From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Artificial Intelligence; Australia; Australia-Indonesia; Australia-Japan; BRICS; Russia-Balkans; Solomon Islands; US
Artificial Intelligence
(Nicholas Morieson – Lowy The Interpreter) Who decides what values are embedded in artificial intelligence? This question may soon matter more than whether AI takes your job. Generative AI systems such as ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok are becoming the default gateway to knowledge. As people turn to them first (and often last) for information, these systems will shape what can be said and, over time, what can be thought. Their answers reflect values embedded in AI systems that determine which perspectives are amplified, which are silenced, and how political events are framed. In the United States and Europe, these values are contested but broadly shaped by traditions of individual rights, pluralism and free expression. Companies differ in terms of the values they embed in AI. For example, OpenAI’s ChatGPT is cautious and rights‑oriented, whereas Elon Musk’s Grok takes a more libertarian, free‑speech‑maximalist approach. All, however, operate within America’s political culture. – United States, China or Russia: Who writes the moral code for artificial intelligence? | Lowy Institute
Australia
(Devon Whittle – ASPI The Strategist) Forty years ago, Australia proactively responded to the proliferation of chemical weapons by convening the highly successful Australia Group. That same proactive leadership is needed now to counter emerging AI-enabled chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats. The first meetings of what became the Australia Group followed Iraq’s use of chemical weapons in 1984. In that important moment, Australia identified that inconsistent and uncoordinated export controls had, in part, enabled a disastrous outcome in this kind of weapon of mass destruction (WMD). Australia’s response to that regulatory gap became a key legacy of its diplomacy. Australia should face today’s challenges with the same leadership and initiative. When dealing with AI-enabled CBRN threats, we cannot afford to wait until the first catastrophic incident occurs. AI companies have acknowledged that frontier models have capabilities that, without adequate safeguards, could enable novices to create biological and chemical weapons. – As AI worsens WMD threat, Australia must lead response | The Strategist
Australia – Indonesia
(Euan Graham and Gatra Priyandita – ASPI The Strategist) Australia and Indonesia can no longer afford to treat hybrid threats as an afterthought. From cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns to economic coercion and grey-zone coercion at sea, these challenges are already reshaping the Indo-Pacific’s security environment. If Canberra and Jakarta are serious about regional stability, tackling these threats together should become a strategic priority. That’s the central message of ASPI’s report published today, Australia–Indonesia Defence and Security Partnership: overcoming asymmetric aspirations to tackle common threats. The report urges both countries to seize the momentum created by the 2024 Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) and build a more functional, problem-solving security partnership. – Australia and Indonesia can deepen security cooperation by fighting hybrid threats | The Strategist
Australia – Japan
(Alex Bristow – ASPI The Strategist) Announcing the decision to acquire frigates of Japan’s upgraded Mogami class, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy said on Tuesday that it was the design better able to quickly meet the capability requirements and strategic needs of the Australian Defence Force. Their assessment was presumably influenced by Australia’s and Japan’s shared interest in deterring Chinese coercion and military opportunism in the Indo-Pacific. Germany—Japan’s competitor for the deal with the Meko A-200 design—has acknowledged the threat that China poses, but geography dictates that its main concern is Russia. Without mentioning China in his remarks, Marles seemed to tacitly acknowledge the importance of Japan’s geography for securing Australia’s maritime security and northern approaches. – Mogami acquisition is a strategic opportunity, including for economic security | The Strategist
(Malcolm Davis – The Strategist) If all goes to plan, Australia will receive its first made-in-Japan frigate in 2029. The choice of the upgraded Mogami design of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, announced today, means the Royal Australian Navy will replace its fading Anzac-class general-purpose frigates with much larger ships that need fewer crew members and carry far more weapons. The second and third ships of the new class are also due to come from a Japanese shipyard, then up to eight are to be built at Henderson, Western Australia. The design is called ‘upgraded Mogami’ because it’s enlarged from the original Mogami class that’s in Japanese service. – Australia chooses big, heavily armed Japanese frigates | The Strategist
BRICS
