Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa
(Michlene Mongae – African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes) The rapid advancement of technology has had a profound impact on global security dynamics, with Africa being no exception. The increase in internet connectivity across Africa has facilitated economic growth and improved access to information sharing, however, it has also led to a significant rise in cyber-related crimes. These activities can disrupt critical infrastructure and financial systems, undermining security, stability, and government operations. Investment in cybersecurity technologies and expertise is crucial in protecting against cyber threats. Robust cybersecurity measures can safeguard critical systems, sensitive data, and national interests from cyber-attacks.
The opportunities and risks of leveraging technology in Africa – ACCORD
(Chikondi Chidzanja – African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes) Since the announcement of the withdrawal of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) from Cabo Delgado province, there have been various criticisms about the effectiveness and drawdown of intervention. Some have called the withdrawal premature; some have labelled it a regional failure and others have questioned SADC’s competence while accusing it of turning away from a terrorist threat on its doorstep. The criticisms reached a crescendo recently with the resurgence of terror attacks in the area. However, what the critics miss is hidden in plain sight – the conduct of host country Mozambique. The host country will play a decisive role in a return to peace in Cabo Delgado.
SAMIM criticism misses larger point – ACCORD
(Kapinga Yvette Ngandu – African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes) The term “Humanitarian Action” generally refers to the various initiatives undertaken by state or non-state actors with the ultimate goal of urgently saving lives or alleviating the suffering of populations following the occurrence of a natural crisis or one of human origin. This assistance can take the form of food, medicine, shelter or protection for populations in situations of extreme need, whether due to natural disasters or anthropogenic causes such as armed conflicts or violence. The major humanitarian challenge that Central Africa faces is that of forced displacement of populations due to security crises which persist in certain countries within the subregion and other subregional blocks or neighbouring countries of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS).
(Daniel Eizenga, Amandine Gnanguênon – Africa Center for Strategic Studies) Coastal West African countries can strengthen resiliency to the threat of violent extremism by enhancing a multilayered response addressing local, national, and regional priorities.
AUKUS
(Harlan Ullman – ASPI The Strategist) The 1972 movie The Candidate is a good metaphor for the current state of AUKUS, the tri-nation consortium for supplying Australia with eight nuclear submarines (SSNs) and other technology. In the movie, Robert Redford plays Bill McKay, a political novice who wins a miraculous upset victory over a long-serving Californian senator. As the movie ends, Redford desperately asks his campaign manager, ‘What do we do now?’ There is no answer.
A task for AUKUS: multiply the value of SSNs | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Canada
(Neil Desai – Centre for International Governance Innovation) The magnitude of Canada’s economic challenges warrants bold solutions. Earlier this year the Bank of Canada sounded the alarm on our meagre labour productivity and low levels of business investment. Increasingly, the reflexive answer has been artificial intelligence. There likely isn’t a board, management or cabinet meeting where the acronym isn’t dropped as a catch-all solution to a company’s profitability pursuits, the government’s plan to address its own fiscal woes or Canada’s multi-decade productivity decline.
China
(Hannah McNicol – Lowy The Interpreter) Over the past decade, China’s role as a global actor has captured the public eye. If asked to describe China’s foreign policy, for most people, a selection of key buzzwords likely come to mind: the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), competition with the United States (the “Second Cold War”), military activity in the South China Sea, or perhaps “debt-trap diplomacy”. More recently, China’s slowing economy, industrial overcapacity and leading EV production have also grabbed headlines. However, one aspect of China’s foreign policy much less likely to appear on such a list is China’s role as a global development or foreign aid actor. And where this question does emerge, it often remains subsumed within discussions of competition, suspicion or geopolitics.
What is China’s role in achieving the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals? | Lowy Institute
(Andrew Wedeman – East Asia Forum) In June 2024, China’s Politburo expelled former ministers of national defence General Li Shangfu and General Wei Fenghe from the Chinese Communist Party for violating political discipline and accepting bribes. The persistent corruption amid China’s top military brass has raised concerns over potential disloyalty and military readiness, casting doubt over President Xi Jinping’s control over the Community Party despite a decade-long anti-corruption campaign.
The red glare of Xi’s second PLA purge | East Asia Forum
China – Africa
(Paul Nantulya – Africa Center for Strategic Studies) China promotes its dominant party model in Africa through a suite of training programs for party and government officials even though this model is antithetical to Africans’ preference for multiparty democracy.
