LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Australia
Malcolm Davis (ASPI The Strategist) writes that the establishment by Australia and its AUKUS partners (US and UK) of an advanced deep space radar capability will help them address the threat of attacks on their satellites and other equipment. The DARC facility is expected to come online in Exmouth, Western Australia, by 2026 and will be followed by sites in the US and UK. DARC will strengthen Australia’s role in space domain awareness under Operation Dyurra and the ability to share critical information with Five Eyes partners
Seeing through the DARC, deep into space | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – Africa
Christopher Burke (ASPI The Strategist) writes that Australia’s commitment to supporting education initiatives in Africa has long been a cornerstone of Canberra’s diplomatic approach to the African continent
Australia – Papua New Guinea
Oliver Nobetau (Lowy The Interpreter) writes that the leaders of Australia and Papua New Guinea have signed a bilateral security agreement. The agreement with Australia is the first document entered into by PNG that aims to promote “comprehensive security cooperation”, which will address not only traditional security threats, but also non-traditional, including security IT, climate change, critical infrastructure issues and gender violence
Australia–PNG security agreement: A revamp for Pacific partnerships | Lowy Institute
Climate Action
1 – Aisha Al-Sarihi (Chatham House) writes that COP28 marked the second time a COP was hosted in the Gulf region since 2012. The choice of the United Arab Emirates as host country raised questions but also drew attention to the socio-economic context of the country and its contribution to combating climate change
2 – Mats Engström (European Council on Foreign Relations) writes that the EU’s role as a global climate leader was highlighted at COP28. The EU will only be able to maintain this leadership if it can secure support for its climate policies at home
The good COP: Why Europe’s climate leadership starts at home | ECFR
Hypersonic Missile Defense
Masao Dahlgren is the author of the report ‘Getting On Track: Space and Airborne Sensors for Hypersonic Missile Defense’ for the think tank Center for Strategic & International Studies. Future threats missiles ‘challenge’ existing missile defenses. As the US Department of Defense begins to deploy a constellation of space sensors, the report outlines the design tradeoffs and key pitfalls to avoid. Using advanced simulation tools, the report highlights the need to diversify satellite orbits, design constellations for early and persistent coverage, and maintain requirements for sensors with fire control capabilities
Near East
1- Hung Tran (Atlantic Council) writes about attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen on container ships in the Red Sea and on US and allied warships. The attacks have increased geopolitical and military tension in the region and disrupted trade flows, adding hardship to a fragile global economy and threatening to expand the already vast war, with mounting civilian casualties, launched in response to the October 7 Hamas attack
What attacks in the Red Sea could mean for the global economy – Atlantic Council
2 – Erik Skare (European Council on Foreign Relations) writes that Tehran may not have directly instigated the October 7 attacks on Israel, but Iran has long worked to strengthen groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad
Iran, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad: A marriage of convenience | ECFR
Pakistan
Megan Fahrney (Council on Foreign Relations) writes that Pakistan’s announcement in October 2023 that it would expel all unregistered migrants sparked fears among the country’s nearly two million undocumented Afghans that they will be repatriated to dangerous conditions. While Islamabad sees a need to stem the growing influence of terrorist groups operating in its border region, critics, including the United States and Afghanistan’s Taliban government, point to the risk of possible growing radicalization
Why Pakistan Is Deporting Afghan Migrants | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
Russia
1 – Ian Hill (Lowy The Interpreter) analyzes the reasons for the Russian President’s confidence in 2024
Putin’s confidence heading into 2024 | Lowy Institute
2 – Vladimir Socor (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that, in 2023, Moscow has redoubled its efforts in its dual war in Ukraine: against Kiev and against the United States and NATO. While Moscow has made this intention clear, most Western governments do not recognize that Russia is also at war with them in Ukraine. Russia wages a broader, hybrid war against the West in multiple theaters to overhaul the international system
Ukraine at War: The Year Past and the Year Ahead (Part One) – Jamestown
Russia – Baltic Sea Region
Pavel K. Baev (The Jamestown Foundation) writes that Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly declining in the Baltic Sea region. The worsening of the crisis in relations between Helsinki and Moscow highlights the deterioration of ties with Finland and other countries
Russia’s Row With Finland Exacerbates Baltic Solitude – Jamestown
South China Sea
Monica Sato, Harrison Prétat, Tabitha Mallory, Hao Chen, Gregory Poling (Center for Strategic & International Studies) write about the ‘hidden crisis’ in the South China Sea. As regional powers work to strengthen their claims to disputed waters and territories, the marine environment has fallen to critical levels
Deep Blue Scars: Environmental Threats to the South China Sea (csis.org)
Sudan
Renad Mansour, Ahmed Soliman (Chatham House) write that while much global attention is focused on the war in the Near East and efforts to reach a ceasefire and avoid humanitarian catastrophe, another devastating war is raging in Sudan, with equally violent consequences for millions of people and the inability to reach a ceasefire
Timor-Leste
Damien Kingsbury (East Asia Forum) writes that the year spent in East Timor was notable for two interconnected phenomena: the return of Xanana Gusmao as Prime Minister of a coalition government and the belated management of a looming fiscal crisis
Beginning the repairs on Timor-Leste’s economy | East Asia Forum
- L’analisi lineare e quantitativa nega la complessità / Linear and quantitative analysis denies complexity (Marco Emanuele)
- Mondi separati e il sacrificio della pace / Separate worlds and the sacrifice of peace (Marco Emanuele)
- Noi e l’intelligenza artificiale. Il Growth Mindset per affrontare l’era digitale / Us and artificial intelligence. The Growth Mindset to face the digital era (Marzia Giglioli)
- Di sangue, di suolo / Of blood, of soil (Marco Emanuele)
- Intelligence del tutto umana / Entirely human intelligence (Marco Emanuele)
- L’in-sensibile / The in-sensitive (Marco Emanuele)
- La coscienza dell’intelligenza artificiale. Il campo semantico della pietà / The consciousness of artificial intelligence. The semantic field of pity (Marzia Giglioli)
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
