Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Africa – China – West
(Kiel Institute for the World Economy) The motivation behind the West’s and China’s granting of loans to African countries differs considerably. Western countries are more likely to lend to resource-poor and highly indebted African countries than China. China’s lending to Africa is more driven by its economic interests, lending to countries with richer resources, lower risk of default, and higher willingness to pay for loans. These conflicting interests jeopardize much-needed debt relief for African countries, according to a new study by the Kiel Institute that examines lenders’ motives for lending to African countries.
Western countries lend more to heavily indebted African countries | Kiel Institute (ifw-kiel.de)
Armenia
(Vali Kaleji – The Jamestown Foundation) On July 12, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia plans to withdraw from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. This confirmation follows agreements for Russian border guards to leave Armenia, further moving Yerevan away from Russian influence. For now, Yerevan has only frozen participation in the CSTO, with the intention to officially leave the body in the near future. When Armenia does, the organization will lose its influence over the South Caucasus, and Russia will no longer have as strong of a foothold in the region. Armenia’s strategic shift away from Russia signifies a transformation in its geopolitical stance, seeking greater autonomy, alignment, and cooperation with Western and regional powers.
Armenia Reaches ‘Point of No Return’ in Withdrawal From CSTO – Jamestown
Australia
(Daria Impiombato – ASPI The Strategist) Australian government departments should develop an engagement strategy with online influencers and invite them to join the press in attending international and security events. In a society increasingly dominated by social media or other content-sharing online platforms, issues of security, defence and international affairs are still obscure to many. This is an issue that weakens our democratic processes, it must be addressed, and it can be addressed in part by engaging with increasingly influential influencers.
(John Coyne, Henry Campbell, Angela Suriyasenee, and Justin Bassi) Over the last few months, Australia has witnessed the tragic Bondi attack, Wakely Church stabbing, Sydney University stabbing, and an alleged attempted terrorist attack on the offices of NSW MLA Tim Crakanthorp. Today, in response to Australia’s deteriorating national security environment, Australia’s terrorism threat level has been raised to ‘probable’—indicating that the level of risk of a terror attack is greater than 50 percent in the next 12 months. While announcing the change, the government has been clear in not attributing this change to any singular threat or issue. Instead, it’s the result of expert assessments by ASIO and reflects several factors: the threat of lone actors; more Australians embracing a range extremist ideologies; and an increased willingness to use violence to advance their political, ideological or religious objectives. It may also be influenced by geopolitical events, including the Israel-Gaza conflict, and reflect recent international terrorist attacks.
(David Rajkovic – ASPI The Strategist) Time and time again, cyber attackers have shown nothing is off limits. Healthcare, telecommunications and banking. Education, public sector and energy. In the past few years, headlines have highlighted the scale of disruption cyber attackers will inflict, with each sector falling victim to incidents that took systems offline, exfiltrated sensitive data, or both. Against this backdrop, successive Australian governments have implemented and tightened regulations as part of the Security of Critical Infrastructure (SOCI) Act. This legislation aims to strengthen the security and cyber resilience capabilities of Australia’s critical infrastructure industries in the face of ongoing attacks.
Bangladesh
(Soumya Bhowmick – Observer Research Foundation) In just over 50 years of independence, Bangladesh has transformed from one of South Asia’s poorest countries into an ‘Asian Tiger’ in the making. Despite a tumultuous start marked by the 1971 Liberation War and the devastating Great Cyclone of 1970, Bangladesh has made significant strides in economic development, particularly in the ready-made garments (RMG) sector. The country’s economic transformation began in earnest in the early 2000s, with GDP growth rates consistently above 6 percent since 2011, excluding the pandemic-hit year 2020.
