From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Entrepreneurial Ecosystem; Global Economy; India-Pakistan; Latin America; OECD; PKK; Romania; Russia; Russia-Latvia-Baltic; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); South Korea; Supply Chain Resilience; Syria; Terrorism/Extremism; US
Entrepreneurial Ecosystem
(OECD) The OECD Entrepreneurial Ecosystem Diagnostics report introduces a novel framework and dataset to assess and compare entrepreneurial ecosystems across all 38 OECD countries. Rather than producing a single index to rank countries, the report adopts a multi dimensional approach based on three core components: inputs, outputs, and variation. Inputs cover ten essential elements—Institutions, Culture, Networks, Infrastructure, Markets, Finance, Knowledge, Talent, Leadership, and Intermediate Services—captured through composite indexes built from about 40 indicators drawn from OECD statistics and other sources. Outputs reflect entrepreneurial performance, with indicators such as startup rates and business survival. The variation dimension measures how entrepreneurship is distributed socially and regionally, with attention to inclusivity, particularly for women and distribution of startups across regions. Each dimension is tracked at three time points to monitor ecosystem evolution and progress. Designed as a policy support tool, the report provides robust, evidence based insights to identify systemic bottlenecks and guide national strategies. It aims at facilitating informed dialogue and targeted policy action to build dynamic and balanced national entrepreneurial ecosystems. Released as a pilot, this first edition lays the foundation for future iterations, with continued refinement of data and analytical depth to enhance its relevance and impact. – Entrepreneurial Ecosystem Diagnostics | OECD
Global Economy
(OECD) The global outlook is becoming increasingly challenging. Substantial increases in trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and elevated policy uncertainty all pose significant risks to growth. If these trends continue, they could substantially dampen economic prospects. Rising trade costs—particularly in countries implementing new tariffs—are likely to fuel inflation, although this may be partly offset by softer commodity prices. Risks to the outlook remain substantial. Key concerns include further escalations or sudden shifts in trade policies, more cautious behaviour from consumers and businesses, and continued repricing of risk in financial markets. Inflation may also stay elevated for longer than anticipated, especially if inflation expectations continue to rise. On the upside, an early reversal of recent trade barriers could boost economic growth and help ease inflationary pressures. – OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1 | OECD
India – Pakistan
(Justin Bronk – RUSI) The aerial clashes during the recent fighting between India and Pakistan have drawn significant interest from air forces and air power analysts around the world, as well as a barrage of claims and counterclaims from both combatant nations’ governments, militaries and media. The highly polarised and nationalistic nature of the information space on such topics in both countries means that few official statements can be relied on at face value, and disinformation has been used to flood social media on both sides. It is only in recent days that Indian officials have publicly acknowledged the loss of fighter aircraft, and no explanations have yet been offered for what went wrong. However, based on analysis of geolocated wreckage, and discussions with officials and military personnel in numerous countries since the clashes occurred, there a few things that can be stated at this stage, albeit with caveats that they represent analysis based on fragmentary initial data-points. – Key Questions about the India-Pakistan Aerial Clashes | Royal United Services Institute
Latin America
(OECD) Achieving gender equality in education is not only a matter of social justice: it is a catalyst for economic growth and societal well-being. This OECD report explores gender disparities in education in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region, drawing on data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) to reveal their economic and social implications. It provides an in-depth analysis of gender gaps in secondary school attainment, academic performance, career choices and skills acquisition, highlighting regional patterns and differences among LAC countries and comparing them to OECD countries. The report underscores the importance of addressing systemic barriers faced by women and girls. It offers policy recommendations to promote gender equity in education, skills, and the workforce, particularly in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) fields, to unlock significant economic and social benefits and drive progress toward a more equitable and prosperous future for all. – Gender Differences in Education, Skills and STEM Careers in Latin America and the Caribbean | OECD
(OECD) The Trade and Gender Review of Latin America examines women’s engagement in trade in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru. It presents a quantitative and qualitative analysis of women in trade in three of their economic roles—as workers, business leaders, and consumers—and examines relevant trade policies that most affect them. The Review suggests policies that aim to better support women in trade in the seven countries including: incorporating and implementing gender-related provisions in trade agreements; supporting exports of women-led businesses; ensuring market access for goods and services that women produce and consume; ensuring coherence across policy areas including those that aim to tackle informality; as well as legal, regulatory and structural barriers that exclude women from labour markets and from accessing finance. These policy recommendations aim to ensure women in Latin America share in the benefits from trade and contribute to make their region more prosperous, and thereby a safer and more desirable place to live and work. – Trade and Gender Review of Latin America | OECD
PKK
(Burcu Ozcelik – RUSI) On 12 May 2025, the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced its decision to dissolve and end its armed struggle against the Turkish state. The announcement followed the PKK’s 12th Congress, held from May 5 to 7 in northern Iraq, and came after a February call from the group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, who urged the organization to lay down arms. This followed an unexpected call by right-wing nationalist leader and government coalition partner, Devlet Bahceli, who in October last year suggested that Öcalan could be granted parole if he renounced violence and disbanded the organisation. According to the group’s statement, the PKK’s struggle ‘brought the Kurdish issue to the point of resolution through democratic politics . . . As a result, activities carried out under the name “PKK” were formally terminated.’. Ending the four decades-long armed conflict, the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) process now expected to take place in the coming months is conceptually straightforward, yet translating this into practice in post-conflict settings is fraught with complexities. Recent trends in comparative counterinsurgency and DDR studies offer some insight into the challenges and strategic opportunities that may lie head for Turkey but will also serve as an important case study to inform future counterterrorism efforts and wider US and UK interests in the region. Comparative cases demonstrate that success can vary significantly based on local conditions and levels of political will across stakeholders. The interplay between DDR and peacebuilding processes with longer political horizons is also a factor, when it promotes legal reforms that can address the root causes behind the conflict and avoid a relapse into violence. The 12 May announcement does not explicitly outline a roadmap for the laying down of weapons, rather, it references disbandment, and the end of armed struggle in favour of the beginning of a new phase of democratic political struggle. – After the PKK: Peacebuilding Challenges in Turkey, Syria | Royal United Services Institute
