From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
ASEAN – China
(Temjenmeren Ao – Manohar Parrikar Institute) At the sidelines of the 27th ASEAN–China Summit in Vientiane, Lao PDR on 10 October 2024, both sides announced the ‘substantial conclusion of the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) 3.0 Upgrade Negotiations’ which is expected to be finalised and signed by 2025. The ACFTA was established in 2002.The FTA between ASEAN and China covers over 2 billion people, with a combined gross domestic product of over US$ 20 trillion. At the 25th ASEAN–China Summit in November 2022, the ACFTA 3.0 Upgrade Negotiations was launched in order to circumvent the growing protectionism in the world. It aimed to accelerate post-pandemic economic recovery through deeper economic integration and cooperation by tapping into future growth areas that includes digital and green economies. – ASEAN–China Free Trade Area 3.0: Why Southeast Asia Matters? | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
China
(Jie Gao – The Jamestown Foundation) The first national-level long-term plan for space science development from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) sets the goal of becoming a global leader by 2050, by which point it aims to lead in revolutionary scientific breakthroughs, deep space missions, and by becoming the global center for space science. Military strategists see commercial space as an essential strategic force for future conflicts, noting the deep integration of commercial space assets in modern warfare. The new plan will likely serve military purposes by facilitating research on dual-use technologies, such as space weather monitoring. The possibility of misperception and conflict will grow as the PRC begins to narrow the gap in its space capabilities with the United States. – PRC Unveils New Space Plan – Jamestown
Climate Action
(Rahul Tongia – Brookings) Tackling climate change requires not just new technology or political will but money—more money than many poor countries have. This means new sources of finance must be found if we are to keep global temperature rises within limits like 1.5 or even 2 degrees Celsius. The problem is that most “climate finance” fails the test of additionality—we need additional money for additional carbon reduction. – Why everyone exaggerates “climate finance”
Eurasia
(Pravesh Kumar Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation) The II Minsk International Conference on Eurasian Security, hosted by Belarus from October 31 to November 1, is believed to have highlighted the shifting stance within Eurasia towards a more multipolar world, with an increasing emphasis on autonomy from Western influence. However, this perspective is somewhat one-sided, as not all countries in Eurasia are inclined to distance themselves from the West or to join the anti-Western bloc led by Russia and China. – Second Minsk Conference on Eurasian Security: Some Major Takeaways | Vivekananda International Foundation
Georgia
(Natia Seskuria – RUSI) On 26 October 2024, more than two million Georgian citizens went to the polls. Many voters regarded the parliamentary elections as existentially important for the country’s future. For the first time ever, Georgia’s elections were seen as a process that would determine its foreign policy trajectory either as pro-Western or pro-Russian. – Georgia’s Contested Elections: What’s Next? | Royal United Services Institute
Germany
(Atlantic Council) The traffic light is flashing red. On Wednesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked Finance Minister Christian Lindner, ending the ruling government’s “traffic light” coalition of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), Lindner’s Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens. Scholz, whose public support is flagging, also announced that the parliament will hold a confidence vote in his government in January. This vote could move the next Bundestag elections up to March 2025, and it comes as far-right and far-left political parties are making inroads with German voters. – Experts react: Scholz’s coalition has collapsed. What’s next for Germany? – Atlantic Council
India
(Dhruv Gadhavi, Manasi Singh – Observer Research Foundation) Intelligence Studies in India remains a forbidden zone for academics, given the secrecy surrounding the whole national security apparatus. Amidst the recent diplomatic row between India and Canada, filtering rhetoric and whataboutery from the public debate leaves little objective knowledge of the Indian Intelligence’s functioning. A proactive social media further adds to the misinformation and propaganda that builds a skewed narrative bereft of sound analysis on the subject. Elsewhere, particularly in North America and Europe, Intelligence Studies is an established discipline and a constantly flourishing field with new perspectives and areas of research. Apart from the large body of writing by former practitioners, i.e. senior officers from security intelligence agencies, exclusive journals like Intelligence and National Security, International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, and Journal of Intelligence History add to the public knowledge of intelligence through empirical research. Intelligence Studies Section (ISS) was set up by the International Studies Association (ISA) in 1985 to promote research on all aspects of intelligence. Intelligence Studies is growing at an exponential rate, but the literature and scholarship on intelligence in India have remained scarce. – Intelligence Studies in India remains a forbidden zone
Japan
(Kazuto Suzuki – Chatham House) In Japan’s snap election on 27 October, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and New Komeito lost the overwhelming majority it had held since the 2012 general election. The ruling coalition now has 215 seats, leaving it 18 seats short of a majority. – Following its snap election, Japanese politics has entered uncharted waters | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Maldives – India
(Umang Bhansal – Vivekananda International Foundation) On October 10, 2024 President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, accompanied by First Lady Madam Sajidha Mohamed, concluded the five-day state visit to India. The visit conducted by President Muizzu, at the invitation of Indian President Droupadi Murmu, marked the first official state visit to India and second high-level visit by a senior official from Maldives, since President Muizzu took office in November 2023. – President Muizzu Visit to India amidst Economic Uncertainties: An Analytical Overview | Vivekananda International Foundation
Moldova
