From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Algeria – Mali – Russia
(Assala Khettache – RUSI) Algeria, a long-time advocate of non-intervention, has for some time been confronting growing security risks posed by the expanding presence of Russia’s mercenary proxy, the Wagner Group, in neighbouring Mali. Despite Algeria’s historical ties with Russia, President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has openly criticised the use of mercenaries in both Mali and Libya. As tensions rise, Algeria faces the delicate task of balancing its critical partnership with Russia while considering whether military intervention in Mali is necessary to safeguard its interests. This article examines Algeria’s stance on Russian operations through Wagner forces in Mali, and the potential implications of Algeria’s response. – Mercenary Politics: Algeria’s Response to Wagner in Mali | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
ASEAN
(Susannah Patton – Lowy The Interpreter) This week, one of Southeast Asia’s smallest countries, Laos, will play host to its neighbours for the ASEAN Summit. It will also welcome the region’s great powers, including the United States, China and Japan, for the adjoining annual East Asia Summit. The defining backdrop for this year’s summitry is incomplete political transitions in Washington and Jakarta. – Marking time: The ASEAN summit in Laos | Lowy Institute
Austria
(Daniel Hegedüs – German Marshall Fund of the United States) With migration and internal security dominating the political discourse, the results reflect a significant shift in the nation’s political landscape. The radical-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) won the election, a first, with 28.9% of the vote. This gives the party a theoretical claim to the chancellorship, raising profound concerns about the future of Austrian democracy. – Viennese Whirl | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Maciej Kisilowski – ASPI The Strategist) Commentators have been unanimous in describing Sunday’s legislative election in Austria as a victory for the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), and pressure is now mounting on the progressive president, Alexander van der Bellen, to give the populists a chance to form a government. But this narrative misconstrues the electoral outcome and risks handing anti-democratic forces an unearned windfall. To be sure, the FPO had a strong showing, winning more than 1.3 million votes (29.2 percent). But this is not unprecedented. In four of the last five elections, far-right parties attracted more than a million supporters, reflecting the fact that a significant minority of mostly rural Austrians (representing roughly one quarter of the electorate) has consistently supported uber-conservative political projects. Austria’s constitutional system, with its considerable regional decentralisation, has always been able to manage this unfortunate reality. – Austria’s far right did not win | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
China – Africa
(Umang Bhansali – Vivekananda International Foundation) China hosted the Ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing on September 4-6, 2024. In the Ministerial conference of the 2024 FOCAC summit, Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, stated that the summit would be ‘China’s most important home diplomatic’ effort of the year. Leaders and Ministers of 53 African countries, along with other regional and international organisations, participated in the summit. The summit was conducted under theme of ‘Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future.’. The summit was attended by heads of state and government from 51 African countries, presidential representatives from 2 African countries, the Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, adjoined by the Secretary-General of the United Nations. This article put forth the expectations and key outcomes of the 2024 FOCAC summit. – China-Africa Cooperation Forum: An Analytical Overview | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
India
(Vivek Chadha – Mmanohar Parrikar Institute) The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) published India’s mutual evaluation report on 19 September 2024. The exhaustive report highlights key aspects of India’s approach to Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Countering Terrorist Finance (CFT) risks and the FATF’s assessment of counter-measures adopted by India in this regard. – India’s Mutual Evaluation Report 2024: Assessment and Implications | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
India – Myanmar
(Sreeparna Banerjee – Observer Research Foundation) The 2023 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime report highlights a surge in drug production in Myanmar, posing serious security challenges. The cultivation of poppy, key for heroin production, increased by 33 percent in 2022, reversing a downward trend seen since 2014. Experts attribute the rise largely to livelihood challenges: Myanmar’s economy contracted by 18 percent in 2021, with only a modest rebound in 2022, and there are the compounding problems of currency devaluation and inflation. The uptick is pronounced in regions near the India-Myanmar border, such as Sagaing Region, Chin State, Kachin State, and Shan State. The escalation in drug seizures and poppy farming in Indian states like Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Arunachal Pradesh also points to the expansion of trafficking networks. This paper examines the security ramifications of the increasing drug trade along the India-Myanmar border. – From Poppy Fields to Black Markets: Understanding the Drug Trade Across India and Myanmar (orfonline.org)
Japan