China Escalates Its Political Party Training in Africa – Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Climate Action and Energy Transition
(Daniel Scholten, Daniel Zuckerman – Elcano Royal Institute) Global energy demand is shifting towards developing countries in the coming decades. This paper explores the implications for energy markets, trade relations and energy security and industrial strategies of three regions: the Global South, the Global North and fossil fuel exporters.
The geopolitics of the global energy demand shift – Elcano Royal Institute (realinstitutoelcano.org)
(Maha Siddiqui, M.V. Ramana – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) The nuclear industry hasn’t been so excited in a while. From the pledge to triple nuclear energy by 2050 made by around 20 countries during the 28th UN climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates to the recent report to the G20 by the International Atomic Energy Agency on speeding up investment into nuclear power to meet net zero goals, there is much talk about a new round of nuclear reactor construction. Countries in Eastern Europe, such as Poland, are active participants in this effort to rebrand nuclear energy as clean and climate friendly. Poland’s inclusion in this list should be surprising: Its electricity primarily comes from fossil fuels, and the country has not committed to any net-zero target, making it “the lowest-placed EU nation” in its ability to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Nevertheless, in 2023, Poland’s government announced plans to import nuclear reactors.
Emerging Technologies
(Asian Development Bank Institute) Building Information Modeling (BIM) functions as infrastructure for the construction industry’s digital transformation. Its adoption has been spearheaded primarily by large corporations over the past 15 years, leading to approximately half of the surveyed organizations in Japan having integrated BIM. Given the vast number of stakeholders involved in architectural projects, ensuring they have unhindered access to the model is paramount. Virtual reality and the metaverse holdpromise as an inclusive virtual project workspace. BIM encompasses data sought after by various digitalagents and smart cities. It has seamlessly integrated with the extensive information ecosystem beyond the industry’s boundary. Constructing a database that can connect directly with digitalized services from BIM is not straightforward. Moreover, resolving the intricate data ownership issues may require over a decade. Despite the indispensability of interdisciplinary personnel, the potential of intra-personal diversity is undervalued. Incentivizing those professionals as communication hubs can prove to be a fruitful investment, especially in theproject culture of East Asia.
Building Information Modeling: Prospects and Case Studies | Asian Development Bank (adb.org)
European Union
(Nad’a Kovalčíkov – European Union Institute for Security Studies) This Chaillot Paper delves into the phenomenon of foreign interference and the risk it poses to democratic societies. It explores the interplay between information manipulation and disruptive cyber operations, revealing their role as complementary components within a broader strategy. Dedicated chapters examine how interference manifests across various sectors, including social, political, economic, digital and security domains, describing existing tools and evolving policy responses. Each case study follows a clear structure, presenting an incident, its effects and the implemented responses. The volume concludes by identifying convergences and divergences across the cases studied, and highlights foreign interference as a critical and growing threat to global security. It offers targeted recommendations on how the EU can significantly bolster its defences and resilience against this threat.
Hacking minds and machines | European Union Institute for Security Studies (europa.eu)
(Vasileios Rizos, Edoardo Righetti, and Amin Kassab – Centre for European Policy Studies) Rising geopolitical tensions and the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have intensified concerns about securing access to the critical raw materials (CRMs) that are needed for the energy transition. A group of 17 elements referred to as rare earth elements (REEs) are among the CRMs for which security of supply is increasingly becoming a matter of priority for governments around the globe. REEs are particularly important in the production of rare earth (RE) permanent magnets, which due to their properties are key components of green energy technologies. While it is generally acknowledged that recycling can help mitigate supply shortage risks for REEs, a full recycling chain has not yet been established in the EU. Focusing on RE permanent magnets, this study provides a qualitative-exploratory analysis of barriers to establishing full supply chain recycling processes in the EU. Data have been collected through in-depth interviews with industry experts from all steps of the magnets’ value chain as well as academics. According to our empirical findings, major barriers include limited information about the type of magnets included in end-of-life products, lack of recycling targets, lack of ecodesign requirements, difficulty in moving products across borders, lack of certification systems, high costs involved in the recycling processes, competition with magnets sourced from non-EU countries and missing segments of the RE value chain.
Understanding the barriers to recycling critical raw materials for the energy transition – CEPS
(Thibault Michel – French Institute of International Relations) The United States of America, Canada and the European Union all now consider aluminum as strategic. This metal is indeed increasingly used, especially for the energy transition, be it for electric vehicles (EVs), electricity grids, wind turbines or solar panels. Europe will, therefore, need growing aluminum supplies in the coming years. However, the European aluminum industry has been weakened over the last decades and henceforth only represents a small share of global aluminum production. As a consequence, it cannot entirely meet domestic needs.
