LABORATORIO DI RICERCA COMPLESSA / COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Daily from global think tanks and open sources
(the analyzes here recalled do not necessarily correspond to the geostrategic thinking of The Global Eye)
Afghanistan
1 – (Graeme Smith – Crisis Group) Negotiations with the Afghan Taliban have failed to make their regime more politically inclusive or respectful of women’s rights. The diplomatic agenda should be more focused, with issues like security cooperation and economic stability insulated from a main track regarding international recognition of the Taliban.
Rethinking Talks with the Taliban | Crisis Group
2 – (Sanchita Bhattacharya – Lowy The Interpreter) The Taliban’s Supreme Leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada has vowed to start stoning women to death in public. On 23 March, in a voice message aired on a Taliban-controlled broadcast service, he stated, “We will flog the women … we will stone them to death in public [for adultery] …You may call it a violation of women’s rights when we publicly stone or flog them for committing adultery because they conflict with your democratic principles…[But] I represent Allah, and you represent Satan.”
Afghan women: The silent victims of Taliban brutality | Lowy Institute
Artificial Intelligence
1 – (Jeremy Baum, John Villasenor – Brookings) One of the most widely accessible types of AI-powered tools to enter the market in the last two years have been image generators, such as Dall·E and Gemini. These tools have a tendency to reproduce stereotypes in their images; recent attempts to mitigate these embedded biases have backfired, either failing to generate images with diverse subjects or including diversity where it would be inappropriate. It remains to be seen whether prompt engineering will be a sufficient strategy to mitigate bias in generative AI, or whether developers will be able to address a lack of diversity in the models’ training datasets directly.
Rendering misrepresentation: Diversity failures in AI image generation | Brookings
2 – (Council on Foreign Relations) Panelists discuss the trends revealed in this year’s AI Index Report, including technical advancements in AI, public perceptions of the technology, and the geopolitical dynamics surrounding its development.
The Next Chapter for Artificial Intelligence | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
3 – (Anna Artyushina – Centre for International Governance Innovation) What happens when artificial intelligence (AI) becomes even more integral in our lives than it already is? The ArriveCAN debacle is a teachable moment in this regard. Auditor General Karen Hogan found multiple violations in the procurement, development and deployment of the application that mistakenly sent tens of thousands of Canadians into quarantine and, according to some legal experts, violated the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
AUKUS
(Tom Corben and Sophie Mayo – ASPI The Strategist) AUKUS Pillar 2 has a PR problem—and no, not just among sceptical regional partners.
Patience, please. AUKUS Pillar 2 is indeed making progress | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia
(Anthony Welch – East Asia Forum) Two recent national reviews carry implications for Australian higher education, highlighting the issue of underfunding and proposed policy reforms that include halving net overseas migration. In response to the looming loss of income from international students, suggestions have been made to expand overseas branch campuses. But they are not perceived as a long-term solution to the financial troubles faced by Australian universities.
No easy answers for Australian universities’ financial dilemmas | East Asia Forum
Australia – Pacific
(Meg Tapia and Cameron Watts – ASPI The Strategist) In a bid to help Pacific island states become more resilient to cyber attacks such as the one Vanuatu suffered in 2022, Australia outlined a vision to become the partner of choice for cyber security in the region in the Australian Cyber Security Strategy released last November, as part of a renewed focus on enhancing cybersecurity cooperation and capacity-building.
China – European Union
(Florian Klumpp – East Asia Forum) The aims of China’s climate actions are underpinned by a desire for political and economic stability — driving its investment in green transitions while still heavily depending on fossil fuels and raw materials. This has made China both a leader in climate change mitigation and a contributor to the problem. The European Union wants to cooperate with China to reduce fossil fuel use and foster green competition. To do so, it must face its own sustainability needs while offering more sustainable alternatives to China’s initiatives.
China’s lead in green and dirty energy a hurdle for EU climate agenda | East Asia Forum
China – Papua New Guinea
(Michael Kabuni – Lowy The Interpreter) China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected in Papua New Guinea this weekend to sign an agreement clearing the way for PNG’s agricultural exports to enter the Chinese market. This step has already caught international attention, particularly with the lowering of biosecurity hurdles, and follows the preferential access China offered to PNG for its seafood products in 2020. Much has been said about China’s growing influence in the Pacific, and the West’s response, but it’s evident China is executing a well-crafted, long term plan.
It’s important to acknowledge PNG’s own interests with China | Lowy Institute
Climate Action – Energy Transition
(John Coyne and Tariqul Hasan Rifat – ASPI The Strategist) Climate change requires comprehensive global strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Armed forces must contribute.