Bangladesh at crossroads: Export sustainability amid political unrest (orfonline.org)
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) After an escalating round of protests in Bangladesh in recent months, longtime leader Sheikh Hasina, who had fought back many prior demonstrations, has resigned and left Bangladesh, according to the army chief. Although many Bangladeshis have been angry at Hasina’s heavy-handed rule for years, this fury came to a head this summer. After Sheikh Hasina and her long-ruling, increasingly authoritarian Awami League seemingly crushed a first round of protests related to set asides for relatives of independence war veterans several weeks ago in Bangladesh, through massive arrests, torture, and murders, there was a degree of forced calm in the streets of Dhaka and other parts of the country. In addition, the government thought it had potentially addressed part of the root causes of the protests, as the top court reduced in July the number of jobs allocated to relatives of people who fought in the Bangladesh war of independence, a system that had turned into a major source of political patronage for Hasina and her party.
China
(Devendra Kumar – ASPI The Strategist) The China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) is a common element in an extraordinary number of high-level corruption arrests of military offices and defence-industry officials, a review of Chinese documents and official statements reveals. The full implications are uncertain, but there is a clear possibility of involvement of the CMSA’s advance projects, maybe those with a military purpose. On the other hand, the agency may merely seem by happenstance to be at the centre of military corruption, since its management is heavily military. The arrests since 2019 include four members of the CMSA’s governing committee and officials from big state-owned aerospace and defense companies associated with the agency.
(Yixiao Zhou – East Asia Forum) On 17 May 2024, China introduced a range of measures aimed at stabilising its struggling property sector, which saw a 3.9 per cent year-on-year decline in new house prices in May 2024. This decline in property prices could have a negative impact on China’s economy and could pose risks to financial stability. Despite these measures, China’s household leverage ratio, high property price-to-income ratio and demographic trends suggest there will be a continued downward pressure on prices. The structural problems in China’s property market can only be solved by reforms in land allocation, financial market regulation and urbanisation policies.
Rescue measures won’t fix the structural problems in China’s property market | East Asia Forum
(Won Seok Choi – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) Intensifying geopolitical conflicts such as the U.S.-China conflict, clashes in the Middle East, and the Russia-Ukraine war are leading to a rise in related international sanctions and export control measures. In this international environment, it is important to understand the changes in China’s export control system, as China’s share of exports in global exports stands at around 20.4% as of 2022. The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China published a white paper titled “China’s Export Controls” on Dec 29. This white paper is instrumental in understanding the operation of China’s export controls, and contains four main contents: (1) the nation’s basic position on export control, (2) improvement of laws and regulations by export control, (3) modernization of export control systems, and (4) promotion of international exchange and cooperation.
China – Cambodia
(Abhishek Sharma- Observer Research Foundation) In the past two decades, Sino-Cambodian bilateral relations have shifted from a primarily military partnership to a multifaceted one encompassing trade, development finance, military ties, security cooperation and deepening people-to-people ties. These developments were facilitated by the current Cambodian Prime Minister’s deepening relationship with the Chinese government, BRI cooperation between the bilateral partners, and Cambodia’s deteriorating ties with the United States (US). The involvement of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in financing and constructing the Cambodian Ream Naval base since 2020 and the subsequent presence of two Chinese naval warships since December 2023 is a key example of the deepening Sino-Cambodian relationship. It is also noteworthy that the Cambodian government demolished four US and Australia-backed structures in the naval port before the Chinese navy commenced port development.
Ream Naval base: China’s expanding influence in Cambodia (orfonline.org)
China – South Korea
(Seungshin Lee, Wonseok Choi, Ji Young Moon, Su Yeob Na, Jonghyuk Oh – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) This paper reviews China’s policy of nurturing small and medium sized enterprises. The Chinese government is expanding its establishment of national manufacturing innovation centers necessary to promote national strategies. It plays a very important role in the financial support process for these hidden champions. This is because the government certification process to identify hidden champions is linked to direct and indirect financial support using government and private capital.
Climate Action and Energy Transition
(Scott B. MacDonald, Alejandro Trenchi – The National Interest) Pushed along by geopolitical upheaval increasingly reminiscent of the 1930s, global energy markets are polarizing. Rhetoric between nations is heated, economic disengagement has emerged as a core foreign policy consideration, and governments are being pushed to delineate between their friends and foes. Nowhere is this more evident than in global energy markets, ranging from oil and gas to renewable energy.