Germany
(IDOS) This policy brief provides an overview and assessments of debates on development policy. In view of changing international contexts, it addresses the need to reorient German development policy in the long term and initiate reforms.
Germany – Brazil
(Jule Könneke – German Institute for International and Security Affairs) Growing North-South tensions are impeding global climate cooperation and hampering Germany’s search for reliable partners. Brazil is a key actor with the potential to alleviate tensions: it sees itself as a bridge-builder and will host the Climate Change Conference in 2025 (COP30). Under their new Partnership for a Socially Just and Ecological Transformation, Germany and Brazil should work to strengthen confidence in the climate negotiations, and more generally to promote effective North-South cooperation.
Global Governance
(Gonzalo de Salazar – Elcano Royal Institute) The efficiency of existing multilateral military and dual-use technology export control regimes requires enhanced coordination amongst relevant like-minded suppliers and between the latter and non-members through outreach and cooperation.
(Cedric de Coning – African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes) We often talk about conflicts or peace processes being complex, but what does that actually mean? What insights can we gain from the study of complex systems for the design of mediation and peace processes? Our societies are not like a bridge that can be built, or a machine that can be fixed, or a rocket that can be sent into space again and again with the same result. And yet, for far too long, mediators and peacebuilders have relied on engineering linear-type causal theories of change when they have attempted to design peace processes.
Adaptive peace: Implications of complexity for the design of mediation and peace processes – ACCORD
(Lesley Connolly – African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes) By many accounts, the most prominent international peacebuilding model is increasingly becoming unviable. Developed in the 1990s and 2000s, the “liberal peacebuilding” model (as it is commonly called) is being questioned, updated, and challenged, though its staying power has persisted, due to the continued contributions of international aid agencies and joint funding initiatives that come through multilateral institutions like the United Nations (UN). However, in recent years there has been a scaling down of funding from donors who have traditionally supported liberal peacebuilding, as changing geopolitics has shifted their priorities to defence and security sectors. At the same time, large-scale challenges such as migration and forced displacement, demographic changes, urbanisation, and digital technologies are raising questions among peacebuilders as to how these can be addressed through social cohesion and community-centred actions.
Global Risks
(Sandra Lopez-Verges – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) In recent years, there has been considerable discussion on what might cause future pandemics. What risks do climate change, other human impacts on the environment, or livestock agriculture create, for example? Some of these factors pose immensely complicated challenges for societies. Comparatively, addressing another possible source of a pandemic—a “leak” from a laboratory stemming from human error—is not as complex an undertaking. Good biosafety and biosecurity measures could easily prevent such an occurrence. But countries engaged in the costly competition to produce leading pathogen research can face resource constraints that make it difficult to do so.
India
(Asian Development Bank Institute) Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has grown from a marginal to a mainstream activity. Corporations, traditionally driven by profit maximization, are increasingly recognizing their responsibility toward societal and environmental issues, partly driven by societal expectations and regulatory changes, particularly in developing economies. CSR activities can align with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and have the potential to address issues like poverty, inequality, and climate change. However, progress is needed to fully integrate CSR practices with broader development goals and ensure strategic approaches that can effectively match business objectives with sustainable development. At the midway point to the SDGs’ 2030 target, Exploring the Interlinkages Between Corporate Social Responsibility and the Sustainable Development Goals examines how recent changes in CSR can address broader societal challenges, drawing from insightful cases from India. Key themes include an assessment of India’s legislative mandate on CSR, the need for stronger integration of voluntary CSR efforts with legal frameworks, and the importance of localizing the SDGs and involving civil society organizations to ensure the needs of vulnerable populations are met.
(Asian Development Bank Institute) Using plant-level data from the Annual Survey of Industries, we present an empirical analysis of the effects of global value chains (GVCs) on employment and wage premiums in the Indian manufacturing sector. We emphasize the GVC’s impact on three labor market variables: (i) employment; (ii) the wage premium among skilled, unskilled, male, and female workers; and (iii) wage inequality based on skill and gender. Our analysis consists of four subcategories of workers: skilled, unskilled, male, and female workers. We find that participation in GVCs is positively associated with employment and wages. We also find that these effects are more pronounced for skilled workers and that GVC participation significantly increases wage gaps between skilled and unskilled workers. There are several policy implications from the study: (i) the skills of workers should be improved through training and re-tooling, (ii) a strong monitoring framework on the dynamics of the labor market should be developed in terms of unbundling the effects of the GVC, and (iii) strong labor market institutions need to be developed to create more forward-looking policies that will increase the “future skills” of domestic workers.