Armed forces, too, must help fight climate change | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
European Union – USA
(Jeremy Shapiro – European Council on Foreign Relations) The apparent omniscience of US intelligence is a valuable strategic asset. In this third installment of ECFR’s Letters from Washington, Jeremy Shapiro sets out what Europeans can learn from the US intelligence community to boost their diplomatic arsenal
Letter from Washington: All-knowing America and US intelligence diplomacy | ECFR
India
(Abhinandan Kumar – Lowy The Interpreter) Voting in India’s national elections opens today and the domestic electorate shows an increasing interest in foreign policies. The election manifestos of three national political parties – the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Indian National Congress, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI(M) – tell a story of distinct ideological positions – right, centre, and left respectively. Each set out contending visions for voters to decide.
Party time: The foreign policy promises as India’s election gets underway | Lowy Institute
India – Southeast Asia
(Premesha Saha – ASPI The Strategist) As India’s ‘Act East’ policy focussing on Southeast Asia moves into its 10th year, it is time for New Delhi to spell out more clearly how it aims to enhance its security and strategic partnerships with ASEAN nations.
Japan
(Maximilien Xavier Rehm – Lowy The Interpreter) A visit to the United States this month has further added to Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s growing list of foreign policy achievements, even as his administration continues to be plagued by domestic political problems. Hosted by President Joe Biden for a state dinner on 10 April, the two leaders then welcomed Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr the next day for a historic trilateral summit. Security issues took centre stage in both meetings: the US-Japan bilateral saw an upgrade to the partnerships command and control structure, while the trilateral summit’s joint statement made explicit reference to China’s “dangerous and aggressive behaviour” in the South China Sea while pledging enhanced maritime cooperation.
Japan: Can foreign policy achievements save Kishida? | Lowy Institute
Near East
1 – (Yoel Guzansky – The Institute for National Security Studies) The war in Gaza began as Arab countries were strengthening their economic and diplomatic ties with Turkey and Iran. The motives behind this détente remain unchanged, with a tactical need to reduce tensions and focus on domestic affairs. The war further justified the rapprochement, as it prevented potential harm to the regional players. As Israel’s isolation in the region increases following the war, the rest of the region is strengthening their ties.
The Middle East: What Has Changed This Year and What Should Change? | INSS
2 – (Orit Perlov – The Institute for National Security Studies) Hamas is at a breaking point. When examining the Palestinian discourse on social media six months after the outbreak of the “Swords of Iron” war, one trend stands out. While Hamas’s ideology (i.e., the use of violent struggle against Israel to liberate Palestine) is at the peak of its popularity in Gaza and the West Bank, a different trend is apparent regarding the actual control of Hamas and the other resistance organizations.
The Palestinian Discourse: What Has Changed and What Should Be Expected? | INSS
3 – (Ilan Zalayat – The Institute for National Security Studies) Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have played a key role in the tensions between Israel and Iran since the assassination of a Revolutionary Guards officer in Damascus, culminating in Iran’s attack on Israel on April 14. Despite renewing their diplomatic relations with Iran only in the last year, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are being used as intermediaries for conveying messages between Iran and the United States and Israel, in order to prevent the exchange of blows from escalating into a full-blown war. Similarly, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have even engaged in talks with Hezbollah, despite previously defining it as a terrorist organization. Their aim is to prevent further escalation in the regional fighting ongoing involving Iran’s proxies, Israel, and the United States since October 7.
The Role of the Gulf States in the Tensions with Iran: Between Hedging and Normalization | INSS
4 – (Meir Elran – The Institute for National Security Studies) The government has unanimously approved the “Five-Year Plan” of the Tkuma administration for rebuilding and developing the communities along the Gaza border. The purpose of the plan is “to bring about the renewal and development of the region and significant demographic growth.” Formulated by Tkuma together with the communities, authorities, government ministries, and other parties, the cost of the plan is 19 billion NIS for five years. 14 billion NIS of the budget was approved for rehabilitating and developing the region during 2023–2028. The remaining NIS 5 billion is reserved for developing the region between 2025–2028.
Rebuilding the Communities Along the Gaza Border: A Supreme National Goal | INSS
Philippines
(Crisis Group) Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.
Calming the Long War in the Philippine Countryside | Crisis Group
Russia
1 – (Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow plans to build a network of drone bases along the entire Northern Sea Route to monitor threats and support expansive Russian claims to the Arctic. The Kremlin initiated the project based on what it has learned about drones during its war against Ukraine, seeing drones as a cheaper alternative to other Arctic designs. The new effort is more about compensating for Russian weakness than projecting a new form of power, which could change if and when this drone system becomes fully operational.
2 – (Vadim Shtepa – The Jamestown Foundation) The contradictions between Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric and the realities of everyday life in Russia—including the promises of economic and social stability—have become more evident since his “election” victory. Putin routinely boasts of significant economic and demographic growth, despite the fact that his war has exacerbated an already precarious domestic situation. The Kremlin leader’s contradictions look to become further problematic in the coming years, signaling that Russia is unlikely to experience the “stability” he has promised.
