Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Liam Karr, Lilya Yatim – Institute for the Study of War)
Ukraine. Mali and Niger cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine and other West African countries have criticized Ukraine after some Ukrainian officials claimed to support Tuareg separatist rebels in northern Mali. The moves from the pro-Russian Sahelian juntas are unsurprising, but countries not aligned with Russia have also criticized Ukraine. This criticism comes as Ukraine is trying to strengthen cooperation with West Africa to counter Russia’s growing influence in the region.
Turkey. Turkey’s parliament approved a motion to deploy its naval forces to Somalia as it seeks to implement deals signed in early 2024 that will make Turkey the main security force in Somali waters over the next two years as it builds the Somali Navy’s capacity. Somalia likely intends to use its partnership with Turkey to counter Ethiopia’s controversial port agreement with the de facto independent breakaway Somaliland region. Turkey’s growing influence in Somalia is a major economic and geopolitical gain for Turkey that could jeopardize its ties with Ethiopia and shape the Turkish-Emirati rivalry in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa.
Somalia. Al Shabaab carried out its deadliest attack in Mogadishu since October 2022, which may be an effort to degrade government and popular morale after recent Somali Federal Government counterinsurgency operations. Africa File, August 8, 2024: Mali-Ukraine Dispute; Turkey Prepares to Ship Out to Somalia | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Ebenezer Obadare – Brookings) Following his ouster in a military coup d’etat, which brought the decades-long rule of the Bongo family in Gabon to an unceremonious end, former president Ali Bongo Ondimba urged his citizens to resist the junta and “make noise” to save their democracy. Not only was president Bongo’s call to stand up to the soldiers rebuffed, ordinary Gabonese took to the streets to welcome them and express relief at the termination of a democratic dispensation that was widely seen as having failed to live up to its billing. For Gabonese citizens, it was not so much that the army was welcome as that civilian rule had proved to be a huge anticlimax. How African governments can regain the trust of their citizens | Brookings
(Hakeem Alade Najimdeen – Al Jazeera Centre for Studies) African countries are witnessing a series of youth-led protests to express their opposition to socio-economic crises and demand that decision-makers put an end to various political issues. These protests highlight the nature of the ongoing social and economic challenges in Africa and indicate several implications for these countries. The Rise of Youth Protests in Sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns and Implications | Al Jazeera Centre for Studies
Asia
(ADB Institute) The Rail-Plus-Property model synergizes railway development with property investments through land value capture to foster strategic urban development.
Key success factors to all integrated rail-property development include sophisticated urban environments, secure land use rights, holistic planning approaches, supportive zoning systems, and robust legal frameworks for creating and maximizing land value appreciation. Unique to the Rail-Plus-Property model is the railway agency’s exclusive development rights and its entrepreneurial initiative and robust in-house expertise in railway, property, and business domains. The model provides a financing tool for railway agencies while relieving the government’s fiscal burden. By aligning with transit-oriented development principles, it can increase public transit usage, reduce road congestion, lower transportation costs, mitigate air pollution, and conserve energy. Developing Asia shows potential for adopting the Rail-Plus-Property model. Challenges like unclear land ownership hinder direct replication, yet lessons in private sector involvement and elements of land value capture and transit-oriented development offer valuable insights. Unleashing the Full Potential of Private Participation in Railway Development in Developing Asia: Perspective from the Rail-Plus-Property Model | Asian Development Bank (adb.org)
Bangladesh
(Aarti Betigeri- Lowy The Interpreter) What a wild ride 2024 has been for Mohammad Yunus. In June, he was indicted on charges of embezzlement, while on 1 January he was found guilty of labour law violations, for which he faced the prospect of six months in jail. Now, he’s suddenly found himself in the country’s top job. In the past 48 hours, the renowned economist and Nobel laureate was named the interim prime minister of Bangladesh, replacing his arch-nemesis Sheikh Hasina after her spectacular fall from grace this week. Bangladesh: The economist turned saviour | Lowy Institute
