LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Perspectives
1 – (Roger W. Ferguson Jr., Jonas O. Piduhn – Council on Foreign Relations) Germans and Americans are pessimistic about their economies. While the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve remain committed to fighting inflation, the ECB faces a much tougher task
2 – (Center for Strategic & International Studies) The last two years have witnessed significant global developments that brought geopolitics back to center stage and exacerbated global divisions. The CSIS 2024 Global Forecast—A World Dividing—offers insights from dozens of CSIS scholars on the most urgent questions for the year ahead around security, technology, geoeconomics, alliances, and regional influence
CSIS Global Forecast: Conflict Zones
Africa
(Ebenezer Obadare, Reina Patel – Council on Foreign Relations) Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have left the most important West African regional bloc due to escalating tensions over their democratic decline, leaving room for Russia to assert itself in the region
ECOWAS Split Spells Trouble for Democracy in West Africa | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Artificial Intelligence
(Yolanda Botti-Lodovico, Vilas Dhar – ASPI The Strategist) The start of 2024 has been marked by a wave of predictions regarding the trajectory of artificial intelligence, ranging from optimistic to cautious. Nevertheless, a clear consensus has emerged: AI is already reshaping human experience. To keep up, humanity must evolve
Will 2024 be the year of responsible AI? | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
AUKUS
(Bronte Munro, Gregory Brown, Nishank Motwani – ASPI The Strategist) AUKUS is more than the exquisite capability of submarines. It is an agreement on values that will defend the three partners, the US, UK and Australia, and their regions from the destabilising forces of rising authoritarianism
Tapping the private sector to unlock AUKUS | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Pacific
(Sophie Hamel – ASPI The Strategist) Australia’s support for the deployment of international fibre-optic cables in the South Pacific is a relatively recent development. Prior to 2017, the Australian government’s support for digital development in Pacific island countries (PICs) was focused only on cyber capacity building and cybersecurity assistance, leaving the task of connectivity itself to the private sector and international development banks such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB)
Climate Action
(Allegra Dawes – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Voluntary carbon markets (marketplaces in which buyers voluntarily purchase and trade in offsets generated from emissions reduction or removal projects) have long been the center of a divisive debate
What’s Plaguing Voluntary Carbon Markets? (csis.org)
Indonesia
(Ronald Tundang – East Asia Forum) Though Indonesia has excelled at attracting foreign direct investment, its human capital capacity and innovation have not kept up. To meet its development goals, the country must consider renegotiating its investment conditions and securing more investment in key sectors such as the semiconductor industry, while addressing challenges including balancing public and private sector interests, and managing the potential conflicts from state-owned profit-making entities and regulators
Rethinking Indonesia’s investment policies through the lens of conditionalities | East Asia Forum
Malaysia
(Kevin Zhang – East Asia Forum) The steep reduction in jail term for Najib Razak has confirmed suspicion that Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, once seen as a reformist, has failed to bring about the crucial reforms that Malaysia urgently requires. Democratic norms have stagnated under his premiership, with recent maneuvers casting doubts on the legal institution. Despite promises for a needs-based rather than race-based affirmative action as part of economic reforms, little progress has been made. Subsidy reforms and the (re)imposition of a consumption tax remains on the horizon, with government expenditure on unsustainable footing
Myanmar
(East Asia Forum) 2023 marked a shift in the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, with the unexpected unity of armed resistance groups leading to significant defeats for the State Administration Council’s forces, prompting more global attention on what comes next. The National Unity Government and their allies are pushing for a democratic federal state without military involvement, although the question of how power and resources will be equitably shared if the conflict ends remains to be answered. ASEAN’s role in instigating engagement with the junta is increasingly important given the West’s current preoccupations on Ukraine and the Middle East
Myanmar’s political future remains cloudy as the junta wobbles | East Asia Forum
Nepal
(Sujeev Shakya – East Asia Forum) Nepal experienced political instability in 2023. Macroeconomic indicators improved and independent politicians gained traction ahead of the 2027 elections. Despite a series of major scams and ongoing issues such as increasing natural disasters, soaring emigration for education and work and growing religious conflict, there were positive developments including the registration of the country’s first same-sex marriage and a rebound in both international and domestic travel
Power struggles and scandals in Nepal’s political sphere | East Asia Forum
New Zealand
(Gary Hawke – East Asia Forum) After weeks of delays in counting special votes, New Zealand’s 2023 election saw the formation of a new three-way government coalition between the National Party, ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First. While the coalition will be guided by its inter-party agreements, there is uncertainty about its ability to navigate its differences and present a united front. New Zealand’s foreign policy stance and alignment may also be subject to change as the new government establishes its policy platform
New year, new government for New Zealand | East Asia Forum
Pakistan
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – Lowy The Interpreter) With the Pakistan general elections due to take place on Thursday, the country’s former prime minister Imran Khan has been sentenced to ten years in jail by one court and 14 years by another. The verdicts in both cases mean that Khan has been disqualified from contesting elections for the next five to seven years
Pakistan elections: Conspiracy theories, plots, and sidelines | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Casey Michel – Atlantic Council) Imagine Russia in 2030. Will it resemble today’s imperial kleptocracy? Will it be a Western-style democracy? Will the Russian Federation exist at all? As Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine continues, the questions of what comes next have never been more pertinent
Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s future – Atlantic Council
Taiwan
1 – (Shelley Rigger – Brookings) It’s natural for people to ask who won Taiwan’s presidential and legislative elections on January 13, but the reality is that everyone won—and everyone lost
Taiwan’s 2024 elections: Everyone’s a winner—and a loser | Brookings
2 – (Yves Tiberghien, Chung-min Tsai – East Asia Forum) The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan, led by Vice President Lai Ching-te, won the presidential elections despite economic and geopolitical pressures, though not by the landslide the DPP may have hoped for. The outcome of Taiwan’s vote showcases a balanced electorate with a divided government between the presidency and parliament, resilient democratic institutions and voters, and a focus on domestic issues over security and cross-strait relations
Taiwan’s democracy triumphs | East Asia Forum
Turkey
(Rich Outzen – Atlantic Council) Turkey’s president has become a central player in world affairs by balancing competing interests. But in the conflict roiling the Middle East, he risks being left out of the game
Where Erdogan loses balance – Atlantic Council
USA
(Michael G Plummer – East Asia Forum) The US economy has proven resilient in 2023 with robust GDP growth. It seems to be headed for a ‘soft landing’ rather than the predicted recession. This has a positive impact on economies in the Asia Pacific region. But significant risks remain for 2024 including a possible fallout from monetary policy changes, fiscal dysfunction, geopolitical conflicts and the polarising US presidential election
The US economy’s soft landing | East Asia Forum
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