(Radhey Wadhwa – Australian Institute of International Affairs) As the general elections in India were underway from April to June 2024, the country was also grappling with severe heatwaves, highlighting the critical need for effective climate policies. As the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases, India’s climate strategy is at a critical juncture, balancing ambitious international commitments and domestic imperatives.
India and China
(Asian Development Bank Institute) Water shortage is one of the major environmental challenges in emerging Asian economies such as India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), presenting significant threats to livelihood and food security in coming decades. The growing population, increasing demand for food, rapid urbanization, and climate-induced water stress will make water an increasingly scarce and critical resource in these nations. Agriculture, as the largest water-consuming sector, accounts for 64% of water use in the PRC and 80% in India. Understanding both the demand and supply sides of water management in agriculture is crucial to addressing future water and food security in these countries. While there are significant differences between the PRC and India in agricultural water management, both countries have predominantly focused on supply-side measures, emphasizing sustainable production practices such as “more crop per drop.” To manage agricultural water resources effectively and ensure long-term sustainability, it is essential to adopt a broader perspective that integrates a comprehensive food system and natural resource management approach. This holistic view will help in developing strategies that balance both the supply and demand sides of water management, addressing the complex challenges of water scarcity in India and the PRC.
Indonesia – China – Australia
(Marina Yue Zhang – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Reducing Chinese influence in Indonesia’s nickel industry, crucial to the EV supply chain, poses significant challenges to the country’s battery-grade nickel production. This move could deter future Chinese investments and diminish essential technology transfers, impacting Indonesia’s competitiveness in the global clean energy market. Indonesia is seeking to reduce Chinese investment in its new nickel mining and processing projects to qualify for tax incentives under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA offers generous tax breaks for EVs starting in 2025 but excludes those with batteries and key minerals, like lithium and nickel, from entities with significant Chinese ownership. Indonesia’s efforts will significantly impact the EV supply chain and the global clean energy transition. As a critical mineral supplier, Australia must balance national interests with the need for global cooperation to achieve a sustainable and resilient future.
Indo-Pacific
(Peter Layton – Australian Institute of International Affairs) There’s a defence Artificial Intelligence (AI) race underway. This effort across 25 countries ranging from the giant to the very small is detailed in a new open-access publication, The Very Long Game, on which this post draws. In the Indo-Pacific, this race is against a backdrop of escalating US/China rivalry. In this rivalry, the idea has taken deep hold that to be first with a new technology gives geo-economic and geostrategic advantages. China considers gaining the lead requires implementing appropriate national technology innovation strategies and some of these focus on AI.
Koreas
(Sarah A. Son – Australian Institute of International Affairs) North Korean escapee arrivals to South Korea are at their lowest in over two decades, and they continue to face challenges with integrating into their new home. However, rising numbers of success stories prove the remarkable resilience and adaptability of this unique population. Earlier this month a senior North Korean diplomat stationed in Cuba defected to South Korea. He was the highest ranking North Korean official to defect since diplomat Thae Yong-Ho escaped from the London embassy in 2016. Thae has since undertaken international speaking tours, published a best-selling memoir, and held office in the South Korean National Assembly.
Latin America
(Adrián Blanco Estévez – Elcano Royal Institute) In recent years there has been an explosion in the creation and growth of Latin America’s tech enterprise ecosystem and startups, a promising mechanism for leveraging innovation and the renewal of regional business activity. Its development has its own characteristics and faces notable challenges if it is to increase its economic impact.
MENA Region
(IDOS) Digitalization has far-reaching yet under-researched impacts on state–society relations. This article addresses this gap and explores digitalization as a driver of change to social contracts. The conceptual framework explains how it changes (a) the state’s duty to grant protection, provision, and participation in exchange for legitimacy; (b) the modes of state–society interaction; and (c) the contracting parties with respect to their location and their relative power position. Based on a literature review and recent developments in digitalization, the article then discusses how this plays out in the MENA region. It shows that digital surveillance by authoritarian regimes often dominates over the states’ duty to protect their citizens. Spaces for political participation increase through social media and online platforms but often fail to translate into ‘offline’ mobilization. Digitalization can improve public service provision, but only for digitally-connected citizens. Thus, digitalization tends to enhance the relative power positions of MENA states even if states themselves partly depend on external actors for access to and control over digital technologies. Overall, digitalization is an important, structural driver of change to social contracts but pre-existing state–society relations and governance framework conditions lead to either more inclusive or rather more authoritarian social contracts.