(Chietigj Bajpaee, Patrick Schröder – Chatham House) The resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina after anti-government protests has been celebrated by many in Bangladesh as a ‘second liberation’. Yet the ousting of the world’s longest-serving female leader also marks the most critical political situation in the country since the revolution in 1971. The turmoil reflects underlying fissures in Bangladesh’s politics, economy and security situation. Sheikh Hasina’s departure exposes the fractures in Bangladesh’s politics | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
China – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) In April 2022, during his address at the Boao Forum for the Asia Annual Conference, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the ambitious Global Security Initiative (GSI). He presented GSI as a comprehensive framework for addressing global security challenges, including maintaining global security, enhancing coordination among regional organisations, and addressing diverse challenges ranging from traditional conflicts to climate change to cybersecurity. China rarely participated in international mediation initiatives, preferring to be a neutral onlooker and retain its flexibility. Therefore, the new Chinese position in global security issues and its true objective became a matter of debate. China’s conflict resolution mechanism in Africa: Mediation with Chinese characteristics (orfonline.org)
China – South China Sea
(Lye Liang Fook – FULCRUM) China has filed reports on environmental protection in the South China Sea to counter the Philippines’ claim of severe damage to the marine ecosystem at Scarborough Shoal and thwart Manila’s effort to file a legal case against China. But Beijing’s efforts provoke some serious questions about its motivations. China’s Environmental Focus in South China Sea: Questionable Motivations | FULCRUM
China – Tibet – India
(Tenzin Younten – Center for Land Warfare Studies) On July 17, 2024, China officially established its first Border Construction and Development Department (边境建设和发展局) in Gar Border County, which borders India’s Ladakh. This new local border department is primarily tasked with accelerating infrastructure development, enhancing border security, and addressing ongoing disputes with India. The recent institutional reforms in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) are expected to “benefit the region’s stability and development, as well as its ecological work and intensification of border management”, according to Global Times. Zhang Yongpan, a research fellow at the Institute of Chinese Borderland Studies, anticipates that the reform will increase funding and innovation for border infrastructure in TAR. The creation of this new Department near Line of Actual Control (LAC) areas intensifies Beijing’s ever-expanding influence in the tense border with India through burgeoning military, trade, and demographic presence. This new strategic Department is part of major institutional reforms undertaken at the county-level government across the TAR, which has widely gone unnoticed. China’s New Border Department in Tibet accelerates infrastructure buildup near India : Deciphering its strategic goals and implications – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
Climate Action, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development
(Trang Nguyen – Lowy The Interpreter) Australia’s economic future has long been intertwined with fossil fuels, which still make up 20 per cent of its export earnings. Yet the latest global data tells us a new economic reality is on the horizon, one that’s driven by green growth. In this regard, the global economic paradigm has shifted dramatically over the past decade. Clean energy sectors, including manufacturing, clean power generation, and technology sales, have now started to drive global GDP growth. Is Australia too late to claim its green economy share? | Lowy Institute
(Alice C. Hill – Council on Foreign Relations) The Supreme Court’s recent ruling to limit federal agencies’ power to interpret laws will have major implications for U.S. climate and environmental policies. The U.S. Supreme Court’s Chevron Deference Ruling Will Disrupt Climate Policy | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Helena Varkkey, Michelle Miller, Matthew Ashfold – FULCRUM) Carbon-rich peat ecosystems hold great potential to mitigate climate change, and help meet Southeast Asian national climate targets. The increased priority and action on peatlands must be continued from COP28 into this November’s COP29. Peatlands and the Climate: This year’s COP29 must build on COP28 | FULCRUM
