From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: ASEAN-COP30; ASEAN-Malaysia; Asia-Pacific; Australia; Australia-Africa; Australia-US (National Security Strategy); Climate Action; Indonesia; Japan; Marshall Islands; Philippines-Germany; Thailand
ASEAN-COP30
(Elyssa Kaur Ludher, Paul Teng – FULCRUM) ASEAN member states can work together to strengthen their national agri-food sectors, building on the outcomes of the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. – COP30: Highlighting the Importance of the Agri-food and Forestry Sectors in Southeast Asia | FULCRUM
ASEAN-Malaysia
(Richard Javad Heydarian – Lowy The Interpreter) Malaysia ended its rotational chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) on a high note. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim managed to gather top leaders from around the world, most notably US President Donald Trump, who oversaw a new peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia following the latest border clashes in Indo-China. Malaysia, along with other major export-oriented ASEAN economies, also avoided extremely steep tariff rates initially threatened by Washington. Anwar also successfully oversaw both the expansion of the regional body to include Timor-Leste as well as the creation of a new partnership with the extremely wealthy and energy-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). – Head in sand, the way of the ASEAN ostrich | Lowy Institute
Asia-Pacific
(Helen Stenger, Phyu Phyu Oo – Lowy The Interpreter) Over the past two decades, disasters, pandemics and escalating displacement have cost the world millions of lives, trillions of dollars, and caused the forced migration of more than 14 million people in the Asia-Pacific alone. These crises destabilise gendered social systems, leading to heightened risk of violence against socially marginalised groups, including women, girls, and gender diverse individuals. In a recent scoping review we conducted with our co-authors, we found a clear pattern across the Indo-Pacific: every type of crisis increases violence against women, whether domestic violence, intimate partner violence, sexual violence or other forms of gender-based violence. – Cyclones to coups: Crises drive violence against women | Lowy Institute
Australia
(ASPI The Strategist) At ASPI’s Sydney Dialogue on 5 December, Director-General of National Intelligence Andrew Shearer reflected on major geopolitical trends. In a discussion with ASPI executive director Justin Bassi, Shearer said that ‘the biggest, most consequential change for Australia’ in the past few decades had been ‘the return of geopolitics,’ particularly the emergence of great power competition between US–China. At the same time, he remained generally optimistic, emphasising that history was not predetermined. Shearer will become Australia’s ambassador to Japan in early 2026. – Andrew Shearer on Australia’s geopolitical challenges | The Strategist
(Malcolm Davis – ASPI The Strategist) The Australian Defence Force needs to expand and accelerate acquisition of autonomous equipment to achieve a rapid increase in force-structure numbers and capability. This is necessary to reinforce Australia’s strategy of deterrence by denial and to be ready to protect sea lanes of communication as the country faces an increasingly powerful and assertive China. – ADF autonomous warfare: go big, go fast | The Strategist
Australia-Africa
(Christopher Burke – Lowy The Interpreter) The formidable challenges associated with the tyranny of distance for Africa’s 16 landlocked countries requires sophisticated, high-leverage strategy beyond conventional aid and capital deployment. Rather than trying to match the enormous financial resources of global heavyweights, Australia’s approach in Africa could be to deploy its unique domestic expertise forged across its own vast, remote continent to serve as an essential quality assurance partner for major global infrastructure investments. Concentration on high-value, low-capital interventions in remote logistics, governance and technical standards would directly complement Australia’s own commercial and security interests, particularly in the African extractives sector. – Landlocked Africa is an open opportunity for Australia | Lowy Institute
Australia-US (National Security Strategy)
(Courtney Stewart – ASPI The Strategist) Before its release on 4 December, the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS) had been expected to emphasise increased defence burden-sharing among allies and partners; a refresh of US priorities, placing ‘America First’; a more active US role in the Indo-Pacific; and deeper multi-domain interoperability. The strategy, which sets the United States’ security agenda until January 2029, delivers on those expectations, most notably by reconnecting ends and means in pursuit of core national interests. – What Trump’s National Security Strategy means for Australia | The Strategist
Climate Action
(Joel Jaeger – World Resources Institute) Electric vehicle sales have been growing exponentially due to falling costs, improving technology and government support. Globally, 22% of passenger vehicles sold in 2024 were electric. That’s 8 times higher than it was just five years earlier. But which countries are leading the pack? In terms of total passenger EV sales, China is the clear leader, with 11.3 million in 2024. It’s followed by the United States (1.5 million), Germany (570,000), the U.K. (550,000) and France (450,000). However, the picture changes when you look at EV sales as a share of all car sales. This gives a better idea of which countries are succeeding at electrifying their auto markets the fastest. – The Countries Adopting Electric Vehicles the Fastest | World Resources Institute
(Carolyn Neunuebel, Valerie Laxton and Laura Bulbena Janer – World Resources Institute) The destruction of the Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s most pressing ecological crises. It is also an economic crisis. The Amazon is home to 40 million people, most of whom rely on the forest for their livelihoods. It also supports the global economy, from generating rainfall essential to agriculture and water security, to providing medicinal resources, storing carbon and regulating the climate. It’s not just the Amazon; over half of global GDP is moderately or highly dependent on nature. But we’ve grown the economy in ways that degrade the natural systems upon which it relies. Halting and reversing nature degradation will require transforming the world’s financial flows. We need to eliminate funding that harms nature and significantly increase financing to protect, restore and sustainably manage it. – Development Banks Can Play Key Role in Protecting Nature | World Resources Institute