The Changing Global Energy Map | The National Interest
Eurasia
(Ivan Timofeev – Valdai Discussion Club) Speaking at the Russian Foreign Ministry on June 14, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed the key principles of the security architecture of Eurasia. The idea itself was voiced in the president’s message to the Federal Assembly on February 29. It is highly likely that it will become one of the supporting structures of the new Russian vision of security on the continent. The principles revealed by the president indicate that Eurasian security will be understood comprehensively.
Eurasia’s Security System: The Economic Aspect — Valdai Club
European Union
(Cornelia Schmidt-Liermann – Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales) Las recientes elecciones parlamentarias de la Unión Europea han atraído considerable atención, no solo por parte de los analistas políticos, sino también de ciudadanos de diferentes latitudes. En primer lugar, con una participación electoral del 51 % de los ciudadanos habilitados a votar (aproximadamente 200 millones de personas), fueron los comicios europeos más convocantes de los últimos treinta años. En segundo lugar, los resultados demostraron tendencias –pero también reafirmaciones– en la composición interna del Parlamento Europeo. En tercer lugar, fueron los primeros comicios europeos en el contexto de una guerra en la propia Europa que ha sido una zona de paz durante décadas.
Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (cari.org.ar)
(Center for Social and Economic Research) Effective labour market integration and poverty reduction require core skills such as literacy, numeracy, digital literacy, multilingualism, transversal skills and social (life) skills. As employment shifts towards the green and digital transition, these skills will be crucial in all sectors. European society continues to struggle with visible skills inequalities. Key drivers of skills inequalities include socio-economic status, gender, sexuality, ethnicity, migrant status, disability, age and geographical location. These factors create significant barriers to quality education and training, which are essential for skills development. To address these disparities, it’s crucial to rethink skills programming. The focus should not only be on meeting current demand but also on tailoring training initiatives to support disadvantaged groups, ensuring that no one is left behind in these crucial transitions. By examining determinants of vulnerability and providing concrete examples from various country-based case studies, we can better understand and address the unique challenges faced by those most at risk of skills poverty.
European Union – Central Asia
(Stefan Meister, Judith Heckenthaler – German Council on Foreign Relations) Russia’s war on Ukraine has raised the interest of the EU and Central Asian (CA) states in greater cooperation. While Brussels needs alternative sources for energy supply and raw materials, CA countries want to diversify their economic and political relations. But ongoing structural differences in governance, rule of law and the role of civil society in CA limit progress in their relations. To support structural changes in CA countries and take relations to the next level, the EU needs to engage more with CA states at the highest level and build up leverage.
Upgrading EU-Central Asia Cooperation | DGAP
European Union – Western Balkans
(Piotr Buras, Marie Dumoulin, Tefta Kelmendi, Marlene Marx – European Council on Foreign Relations) Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine brought a new geopolitical urgency to EU enlargement. The EU now faces the task of balancing that urgency with the need to help aspiring members in the Western Balkans and the eastern neighbourhood transform into genuine liberal democracies. Indeed, the EU’s imperative to ensure it remains a community of resilient democracies means democracy promotion in candidate countries is a key geopolitical interest for the bloc. The policies and instruments the EU has deployed in pursuit of democracy promotion in its neighbourhood – primarily the enlargement policy and eastern neighbourhood policy – hold several important lessons for the post-2022 round of enlargement. The EU will need to apply its conditionality more consistently and predictably. It should also approach cooperation with ‘hybrid’ regimes in both regions in a more principled way, by supporting civil society and non-state initiatives to bring about change ‘from below’. But democracy promotion starts at home – and the EU will need to address its own rule of law crises to prevent systemic competition between autocracies and democracies reaching further into the bloc, potentially hollowing it out from within.