(ADB Institute) Although sanitation is on the international development agenda, billions lack access to safely managed services. Classifying sanitation as sewered or non-sewered oversimplifies urban sanitation, falsely linking solution types to income levels. Progress in Sustainable Development Goal indicators 6.2.1 and 6.3.1 does not capture the complexity of urban sanitation and miscalculates safely managed services and safely treated wastewater, as seen in India and Thailand. Citywide Inclusive Sanitation (CWIS) ensures equitable access to improved sanitation for urban residents, integrating innovative service models that incorporate climate resilience and water reuse. Financing CWIS needs to consider diverse, contextually appropriate solutions; the enabling environment (political, social, economic, and cultural aspects); and innovative mechanisms (long-term financing, synergistic, and modular investments). Implementing CWIS requires concerted efforts, strong partnerships across sectors, addressing operational challenges, fostering governance, and integrating sanitation into urban development. Successful initiatives counter low political priority and demonstrate the economic value of CWIS. Citywide Inclusive Sanitation: Aligning Investments with the Global Sanitation and Wastewater Goals | Asian Development Bank (adb.org)
(Ieva Baršauskaitė – International Institute for Sustainable Development) Plastic products have a finite lifespan, and their presence is ubiquitous in the natural environment. From discarded water bottles on the side of the road to microplastics found even in breast milk, plastic pollution is simply everywhere. Because the wide breadth of human and environmental problems associated with plastics is now well known, governments and civil society groups are working to address the problem. Avoiding a Trade Crisis as Countries Look to Phase Out Plastic Pollution | International Institute for Sustainable Development (iisd.org)
(Famke Schaap, Astrid Karamira – International Institute for Sustainable Development) This report critically examines the mining sector’s role in the global energy transition and its alignment with international climate commitments. Recognizing the urgent need to decarbonize to address climate change, this scoping study provides an in-depth analysis of the mining industry’s current status, challenges, and opportunities in participating in the global effort to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Decarbonization of the Mining Sector | International Institute for Sustainable Development (iisd.org)
(Lukas Schaugg, Suzy H. Nikièma – International Institute for Sustainable Development) Major foreign investments in the fossil fuel sector flow between the European Union (EU) and other contracting parties of the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT). This brief demonstrates that an inter se modification of the ECT to neutralize its survival clause complies with the law of treaties and would prevent such investments from generating investment arbitration risks in the future. It also proposes a model inter se agreement that can be used as a basis for negotiation. Model Inter Se Agreement to Neutralize the Survival Clause of the Energy Charter Treaty Between the EU and Other non-EU Contracting Parties | International Institute for Sustainable Development (iisd.org)
Global Risks
(Ika Idris – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Governments worldwide have banned TikTok due to concerns about propaganda, hate speech, manipulative content, provocative campaigns, harm to children, threats of terrorism, data privacy, and possible access to government information. At least 34 countries have banned or are banning the popular video-based platform, which currently has over a billion users worldwide. The United States, the second country with the most users, has banned TikTok for data security concerns, worrying that its China-based parent company ByteDance will share data with the Chinese government and use it to influence the US election. Deceptive Trends: The Societal Impact of Disinformation on TikTok – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Valerie Wirtschafter – Brookings) Earlier this year, leaders from government, civil society, business, and international organizations met at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. There they revealed results from a survey of 1,400 experts, policymakers, and private sector representatives that highlighted mis- and disinformation as the greatest short-term risk facing the world. Part of the concern reflected in the survey results stems from three simultaneous developments: new tools for creating fake content, unprecedented opportunity, and an exceedingly motivated actor. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, generative AI has captured public imagination and raised concerns about the deceptive nature of AI-generated images, video, text, and audio. In tandem, 2024 promised to be a marquee year for elections—with more than 60 countries and nearly half the world’s population heading to the polls to cast their votes. The final concern was that Russia—a prominent actor in the disinformation space—was particularly motivated to meddle this year. A sharp turn on the political trajectories of Western democracies backing Ukraine could be a boon for the Kremlin’s war goals. Are concerns about digital disinformation and elections overblown? | Brookings
