From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
China
(Hung Tran – Atlantic Council) On September 24, 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced a slew of monetary policy decisions, including a sizable policy rate cut and other supportive financial measures. Two days later, the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party met and “vowed to save the private economy, stabilize its property sector from further slumping and ensure necessary fiscal expenditures.” These moves are a bold and significant political and policy decision. However, the announced monetary and financial measures—while useful—are not enough to revitalize China’s lackluster economic prospects. They need to be matched by forceful fiscal actions, as promised in the Politburo’s statement. Japan’s experience during its lost decades proves a useful example. In response to the country’s economic crisis, only significant fiscal support managed to sustain Japan’s economy when it was burdened with a balance sheet recession triggered by a collapsing property sector, plummeting stock markets, increased savings rates, and decreased consumption. This is a lesson China should pay attention to. – China’s recent monetary easing measures are useful, but not enough – Atlantic Council
(Col (Dr) DCS Mayal – Observer Research Foundation) Disruptive communication technologies are helping reshape global dynamics by empowering marginalised populations and prioritising public opinion over traditional military hard power. At the same time, however, these technologies are also creating opportunities for groups to clandestinely and remotely influence public sentiment and monitor, control, and assert their preferred narratives. This brief discusses the case of China, which has been working since the beginning of the 21st century to leverage new and emerging technologies in its quest for global supremacy. – Chinese Global Media Strategies and Their Footprints in South Asia (orfonline.org)
(German Marshall Fund of the United States) There are many writings by Western scholars on Chinese foreign as well as domestic policy. Yet few have ventured to analyze the internal intellectual debates in China that, either partly or significantly, shape Chinese policymaking. A recent book from the European Council on Foreign Relations titled The Idea of China: Chinese Thinkers on Power, Progress, and People, intends to fill that gap. Written by Alicja Bachulska, Mark Leonard, and Janka Oertel, the book presents some of the leading Chinese perspectives on a range of contemporary global as well as domestic issues. To help us further understand Chinese thinking and its significance, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Alicja Bachulska, one of the co-authors of the book and a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. – Understanding China Through Chinese Intellectual Debates | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
China – Africa
(Theodore Murphy – European Council on Foreign Relations) Earlier this month, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told an audience of 51 African leaders that China’s ties with their continent were the “best in history”. Indeed, at the China-Africa summit, Beijing mustered $50.7bn (rendered in renminbi) in aid and investment – even if the accounting was creative – and established new education, trade, and security support, as well as bilateral exchanges. China also upgraded its relationship with Africa to “strategic” and “all-weather”, claiming this would represent a “shared future for the new era”. – Value-added and value lost: The macroeconomic limits of China’s Africa strategy | ECFR
Colombo Security Conclave
(Sayantan Haldar – Observer Research Foundation) The Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) reached a milestone on August 30, 2024 with India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Mauritius signing a Charter and a memorandum of understanding, for the establishment of the CSC secretariat. Though Bangladesh, a newly inducted member to the grouping, was absent, no conclusive explanation has surfaced. The Seychelles participated as an observer state. – The Colombo Security Conclave as a much-needed security dimension (orfonline.org)
European Union – Black Sea Region
(Maria Simeonova – European Council on Foreign Relations) The Black Sea’s strategic importance is increasingly evident in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russia’s weakening military capacity in the Black Sea region presents an opportunity for the EU to further its security, trade, and connectivity interests – while providing support for its littoral states. – Staying afloat: How the EU can navigate the Black Sea to counter Russian aggression | ECFR
European Union – Gulf Cooperation Council
(Cinzia Bianco – European Council on Foreign Relations) The first-ever summit between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council takes place on 16 October in Brussels. In recent years, GCC countries have become ever-more important geopolitical actors in the Middle East and North Africa. From Europeans’ point of view in particular, this summit is a chance to lay the foundations for greater strategic interdependence with Gulf actors. The gathering could provide the political impulse long needed to inject energy into this relationship. – Summit of ambition: How European and Gulf states can build a newly strategic relationship | ECFR
Finland – Australia
(Grant Wyeth – Lowy The Interpreter) The theme of this year’s Helsinki Security Forum was Towards a Total Defence of Europe. Drawn from Finland’s own doctrine of defence – which the president, Alexander Stubb, corrected to “comprehensive defence” – it incorporates social resilience and civil preparedness into its security apparatus. The not-too-subtle signal is that Finland takes its defence incredibly seriously, and given current conditions on the continent, the rest of Europe should do likewise. Although Australia is far from the front line of any hot war, recently Canberra has promoted an approach to security and foreign policy that, in theory at least, attempts to embody similar principles. Government rhetoric has included phrases such as “whole-of-government”, “whole-of-nation”, and using “all tools of statecraft” in the hope of developing a more effective approach to advancing Australia’s interests. – Does Finland’s “total defence” doctrine hold lessons for Australia? | Lowy Institute
India