Global Governance
(Jen Wittwer – ASPI The Strategist) Despite the adoption of United Nations Security Council resolution 1325 on women, peace and security in 2000, progress towards gender equality for uniformed women in UN peace operations has been exceedingly slow. The lofty aspiration of equality in peacekeeping through gender mainstreaming policies and practices remains elusive, hindered by misconceptions and entrenched systemic barriers and institutional challenges.
(Hyunsoo Kim – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) With the growth of the digital economy and digital trade, discussions to establish common rules for digital trade and to enhance cooperation in the digital economy are taking place on various platforms. At the multilateral level, WTO e-commerce negotiations are in progress, and at the bilateral level, e-commerce chapters of regional trade agreements are being revised. Korea is also expanding its digital trade network by promoting a number of digital trade agreements. Digital trade rules introduced within digital trade agreements are expected to have an economic impact through various channels. Digital trade rules are able to facilitate digital trade by reducing trade barriers, leading to overall trade expansion. Expanding trade not only boosts production through increased imports and exports, but can also increase productivity through the spillover of new technologies and increased competition. As the digital trade network expands, the need to analyze the economic impact of digital trade agreements also grows.
Global Risks
(Robert Peters – The National Interest) The international system is in chaos. Earlier this summer, North Korea claimed to have launched a ballistic missile carrying multiple independent nuclear warheads. This test comes on the heels of an increasing number of cruise and ballistic missile tests, potentially enabled by Russian technical assistance as a quid pro quo for North Korean support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, it is becoming increasingly clear that an Israel-Hezbollah war could become a reality, sending shockwaves across global energy markets.
It’s Time to Build the Nuclear Arsenal of the Twenty-First Century | The National Interest
India
(Veeramani Choorikkadan – East Asia Forum) India is positioned to become a significant contributor to global value chains due to its abundant low-wage labour force and recent policies aimed at attracting multinational corporations and facilitating export growth. To fully capitalise on this potential, India needs to address inverted import duty structures, labour and land market rigidities, tailor its trade agreements with economically diverse nations, and focus on sectors with comparative advantages, particularly labour-intensive industries.
Strategically reforming India’s role in global value chains | East Asia Forum
India – Maldives
(N. Sathiya Moorthy – Observer Research Foundation) In his maiden Independence Day address after assuming office last November, Maldives’ President Mohamed Muizzu recently thanked India for helping to strengthen his country’s fragile economy. He placed India and China in the same basket, yes, but even that’s saying a lot in the backdrop of his government’s recent positions viz New Delhi and simultaneous over-arching proximity to Beijing, especially in sensitive security matters in the early months of his regime.
India-Maldives relations: Recent developments and shifts in diplomacy (orfonline.org)
India – Sri Lanka
(Soumya Bhowmick, Nilanjana Das – Observer Research Foundation) Sri Lanka’s recent economic turmoil and recovery efforts present a complex narrative marked by internal challenges and external macroeconomic shocks. The economic crisis disrupted the financial landscape, leading to significant international involvement, mainly through the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and strategic partnerships with neighbouring countries like India.
Bridging borders: Strengthening India-Sri Lanka economic integration (orfonline.org)
Iran
(Paulo Botta – Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales) A veces se escucha en Irán la frase “sol kon, seft kon”, que significa “aflojar, apretar”. Esta frase hace referencia a períodos de dos administraciones reformistas seguidos por dos períodos de administraciones principistas: Mohammed Jatami (reformista, entre 1997 y 2005), Mahmud Ahmadineyad (principista, de 2005 a 2013), Hassan Rouhani (reformista, de 2013 a 2021), Ebrahim Raisí (principista, desde 2021 hasta su muerte en un accidente aéreo el pasado mes de mayo). Ahora, Masud Pezeshkian, reformista, acaba de ser electo en segunda vuelta con poco más de 11 millones de votos por sobre el candidato conservador Said Jalili, quien obtuvo 9 millones de votos… “Sol kon, seft kon”.
Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (cari.org.ar)
Japan
(Gyupan Kim – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) As the competition between the US and China to gain technological hegemony competition has intensified, the Japanese government has been strengthening its economic security strategy on domestic and international fronts. First, let’s examine Japan’s supply chain risk management policy from the perspective of its extensive economic security strategy.
Middle East
(Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Katie Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Marcus Mildenberger, Ria Reddy, Carolyn Moorman, Gabriel Wein, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Iranian Retaliation: Iranian armed forces-run Defa Press published a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel on August 5, which likely aims to decrease Israel’s ability to effectively defend against an Iranian attack by causing Israel to air- and missile-defense assets and creating panic among civilians. These targets are not all proportionate with Haniyeh’s killing, and publishing some of the targets likely seeks to create informational and economic effects instead of identifying precise targets. Other targets would be significant escalations and seem likely to cause civilian causalities, which Iran would likely calculate is counter-productive to efforts to establish deterrence with Israel.
West Bank: The IDF has deployed additional forces near Israeli communities adjacent to Tulkarm after receiving a credible threat that Hamas and other Palestinian militias may conduct an October 7-like infiltration operation into Israel from the West Bank.
Russia and Iran: Iran and Russia are continuing to promote increased cooperation ahead of the Iranian retaliatory strike against Israel. Russian officials likely seek to coordinate with Iranian officials ahead of the strike given the implications an Iranian strike launched in part from Lebanon and Syria could have for Russian forces in Syria.
Jordan and Iran: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi in Tehran on August 4.
Iraq: An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attack targeting US forces at Ain al Asad Airbase in Anbar Province injured multiple US servicemembers.
Iranian Cabinet Formation: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced three new appointments in his government on August 4. These appointments included a former Rouhani economic adviser, a former Central Bank deputy governor during the Ahmadinejad administration, and a former Tabriz MP and Tabriz City Council chairman who has worked previously with Pezeshkian.
Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck and killed the commander of Hamas’ Sheikh Radwan Battalion in Sheikh Radwan, southern Gaza City, on August 4.
Iran Update, August 5, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Randa Slim, Brian Katulis, Mirette F. Mabrouk, Howard Eissenstat, and Marvin G. Weinbaum – Middle East Institute) Monday Briefing: The Middle East is the closest it has ever been to an all-out war
(Joshua Yaphe – The National Interest) Nine months into the war in Gaza, Israel is still negotiating with Hamas under international pressure from the United States, regional neighbors, and protesters from around the world. It is the surest sign that the most likely outcome of this conflict is a return to the status quo that existed before October 7.
Gaza: A Return to the Status Quo Ante | The National Interest
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The secretary of Russia’s Security Council arrived in Tehran on August 5 as fears of an Iranian strike on Israel continued to grow. Sergei Shoigu, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was shown on the Russian Ministry of Defense-controlled Zvezda TV channel meeting Rear Adm. Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander who serves as secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council. The channel reported that Shoigu would also meet with newly inaugurated Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Head of Russian Security Council Arrives in Iran (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi traveled to Iran on August 4 to discuss regional developments with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri Kani. Safadi is the first Jordanian foreign minister to pay an official visit to the Islamic Republic since 2015. His trip comes as the region anticipates an Iranian attack on Israel to avenge the killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in a presumed Israeli strike in Tehran on July 31. According to media reports, Tehran suggested that Israel was “sending mediators to contain the situation,” but Safadi maintained that he “did not come to Tehran to convey a message from Israel to Iran or vice versa.” Safadi said on X that he delivered a message from Jordan’s King Abdullah to Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian “about the regional situation” and “held talks with the [Iranian] Foreign Minister about the dangerous escalation taking place in the region.”
