From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
China – Africa
(Yun Sun – Brookings) The 2024 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation is by any measure the most significant diplomatic event for China this year. Being in Beijing at the time, I was struck by the magnitude of resources, policy priority, and importance attached by the Chinese government to this signature event. High-end hotels were blocked off for the dozens of delegations from African countries. Roads were closed during the rush hour to make way for their motorcades. And security measures were enhanced across the board from airports to hotel elevators—all at the expense of the host government. – 2024 FOCAC Beijing Summit: A new chapter?
India – Russia
(Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) India and Russia are showing an appetite for continued economic engagement. Bilateral trade increased exponentially from US$12.34 billion in 2022 to US$65 billion in 2023; the target is US$100 billion by 2030. To achieve such a level of economic cooperation, the private sector in both countries will need to increase their participation. This brief assesses the presence of India’s private sector in Russia and evaluates the potential for enhanced relations. – The Role of India’s Private Sector in Economic Relations with Russia (1991-2024)
Mediterranean, Middle East and the Gulf
(Ido Levy – The Washington Institute) On November 3, Egypt delivered a third batch of weapons to the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) as part of a deal to arm and train the Somali National Army (SNA) and eventually deploy Egyptian troops there. The first batch (containing small arms, light weapons, and armored vehicles) came on August 27, and the second in late September. – Making the Best of Egypt’s Entrance into Somalia | The Washington Institute
(Abdulsalam Medeni – The Washington Institute) In the two decades since the fall of the Baath regime in Iraq, enormous amounts of effort, money, and resources have been invested in strengthening Iraqi civil society. Hundreds of organizations now exist to promote democratic initiatives, champion women’s economic participation, and advocate for minorities. But a host of internal and international challenges threaten to dry up funding and shift global focus from Iraq, placing the country’s civil society in existential danger. – Whither Iraqi Civil Society? | The Washington Institute
(Eran Ortal – BESA Center) Israel’s move in the north signals a clear strategy – the return of the residents of the north to their homes based on a narrow security strip and a political demilitarization agreement in the form of UN Resolution 1701. This strategy involves operational and strategic risks. On the operational level, there is a risk to the fighting forces who are exposed to enemy units deployed to their north. Hezbollah units in southern Lebanon were less severely harmed than were the higher ranks of command, and they are relatively free to regain their footing and act. On the strategic level, allowing the enemy’s ground power in the south to remain intact almost guarantees the future rehabilitation of the organization. If the current strategy succeeds and the enemy agrees to end the war, the parties will embark on yet another race to prepare for the next one. This strategy illustrates that even at the height of a success like the current campaign against Hezbollah, tactics of the war on terror – however successful they may be – are no substitute for decisive military capability. This understanding should be the basis of Israel’s approach to defeating Hezbollah. – The IDF’s Gamble in Lebanon
(Shaul Bartal – BESA Center) Yahya Sinwar was the individual most closely associated with Hamas and with the war initiated by that organization on October 7, 2023. On that date, Hamas terrorists swarmed across the Israeli border, killed approximately 1,200 people, most of them civilians, and kidnapped approximately 250 more to the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s elimination on October 17, 2024, is an image of Israeli victory. A year after the outbreak of the war and after the recent elimination of Sinwar, Hamas is now at a crossroads. Will its new leadership accept an arrangement that returns the abductees, ends the war, and brings the group’s rule in the Gaza Strip to an end? Or will Hamas continue along Sinwar’s lines – a futile war against Israel that will lead to yet further suffering for the two million Palestinian civilians of Gaza? – The Future of Hamas and the War in Gaza After the Sinwar Era
(Yoel Guzansky, Orna Mizrahi – INSS) Against the backdrop of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, Qatar appears to be taking steps to expand its influence in Lebanon. Israel’s wariness toward Qatar stems from Doha’s adversarial policy toward Israel and with its ties to Hamas. Nevertheless, Israel and Qatar’s interests may converge regarding Lebanon, particularly in preventing the country from completely falling into the hands of Iran and Hezbollah. In this context, coordination between Israel and the United States, which has close ties with Qatar, is necessary. – The Increasing Qatari Involvement in Lebanon | INSS
USA
(Harsh V. Pant, Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) Internally, Trump has already indicated his administration will differ markedly from his prior one. Many key figures from his first term, such as John Kelly and John Bolton, have either distanced themselves from him or openly opposed his leadership, suggesting a fresh team with potentially distinct policy goals. This shift could result in notable changes across domestic and foreign policy fronts. The entry of people like Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and Robert F. Kennedy Junior could mean very different policy priorities for the US in fields such as space, technology, innovation, medical and health. – Trump 2.0 will echo themes from first term, but with big changes