India – Russia
(Mansi Parashar – RIAC) “Privet Moskva! Kak dela?” asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as he took the stage to address the large Indian diaspora that had gathered to see him in Moscow. A couple of months have passed, yet the takeaways of Modi’s trip to Moscow remain evident. Over the last few years, more and more Indians have come to Russia to open new businesses, seek educational opportunities, and learn more about their partner country. When hearing Modi’s friendly greeting, his enthusiastic audience roared back, “Privet! Vse khorosho!”. RIAC :: Unity and Friendship: A Personal Account of Modi’s Visit to Moscow (russiancouncil.ru)
India – UK
(Noah Chamberlain, Shairee Malhotra – Observer Research Foundation) Following the recent general elections in India and the United Kingdom (UK), the prospect of the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) looks closer than ever. Even though the narrative is tempting—recent elections, particularly the change in government in the UK, as the ultimate catalyst for its conclusion—reality is a shade more nuanced. The India-UK FTA: Finally coming to fruition? (orfonline.org)
India – USA
(Chaitanya Giri – Observer Research Foundation) Call it a tale of two ‘Axioms’—‘Axiom Research Labs’, better known as Team Indus, founded in 2010 in Bengaluru; and the second, ‘Axiom Space’, founded in 2016 in Houston. Both are related to the India-United States (US) space cooperation, and both intend to play in the realms of emerging global cis-lunar architecture. The Indian Axiom was built by Indians, but due to a lack of opportunities for commercial space entities, back in 2017, it got assimilated into the US commercial space ecosystem. The American Axiom was built by American and international talent who were magnetically attracted to the flourishing US commercial space sector. The story and fate of both entities call for an analysis as India is on the cusp of reaching an important milestone on the path of its human spaceflight diplomacy. Gaganyaan must trigger more iCET-like bilaterals (orfonline.org)
Indonesia
(Yanuar Nugroho – FULCRUM) A recent ransomware attack on Indonesia’s public services revealed weaknesses that the country can ill afford to ignore if it wishes to fully participate in the digital century. Indonesia’s National Data Centre Ransomware Attack: A Digital Governance Failure? | FULCRUM
Japan
(William Choong, Joanne Lin – FULCRUM) Among ASEAN dialogue partners, Japan has been recognised as a “courteous power” that aligns well with Southeast Asian cultural norms and values. Beyond that, Japan has emerged as the most trusted and strategically relevant middle power to ASEAN. This positions it to play a greater security role in the region. Japan, the Courteous Power, Bares Some Teeth for Regional Stability | FULCRUM
Maldives
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) Celebrating the Maldives’ 59th independence day on 26th July, President Mohamed Muizzu stressed the importance of “economic sovereignty” and thanked India and China for cooperating and strengthening the country’s economy. This latest development comes as the nation’s economy undergoes a severe crisis and is struggling to stay afloat. To be clear, the crisis has long been in the making, and the economy was in deep distress when Muizzu inherited the presidency in November 2023. However, nine months into power, Muizzu has further exacerbated these challenges. While the government has initiated some reforms, it lacks a long-term plan to stabilise or immunise the economy against external shocks and is making itself vulnerable to competition between India and China. Understanding the Maldives’ economic crisis: Causes and implications (orfonline.org)
Middle East
(Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Katherine Wells, Ria Reddy, Siddhant Kishore, Carolyn Moorman, Emma Milchunes, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Iranian Retaliation: CTP-ISW continues to assess that a coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its Axis of Resistance is the most likely Iranian response to Israel’s killing of senior axis leaders. Iranian leaders may decide that Iran cannot successfully design and execute a strike that would penetrate Israeli air defenses to establish deterrence, despite strong statements by its officials and media. Iranian leaders may additionally calculate that the risk of triggering a large-scale Israeli response is too high to justify conducting a coordinated large-scale missile and drone attack.
Hezbollah Retaliation: Divergent goals and priorities between Iran and Hezbollah could create friction between the two and disagreement on the timing and coordination of an attack. These divisions may be appearing because Hezbollah and Iran have different constraints and goals for a retaliatory attack on Israel. Both groups want to establish deterrence with Israel but may have differing urgency.