(Jada Fraser – East Asia Forum) In 2023, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines renewed their commitment to maritime security under the Trilateral Cooperative Agreement, established in 2017 to address threats in the Sulu Sea. Known as Indomalphi, this trilateral partnership aims to enhance maritime security through coordinated patrols. To build on the partnership’s success and bolster regional security, Japan should sign a Memorandum of Understanding with Indomalphi as a capacity-building partner. This collaboration would leverage Japan’s maritime security expertise and foster stronger quadrilateral cooperation, reinforcing the Indomalphi framework and showcasing the value of minilateralism in enhancing regional stability. – Japan should board the Indomalphi ship | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
(Yuki Tatsumi – Stimson Center) On October 1, Shigeru Ishiba, after being elected as the president of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on September 27, was elected to be the 102nd prime minister of Japan. Having announced that he will dissolve the House of Representative (Lower House) on October 9, his administration can go down in Japanese political history as the shortest administration. – Japan Elects A New Leader: Is Anyone Missing Kishida Already? • Stimson Center
(Willy Jou – East Asia Forum) On 1 October, Shigeru Ishiba was sworn in as Japan’s new prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership election on his fifth attempt. His elevation to Japan’s top job was as much a result of a scandal-riven LDP’s dissolving its factions as it was a pragmatic move to promote a political outsider popular with the public. Yet Ishiba’s win was helped by some LDP legislators reluctantly backing him over the more conservative Sanae Takaichi — and this weak support base may reduce his ability to enact major policy shifts. – Fifth time’s the charm for Japan’s new prime minister | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Mauritius
(Natalie Fiertz, Tracy Rouleau, Noah Fritzhand, Sally Yozell, Heidi Prislan, Emilie Wiehe, Jonathan McCue – Stimson Center) Located in an active tropical cyclone corridor, Mauritius faces major threats from flash flooding and sea level rise, compounded by loss of ecosystem protection. Home to a densely populated 1.2 million people, and with an exclusive economic zone of 2.3 million square kilometers, the country also faces risks from rising solid waste production and a reliance on climate-vulnerable industries. – CORVI: Assessing Priority Climate Risks in Mauritius • Stimson Center
Middle East
(Wg Cdr Amit Gaur – Centre for Air Power Studies) The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict sheds light on the enduring and emerging challenges in employing offensive air power in urban settings against adversaries deeply embedded within civilian infrastructure. In reply to the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) demonstrated rapid and effective use of its air power. Israel’s actions underscore a strategy honed through experience and adaptation over time. Examining Israel’s past experiences is essential to grasp Israel’s approach to dealing with adversaries in urban environments. – Urban Skies: Israel’s Air Strategy in Gaza and Challenges for the Future – CAPS India
(Zain Hussain – Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) Following the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, Israel launched an intensive military campaign in Gaza, with the stated aims of destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities and bringing home 251 hostages taken during the incursion. While many states were quick to affirm Israel’s right to self-defence, international concern grew about the high death toll and the severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza as well as about Israel’s conduct of the war. This has included ground assaults and air strikes that have targeted or hit hospitals, schools, emergency shelters and United Nations and other humanitarian operations, as well as areas previously designated as ‘safe zones’ in Gaza by the Israelis. These have resulted in the deaths of journalists, humanitarian workers and peaceful protesters, along with many other civilians. – How top arms exporters have responded to the war in Gaza | SIPRI
(Amjad Iraqi – Chatham House) As the anniversary of Hamas’s 7 October assault approaches, global attention has tilted away from Israel’s war on Gaza as it metastasizes into a broader conflagration with Hezbollah and Iran. This dramatic turn of events is, tragically, characteristic of Palestinian history. For decades, Palestinians have been held captive to forces far beyond their influence, and this year has been no different. As Israel imposes new facts on the ground in the occupied territories, and Arab and Western capitals deliberate over ‘day after’ plans, Palestinians’ fate continues to be decided by external powers – largely without their participation. – Palestinians must be given the space to reorganize their political agency | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Alex Vatanka – Middle East Institute) After Iran’s second direct missile attack on Israel in less than six months, all eyes are on Israel’s next move. Reports suggest that Jerusalem plans a massive revenge that might include striking Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities and other strategic sites. Tehran has said that in that sort of development, it will retaliate in kind. If so, a soft landing out of this latest crisis might not be possible. In April, the last time Iran and Israel engaged in a high-risk round of tit-for-tat, both sides quickly opted to stand down, perhaps motivated by President Biden, who urged Israel to “take the win” and move on. It remains to be seen if de-escalation will be possible on this occasion. – Iran will feel Israel’s wrath like never before | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