(Sharon Sarah Thawaney – Lowy The Interpreter) Confidence is declining in global climate diplomacy. The familiar multilateral institutions in the field are fractured and struggling to remain relevant to address a rapidly worsening climate crisis. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, having again withdrawn the United States from the Paris Agreement, has left a major void. At COP29 last year, the United States had pledged US $11 billion in climate finance, making it the largest bilateral donor. Its withdrawal marks a serious setback for collective climate ambition. Meanwhile, Europe’s climate leadership is also on the decline. The political right is pushing to shelve green policies in favour of reindustrialisation and away from renewable energy, while a military build-up is also drawing on stretched public finances – all suggesting a sharp retreat from the EU’s climate ambitions. This political backsliding is evident in recent climate negotiations. The Bonn Climate Change Conference ended in a deadlock over the agenda, where consensus could not be reached over climate finance. Minimal progress was also made on loss and damage questions. Trust between developed and developing countries remains low, and the outcomes from Bonn did little to suggest that global climate talks later this year will deliver a breakthrough. While the Global North takes a spasmodic interest in the climate crisis, the Global South is left facing the reality of the intensifying effects of climate change. In this vacuum, alternative forums are beginning to emerge. Could BRICS be one of them? – How BRICS could become the Global South’s climate voice | Lowy Institute
Russia – Balkans
(Sam Jones – The Jamestown Foundation) A recent joint investigation by the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN) and Moldovan outlet CU SENS confirmed that Moscow had established secret paramilitary camps in the Balkans to train Moldovan citizens in destabilization tactics ahead of Moldova’s October 2024 presidential elections. The Kremlin regards the Balkan region as a frontline in its confrontation with the West and has frequently carried out destabilization operations when countries in the region seek closer integration with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or the European Union. Russian military theorists have increasingly concluded that war need not be declared, nor purely kinetic, to achieve political ends. The secret training camps in Serbia and the Republika Srpska illustrate how Moscow’s evolving definition of war manifests in practice. – Balkan Training Camps Reflect Moscow’s Expanding Definition of War – Jamestown
Solomon Islands
(Blake Johnson and Astrid Young – ASPI The Strategist) Somewhere in Solomon Islands lies a security agreement with China that has never been made public, despite assurances from the government of greater transparency. Even today, almost three years after its signing, the agreement still worries many watchers of the region. Nonetheless, the Solomon Islands government has shown that it values all its foreign partners’ support. This includes Australia, which will likely remain the country’s security partner of choice despite China’s efforts to grow its presence in the region. As always, decisions around security-sector partnerships ultimately remain in the hands of the Solomon Islands government and their politicians, who have become adept at juggling partners and their offers of support to maximise the benefits, both personally and for their country. But the long-term effect of this on the country’s development is unclear. Showing how difficult it is to keep multiple partners happy, the Solomon Islands government has responded to pressure over Taiwan’s participation in the Pacific Islands Forum leaders’ meeting in Honiara in September by indicating it could exclude all non-members of the forum—notably China and the United States. – Friends to all: Solomon Islands juggles security partners in search of maximum support | The Strategist
US
(Rebecca Patterson – Council on Foreign Relations) While the July U.S. jobs report Friday was surprisingly bad—sending U.S. equities, bond yields, and the dollar all sharply lower—the reasons behind the labor-market developments have been pretty easy to see. What remains murkier is how politics, such as President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign on the U.S. Federal Reserve and his sudden decision to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner, will affect the economy and markets in the future. The most recent jobs report showed that non-farm employment rose by seventy-three thousand. That is a bit softer than expected, but the real shock came from the revisions to the previous two months: a reduction of 258,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent in July, though economists noted the next decimal places which underscored a worrying trend upward (to 4.248 percent to be precise). Trump alleged without evidence that the numbers were “rigged” and made the extraordinary announcement that he had fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer in response. – Trump Fires BLS Chief, Skips Causes of Weak Jobs Report | Council on Foreign Relations