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Along with attacks on other fronts, Iran may use Palestinian proxies in the West Bank to carry out its threatened retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders abroad, an Israeli broadcaster reported on August 5. According to the Army Radio report, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) scrambled several infantry companies over the weekend to protect civilian communities in the Sharon region, along the West Bank boundary, based on intelligence reports that they could come under imminent attack by Hamas terrorists under Iranian instruction. The IDF did not immediately comment on the report. Over the weekend, Israeli drone strikes eliminated nine terrorists in the area of Tulkarm, a West Bank city within driving distance of the Sharon, saying some of them were en route to carry out an attack.
Israel Braces for Possible Iranian Proxy Attack From West Bank (fdd.org)
(Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal – BESA Center) Israel’s flawed strategy of deterring and appeasing its adversaries has had a negative impact on military thinking. In recent decades, the border fence has turned from a tactical measure into a mental barrier. The fence was seen to distinguish between “their territory” and “our territory,” or between a dangerous space and an apparently safe one. The lesson of the failure of October 7 is not to erect stronger obstacles. We have built border barriers in the north and south many times over the decades, and they always fail. A border is a political concept, not a military one. The relevant military concept is a “front.” A front, on both sides of the border, is a challenging combat space that requires tactical independence for the forces, especially in the areas of combat gathering, fire support and air defense.
It’s Not a Border. It’s a Front. (besacenter.org)
(Efrat Aviv – BESA Center) Erdoğan’s threat that Turkey will enter Israel, as it did Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, is one of the most serious statements in the history of Israel-Turkey relations. This article describes the political context and background of this threat and explores what might be behind it and where it may lead in the relations between the countries. It analyzes the political and economic challenges Erdoğan is facing, with a focus on Turkey’s foreign policy in recent years. While Erdoğan’s threats should be taken seriously, it is unlikely that they will materialize at this stage, though it is important to keep a close watch on Turkey’s actions in the future.
Erdoğan, You Can’t Sail a Ship with Words* (besacenter.org)
(Yohanan Tzoreff – INSS) Over the past two years, the collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been touted as a very realistic possibility, given the Israeli government’s policy of implementing “facts on the ground”; that is, expanding the settlement enterprise in a way that is, for the most part, irreversible and undermines the already weak position of the PA. The collapse—or toppling—of the PA would set the Israeli–Palestinian process back more than 30 years and would place Israel in an immensely difficult situation in terms of international diplomacy. The collapse of the PA would be considered the harbinger of the end of the age of agreements and could even persuade the moderate Arab states to end their efforts to normalize relations with Israel. In addition, the PA’s collapse would bring an end to the shared interests of Israel and the PA, which has been expressed in security cooperation, usually to Israel’s satisfaction. It is also feasible that those Palestinians serving in the PA’s security forces could turn on Israel—tens of thousands of armed men who could join the Palestinian factions’ violent struggle against Israel. In the absence of the PA as a moderating factor, it is also possible that a popular uprising could break out in the territories.
The Collapse of the Palestinian Authority: The Scenario Israel Must Avoid | INSS
(Eldad Shavit, Chuck Freilich – INSS) Following the threats of Iran and Hezbollah to respond to the assassinations of Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the US administration decided to significantly increase its forces in the region, including deploying additional aircraft carriers, vessels, and pilots.
The Strengthening of American Forces in the Region: Implications | INSS
NATO
(Azriel Bermant, Shimon Stein – INSS) Amid concerns over the stalemate in Ukraine, alarm over Russia’s hostile actions against member states, and a heightened threat from China, NATO has seen fit to take actions to strengthen the alliance in a bid to hedge against a hostile US administration, should Trump return to the White House in January. From an Israeli perspective, it is important to note the language of the alliance in regard to Iran, which is viewed as a malign actor that poses a threat to Euro-Atlantic security. Given NATO’s efforts to engage with its “southern neighborhood,” Israel should explore an opportunity to strengthen its dialogue with the alliance.
The 75th Anniversary of the NATO Summit and the Future of the Alliance | INSS
(Alexander Vorontsov – Valdai Discussion Club) The reaction of Moscow, Pyongyang and Beijing, voiced essentially in unison by states which are organisationally independent and despite the lack of any special coordination on their part, is not only not accidental, it is quite natural: it reflects a common or very similar vision of strategic threats and challenges to their own national security both in the East Asian region and in the world as a whole.