Iranian Government Formation: An unspecified informed source told IRGC-affiliated media on August 8 that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has nominated his foreign affairs, defense, and intelligence ministers. Pezeshkian very likely had to receive approval from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei prior to nominating these ministers given the sensitive nature of their positions. The intelligence minister also served under former hardline President Ebrahim Raisi.
Gaza Strip: The Hamas Khan Younis Brigade is building improvised explosive devices from unexploded ordinance as part of its effort to regenerate forces there. This report is consistent with a June 2024 report from Israeli Army Radio, which is a state-owned news outlet run by the IDF, that said Hamas is establishing small weapons manufacturing sites across the Strip. The manufacture of IEDs on a small scale, however, does not indicate full or large-scale reconstitution of forces to fully supplied or manned levels. Iran Update, August 8, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Ian Dudgeon – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The assassination in late July, presumedly by Israel, of Hezbollah’s senior leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and of Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, has conveyed four clear messages about Israel’s “self defence” modus operandi to both foes and friends alike. Firstly, targeted assassination, especially of the leadership of Israel’s “enemies,” remains very much a part of Israel’s revenge, retaliation, and deterrence tool box. And their modus operandi includes killing in selected third countries, if that provides access. The Middle East: Israeli Assassinations Have Challenged Iran’s Credibility – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Alexander Palmer – Center for Strategic & International Studies) The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 has pushed Iran’s leaders into a dangerous corner. Tehran has few options but to escalate the conflict, as it did with its attack against Israel in April. That attack led to a chorus of statements labeling Iran’s actions as “destabilizing,” arguing that it was part of a malign regional strategy, and calling for a punitive Israeli counterattack. Policymakers should not see in Tehran’s inevitable response an intent to escalate or further destabilize the region but rather an imperfect attempt to restore the status quo. Such an interpretation risks turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy, contributing to a march toward a regional war that few want. Why Iran Will Escalate (csis.org)
(Kawa Hassan – Stimson Center) The Israeli assassinations of Hezbollah’s top military commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran threaten major escalation with far-reaching consequences for a Middle East already on edge since the outbreak of the Gaza war last year. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been hit and humiliated in the heart of Tehran in an unprecedented manner. To save face and restore some sense of deterrence, both Iran and Hezbollah will respond, although the timing and manner remain unclear. Due to its strategic location and the presence of U.S. troops, Iraq runs the risk of being caught in the eye of the hurricane if the conflict results in a wider regional war. Already on Monday, Aug. 5, several U.S. servicemen were injured by a rocket attack on the Ain al-Asad base by Iran-backed militants. Given the influence of pro-Iran militias in Iraq, the inability of a weak central government to establish a monopoly on the use of force and the still chronically fragmented post-Saddam political order, the impact of a regional war on Iraq could be disastrous. Israeli Assassinations in Iran and Lebanon Put Iraq’s Stability in Further Peril • Stimson Center
(Kobi Michael – INSS) Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, was elected to head its political bureau, essentially becoming the leader of the entire organization, replacing Ismail Haniyeh who was assassinated in Tehran last week. His election was completely unexpected, and his name did not come up in the list of names and speculations for Haniyeh’s replacement. His election testifies to his status and influence in the organization and the position of the Gaza Strip as Hamas’s center of gravity. The Implications of Sinwar’s Election as Head of Hamas’s Political Bureau | INSS
(Rich Berdan – RIAC) The recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh proved not only embarrassing for Tehran but also greatly concerning; it revealed the capability of outside forces to reach deep into the most secure Iranian facilities and successfully strike an adversary in its homeland. While some experts are clamoring that the death of Haniyeh has been a setback for negotiations and the release of the remaining Israeli hostages, it can also be argued that Haniyeh was in fact a major roadblock to the negotiations succeeding. The Hamas leader has never sought a peaceful coexistence with Israel, and he milked every ounce of antisemitism and hatred toward Israel from the UN, the Hague, university campuses, and even politicians. In many ways, Haniyeh’s death consequently clipped Iranian’s puppet strings. RIAC :: Iran’s Quandary Following the Assassination in the Homeland (russiancouncil.ru)
