LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
China
(Defense One) China launched a record 67 commercial rockets last year, second only to the United States’ 116—the vast majority for SpaceX’s Starlink. But Elon Musk isn’t the only one building a space-based network for communications, navigation, and sensing. A Nov. 23 launch from Xichang Satellite Launch Center carried a batch of satellites intended to lay the foundation for China’s own Starlink-like service.
China is building its own Starlink—even as questions surround Musk’s constellation – Defense One
NATO
(Atlantic Council) Table for thirty-two. On Monday, Hungary’s parliament ratified Sweden’s accession to NATO, the final approval needed to welcome Sweden into the Alliance. Hungary’s vote comes more than six hundred days after Sweden, in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, decided to end its long-standing nonalignment and apply to join the Alliance. There are technical details to complete: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán must sign the ratification, which he has said he will do, and Hungary must deposit its ratification instruments with the US government. But bigger questions also remain: What has this process revealed about NATO’s open-door policy? How will Sweden’s military alter the Alliance’s position in the High North? And how might Russia respond?
Red Sea
(Spencer Feingold – World Economic Forum) The Red Sea has long been a vital waterway for international trade. In recent months, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have cause major disruptions to commercial shipping. “The crisis has far-reaching economic implications, affecting global commerce and logistics,” an executive at Maersk said.
Russian war in Ukraine
1 – (Atlantic Council) On February 26, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski spoke at the Atlantic Council, where he made the case for the United States continuing its support for Ukraine.
2 – (Council of Councils) Two years into the Russia-Ukraine war, fighting along the front remains stalled. Calls for a negotiated settlement have grown, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected the possibility of ceding territory and directly negotiating with Russia, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has proven unreliable even if an agreement could be reached. War fatigue in the United States and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies is also complicating their ability to continue securing flows of military and economic aid to Ukraine. Amid this uncertainty, sixteen Council of Councils experts from thirteen countries reflect on ways to contain or end the war. The responses differ sharply in some cases, demonstrating a divided world’s approach to a complex situation. Submissions are organized into three categories: those calling for additional financial and military support for Ukraine, pathways for diplomacy and a ceasefire, and how to rethink current mindsets.
Global Perspectives on Ending the Russia-Ukraine War | Council of Councils (cfr.org)
3 – (Noah Berman – Council on Foreign Relations) The United States and its allies have imposed broad economic penalties on Russia over its war in Ukraine. As the conflict continues, experts debate whether the sanctions are working.
4 – (Heather Williams, Kelsey Hartigan, Lachlan MacKenzie, and Reja Younis – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Russian nuclear threats have cast a long shadow over the war in Ukraine. As the conflict enters its third year, it is crucial to understand the objectives of Russia’s nuclear signaling at various stages and the effectiveness of U.S. and allied responses thus far. To explore these issues, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues recently compiled a database and released a digital report Russian nuclear narratives and their evolution during the first 18 months of the war.[1] This brief builds on that work and finds that Russian officials noticeably calibrated their nuclear signaling at key points in the war. It also concludes that the risks of nuclear use will likely rise if Russia faces significant battlefield setbacks in the future or the conflict expands in new or unexpected ways. Accordingly, Washington should work to maintain international pressure against nuclear use in Ukraine while combatting narratives that downplay or rationalize Russia’s nuclear threats.
Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in Ukraine (csis.org)
5 – (Hunter Stoll, John Hoehn, William Courtney – RAND Corporation) Last month over territory controlled by Russia, three of its military aircraft were shot down or damaged. Ukraine’s ground-based air defenses showed their long reach. In another surprise, they have denied overall air superiority to Russia. An air defense revolution may be shaping how Ukraine and perhaps even NATO fight.
Air Defense Shapes Warfighting in Ukraine | RAND
6 – (Nigel Gould-Davies – IISS) The third year of Russia’s war in Ukraine has begun. What are the results of the first two years, and what lessons follow for the future?
Ukraine: the balance of resources and the balance of resolve (iiss.org)
7 – (Jahara Matisek, Will Reno and Anthony Tingle – RUSI) Evolving Russian tactics and sustained pressure along the frontline have pushed Ukrainian forces onto the defensive in 2024. If the West wants to keep Ukraine in the fight, it must adapt its security assistance accordingly.
Taiwan – China
(Matthew P. Funaiole, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Brian Hart – Center for Strategic & International Studies) In late 2023, a cutting-edge Chinese research vessel circumnavigated Taiwan in a rare move that went largely unreported. The Zhu Hai Yun (珠海云), which bristles with advanced monitoring and surveillance equipment, charted a course that appears intended to challenge Taiwan and probe the environment around the island. Chinese sources insist the ship is meant solely for civilian research. However, satellite imagery and other open-source information show that the lines separating the Zhu Hai Yun and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are exceedingly blurred.
Skirting the Shores: China’s New High-Tech Research Ship Probes the Waters around Taiwan (csis.org)
USA
1 – (Nicol Turner Lee, Colin Rhinesmith, and Fallon Wilson – Brookings) The Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) has helped to provision high-speed broadband service to over 23 million households since its inception as part of the Biden-Harris infrastructure spending bill.
Will ending the Affordable Broadband Connectivity Program (ACP) halt digital equity? | Brookings
2 – (Patrick Tucker – Defense One) The real breakthrough in quantum computing is always ten years away, or so goes the old saw. But even though disagreement persists about how to measure the performance of one quantum computer over another, and even how to code for machines that are fundamentally unlike the machines that code was invented for, the U.S. Navy is already experimenting with sort of highly complex problems that only quantum computers can solve.
The Navy is trying to use quantum computers to task spy satellites – Defense One
Global perspectives
(Atlantic Council) The contemporary geopolitical landscape is marked by a series of crises—economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and global pandemics—that have reshaped the role of governments worldwide. This comprehensive volume, featuring insights from twenty leading economists and diplomats, serves as a roadmap for navigating the complexities of contemporary governance.
2024 Atlas: Freedom and prosperity around the world – Atlantic Council
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
