected to the balance of power between China and the United States
Southeast Asia is the blessing Australia overlooks | Lowy Institute
China – Russia
(Council on Foreign Relations) Thomas Graham and Zongyuan Zoe Liu lead the conversation on China-Russia relations
Academic Webinar: China-Russia Relations | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Germany
(Daniela Schwarzer – ASPI The Strategist) For years, German foreign policy was rarely a domain of fierce debate over fundamentally different alternatives. Since reunification (1989-91), Europe’s largest country and strongest economy has defined its foreign policy in terms of European and transatlantic relations, implying ever-deeper anchoring within the European Union and NATO
Germany’s dangerous alternatives | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Indonesia – Vietnam
(Trang Nguyen – Lowy The Interpreter) A year after announcing Just Energy Transition Partnerships, Indonesia and Vietnam were back at COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, with investment plans to bring the partnerships to life. The investment plans for Vietnam and Indonesia share a common challenge: insufficient public finance to catalyse large-scale private investment
One year into the Indonesia and Vietnam’s Just Energy Transition Partnerships | Lowy Institute
Israel
(Emily O. Goldman – Lawfare) Review of “Israel and the Cyber Threat: How the Startup Nation Became a Global Cyber Power” by Charles D. Freilich, Matthew S. Cohen, and Gabi Sabonoi
Lessons From Israel’s Rise as a Cyber Power | Lawfare (lawfaremedia.org)
Near East
1 – (Atlantic Council) Prepare for round two. On Sunday, John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said that US strikes over the weekend in Iraq and Syria were “just the first round” in response to the January 28 killing of three US servicemembers in a drone attack in Jordan. So what message is the United States sending to Iran and other countries in the region with its ongoing response? And what’s coming next?
2 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Following the drone strike on a U.S. base in Jordan, experts discuss the possibility of a U.S. military response as well as the implications of conflict spreading in the region
Russia
(Brad W. Setser – Council on Foreign Relations) A note on the debate over the use of Russia’s frozen reserves
Mobilizing Russia’s Immobilized Reserves | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA
(Hanna Love, Tracy Hadden Loh – Brookings) Last month, volunteers across the United States braved frigid temperatures to conduct the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s annual point-in-time count, which tallies the number of people experiencing homelessness in a community. As the numbers are added up, it’s important to ask: What is the nation learning from this data? And more importantly, how are local leaders using it to craft more effective and humane homelessness policies?
Despite a national spike in homelessness, some US regions are finding solutions | Brookings
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