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) Moldovan President Maia Sandu has won reelection in a hard-fought runoff, followed on the heels of an equally hard-fought referendum. The voting underscored chronic divisions in Moldovan society in both political and territorial terms. Russia and its local sympathizers seek to rehabilitate “Moldovan centrism,” a set of attitudes and policies balancing Moldova between Russia and the West. This approach predominated in Moldova until Sandu reoriented the country westward in 2020–2021. This presidential election was a dress rehearsal for the parliamentary elections due in July 2025. Moldova is a parliamentary republic, and those elections will determine the country’s future. Russia will aim to orchestrate a parliamentary majority of Moldovan “centrist” and Russophile groups. – Moldova Narrowly Avoids Losing Presidency to Russian Trojan Horse – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine – Belarus
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) Since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk oblast on August 12, the Kremlin has continued to delay its response, while Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has threatened further escalation if Ukraine does not halt its advances. Rumors indicate that Russia and Belarus may conduct joint exercises in response to the incursion, possibly involving tactical nuclear forces and establishing a layered air defense system. The upcoming joint military maneuvers are a standard form of covert concentration of strike and offensive forces for both diverting Ukrainian troops from critical directions and preparing a new attack from Belarusian soil against Ukraine. – Russia Responds to Kursk Incursion With Nuclear Exercise and Strategic Maneuvers in Belarus (Part 1) – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine – Eastern Europe
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s illegal annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and, more recently, its equally illegal absorption of Ukraine’s Donbas oblast illustrates the lack of respect Moscow has for Ukraine as a separate state. Kremlin officials are openly talking about changing all Ukraine’s current borders, not only those with Russia but others with countries to the west of Ukraine such as Poland and Hungary. Such talk suggests Russia’s plans to stir up revanchist sentiments in Eastern Europe against Ukraine, especially if a land for peace initiative some in the West are now urging did succeed. – Moscow Opens Pandora’s Box with New Talk About Changing Ukraine’s Western Borders – Jamestown
USA
(Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) In a landslide victory, former President Donald Trump has been elected to be the 47th president of the United States. This election was laden with the expectation that a dead heat would lead to delay, legal challenge, extremism, and possible violence. It has instead passed quickly, decisively, and peacefully. More than 67 million Americans who voted for Kamala Harris have demonstrated restraint and accepted the result. By this measure, democracy in the United States has prevailed. – The election shows that Trumpism is here to stay | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Elaine Kamarck – Brookings) Many expected that a gender gap in favor of Harris would counterbalance weaknesses in other parts of the electorate and help Harris win, but it didn’t happen. A method for protecting abortion (state referenda) had reduced the need for voters to vote for pro-choice candidates since they could still vote to keep abortion legal. On October 1, Trump, after a serious meeting with his staff where he was shown just how costly his support for abortion bans could be, issued a statement saying he would not support a federal abortion ban. – Women favored abortion rights but not Harris
(Gautam Chikermane – Observer Research Foundation) The return of Donald J. Trump as President of the world’s most powerful nation has great embedded expectations. From inward-looking domestic economic shifts to outward disruptions through international geopolitical swings, Trump’s presidency, over the next four years, is going to be unpredictable. And yet, in the overall sense of the recent shifts in global politics, the results are predictable. What is clear is that people across democracies are fed up with the Left and their stretched domains. Here, the power accorded to the fringes of the Left by agenda-chasing governments and ideology-driven media has delivered votes to the Right. –President Donald Trump and the next four years
USA – European Union
(Atlantic Council) This year marks a critical moment for the transatlantic relationship. Elections on both sides of the Atlantic will usher in new governments, administrations, and commissions for some 785 million people across the United States and European Union (EU). Transition and turnover for a new US administration and European Commission specifically offer a chance to reflect on what’s working in US-EU relations and to adapt what’s not. – Transatlantic horizons: A collaborative US-EU policy agenda for 2025 and beyond – Atlantic Council
USA – India
(Harsh V. Pant, Kartik Bommakanti – Observer Research Foundation) With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States, India-US defence ties will witness continuity and not a break from the past. Under Trump 2.0, the bilateral defence relationship will continue apace with continued push for arms sales by Washington. Under the first Trump Administration there were key reversals in military sales from the Obama Administration, which applied restrictions on military hardware such as the MQ-9 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). These are now being purchased by the all the three wings of Indian armed forces. If the previous experience under the first Trump Administration is any guide, Trump 2.0 will push for greater level of military and defence cooperation and not pursue a purely transactional approach to defence trade with India. Under the first Trump term there were key purchases made by India such as 72,400 Sig Sauer Assault Rifles, AH-64E Apache Attack helicopters and MH-60 Romeo Seahawk helicopters. – Trump 2.0 presents an opportunity for India to deepen defence ties
USA – Ukraine
(Peter Dickinson – Atlantic Council) Donald Trump’s election victory has sparked considerable disquiet in Ukraine, with many Ukrainians fearful that he may reduce or end US backing for the country once he takes office early next year. Trump provided Ukraine with significant military support during his first presidential term, but has also made a number of unfavorable statements that have led to questions over his commitment to the country’s struggle against Russian aggression. – Donald Trump’s election victory fuels hopes and fears in Ukraine – Atlantic Council
