Complex research (by Marco Emanuele):
Distinzioni fondamentali / Fundamental distinctions | The Global Eye
L’assoluto della sicurezza lineare / Absolute linear security | The Global Eye
Disumanità / Inhumanity | The Global Eye
From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Afghanistan; Africa; Burkina Faso-Indo Pacific; Cambodia; China; China-Taiwan; Europe-US; Gaza-Israel; Indian Ocean-Australia-France; Iran; Landlocked Developing Countries-Climate Action; Middle East (Hezbollah Disarmament-Hezbollah Reconstitution-Iranian National Security Appointments-Iraqi Militia Political Maneuverings-Druze-Syrian Government Relations); Myanmar; Northern Australia; Russia-Ukraine; Sahel; Sudan; US-Brazil; US-Colombia-Venezuela; US-India
Afghanistan
(UN News) The international community must provide greater support to Afghan women and girl returnees from Iran and Pakistan who face increased risk of impoverishment, early marriage and growing threats to their rights and safety. UN Women – which champions gender empowerment and equality – alongside the international humanitarian agency CARE International and partners, issued the call in a report published on Thursday that also highlights the key challenges and needs of women aid workers assisting the returnees. The Gender Alert comes amid a surge in returnees to Afghanistan, where the Taliban has ruled for four years, implementing numerous decrees that restrict women’s rights amid economic crisis, climate shocks and immense humanitarian needs. – Afghan women returnees face rising risks, UN warns | UN News
Africa
(Liam Karr, Yale Ford, Edlawit Tesfaye, and Calvin Hodges – Institute for the Study of War) Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels will likely remain involved in the Qatari-led peace talks and the broader US-backed peace framework—despite various challenges—to reap the dividends of US engagement. Both sides have been unwilling to make concessions on M23’s territorial control, however, which will likely prolong talks and make a sustainable long-term agreement unlikely. – Somalia. Infighting between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and Jubbaland state in southern Somalia has resumed since the beginning of July for the first time since December 2024. Tensions between Ethiopia and the SFG could also fuel the conflict. – Mozambique. IS Mozambique Province conducted a series of attacks in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province since late July that has displaced thousands. ISMP launched the offensive south of its typical area of operations, likely to evade counterinsurgency pressure, capitalize on overstretched security forces, and boost its propaganda output. – DRC-M23 Peace Prospects: Africa File, August 7, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Burkina Faso – Indo Pacific
(Jennifer Williams, Nava Nuraniyah, Jordon Borg, Julian Droogan – The Interpreter) The Indo-Pacific region has witnessed a case of travelling disinformation from Africa that has been adapted to suit the local context. Africa is a known hotbed for information warfare. The western African nation of Burkina Faso is especially infamous for the deepfake videos of its junta leader, Ibrahim Traoré, being praised by American celebrities. Fabricated content of his fictional debate with Donald Trump has also circulated and made its way into the region. In our ethnographic monitoring of the Indo-Pacific social media environment, we observed a sudden influx of Traoré-related content. In Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands, this influx began in early April, mirroring international posting patterns on X. In Indonesia, Traoré-related posts emerged in late June and peaked in July. – How Burkina Faso’s strongman became the Indo-Pacific’s unlikely hero – and other tales of disinformation | Lowy Institute
Cambodia
(Andre Kwok – Lowy The Interpreter) As Asia’s first post-war international tribunal, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) stands as a significant experiment. Established in 2003 after lengthy negotiations between the Cambodian government and the United Nations, it served as a hybrid court that prosecuted senior leaders of the Khmer Rouge regime. Despite criticisms over its cost, delay and limited number of convictions, the tribunal made important contributions, including recognising forced marriage as a crime against humanity and convicting the world’s first former head of state for genocide. But the residual mandate for the ECCC – functions that begun in 2023, include administrating archives, monitoring reparations and leading large-scale outreach across Cambodia’s provinces – was originally scheduled to conclude this year. That deadline has now been extended to 2027, with Cambodia proposing a new national institution to succeed the ECCC. – Cambodia takes control of its war crimes legacy | Lowy Institute
China