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar – Observer Research Foundation) The 2017 cyberattack on a petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia was a watershed moment in cybersecurity, the perpetrator remains unconfirmed. It marked the first intentional use of malware to cause physical harm—a previously theoretical threat. The malware, known as Triton, could potentially release toxic hydrogen sulphide gas or trigger explosions, risking the lives of those in the vicinity and the entire industry plant. Following this event and the fear that such an attack could also target other countries with critical infrastructure, the United States of America established its Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) Statutes in January 2019. However, as of July 2023, these statutes have expired and are no longer the baseline for security measures in US Chemical plantations. Despite this step forward, the expiration of these statutes does not indicate a change in trends. India also does not have a single legislation for cybersecurity in chemical security. While India does have a comprehensive list of cybersecurity governance efforts (…) and governance tools for chemical security (…) the lack of overlap in the two areas is glaring. – Securing India’s critical infrastructure: Prioritising cybersecurity in chemical facilities (orfonline.org)
(Prateek Tripathi – Observer Research Foundation) On 27 July 2024, the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) officially granted permission for the “first approach to criticality” of India’s first Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu. The indigenously developed nuclear reactor is set to be operational soon, which would establish it as only the second country in the world to do so after Russia. What makes this development so significant? Primarily, this marks the first instance when India gets the opportunity to put its vast thorium reserves to good use, thereby furthering the cause of achieving independence from the import of nuclear fuel and accelerating the push for energy security. – The Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor and India’s pursuit for energy security (orfonline.org)
(Rama Shyam, Vinita Ajgaonkar – Observer Research Foundation) ‘Social determinants of health’ are social and economic factors, like food security, financial stability, resources, education, social inclusion, and affordable health services, that influence health outcomes. For poor and disadvantaged populations, the persistent negative patterns in these variables have a disproportionately negative impact on their health outcomes. With the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating the impact of the various social determinants of health, there is an urgent need to connect people to a social protection network of schemes, programmes, and policies that can safeguard them against food insecurity, poverty, and vulnerability. – Social protection schemes: Welfare measures or a test of resilience for the urban poor? (orfonline.org)
India – USA
(Max Abrahms, Soumya Awasthi – Observer Research Foundation) India and the United States (US) are realigning their respective foreign policies to prioritise stronger ties in counterterrorism cooperation. However, challenges arise from differing national security perspectives, particularly regarding regional threats posed by entities like Pakistan and Afghanistan. Following massive terrorist attacks, this collaboration has intensified, encompassing various activities that include intelligence sharing and joint military exercises. Yet, there remain policy divergences, as the US adopts a unilateral military approach and India prefers multilateral diplomatic strategies. This brief examines the evolving US-India partnership in counterterrorism, seeking a nuanced understanding of plausible solutions to regional challenges. – U.S.-India Cooperation in Counterterrorism: Redefining Convergence Amidst Challenges (orfonline.org)
Iran
(Hamdi Malik, Michael Knights – The Washington Institute) At a recent event in Iran, the leader of the key Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq was strategically positioned in a place of honor directly behind the Supreme Leader. – Qais in Tehran, Prominently Seated Behind Khamenei | The Washington Institute
Japan – Indo Pacific
(Jenny Bloomfield – Lowy The Interpreter) On 1 October, Shigeru Ishiba was sworn in as Japan’s new prime minister, after succeeding in his fifth attempt to win the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party. He is familiar with Australia from his two posts as defence minister under Prime Minister Fukuda in 2007-08, and then agriculture minister in Prime Minister Aso’s cabinet in 2008-09, when the LDP was defeated in the general election by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). I was head of the Australian Embassy in Tokyo’s Political/Strategic Section during his tenure. – What Japan’s new Prime Minister thinks about Indo-Pacific peace | Lowy Institute
Mekong Basin
(Crisis Group) Hydropower, sand mining and other development projects are threatening the ecological balance in the Mekong basin and the livelihoods of its residents. Policymakers would better serve the public by anticipating the problems of over-exploiting the river than by reacting to the consequences. – Dammed in the Mekong: Averting an Environmental Catastrophe | Crisis Group
Middle East
(Orna Mizrahi – INSS) October 8, 2023, will always stand in the shadow of the day before it—a day when Israel was struck by a disaster that will never be forgotten. However, on this day, the war changed its course. Nasrallah’s decision, in full coordination with the Iranians, to join Hamas and open a second front on the Lebanese border transformed the conflict with Hamas into something different: a multi-front war between Iran, its proxies, and Israel. Today, Israel is fighting on seven fronts simultaneously, in line with a strategy that Nasrallah helped design and ultimately paid for with his life. – A Year to the War in the Northern Arena – Where Are We Headed? | INSS
(Soner Cagaptay – The Washington Institute) Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime. – Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 1) | The Washington Institute
(Soner Cagaptay – The Washington Institute) Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region. – Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 2) | The Washington Institute
Myanmar (Rohingyas)