Morocco
(IDOS) In 2021, King Mohammed VI’s appointed commission released a new vision for Moroccan state-society relations: the New Development Model (Nouveau Modèle de Développement, NMD). Presented as a ‘national collective and federative project’, it entailed a social protection system called a ‘social pact’ or ‘social contract’. The King’s vision articulated in the NMD promises changes that many Moroccans have long been calling for. The government has created several intermediary organizations mandated to work on reforms, which reflect citizens’ expectations but keep the pace of change under control. From an international cooperation perspective, these bodies are potential partners for reforms and achieving common development objectives. This article addresses two related questions: what scope of action do Moroccan intermediary organizations have to press for changes to the social contract under the NMD? Do they require international support in fulfilling their roles as change makers? Our analytical framework is based on scholarship exploring political settlements and institutional mandates in neo-patrimonial political systems. We focus on three intermediary organizations relevant to the deliverables of the social contract and discuss the extent to which they push the limits of their mandates to facilitate change. We then turn to the support that international development cooperation could provide.
Myanmar
(Gerard McCarthy, Kyle Nyana – Danish Institute for International Affairs) Following Myanmar’s February 2021 coup, checkpoints have exploded, crucial to both the military junta and resistance forces. Based on fieldwork in Sagaing Region and Chin State in 2022-2023, this paper theorises the relational dynamics at and between their respective checkpoints. Checkpoints are variously used by the junta to suppress resistance and generate revenue, and by resistance forces to undermine the military’s supply lines and tax high-value goods. These dynamics have forced livelihood adaptation as rural households increase subsistence agriculture, deepen local reciprocity and barter practices and shift social roles – especially for women. Driven both by necessity and anti-dictatorship grievances, we find that practices of mutuality, resource pooling and adaptation, encouraged by roadblocks and the constraints they impose on movement, are deepening the structural resolve of communities to support the resistance movement in the struggle against dictatorship.
Philippines
(Henry Storey – Lowy The Interpreter) It would be an understatement to say that Philippines President Marcos “Bongbong” Jnr has exceeded American expectations. Under Marcos, the Philippines has resumed patrols with security partners in the South China Sea and revived and expanded the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Signed in 2014 but stymied under Marcos’ predecessor Rodrigo Duterte – who also suspended joint patrols and flirted with tearing up foundational aspects of the alliance – EDCA grants the US military access to nine sites adjoining the South China Sea and waters near Taiwan.
Marcos vs Duterte: Domestic politics meets grand strategy | Lowy Institute
South Asia
(Raja Rajendra Timilsina, Dil Rahut, and Apeksha Embuldeniya – Asian Development Bank Institute) Informal employment encompasses workers who are not effectively covered by formal arrangements, such as commercial laws, reporting procedures for economic activities, income taxation, labor legislation, or social security laws. This lack of coverage leaves them exposed to economic and personal risks (ILO STAT 2023, ILO 2023a, 2023b, 2024a, 2024b; DW4SD Resource Platform 2002). In developing countries, a substantial portion of employment and output generation is concentrated in the informal sector, contributing significantly to gross domestic product (Schneider et al. 2010).
Social Protection for the Informal Economy in South Asia – Asia Pathways (asiapathways-adbi.org)
USA – China
(Nancy Qian – ASPI The Strategist) With Donald Trump still leading in polls ahead of the US presidential election, many are wondering how a second Trump administration would approach China. Trump’s stance on purely political issues is unclear. He recently remarked that Taiwan should pay for US defence, hinting at an unwillingness to defend the island from attack by China, even as his former, and perhaps future, advisers advocate a large military buildup in Asia. But Trump’s economic approach to China is much less ambiguous: the two countries are competitors, and America must win.
Trump is likely to escalate the US-China trade war | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(East Asia Forum) J.D. Vance, Donald Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, has argued that American manufacturing, even of mundane items such as toasters, should be prioritised over imports. But this narrative of fostering domestic production, one that has also been embraced by President Biden in his administration’s lament about Chinese overcapacity, disregards the positive impact of cheap foreign-made products, such as China’s renewable technology, on bolstering the global economy and energy transition.
The industrial overcapacity chimera, a boon to the global diffusion of green tech | East Asia Forum