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) In the end it, was not as close as many were anticipating. Donald Trump performed much better than he did in the 2020 election and Kamala Harris could not match Joe Biden’s performance that year, resulting in a second term for Trump in the White House. It was all over when Trump retook the US battleground state of Georgia, which he had narrowly lost four years ago, and then also won North Carolina, which shrunk Kamala Harris’s possible paths to victory. Harris could not win any of the battleground states—Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada—that were pivotal for her victory. And unlike his 2016 win, Trump also managed to win the popular vote this time, making this the first time Republicans secured this prize since 1992. Declaring it a “magnificent victory,” Trump underlined in his victory speech to his supporters that “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” – Trump 2.0: How the US engages the world is set to shift
(Yuki Tatsumi – Stimson Center) Donald J. Trump won. For the first time in 132 years, Trump has become the president who got voted out once but returned to power. The election was overwhelmingly focused on the state of the U.S. economy and its border security, but the impact of the result of this election reaches far beyond U.S. borders. The U.S. allies around the world need to figure out how they will respond to Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to foreign and security policy again. The Indo-Pacific region is no exception. – Trump Wins—Can the Indo-Pacific Region Withstand? • Stimson Center
(Brian Katulis, Athena Masthoff – Middle East Institute) Former President Donald J. Trump won the 2024 US presidential election and will return to the White House on Jan. 20. Upon taking power, his administration will likely face a Middle East in turmoil, with wars in Gaza and potentially Lebanon raging on as well as threats from Iran and its regional network of proxies continuing. Social and economic concerns, rather than foreign policy issues, dominated the campaign. Nonetheless, it is possible to extrapolate how the incoming second Trump administration may respond to the complex situation in the Middle East by examining the president-elect’s record during his first term, what he has said since, as well as public statements of his running-mate, Sen. J. D. Vance. – How Donald Trump might tackle the Middle East in 2025 | Middle East Institute
(Avishay Ben Sasson-Gordis, Theodore Sasson, Jesse R. Weinberg – INSS) Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States after a fierce campaign, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. His return to the White House follows significant internal tensions in the United States, including concerns about immigration, inflation, and crime. Trump will likely focus initially on domestic issues, especially the crisis on the southern border. During his previous term, he won over Israelis through his support for the Abraham Accords, recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, and the relocation of the US Embassy to Jerusalem. However, Trump is a divisive figure in the United States, making it imperative for Israel to maintain bipartisan support in Congress, among the American public, and in the American Jewish community. During the transition period, Israel should work to maintain close dialogue with American counterparts, particularly given its multi-front war against Iran. Under the new administration, if Iran and global powers negotiate a new nuclear deal, Israel should seek to influence its terms rather than oppose it outright. – Trump Victory | INSS
(Benjamin Jensen – Center for Strategic & International Studeis) Americans across the aisle need to put aside our differences and draft a common blueprint for foreign policy and grand strategy for the next four years. Democrats can find compromises with Republicans to forge a new consensus that speaks directly to Trump voters’ concerns about economic policy and migration. And Republicans can find ways to speak to Harris voters’ concerns about maintaining the international partnerships America needs to address ongoing conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa and deter a larger conflict in the Asia-Pacific. This compromise starts with putting the trepidations of voters who swept Trump into the White House front and center and assessing them in relation to the larger trends shaping the global security environment in 2024. – Toward a Foreign Policy Compromise in the Next Trump Administration
(Charles A. Kupchan – Council on Foreign Relations) President-Elect Donald Trump needs to play a leading role in steering the world away from ongoing violence and the potential fragmentation of the global economy, but a purposeful foreign policy requires getting the country’s own democratic house in order at a divisive moment. – Trump’s Tall Task: Overcoming Domestic Division to Project Strength Abroad | Council on Foreign Relations
(William A. Galston – Brookings) If the exit polls turn out to be accurate, Trump made strides among Latinos and African Americans, especially men. The public’s judgment of Biden’s performance on two core issues—inflation and immigration—was harshly negative, and Harris inherited this disapproval. Women’s share of the total vote rose only marginally from its level in 2020, and Harris’ share of the women who voted did not increase from Biden’s 2020 levels. – Why Donald Trump won and Kamala Harris lost: An early analysis of the results
(Atlantic Council) Get ready for the sequel. On November 6, the Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner of the 2024 US presidential election. A transition now kicks off as world events continue to churn. When he returns to the presidency on January 20, Trump’s inbox will be full of global challenges. How will he respond? And what will the consequences be? – Donald Trump just won the presidency. Our experts answer the big questions about what that means for America’s role in the world. – Atlantic Council