(Sreeparna Banerjee – Observer Research Foundation) The rise in deadly attacks on Rohingya people in Myanmar’s Rakhine State since May 2024 bears a chilling resemblance to the atrocities committed in August 2017, when the military forced Rohingyas to flee by attacking and burning down settlements. Nearly seven years later, similar scenes of Rohingya men, women, and children being slayed or escaping to neighbouring nations are unfolding, reflecting a continued erasure of Rohingya history and identity. Only this time, the preparator is an ethnic armed group. The new conscription laws used to recruit the Rohingyas have become a key point of division against the Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ethnic armed group in Rakhine, who were earlier sympathetic to these people but now view them as pawns of the Junta. – Road from Rakhine: The uncertain fate of Rohingyas (orfonline.org)
Middle East
(Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Rockets are now being fired by Iran into Israel. This turn of events raises new questions: will Israel’s strategy of degrading Hezbollah work, lead to a full blown regional war, or be a game changer in the Middle East? – The Hezbollah-Israel War of 2024: Escalation as De-escalation? – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Quad
(Abhijit Singh – Observer Research Foundation) When United States (US) President Joe Biden welcomed the Prime Ministers (PM) of India, Australia, and Japan to his hometown of Wilmington for the fourth in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit last week, the mood was one of high optimism. The summit marked a farewell for both Biden and Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida, and President Biden seemed eager to make it count. Two years after Quad’s formalisation, the commitment to regional cooperation was unmistakable, and Biden was determined to build on the momentum. – Quad’s maritime vision short on strategic intent (orfonline.org)
United Kingdom – Chagos (Mauritius)
(Kate O’Shaughnessy – Lowy The Interpreter) The UK government announced last week that it will cede sovereignty of the Chagos archipelago to Mauritius. The agreement ends an almost 60-year dispute between the two countries, allowing Chagossians displaced in the early 1970s to return home, and ensuring the continued operation for the next 99 years of the US military base on Diego Garcia (one of the islands in the archipelago). But concluding this deal likely won’t reverse declining support for the international rules-based order, especially across Africa. And for those countries who want more and better multilateralism – like Australia – there’s important lessons to be learned from how the Chagos dispute played out, and now in watching early reactions to the deal, especially in the “Global South”. – The UK deal on Diego Garcia is positive, but it won’t reverse declining support for the rules-based order | Lowy Institute
USA
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) In 2022, President Joe Biden signed into law the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act. The legislation directs hundreds of billions of dollars toward supercharging domestic production of advanced technologies such as semiconductors—also known as microchips or chips. Since its passage, private firms have announced nearly $400 billion dollars in additional investments in chips and other electronics. Arizona and several other states are poised to become semiconductor powerhouses, but the law’s implementation is facing delays, worker shortages, and other challenges. – The CHIPS Act: How U.S. Microchip Factories Could Reshape the Economy | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – China
(Jacqueline Gibson – ASPI The Strategist) The US Congress continues to grapple with legislation aimed at empowering US competition with China. Little time remains in the 118th Congress to finalise most of the bills that congressional committees have worked on for months. Many are likely to be back on the agenda next year, in the 119th Congress, offering Australia key opportunities for deeper collaboration, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and on economic security. When Congress returned from its summer recess on 9 September, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced a 28-bill package to bolster the US’s China policy. – US Congress takes aim at China: an update on progress of legislation | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA – Iran
(Atlantic Council) The United States needs a bipartisan strategy toward Iran that can be maintained across several administrations, one that works patiently and resolutely to counter Iran’s efforts to dominate the Middle East, drive the United States out, destroy Israel, and threaten Arab allies. Pressure to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and to halt its malign regional influence is crucial—but won’t work absent a strategic goal of new negotiations to address both challenges simultaneously. The United States must also counter Iran’s hostage taking, assassinations, and cyber and election meddling by triggering automatic penalties and responses in lockstep with allies. – A bipartisan Iran strategy for the next US administration—and the next two decades – Atlantic Council
Women, Peace, and Security
(Wilfred Wan – SIPRI) With the 25th anniversary of the landmark United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) coming next year, it is high time to assess the widespread impact it and subsequent WPS resolutions (collectively referred to as the WPS agenda) have had on the international security landscape. The topics of women’s inclusion and gender mainstreaming have become more prominent across activities, mandates and policies that pertain to the four ‘pillars’ of the WPS agenda—participation, protection, prevention, and relief and recovery. However, the synergies between the WPS agenda and the governance of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) remain largely underexplored, let alone utilized. Indeed, WMD remains an ‘area for further action’ when it comes to linking the WPS agenda with arms control and disarmament, according to a 2020 study by the UN Institute for Disarmament Research. This SIPRI essay considers the WPS–WMD relationship, examining the potential benefits of and pathways towards further integration of these important global agendas. – Synergies between Women, Peace and Security and the governance of WMD | SIPRI