Pakistan
(Saman Ayesha Kidwai – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Pakistan announced the launch of the Azm-i-Istehkam (Resolve for Stability) operation in June 2024 to eradicate terrorism, the 12th such military operation since 2007. The federal government has advanced this to address the backlash of nurturing and facilitating violent extremism and terrorism across its borders for decades.
Assessing Azm-i-Istehkam | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
Russia – Africa
(Oleg Barabanov – Valdai Discussion Club) In late July 2024, the Valdai Discussion Club held its Second Russian-African Conference. A year ago, ahead of the Russia-Africa Summit, the club organised the first conference of this kind in St. Petersburg. This time, the event was held on African soil, in Tanzania, with the support of the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Tanzania and the Russian House in Dar es Salaam. Experts from the three African BRICS member countries — Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Africa — were invited to participate in the conference. More than 20 Tanzanian representatives from politics, business, the media, science, higher education, and civil non-governmental organisations also took part in the conference. The conference significantly contributed to strengthening ties between Russian and Tanzanian experts and to a better understanding of each other’s positions. All this laid the foundation for the development of fruitful bilateral cooperation in the future.
A Year After the Summit: Development of Russian-African Cooperation — Valdai Club
(Konstantin Pantserev – Valdai Discussion Club) African countries have long considered advanced information technology to be a key tool that can provide a new impetus to the development of their economies, making them more innovative. Russia is ready to cooperate with African countries in all areas that involve their use. At the same time, from our point of view, the most significant of these areas will be the following: information security, cloud technologies and artificial intelligence.
Technological Cooperation Between Russia and African Countries — Valdai Club
Russia – Venezuela
(Ivana Stradner, Jason Jay Smart – Foundation for Defense of Democracies) Vladimir Putin said a multipolar world has become a reality. And while some, in the West, laugh off Moscow’s plans to undermine the post-World War II global order, the Kremlin is openly waging an unnervingly successful ideological war. Putin does not need to send tanks or jets to Brussels, London, or Washington to weaken the West. Rather, by focusing on strengthening existing partnerships across the Global South Putin is garnering support for an anti-American world order. Highlighting this point is Putin’s reinvigorated efforts to back the Venezuela’s autocrat, President Nicolás Maduro, who is teetering on verge of being overthrown following a re-election widely considered to have been falsified, as exit polls show that around two-thirds of Venezuelans voted for the opposition candidate.
Maduro Is Putin’s Proxy and Must Be Stopped (fdd.org)
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD’s Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.
A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD’s Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future.
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met with various high-ranking Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akhbar Ahmadian in Tehran on August 5.
Russia is tightening pre-departure standards for Tajik migrants hoping to work in Russia, likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to address security threats from the Islamic State’s Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), citing satellite imagery, reported that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3.
Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk and near Donetsk City and Robotyne.
The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in domestic political roles.
(Taras Kuzio – The Jamestown Foundation) The West’s approach to Moscow’s war against Ukraine lacks the clearly defined objective of Russia’s total military defeat. This has contributed to protraction of the war due to misunderstandings of the conflict’s origins and the motivations of the parties involved. The Kremlin’s goals for its war include the complete subjugation and Russification of the Ukrainian people, fueled by the imperialist ideology of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The influence of the Russian Orthodox Church and its promotion and support of this “holy war” against the “satanic” West has further radicalized Putin’s agenda of the complete absorption of Ukraine and eradication of its national identity and culture.
Western Leaders Misunderstand Roots of Russia’s War Against Ukraine – Jamestown
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) The timing of the recent prisoner exchanges between Russia and the West has reawakened notions of negotiating a ceasefire with the Kremlin, though Moscow has shown no willingness to accept Kyiv’s most basic terms. More likely, Russian President Vladimir Putin used the exchanges to signal to various operatives and “sleeper agents” that the risks of failure are low because the pool of Western and Russian hostages for future exchanges remains vast. Moscow may increasingly look to more desperate measures to feign readiness for negotiations, as replenishing the decimated “big battalions” is an increasingly difficult task in the face of a slowing offensive in Ukraine.