(Hamna Ghias Sheikh – RIAC) The recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran represents a dramatic escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with far-reaching implications for the region and beyond. This assassination underscores an ongoing strategy to disrupt Hamas leadership and operational capabilities, reflecting a determination to dismantle a key pillar of the Palestinian resistance. As the geopolitical landscape becomes increasingly volatile, the assassination raises urgent questions about the path forward and the potential for lasting peace in the Middle East. RIAC :: Shadows of Escalation: The Ripple Effects of Ismail Haniyeh’s Assassination on Middle Eastern Stability (russiancouncil.ru)
(Alvite Ningthoujam – Observer Research Foundation) The Middle East, until recently had, appeared to be a transformed region with several political and security developments taking place one after the other. The overall dynamics, discernibly, were improving as compared to the mid and late 2010s when the wider region was engulfed by the wraths of terror organisations like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that captured large swathes of territories in two key countries, Syria and Iraq. Simultaneously, the Syrian civil war that began in March 2011 is winding down, with President Bashar al-Assad not only regaining control of most parts of the country but also being welcomed at the Arab League Summit in May 2023, and the internal situation in Iraq equally witnessing gradual improvements except for intermittent violence. Israel, on the one hand, was mitigating threats coming from Hamas and other terror outfits, although under difficult circumstances. Against this backdrop, this piece briefly highlights the trajectory of recent positive developments, which has indicated that the region was marching towards normalcy, followed by an assessment of the emerging security challenges, triggered by the outbreak of the Gaza conflict on 7 October last year, which is leading the region towards instability. Rising instability in the region clouds the Middle East’s future (orfonline.org)
Morocco – France
(Intissar Fakir – Middle East Institute) French President Emmanuel Macron’s letter of congratulations to the Moroccan sovereign Mohammed VI on the 25th anniversary of his rise to the throne unveiled a major policy shift regarding the Western Sahara conflict. Macron announced that France views Morocco’s autonomy proposal not only as a viable solution, but the most viable solution to the conflict. This semantic shift is a significant change of French foreign policy and, coming after a similar shift in Spain’s position, could prompt other European countries to follow suit. More broadly, the move also has implications for regional dynamics and will eventually require a revisiting of the United Nations-led conflict resolution process. French embrace of Moroccan autonomy plan underscores broader shift on Western Sahara dispute | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security.
Geolocated footage and Russian claims indicate that Ukrainian forces continued rapid advances further into Kursk Oblast on August 8, and Ukrainian forces are reportedly present in areas as far as 35 kilometers from the international border with Sumy Oblast. Ukrainian forces most certainly do not control all of the territory within the maximalist extent of Russian claims about Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast, however.
The Kremlin will almost certainly endeavor to retake Russian territory in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces have seized and stop Ukrainian activity further into Russia, as substantial Ukrainian advances within Russia would be a strategic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decades-long effort to cement a legacy of Russian stability, security, and geopolitical resurgence.
COA (Course of Action) 1: The Russian military command may decide to use existing conscripts, Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards, Rosgvardia, and other irregular forces already deployed to the international border area to push Ukrainian forces back and defend against the Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast.
COA 2: The Russian military command may decide to use the existing Northern Grouping of Forces deployed along the Russian-Ukrainian border to respond to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk Oblast.
COA 3: The Russian military command may choose to redeploy operational reserves that it accumulated for its planned Summer 2024 offensive effort and/or relatively better provisioned and more combat effective frontline units to Kursk Oblast from elsewhere in the theater.
COA 4: The Russian military command may seek to maintain the forces it currently has committed to Kursk Oblast but could redeploy significant aviation and strike elements to the area in an effort to improve Russia’s ability to retake territory.
The lack of a coherent Russian response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and the reported rate of Ukrainian advance indicates that Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise along the border with Russia.