(Henry Storey – Lowy The Interpreter) China’s attitude towards the problem of overcapacity has been, in a word, contradictory. Speaking at a China–France–European Union trilateral in May last year, President Xi Jinping assured his hosts that “there is no such thing as China’s overcapacity problem”. China’s ability to undercut rivals across a plethora of sectors was due to its “comparative advantage”. If China was producing much more than it – or indeed the entire world – could consume in sectors such as solar panels and lithium-ion batteries, the problem was insufficient global demand. The Middle Kingdom abhors being lectured to by foreigners. However, even if overcapacity was dismissed as being a figment of barbarians’ febrile imagination, Beijing’s leadership has acknowledged for some time the problem of neijuan or “involution”. Just a couple of months after Xi blithely dismissed European concerns, he warned the Politburo to guard against “neijuan-style vicious competition”. – Too much of a good thing: Will China finally commit to solving overcapacity? | Lowy Institute
China – Taiwan
(Jane Rickards – ASPI The Strategist) Since March, China has been making a splash with manoeuvres off its south coast involving a line of odd-looking barges with retractable legs that work like giant stilts. Taiwanese analysts aren’t impressed, however. The barges have towers at their fronts that convert to long, drop-down bridges, so the vessels can connect to each other. If the first barge in a line of them touches the land, they can form a pier standing on the seabed and extending 800 metres or more to deeper water. Chinese soldiers, equipment and supplies could be offloaded from big ships that need that water depth, and the invasion force would have less need for ports. Or so the theory goes. – Taiwanese analysts sceptical about China’s barges with legs | The Strategist
Europe – US
(Torrey Taussig and Josh Lipsky – Atlantic Council) Finalized in Scotland on July 27, the preliminary trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) stands out as one of only eight deals secured by the United States in advance of the Trump administration’s August 1 reciprocal tariff deadline. While the bloc avoided the threatened 30 percent tariff on all EU imports, the deal puts in place a 15 percent tariff on hundreds of EU goods from cars to wine to machinery. Not only does the deal leave many in Europe unhappy about the consequences for Europe’s businesses, it also comes on the heels of a major defense spending pledge NATO allies announced at the Alliance’s summit in June, when allies agreed to raise their national defense spending targets from 2 percent to 5 percent of their economies over the next decade (including defense-related spending). On the surface, the trade deal is a major European concession to US economic demands. But seen through a security lens, both the trade deal and NATO’s defense spending pledge can be viewed as part of a short-term European strategy to keep their most important ally engaged on security and defense matters in which Europe remains overwhelmingly dependent on the United States. Will Europe’s strategy work, and at what expense for Europe’s own political and economic cohesion? – Europe’s play to keep Trump happy cannot come at the expense of a longer-term strategy – Atlantic Council
Gaza – Israel
(UN News) Acute malnutrition among children in Gaza has reached the highest levels to date as hunger continues to deepen in the enclave, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported on Thursday. In July alone, nearly 12,000 children under five were identified as acutely malnourished out of 136,000 screened, according to aid partners. Of these, more than 2,500 were found to suffer from severe acute malnutrition, the most life-threatening form, and 40 had to be hospitalized in stabilisation centres. – Gaza: Acute malnutrition among children hits record high | UN News
(The Soufan Center) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to reoccupy all of the Gaza Strip has caused tensions with his defense establishment and with his allies in Washington. Top Israel Defense Forces (IDF) leaders and the families of remaining Israeli hostages are trying to scuttle the re-occupation plan, arguing it will cause extensive IDF and Palestinian casualties and the death of the remaining hostages. Opposed to expanded Israeli military action in Gaza, Trump officials are pressuring Netanyahu to accept war-ending governance and security arrangements he has rejected to date. The re-occupation plan will undermine Israel’s efforts to mitigate the global isolation it is facing as a consequence of the severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza. – Plan to Reoccupy Gaza Further Isolates Israel – The Soufan Center
(UN News) Exhausted UN aid workers in Gaza on Thursday continued to report a lack of food across the enclave, while medical teams warned that hospitals are overwhelmed by a daily influx of injured people and close to “near-total collapse”. Meanwhile, UN agencies confirmed the deaths of three Palestinians from Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS), a rare auto-immune disease that can cause sudden muscle weakness and even paralysis. Before war erupted in Gaza in October 2023, only a handful of cases surfaced every year. – Gaza: Hospitals ‘at near-total collapse’, staff overwhelmed by the injured | UN News
(Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) From the very beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip that started with Hamas’s killing spree on October 7, 2023, there has been a deep and abiding disconnect between the United States and Israel. Both U.S. Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump have sought to paper over these differences with rhetoric vowing to support Israeli efforts to destroy Hamas, but throughout the last twenty-two months of bloodshed and suffering, the United States and Israel have sought different outcomes. Put plainly, the Israeli government is seeking victory while both Biden and Trump have pushed ceasefire deals. Israel’s belief that it can rely on its military power alone to improve the country’s security and, in turn, transform the Middle East is mistaken, however. There is a real risk of Israeli overreach that will undermine, or at least diminish, the gains that the Israel Defense Force (IDF) has made in almost two years of war. Indeed, the current mess over the provision of humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza is a direct result of Israel’s post-October 7 desire to resolve its security problems rather than manage them. – Israel Risks Overplaying Its Hand in Gaza and the Middle East | Council on Foreign Relations
Indian Ocean – Australia – France
(Jean-Rene Degans and Eric Frecon – ASPI The Strategist) Australia is already under a lot of expectation in the Pacific Ocean, as the United States reduces its aid program and China is busy exploring trenches there. So an expanded presence in the Indian Ocean, too, may seem a bit too much for Australia. It gives no sign of thinking so, appointing former assistant minister for foreign affairs Tim Watts as a special envoy for Indian Ocean affairs in May and giving a patrol boat to the Maldives in June. Australia could make its Indian Ocean tasks easier by deepening cooperation with France, with which it shares maritime boundaries in the southern Indian Ocean. A first, quick-win step could be for France to continue providing Australia greater access to bases and to maximise it, as mentioned in the Australia-France Roadmap for bilateral cooperation. – In securing the Indian Ocean, Australia and France are stronger together | The Strategist
Iran
(Joseph Rodgers, Heather Williams, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. – Center for Strategic & International Studies) In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, “Operation Midnight Hammer,” policymakers and experts launched into a heated debate not only about the physical damage of the strikes but also about their impact on Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions. On the one hand, former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director David Petraeus concluded that the strikes did significant damage and cautioned against overinterpreting the leaked Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment, which stated that the strikes had a limited effect, written with “low confidence.” Conversely, some journalists and experts argued the strikes “backfired” and caused the Iranian regime to be more defiant. – Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild?
Landlocked Developing Countries – Climate Action
(UN News) Countries agreed Thursday to form a new climate negotiating bloc to advocate for the unique needs of nations without direct access to the sea. The decision was reached at the Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDC3), currently under way in Awaza, Turkmenistan. Operating within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the group aims to amplify their voices in global climate talks, where their distinct vulnerabilities have long been overlooked. – Facing rising risks, landlocked nations launch climate alliance at UN summit | UN News
Middle East (Hezbollah Disarmament – Hezbollah Reconstitution – Iranian National Security Appointments – Iraqi Militia Political Maneuverings – Druze-Syrian Government Relations)
Hezbollah Disarmament: The Lebanese Council of Ministers agreed on August 7 to the objectives of US Envoy Thomas Barrack’s proposal to disarm Hezbollah.
Hezbollah Reconstitution: Iranian officials and Axis-affiliated media recently reported that Hezbollah has begun to reconstitute its command structure, but it is very unlikely that Hezbollah could rebuild its units to the level of proficiency the units had before the war. Hezbollah also faces several significant challenges that will complicate its ability to reconstitute.
Iranian National Security Appointments: Iranian media outlet Nour News proposed on August 7 that the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) will likely increase its focus on domestic security, while still prioritizing foreign policy. Nour News also attributed Larijani’s appointment to the SNSC, as well as the SNSC’s formation of the Defense Council, to the “current security conditions,” including “the possibility of a renewed enemy [Israeli or US] attack” on Iran.
Iraqi Militia Political Maneuverings: Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah is attempting to use the Shia Coordination Framework as a vehicle to sideline the Sudani administration ahead of the November 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections. The Shia Coordination Framework groups are now in increasing competition with one another ahead of the November 2025 Iraqi parliamentary elections, which will make it more difficult for Kataib Hezbollah to build a political coalition to sideline Sudani.