(Daniel E. Mouton – Atlantic Council) The events of the past two weeks have witnessed an unprecedented degradation of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance. These developments present the Biden administration with more complex policy choices, but also some strategic opportunities. The reason why is because Israel is back at a point where it is not only deterring Iran, but dismantling key elements of Iran’s own deterrent network, particularly in Lebanon. How Israeli operations end will depend as much on US diplomacy as on Israeli military prowess. – How American diplomacy can stabilize Lebanon—and the Middle East – Atlantic Council
(Yossi Mekelberg – Chatham House) The first anniversary of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October and the horrific bloodshed that followed was always going to be a difficult time. What makes it worse is that war is still raging in Gaza Strip, the hostages haven’t been returned, millions of Palestinians live in inhuman conditions and the hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have escalated in recent weeks, leading to more bloodshed and devastation. More pain seems inevitable from the latest missile attack and likely retaliation between Iran and Israel. – Israel’s wars have sustained the destructive leadership which brought it to this crisis | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
New Caledonia
(Denise Fisher – Lowy The Interpreter) France’s new Prime Minister and his Overseas Territories Minister have set a conciliatory pathway for New Caledonia. This follows months of violent protests there over France’s attempted imposition of unilateral changes to voter eligibility, which would have reduced the impact of the indigenous vote. Paris is providing some hope that democratically based agreement on future governance might yet be achieved. – Paris offers signs of hope for New Caledonia | Lowy Institute
(John Connell – East Asia Forum) A botched independence referendum in 2021 and an attempt to enfranchise recent arrivals caused long-simmering tensions between to explode in New Caledonia. Ethnic tensions between generally pro-independence Kanak people, already facing poor socioeconomic outcomes, and New Caledonians of European descent, nearly brought the territory to civil war. Despite the end of violence, its underlying causes have not been addressed, and further disputes may yet erupt. – New Caledonia’s divided past and fractured future | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Nigeria
(Chris Kwaja, Matthew Edds-Reitman – United States Institute of Peace) Nigerians marked their 64th independence day on October 1 with widespread protests fueled by growing public anger over soaring inflation, worsening insecurity, ineffective governance and rising fuel prices. This marks the second time in less than three months that citizens have taken to the streets. In August, during the “10 Days of Rage,” the appearance of Russian flags and calls for military intervention distracted from Nigeria’s entrenched governance and economic crises — issues that continue to drive insecurity and demand urgent government action. The latest protests coincide with local elections, heightening pressure on the government to demonstrate a genuine commitment to addressing citizens’ concerns in a tangible, meaningful way. While unrest is always a risk, this moment should not be viewed as an immediate crisis but rather as a vital chapter in Nigeria’s democratic evolution. Protests and elections are essential democratic tools, offering a platform for the people to voice their grievances and for the government to engage in dialogue. How Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration navigates these challenges will be crucial, with the potential to reshape Nigeria’s political landscape for years to come. – Nigeria at a Crossroads: Navigating Protests Amid Elections | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)
North American Arctic
(Heather A. Conley, Sophie Arts, Kristine Berzina, Frida Rintakumpu – German Marshall Fund of the United States) In response to recent incidents damaging undersea energy infrastructure and communication cables in the Baltic Sea and High North, NATO countries have intensified their focus on critical undersea infrastructure (CUI) protection on the national, bilateral, and multilateral levels. Allies in the North American Arctic can build on important NATO initiatives but, given distances and the unique operating environment in this theater, the responsibility for protecting CUI assets in territorial waters will fall primarily to the United States, Canada, and the Kingdom of Denmark. – Protecting Undersea Infrastructure in the North American Arctic | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Pacific Island Countries
(Labanya Prakash Jena – Observer Research Foundation) Pacific Island Countries (PICs) comprise 14 nations that can be divided into three ethno-geographic groups: Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia. Although PICs are close to each other in the same ocean, there is rich diversity in terms of culture, landscape, and climate. PICs are among the most affected by climate change and natural disasters. The adverse effects range from an increase in flooding and drought, cyclones, storms, land erosion, and coastal land loss, loss of biodiversity, and livelihood. The frequency and intensity of climate-induced events will continue to increase if global greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed. However, PICs have green transition plans that will not only push global efforts to limit global warming but also make these countries economically resilient. Green transition plans in these countries