Putin Touts Incompatible Contradictions – Jamestown
Russian War in Ukraine
1 – (Max Bergmann – Center for Strategic and International Studies) Ukraine is hanging on, but only just. As both artillery and air defense munitions run low, Russia has gained the upper hand in the war. There has been a widespread sense that the war is in an equilibrium, a stalemate. After all, at first glance, Kyiv is bustling, the Odesa port is open, the economy is resilient, and the front lines and air defenses are largely holding back the Russian forces. But after recently visiting Ukraine, it is clear that the current situation is tenuous.
After the Supplemental, Ukraine’s Path Forward (csis.org)
2 – (Taras Kuzio – The Jamestown Foundation) Ukrainian forces have enjoyed a string of successes in targeting energy facilities and military installations within Russia and the occupied territories. Kyiv’s “de-naftification” of Russia reflects Ukraine’s growing ability to bring the war home to Moscow, further enflaming societal discontent with Putin’s Kremlin. The successful attacks on Russian targets in the country have been carried out almost solely by Ukrainian military equipment to avoid some Western capitals’ bans on using their aid within Russia.
Ukraine’s ‘De-Naftafication’ of Russia (Part One) – Jamestown
USA
1 – (Atlantic Council) Here’s the 4-1-1. Four bills are heading toward a vote in the US House, likely Saturday, intended to provide additional aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan—more than ninety billion dollars in all. One man, Speaker Mike Johnson, is orchestrating this four-part package, which would also back efforts to seize Russian assets to support Ukraine, among other measures. Finally, there’s one group to turn to make sense of the pending legislation: Atlantic Council experts. Below, they share their insights on what’s in the legislation and why it matters.
2 – (General Wesley K. Clark – Atlantic Council) The United States’ power of example—the “soft power” so ascendant during the post-Cold War period—was built upon a foundation of economic, military, and moral strength and success. To sustain it, Americans must confront several hard truths
3 – (Tara Watson – Brookings) As the population ages, the solvency of Social Security and Medicare is in jeopardy. The U.S. faces an inadequate supply of direct care workers such as certified nursing assistants, home health aides, and personal care aides. Immigrants can help address workforce challenges and are a net positive to the financial health of the Social Security and Medicare systems.
4 – (Jacob Ware – Council on Foreign Relations) Violence around U.S. elections in 2024 could not only destabilize American democracy but also embolden autocrats across the world. Jacob Ware recommends that political leaders take steps to shore up civic trust and remove the opportunity for violence ahead of the 2024 election season.
Preventing U.S. Election Violence in 2024 | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
5 – (Zongyuan Zoe Liu – Council on Foreign Relations) The response to the temporary closure of the Port of Baltimore—from a deadly tanker collision—demonstrates the resilience of U.S. supply chains despite fears of costly disruptions.
Baltimore Bridge Collapse Tests U.S. Supply Chains | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
6 – (Elizabeth Hoffman, Audrey Aldisert, Cynthia Cook, Gregory Sanders, and Shivani Vakharia – Center for Strategic and International Studies) Congress is facing the most significant and transformational opportunity to strengthen the U.S. defense industrial base (DIB) since the end of World War II. The heritage equipment that the United States has provided to Ukraine for its self-defense in the face of the brazen and illegal invasion by Russian forces in 2022 needs to be replenished to ensure the United States is postured to continue to deter its adversaries. The new hardware will be produced at factories across the nation. Of the $113 billion appropriated by Congress to date related to the conflict in Ukraine, as much as $68 billion is destined to be invested here at home.
How Supporting Ukraine Is Revitalizing the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (csis.org)
USA – Southeast Asia
(Luke C. Hahn – East Asia Forum) In recent years, the United States has struggled to maintain its influence in Southeast Asia while China’s presence continues to expand. President Biden’s absence from the 2023 ASEAN Annual Summit affected US prestige in the region. To counter China’s influence and maintain favourable relationships with ASEAN nations, the United States must enhance its public diplomacy efforts. This could be through increasing the number of diplomats in the region, promoting existing military, economic and educational programs, and establishing comprehensive security partnerships with key countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore — all while respecting ASEAN’s centrality in the face of US-China competition.
Revitalising US relations with Southeast Asia through public diplomacy | East Asia Forum
USA – Venezuela
(Atlantic Council) From Barbados to the ballot box, things got bumpy. On Wednesday, the United States announced plans to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela—though with opportunities for exemptions—faulting Nicolás Maduro’s government for failing to uphold an agreement signed in Barbados in October 2023. The agreement was intended to put Venezuela on the path to holding a competitive presidential election in 2024, but Maduro’s government has cracked down on its political opponents ahead of the July 28 vote, including banning leading opposition candidate María Corina Machado. Companies now have until the end of May to apply to the US Treasury for an individual license or wind down their business with Venezuela, most notably with state-run oil company Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., or PDVSA. So where does this leave Venezuelan politics and global oil markets? Our experts share their insights below.
The Science of Where Magazine (Direttore: Emilio Albertario)