(Rod Taylor – World Resources Institute) The world’s forests are premium assets. They generate priceless benefits — from capturing carbon and generating rain to supplying food, medicine, wood and countless other products. But neglected forests can quickly turn into liabilities. Forests face growing threats from deforestation, encroachment and climate change. With their decline, we not only lose the bounty that healthy forests provide; changes to forest ecology are creating new threats to communities — escalating wildfires, exacerbated droughts and increased vulnerability to storms. We’re already starting to see this shift from assets to liabilities play out in countries around the globe. The question is: Will it trigger action? – Healthy Forests Are Assets. Degraded Ones Are Liabilities | World Resources Institute
(World Economic Forum) Despite recent headlines suggesting the climate transition is stalling, overall growth in green investments has not wavered. Worth over $5 trillion per year – the green economy is the world’s most dynamic growth sector after technology. Green revenues are growing twice as fast as conventional revenues on average and companies operating in these markets typically gain access to cheaper capital and often enjoy premium valuations on capital markets. – Already a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market: CEO Guide to Growth in the Green Economy | World Economic Forum
Indonesia
(Siwage Dharma Negara, Leo Suryadinata – FULCRUM) Indonesia’s sovereign investment vehicle, Danantara, has pulled off a high-profile domestic fundraising round, amounting to IDR51.75 trillion (US$3 billion), to support national strategic programmes. The so-called ‘Patriot’ bond, which represents a more formalised version of Indonesia’s long-standing state business model, was quickly taken up by many Indonesian conglomerates. Danantara’s mobilisation of elite private capital to support future and ongoing state projects takes a leaf from previous administrations. In the New Order, then President Suharto asked some conglomerates to transfer one per cent of their share capital to farmers and cooperatives. Former president Joko Widodo (Jokowi) asked Indonesian conglomerates to contribute to the construction of Nusantara, the planned new capital city that was his pet project. – Indonesia’s Tycoons Pressed into National Service, Once Again | FULCRUM
(Hilman Palaon – Lowy The Interpreter) As the floodwaters in Sumatra started to recede, the full extent of the devastation became painfully clear: more than 800 lives lost, over 3.2 million people affected and entire communities left underwater. It ticked every box for national disaster status. Yet President Prabowo Subianto never declared it, insisting the situation remained manageable. That decision kept emergency funds locked behind bureaucratic red tape, prevented ministries from rapidly reallocating budgets, and blocked formal channels for international assistance. This is not a lament about disaster management – it is about reactionary governance. Indonesia is stuck in a never-ending loop: disaster strikes, the government scrambles to respond, fine-sounding promises flow, attention fades, and the cycle starts again. – Sumatra floods: Indonesia stuck in a cycle of crisis management | Lowy Institute
Japan
(East Asia Forum) Japan’s economic agenda under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi promises monetary easing, fiscal expansion and heavy state-led investment, but its internal contradictions risk worsening stagflation rather than restoring growth. While cash handouts, subsidies and ambitious industrial policies echo the style more than the substance of Abenomics, they are being pursued in a different context that could ultimately add to inflationary pressures without tackling the structural reforms needed to revive productivity. With the rising cost of debt, a weakening yen and shaky political support, Takaichi is vulnerable to market backlash. – Sanaenomics’ fiscal arithmetic doesn’t add up | East Asia Forum
Marshall Islands
(Monique Taylor – Lowy The Interpreter) The Republic of the Marshall Islands is embarking on one of the world’s most ambitious experiments in universal basic income (UBI). Beginning on 26 November 2025, the government introduced a nationwide UBI scheme that provides regular cash transfers to all resident Marshallese citizens, including children. Given its status as a remote island state with a small tax base, high aid dependence and acute climate vulnerability, the country’s UBI program represents an unusually bold effort to transform external resources into a direct and undiluted citizen entitlement. – The Marshall Islands’ experiment with a universal basic income | Lowy Institute
Philippines-Germany
(Frances Mangosing – FULCRUM) The Philippines and Germany have entered a new chapter in their bilateral relations this year, placing special emphasis on tightening security and defence ties. In May 2025, Manila and Berlin committed themselves to advancing their security partnership when they signed an “agreement concerning defence cooperation”. The deal specifically increases collaboration between their military and defence establishments in the areas of logistics, cybersecurity, defensive weaponry, and UN peacekeeping. It builds on the 1974 Administrative Agreement on the training of Armed Forces of the Philippines personnel in Germany. – The Philippines and Germany Enter a New Era of Defence Cooperation | FULCRUM
Thailand
(Surachanee Sriyai – FULCRUM) Scroll through Thai social media feeds these days, and you will find a new mantra floating around: #เงินอยู่ในอากาศ, or “money is in the air”. Originated from a Thai series on Netflix, Mad Unicorn, the phrase is now being used by netizens eagerly sharing posts that boast about how they have turned their social media content into quick cash. Some flaunt screenshots of their earnings, others parade photos, real or AI-generated, of lavish lifestyles that are non-existent. To the casual viewer, it looks like all it takes is savvy content creation, minimal investment, and viral engagement to transform your life overnight, just like how the show implied that opportunities for a better life were always out there for grabs. But beneath the glimmer lies a much darker matrix of illusion, manipulation, and structural risk. – Money in the Air: The Mirage of the Get-Rich-Quick Online Culture in Thailand | FULCRUM
(Termsak Chalermpalanupap – FULCRUM) Thailand’s jailed former Prime Minister (PM) Thaksin Shinawatra, 76, has been unexpectedly dealt a double blow that threatens to dash his hope for an early release under parole and scuttle his plan to revive his embattled Pheu Thai (PT) Party to contest in the upcoming general election (GE), which is likely to be held early next year. In the worst-case scenario, Thaksin’s political dynasty will come to an inglorious end. First, the Attorney General (AG) Itthiporn Kaewthip revealed on 17 November morning his decision to appeal against Thaksin’s acquittal for a lèse-majesté charge. – A Double Blow to Thaksin Signals the End of His Political Dynasty | FULCRUM
