From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: China; Leo XIV-Lebanon; Russia-Ukraine-China; Russia-Ukraine-US; Venezuela-US
China
(Frank Tian Xie – The Jamestown Foundation) The Beijing Dance Academy (BDA), China’s leading dance institution, operates as a state-owned entity deeply entwined with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), receiving significant funding from the Chinese government and being governed by a Party-dominated leadership—details that are downplayed or omitted in its English-language materials. BDA’s curriculum and international exchange programs mandate political education and loyalty to CCP ideology, raising concerns about academic autonomy and the integrity of global partnerships. The Academy’s CCP ties and politicization creates risks for foreign institutions, who may unknowingly partner with a vector for Chinese state propaganda and CCP influence, rather than a perceived neutral cultural entity. – Beijing Dance Academy Dances to the Tune of Zhongnanhai – Jamestown
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) A secretive program of experimental dual-use satellites has accelerated its launch cadence in 2025, sending six satellites into orbit—more than in the last four years combined. Shijian satellites have displayed impressive capabilities, including towing and refuelling other satellites, and even deploying additional, smaller satellites. The lack of data released about their operations indicates their dual-use potential, as does the apparent alignment of the program with military strategy documents that call for dominating control of space. The upcoming five-year plan is set to increase investment and support for space development, which the Party leadership identifies as a strategic emerging industry. – Dual-Use Shijian Satellite Program Ramps up in 2025 – Jamestown
(Athena Tong, Yun-Ting Cai – The Jamestown Foundation) Over 600-gigabytes of leaked documents illuminate the connections between the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Mesa Laboratory and the firm Geedge Networks. The documents show implementation of Geedge’s technology outside of the PRC, including in Ethiopia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Kazakhstan. Technology transfers follow the Digital Silk Road and occur between the PRC and One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative partners. This follows the PRC’s stated goals of enhancing digital infrastructure and data governance cooperation with OBOR countries. Leaked data shows that Geedge does not exclusively utilize proprietary code, instead using existing commercial software development kits (SDKs) and open-source components. This could potentially raise legal concerns among developers. – Internet Censorship Tools Exported Along Belt and Road – Jamestown
Leo XIV-Lebanon
(Middle East Institute) MEI Senior Fellow Fadi Nicholas Nassar joins host Matthew Czekaj to share expert insights and personal reflections on Pope Leo XIV’s trip to Lebanon from November 30 to December 2. Nassar unpacks the significance of the visit, part of the pontiff’s first overseas tour since assuming office, and its potential impact on Lebanon’s untenable status quo. The conversation explores key questions, including the ability of spiritual and moral authority to compensate for the shortcomings of political leadership as well as whether Lebanon’s government will be able to capitalize on the momentum generated by this visit as the possible return of conflict looms on the horizon. – Soft Power in Hard Times: Pope Leo XIV’s Visit to Lebanon | Middle East Institute
Russia-Ukraine-China
(Phillip M. Ramirez – Atlantic Council) In recent weeks, the Trump administration again engaged in talks aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump and his envoys should be applauded for attempting to end a conflict that has dragged on for nearly four years at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives. Unfortunately, given the current realities of the battlefield, any negotiated peace will almost certainly favor Russia. On this, the Trump administration is correct. However, the administration should consider the consequences of agreeing to a deal that favors the clear aggressor instead of fighting for a more balanced and just peace. The effects of the former would be felt far beyond Ukraine, Russia, and Europe: the very terms that would be agreeable to Russian President Vladimir Putin are exactly the ones that could embolden China to take military action of its own. The United States cannot isolate its actions in one part of the world from its goals in another. China will learn from any peace in Ukraine made under the current situation. The United States will reap the consequences. – The cost of an unjust peace in Ukraine? An emboldened China. – Atlantic Council
Russia-Ukraine-US
(Fiona Hill and Thomas Wright – Brookings) The United States and Russia are taking a business-first approach to negotiations, which is unlikely to lead to a long-term solution to the conflict that prevents Russia from continuing its aggression. The Russian military is suffering about 1,500 casualties a day while only making incremental gains on the battlefield—but Putin believes this is a temporary price worth paying. In the interest of global security, any peace deal to end the war in Ukraine must include an ironclad agreement that Russia will not pursue future attacks. To put itself in a strong negotiating position, Ukraine must work with allies and partners to deprive Russia of its economic capacity to fund its war. – Behind the negotiating table to end the Russia-Ukraine war | Brookings
Venezuela-US
(Roxanna Vigil – Council on Foreign Relations) The U.S. military buildup off the coast of Venezuela that began in August was followed by U.S. strikes on more than twenty alleged drug boats that left over eighty people dead. Across three months of deadly boat strikes, the Donald Trump administration has increased pressure on the Nicolás Maduro regime with the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. military’s most advanced aircraft carrier, to the Caribbean Sea; the designation of an alleged Maduro-led cartel as a foreign terrorist organization; and the president’s repeated threats of future land strikes ostensibly to combat drug trafficking. – Trump Can Break Maduro’s Hold of Venezuela Without a War | Council on Foreign Relations
(Jason Marczak – Atlantic Council) Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro now faces the greatest challenge to his grip on power since he took office over a dozen years ago. A carrier strike group led by the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, arrived in the Caribbean more than two weeks ago along with long-range bombers, Marines, and other US assets deployed to the region as part of a mission officially aimed at combating narcotics trafficking. Previously dormant military bases in the region have been reactivated in a military buildup focused on narcotics, but with Maduro placed at the center of the effort due to his own ties to trafficking. – After Maduro – Atlantic Council