Ukrainian officials have yet to comment directly on Ukraine’s ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast.
US officials noted that Ukraine’s ongoing operation into Kursk Oblast is not a violation of US restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to strike military targets within Russia’s border areas. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Atlantic Council) The August surprise came from Ukraine. Beginning on Tuesday, as many as a thousand Ukrainian troops reportedly crossed the border into the Kursk region in Russia, capturing an estimated seventeen square miles of territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the move a “major provocation,” while the Ukrainian government has largely declined to comment. The size and depth of the incursion adds a significant new dimension to the ongoing conflict. How Ukraine’s incursion into Russia could change the war – Atlantic Council
Saudi Arabia
(Simon Henderson – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) A two-sentence tweet this week by Rafael Grossi, director-general of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, marks a notable advance in Saudi Arabia’s willingness to accept oversight of its budding nuclear program. The August 7 post on Twitter/X delivered the following announcement: “As nuclear activities are poised to grow in Saudi Arabia, facilitating the work of IAEA staff as they carry out duties is key. Today, [Saudi Arabia] deposited Instrument of Acceptance for the Agreement on the Privileges and Immunities of the [IAEA], providing protection to our staff.”. Saudi Arabia Increases Its Cooperation with World’s Nuclear Watchdog | The Washington Institute
Squad
(Prisie Patnayak – East Asia Forum) The Squad, a minilateral bloc involving the United States, Australia, Japan and the Philippines, is currently seen as a potential deterrent against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. But with the Philippines lacklustre military capability, ASEAN’s regulations preventing Manila from using overt military means against China, and a potentially changing geopolitical landscape due to elections in the Philippines and the US, the effectiveness of the Squad in countering China remains uncertain. High hurdles for achieving squad goals in the South China Sea | East Asia Forum
UK
(Justin Bronk – RUSI) Focusing in the Strategic Defence Review on investment to regenerate the combat power of the existing Typhoon and F-35 fleets is the quickest way for the UK to rapidly field high-end capabilities that would significantly enhance NATO’s deterrence posture against Russian aggression. Regenerating the UK’s Airpower Edge Within NATO | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Ukraine
(Raphael J Piliero – ASPI The Strategist) Recent calls for Ukraine to join NATO are unrealistic at best and unwise at worst. Arguments advanced typically rely on a series of myths about membership: that NATO membership for Ukraine could plausibly end the war, that it would sustainably keep the peace, and that support for it is a realistic possibility. Advancing these myths ultimately worsens Ukraine’s security, because it takes off the table the best option for ending today’s devasting war: a negotiated settlement in which continued Ukrainian neutrality is accepted in return for leaving it sovereign and militarily strong, capable of fending off future Russian assaults. Forget NATO membership for Ukraine; instead trade it for Ukrainian sovereignty | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA
(Hallison P. Harris – Brookings) The Brennan Center reports that 28 states have no Black justices, and “across all state high courts, just 17 percent of justices are Black, Latino, Asian American, or Native American.”. As the percentage of Black judges in a courthouse increases, white judges are less likely to render incarceration sentences in cases with Black defendants. For white judges, as they interact with a more diverse group of colleagues, they may become more aware of the salience of race in sentencing, update their beliefs about racial disparities in sentencing, or face pressure not to appear discriminatory. JustEquity and the American judiciary: Can racial diversity among judges affect sentencing outcomes? | Brookings
(William G. Gale, Tayae Rogers – Brookings) The United States faces a long-term fiscal problem: Spending threatens to outrun revenues by such a large margin that the ratio of public debt to the size of gross domestic product (GDP) could increase inexorably. High debt will erode future generations’ living standards, hinder policymaking, and threaten national security. The good news is that the U.S. has successfully reduced debt several times in the past. The bad news is that previous fixes were too small to solve the current problem. Fixing the debt problem now requires far more substantial and sustainable policy changes than ever attempted. Back to the future: Can the government reduce its debt again? | Brookings