Prisoners Exchanges and the Prospects for Peace Talks – Jamestown
South Africa
(Frans Cronje, James Myburgh – The National Interest) South Africa is a country that manages to disappoint the optimists and confound the pessimists simultaneously. In the May 30 elections, the African National Congress (ANC), which came to power under Nelson Mandela in 1994 and won commanding majorities in each of South Africa’s five subsequent national elections, lost its electoral majority, falling to 40.1 percent of the vote.
Assessing South Africa’s New Government | The National Interest
South Korea – India
(Jeong Gon Kim – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) Modi would win a third term, as his strong leadership has led to solid economic growth and raised India’s international profile. However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) failed to win the number of seats it had hoped for, raising questions about the future of Modi’s leadership in his third term. Concerns about the rollback of pro-market policies, such as land and labor reforms that Modi has actively pursued, have led to volatility in the Indian stock market following the vote count. In particular, the fact that Modi will be governing in a coalition for the first time since coming to power, and is likely to face strong opposition from the National Congress-led coalition (INDIA), has raised questions about his leadership going forward. In short, the challenge for the Modi government’s third term will be to overcome the leadership gap and pursue its policy agenda.
UK
(Andrew Dwyer – RUSI) In 2021, the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy presented the UK’s ‘responsible, democratic’ view on cyber power that set out a strategic narrative and organising concept for future cyber policy. Amid the reassessment of priorities by the new government under its Strategic Defence Review, the concept and practice of cyber power must also be evaluated for its effectiveness. The Labour administration inherits a well-developed suite of strategic levers of cyber power, including institutions in the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) and the National Cyber Force (NCF) in addition to deep expertise across government. This commentary takes stock of the UK position on cyber power as a strategic narrative and organising concept, the challenges of promoting responsible and democratic use, and what this might mean for the new government.
Reflecting on Cyber Power: A Labour Future? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
USA
(William H. Frey – Brookings) The nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate has shaken up the race in ways that have yet to fully play out. However, given the fact that she could become the first woman U.S. president, it is surely worthwhile to consider the role of the women’s vote in November’s election.
Kamala Harris’s chances in November could hinge on a women’s voting surge | Brookings
(Josh Lipsky – Atlantic Council) “Double, double toil and trouble; Fire burn and caldron bubble.” So sing the three witches of Macbeth as they add ingredients into their toxic brew. But while the famous chant is what is remembered from the scene, William Shakespeare spends far more time detailing each ingredient that goes into the pot. So Monday, as markets experience the highest fear factor since the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s worth taking a moment to understand what is—and what isn’t—contributing to actual danger. An instigating ingredient added this past weekend was the disappointing jobs report released on Friday. Analysts expected 180,000 jobs—which would signal a slowdown but still relatively healthy job growth. This was, it seems, what the Federal Reserve expected last Wednesday when it decided not to cut interest rates and its chair, Jerome Powell, said, “the labor market has come into better balance.”
(Desmond Lachman – The National Interest) We have to hope that the Federal Reserve realizes that today’s stock market weakness is unlikely to be a passing fad given the poor underlying world economic and political fundamentals.
Stock Market Crash Proves Federal Reserve Must Cut Interest Rates | The National Interest
(Andrey Sushentsov – Valdai Discussion Club) The tense situation ahead of the US elections was suddenly relieved by Joseph Biden’s decision to withdraw his candidacy from the presidential race. The intellectual and emotional impasse caused by his obvious inability to represent the interests of the Democratic Party was reflected in weak enthusiasm among both large and small donors. The feeling of impasse ended with the emergence of a new Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris. This inspired many voters, but it is unlikely that the enthusiasm will last.
The US Presidential Election and the Dilemmas of American Strategy — Valdai Club