Druze-Syrian Government Relations: Druze rhetoric and actions that are hostile to the Syrian government demonstrate the deep barriers to reconciliation and lack of trust between the transitional government and the Druze community. A committee formed by prominent Druze Sheikh Hikmat al Hijri announced the formation of a “temporary” autonomous government for Suwayda Province on August 6. – Iran Update, August 7, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Myanmar
(Sean Turnell – Lowy The Interpreter) As in most conflicts, Myanmar’s wars are being fought in the financial realm as much as they are physical and kinetic. For the military junta trying to destroy resistance to their rule, this financial war is executed by its control of the traditional fiscal and monetary vehicles of the state – the taxation system, tariffs, licence and customs duties, the earnings of state-owned enterprises, and through the use of the unique powers of the central bank. Amidst the declining economy since the coup of February 2021, it is the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) that has become the lynchpin of the junta’s financing. The most obvious component of this is via the credit it provides – metaphorically “printing money” via book entries in the state accounts, and in actually printing physical cash at the CBM’s note-printing works. Printing cash (time honoured in Myanmar) is usually only limited by the lack of note-quality paper, and wear and tear of the printing plates. Of course, this expedient comes at the cost of high inflation and monetary instability. At nearly 30 per cent according to the World Bank, inflation in Myanmar is by far the highest in the region, while the exchange rate of the country’s currency, the kyat, is down 80 per cent against the US dollar since the coup. – Myanmar’s other war: The battle for financial control | Lowy Institute
Northern Australia
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) A timely new report on northern Australia by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments does well by identifying the strategic significance of that part of the continent. But it could do better in understanding nuances and practical issues that arise there. As the Indo-Pacific Stronghold report appreciates, northern Australia offers proximity to the Indo-Pacific’s contested maritime domains and can serve as a gateway to Southeast Asia and staging point for operations across the region. The logic of hardening bases there is sound. Moreover, Australia’s interest in a resilient, secure and economically viable north aligns with the broader objectives of its major defence partnerships, including AUKUS and ANZUS. – Yes, northern Australia can be a stronghold. But achieving that isn’t simple | The Strategist
Russia – Ukraine
(Paul Conroy, Eloise Herdegen, and Karolina Hird – Institute for the Study of War) Russian occupation authorities are using a military-patriotic program that valorizes the Soviet military to indoctrinate Ukrainian youth. Russian regional officials continue to implicate themselves in Russia’s wider campaign of using summer camp programs for the deportation and indoctrination of Ukrainian children. A Russian company associated with a prominent Kremlin-linked oligarch recently bought and privatized the occupied Port of Yalta in Crimea, supporting Kremlin efforts to award loyalists with a stake in Russia’s occupation project. Russian occupation administrations are also focusing on developing the tourist potential of occupied Ukraine using assets such as the Port of Yalta. Russian Occupation Update, August 7, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(Kateryna Stepanenko – Institute for the Study of War) The Russian integration of combined unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack tactics and adaptations is giving Russian forces important advantages on the battlefield in Ukraine and facilitating Russian advances on key Ukrainian towns. Russian UAV adaptations are likely achieving some effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI): The use of airpower to strike targets in the near rear of the frontline to impact battlefield operations in the near term. Neither Ukraine nor Russia has been able to conduct BAI using manned aircraft or UAVs due to the density and sophistication of adversary air defenses and electronic warfare (EW) over the past three years, but Russian forces are now achieving partial BAI effects in support of their offensives. Russia’s allies, especially the People’s Republic of China (PRC), have enabled Russia to develop and scale the production of UAVs that are more resistant to EW interference and capable of operating at longer distances, higher speeds, and in challenging environments. Ukraine and its partners must invest urgently in kinetic anti-drone systems that are not reliant on EW to secure near-rear areas and, ultimately, frontline positions as well. – Russian Drone Innovations are Likely Achieving Effects of Battlefield Air Interdiction in Ukraine | Institute for the Study of War
Sahel