(Geoff Wilson – Stimson Center) The United States is on track to spend the equivalent of more than two Manhattan projects per year in one of the most expensive nuclear arms races in history. Yet, all of the systems being developed are all significantly over budget and behind schedule, and several might be actively eroding America’s national security by destabilizing global strategic stability and legitimizing the idea of “limited” nuclear use. How did we get here and might there be better alternatives? America’s Nuclear Weapons Quagmire • Stimson Center
(Al Jazeera Centre for Studies) A combination of unexpected factors has led to the nomination of Kamala Harris as a replacement for Joe Biden, ushering the US elections into a new phase. This development could enhance the mechanism of political integration, but it might also lead to further exclusion, which could cause extremism and chaos, and weaken institutions. The US Presidential Election: Unprecedentedly High Stakes | Al Jazeera Centre for Studies
USA – Africa
(Joel Odota – Australian Institute of International Affairs) With Africa’s population currently at 1.4 billion and projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2025, the “African Century” seems imminent. Despite ranking second in this year’s Lowy Institute’s Diplomacy Index, which measures countries’ diplomatic networks, engagement levels, and potential influence, the US pays little diplomatic attention to Africa. This situation is unlikely to change, regardless of who becomes the next president. Historically, America’s policies towards the African continent have been inconsistent. During the Cold War, Africa was seen as a crucial ally of the US-led system, with several proxy wars fought on African soil. Harris or Trump: America’s Strategy Towards Africa Unlikely to Change Much – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
USA – China
(Lydia Powell, Akhilesh Sati, Vinod Kumar Tomar – Observer Research Foundation) In 2003, primary energy consumption in China was 49 exajoules (EJ), the second largest, accounting for over 12 percent of total global primary energy consumption. Energy consumption in the US of just over 96 EJ, accounting for about 24 percent of the global total, making it the largest consumer. In 2023, China was the largest energy consumer with a consumption of over 170 EJ, accounting for over 27 percent of global total, followed by the US with a consumption of 94 EJ, accounting for over 15 percent of global consumption. The peak primary energy consumption of 95.4 EJ, recorded in 2022, in US which was roughly half of China’s primary energy consumption in 2023. China’s future choices in new energy (renewable energy) consumption and production will influence the energy consumption choices of the rest of the world in the future, but its geopolitical implications may be weaker than what popular narratives suggest. New energy dominance: America versus China (orfonline.org)
USA – Europe
(Timothy Wright, Douglas Barrie – IISS) Amid Putin’s war in Ukraine and following Russian violations of arms-control measures, Washington and Berlin recently agreed to send American long-range missiles to Germany. Other European NATO allies are now seeking to acquire their own. The return of long-range US missiles to Europe (iiss.org)
USA – Iran
(Omer Taspinar – Emirates Policy Center) The United States remains realistic about the possibility of change in Iran under Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidency, but that realism is gradually turning into pessimism due to the new spiral of violence in the region. From Washington’s perspective, two critical developments are worth monitoring: the modest signs of relative moderation by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the evolving balance of power between hardliners and moderates in the country. Washington recognizes that Pezeshkian has limited flexibility regarding the nuclear file. However, another opportunity for diplomacy may arise because the Iranian economy desperately needs sanctions relief. The success of such diplomacy will hinge on having a willing partner in the White House. Emirates Policy Center | Can a Moderate President in Tehran Make a Difference in US-Iran Relations? (epc.ae)
Yemen
(Farea Al-Muslimi – Chatham House) At the end of May 2024 the armed Houthi group in Yemen (also known as Ansar Allah) conducted a new round of raids across the capital Sana’a, forcibly disappearing dozens of Yemenis including activists, researchers, INGO workers and diplomatic staff. Following the arrests, the Houthis publicly denounced targets inside and outside the country on television. I was among those targeted, accused of being part of a ‘foreigner spying network and implementing foreign agendas in the country’, a charge I reject entirely. The Houthis have cracked down brutally on Yemeni civil society. A strategic response is required | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