include investing in low-carbon businesses, including renewable energy and transportation, as these countries are heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels for their energy needs. Transitioning to clean energy will help these countries withstand rising and volatile fossil fuel costs, curb inflation, and save foreign exchange. – Financing instruments for Pacific Island Countries in the age of climate change (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow released the draft proposal for Russia’s federal budget for 2025 and 2026–2027, which shows that the national defense budget will increase significantly from previous years, especially in comparison to the period before its war against Ukraine. For 2023 and 2024, Russia’s military expenditures have not been clear, and data released shows that for both years, what Moscow actually spent was significantly higher than the previously planned budget. These increases mean Russia’s government must implement ever more expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to avoid an economic contraction in real terms. The primary purpose of the Kremlin’s planned budgeting today is to prevent a real decrease in Russia’s GDP for as long as possible. – Russia Releases Proposed Military Budget for 2025 – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian cabinet is in support of a Duma proposal to allow the governors of oblasts, krais, and republics to form their own militias to deal with natural disasters and military interventions, such as the Ukrainian advancement into Kursk oblast. Moscow is confident it can control these new units, but the recent Prigozhin revolt and actions of Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechen forces cast doubts. With the eventuality of a transition of power or weakened regime, these regional forces would increase the probability and violence of a civil war. – By Allowing Regions to Form Militias, Moscow Increases Likelihood of Future Civil War – Jamestown
Russia – Moldova – Georgia
(Nicholas Lokker, Andrea Kendall-Taylor – Center for a New American Security) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has created ripple effects that extend well beyond Ukraine’s borders. Reverberations from the war have been particularly profound in former Soviet countries situated between Russia and the West, where Moscow has increased its efforts to revise the regional order—one the Kremlin would like to see built on compliant and nondemocratic states along Russia’s periphery. Russia’s efforts have elicited differing responses in these neighboring countries, triggering a series of geopolitical realignments that have the potential to reshape the geopolitical orientation of the region and that raise the risk of further instability along NATO’s boundary. – Exploiting Russian Weakness | Center for a New American Security (en-US) (cnas.org)
Sri Lanka
(Tamanna Salikuddin, Nilanthi Samaranayake – United States Institute of Peace) Two years after a seismic political and economic crisis rocked Sri Lanka and brought citizens to the streets in mass protests movements that ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka’s citizens went to the polls to cast their votes for a new president. On September 21, Sri Lankans elected the left-leaning Anura Kumara Dissanayake over established politicians including incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa. Dissanayake’s election represents a clear break from Sri Lanka’s old guard political parties, but he will face similar challenges of navigating economic strain and a shifting geopolitical environment while working to deliver on election promises. – Sri Lanka’s New President Faces Daunting Challenges and High Hopes | United States Institute of Peace (usip.org)
Sudan
(Volker Perthes – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) The United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) was established at the request of Sudan’s government to assist the country’s political “transition” towards domestic peace and democratic governance. Rather then being able to see its mandate through, the Mission witnessed a transition to the ongoing war between the country’s two military formations. UNITAMS’ good-offices function came into play in all three phases of the Mission’s lifespan – under the civilian-military partnership, under the military government, and in the first weeks of the war. Facilitation efforts became particularly relevant following the October 2021 military coup and after the conclusion of a Framework Political Agreement by the military and their civilian counterparts in December 2022. UNITAMS worked with a broad spectrum of civilian, “para-civilian” and military Sudanese stakeholders and with various regional and international partners. The establishment of the Tripartite Mechanism in cooperation with the African Union and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) lent additional legitimacy to the efforts of all three organisations – and was at the same time a valuable learning exercise. One of the main lesson for international actors is not to underestimate the strength of actors who fear losing out in a transition process that the international community seeks to support. The UNITAMS experience demonstrates that even a small political mission can play an effective good-offices role, but it also shows the limits of this function – especially where military actors are set for war. – Sudan’s Transition to War and the Limits of the UN’s Good Offices – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
Taiwan