(UN News) In Africa’s Sahel region, deepening violence and poverty – driven by displacement, hunger and terrorism – are stripping women and girls of their right to safety, education and a viable future. Risks to women and girls across this vast region are severe and systemic, as political instability, environmental collapse and a declining international presence take their toll. From abductions and child marriage to exclusion from schools and public life, their lives and opportunities are being steadily stripped away, Sima Bahous, Executive Director of UN Women, told ambassadors in the Security Council on Thursday. “In the Sahel, where the world’s gravest concerns converge, women and girls bear the brunt,” she said. She added that crises due to increasing terrorism, poverty, hunger, a crumbling aid system and shrinking civic space are “converging – violently and disproportionately – on their bodies and their futures.” – Erasure or empowerment? In Africa’s Sahel, women confront a stark choice | UN News
Sudan
(UN News) Hungry civilians are reportedly eating animal feed as women and girls face a “gender emergency” in war-torn Sudan, UN officials said on Thursday. Particularly hard hit is El Fasher, where hunger is growing, with the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) warning of a deteriorating situation that is putting even more civilians’ lives at risk. OCHA’s Director of Operations and Advocacy, Edem Wosornu, who is currently in the country, said the suffering is immense, with people trapped, displaced or returning to face communities in ruins. She called for unimpeded access and urgent support to reach those on the frontlines of hardship. Briefing reporters at UN Headquarters in New York, UN Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq said “with increasingly alarming food shortages and spiraling prices, people in El Fasher are reported to be resorting to eating animal feed in what is an increasingly catastrophic situation.” – UN officials warn of starvation amid ‘gender emergency’ in war-torn Sudan | UN News
US – Brazil
(Thayz Guimarães – Atlantic Council) US President Donald Trump is turning up the heat on Brazil, with a 50 percent tariff on many Brazilian imports to the United States that took effect Wednesday. While Brazil is being hit with one of the highest tariff rates imposed on any country, Trump is also granting 694 exceptions for approximately four thousand products. This includes Embraer aircraft, orange juice, pig iron, and petroleum—but not coffee or meat, which are two important markets for Brazil. Many Brazilian government and business leaders appear somewhat relieved with this mixed outcome, having feared it would be worse. Moreover, this outcome is potentially an opening for more exemptions and for negotiations over a reduction in the overall tariff. In other words, nothing about this week’s outcome is taken as final. The tariff saga will continue. Already, however, it has produced some unexpected political and geopolitical consequences for Brazil. To begin with, Trump’s tariffs have not halted the trial of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for an attempted coup d’état in January 2023, as the White House appears to have hoped. Instead, Trump is encouraging a modest “rally around the flag” effect in Brazil that benefits the Lula administration, which replaced the Bolsonaro administration. That is on the political side. On the geopolitical side, the US tariffs appear to be accelerating Brazil’s turn away from the United States and toward powers such as China. Both could continue as the back and forth over the tariff rates and exemptions continues. – Trump’s tariffs are giving Lula a boost and shifting Brazil’s geopolitics – Atlantic Council
US – Colombia – Venezuela
(Lucie Kneip, Geoff Ramsey – Atlantic Council) While the United States seeks to prevent more migration from Venezuela, the strain of hosting 2.8 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees is putting Colombia on the back foot in its fight against transnational criminal groups. Bilateral efforts to improve security cooperation, reduce irregular migration sustainably, and improve opportunities for Venezuelan migrants and refugees in Colombia can benefit both countries. Colombia must balance between asserting regional leadership in managing the Venezuelan crisis—which requires a clear strategy—and keeping a communication channel open without legitimating Nicolas Maduro’s rule. – How the US and Colombia can tackle crime, migration, and fallout from Venezuela’s crisis – Atlantic Council
US – India
(Richard M. Rossow – Center for Strategic & International Studies) A U.S.-India trade agreement is about more than commerce. It is about security. In an effort to push India to cross unreasonable thresholds on agriculture market access, the Trump administration is depleting the reservoir of trust that both nations have painstakingly built over a generation. Notably, the administration’s August 6 executive order adds an additional 25 percent tariff on India in response to India’s purchases of Russian oil. Despite the “doom and gloom” and memories of 1998 and 2013, ties can still be largely repaired if the United States chooses. But this requires a deeper appreciation for India’s true “redlines” on agriculture market access and a consistent approach to Russia. The U.S.-India wider strategic relationship is at serious risk. – After New Tariffs, Trust Between the United States and India Is Running Low