(Jane Rickards – ASPI The Strategist) Taiwan has taken a big step towards bolstering civil defence, marshalling a range of resources and know-how across society. A top-level committee, launched in June and detailed in late September, has been working to incorporate civil expertise into defence policy. In an unusual move for Taiwan, the group includes representatives from grassroots organisations that have been working since 2022 to absorb lessons from Ukraine’s experience at war with Russia. – Taiwan mobilises civil society to bolster civil defence | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Transatlantic Relations
(Marco Overhaus – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) The idea that US power underpins international security remains deeply anchored in today’s US political elite. Ultimately, this idea also lies at the heart of US-led alliances, including NATO. But the three pillars of Pax Americana – US military strength, the country’s economic openness and the liberal-democratic foundations of American foreign policy – have, in fact, been crumbling for some time. The outcome of the US elections on 5 November 2024 may accelerate or deaccelerate these trends, but it will not fundamentally reverse them. Against this backdrop, Germany and the other allies will have to ensure that transatlantic relations are put on a new footing after the elections. And this is regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the ballot. – Europe and the End of Pax Americana – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
USA
(Christopher Preble, Barbara Slavin, Andrew Hyde, Rachel Minyoung Lee, Christina McAllister – Stimson Center) The vice presidential debate began with a question on the widening war in the Middle East, and a follow-on concerning Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal during his presidency. These were the only foreign policy questions of the evening. There was no mention of Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine. China came up only in the context of trade and tariffs. Tensions in the South China Sea, and what to do about Taiwan, never came up. The Pentagon’s budget – which is ballooning, in part, in order to deter war with China over Taiwan, or win that war if deterrence fails – was similarly off the table. – The State of US Foreign Policy in the Vance-Walz VP Debate • Stimson Center
(Sam Roggeveen – Lowy The Interpreter) On the question of America’s global security role, the choice between presidential candidates has rarely been starker than in 2024. Trump has been a transformative figure, the first president since the Second World War to denounce American global leadership, call for a renunciation of alliances, and demand a much narrower interpretation of US foreign interests. There is still a contest underway in the Republican Party to see how far Trump’s retrenchment efforts will go, but the direction of movement is clear. That leaves the Democratic Party, now led by Vice President Harris, as the last champion of American foreign policy exceptionalism, the final redoubt for those who believe that the United States has global interests which must, if necessary, be protected by a military force that is second to none. Former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney’s recent endorsement of Harris can be interpreted in this light. In her address to the Democratic National Convention accepting the presidential nomination, Harris promised to “strengthen — not abdicate — our global leadership”, and that America will always have “the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world”. – Kamala Harris and national security: The rising cost of military leadership | Lowy Institute
(Council on Foreign Relations) The United States national debt is rising to levels not seen since World War II. Many economists say Washington is on an unsustainable track, but no one knows when it will pass the point of crisis. What is at risk if U.S. debt continues to grow? – Who’s Afraid of the National Debt? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
USA – East Asia
(Cao Huyen, Nguyen Thanh Long – East Asia Forum) The complex historical and political dynamics among Northeast Asian countries impede traditional multilateralism while fostering minilateralism, a flexible and informal form of cooperation among like-minded states. The US–Japan–South Korea and China–Japan–South Korea trilateral frameworks exemplify this minilateral approach. In both trilateral arrangements, the superpowers are attempting to expand their cooperative efforts into the economic sphere. – The US and China draw strategic triangles in Northeast Asia | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
(Richard McGregor – Lowy The Interpreter) “Of course, China wants Trump to win.”. This is something I have heard often in recent months — in Australia, in the United States, and in Europe — in relation to the idea that Chinese leaders see political advantage in a Donald Trump victory in November. The same logic applied to Japan and South Korea — America’s most important allies in north Asia — reaches the opposite result: an assumption that both Tokyo and Seoul will barrack for the Democratic Party candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. But talk to officials and scholars on the ground in China, Japan, and South Korea, and a different picture emerges. – A Trump win splits the East Asian triangle | Lowy Institute
USA – Taiwan
(Richard C. Bush, Ryan Hass – Brookings) With public attention on foreign policy largely focused on Ukraine and Israel, it is understandable that Taiwan is not a main feature of debate in this election cycle. Even so, Taiwan is likely to rise as an issue commanding presidential attention over the next four years. Beijing appears intent on ratcheting up pressure on Taiwan in pursuit of its goal of unification. The people of Taiwan remain committed to upholding the status quo and not acceding to China’s goal of unification. – How would the Trump or Harris administration approach Taiwan? (brookings.edu)