Romania
(Corina Rebegea – The Jameston Foundation) Pro-EU candidate Nicușor Dan secured Romania’s presidency in the election’s second round on May 18, defeating far-right leader George Simion amid fears Simion would shift Romania’s foreign policy and weaken ties with Ukraine and the European Union. The election highlighted Romania’s democratic resilience despite intense polarization, online disinformation campaigns, and attempted foreign interference, including suspected Russian information operations aimed at undermining trust in the electoral process and Dan’s legitimacy. The ballot revealed changing demographic and political trends, with Dan’s support coming from urban centers, minorities, and Moldovan voters, while Simion gained ground in rural areas and among the Western European diaspora. – Romania Avoids Far-Right Pivot as Pro-Europeans Win Presidential Ballot – Jamestown
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The deepening drought in southern Russia is threatening the region and its food production, as well as Moscow’s relationship with neighboring states harmed by the reduced flow of the Volga River into the Caspian Sea. Southern Russia’s drought is having a serious negative impact on Moscow’s relationship with Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan—a trend the Kremlin has responded to with a mix of bluster and attempts to calm the situation. The impact of southern Russia’s drought on bordering countries demonstrates how problems within Russia and Moscow’s response to them can undermine Moscow’s relations with its neighbors. – Deepening Drought in Southern Russia Threatening Moscow’s Relations with Neighbors – Jamestown
Russia – Latvia – Baltic
(Hlib Parfonov – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is discreetly deploying new motorized rifle divisions and advanced artillery systems, including North Korean equipment, to regions near Latvia, forming a strategic reserve with little public visibility. Belarus is being transformed into an operational flank bastion through mobilization, infrastructure upgrades near the Latvian border, and large-scale exercises that simulate offensive maneuvers, indicating deep coordination with Russian strategic plans. Infrastructure developments in Russia’s northwest—such as railway and depot upgrades—signal preparations for a potential rapid advance into Latvia. The likely offensive axis would bypass strongholds in Latvia to reach logistical junctions, split North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defenses, and isolate Riga, potentially enabling a Baltic foothold. Drawing from its Ukraine experience, Russia may implement a “pulsing offensive” using mobile units, electronic warfare, and psychological operations to paralyze command structures and force a destabilizing ceasefire that acknowledges new territorial realities. – Russia Exploits Latvian Vulnerabilities to Undermine Baltic Defenses (Part Two) – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) On June 2, in Istanbul, Russia revealed the fine print of its terms for a ceasefire and political settlement with Ukraine. The stunningly successful Ukrainian Operation Spiderweb, hitting strategic airbases deep inside Russia with Ukrainian drones on June 1, overshadowed the Istanbul diplomatic meeting. Kyiv’s front-and-center diplomatic goal is an unconditional, comprehensive ceasefire agreement with Moscow for at least 30 days. The Kremlin is setting unacceptable military and political preconditions for formally consenting to such a ceasefire. Moscow aims to precipitate presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine within the context of ceasefire negotiations. Moscow hopes to throw Ukraine into chaos if elections are held during an official ceasefire, even as hostilities continue in the field and the air. – Russia Details Preconditions To Ukraine For Ceasefire And Political Settlement: Military Terms – Jamestown
(Seth G. Jones, Riley McCabe – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Russian military forces have failed to effectively advance along multiple axes in Ukraine, seized limited territory, lost substantial quantities of equipment relative to Ukraine, and suffered remarkably high rates of fatalities and casualties since January 2024, according to new CSIS data. While some policymakers and experts argue that Russia holds “all the cards” in the Ukraine war, the data suggests that the Russian military has performed relatively poorly on the battlefield. – Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine
(Michael C. Horowitz – Council on Foreign Relations) Ukraine said it had used 117 drones to target airfields deep in Russian territory. The daring attack demonstrated low-cost precision strikes accessible to almost any state or militant group. – Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web Shows Future of Drone Warfare | Council on Foreign Relations
South Korea
(Andrew Yeo – Brookings) On June 3, South Koreans elected Lee Jae-myung of the progressive Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) as their next president. This week’s snap presidential election brings a degree of closure to the political drama precipitated by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration in December 2024. In the absence of elected leadership over the past six months, President-elect Lee must now restore public confidence in South Korea’s highest office and stabilize the economy. He must resist the cycle of retribution and vengeance against political opponents even as he upholds justice and accountability. The new government must also turn its attention to pressing foreign policy issues. Maintaining the U.S.-South Korea alliance amidst tough trade negotiations with the Trump administration will be among the new government’s highest priorities. – What South Korea’s presidential election means for the US-Korea alliance
(Atlantic Council) No time for a victory party. Early Wednesday morning, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung was named the winner of South Korea’s presidential election, and later the same day he will be sworn into office, without the typical two-month transition period. The election and immediate instatement follow a stretch of political upheaval in South Korea. In April, conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office, after he declared a short-lived state of martial law in December 2024. So, will Lee’s leadership mean a calmer political future for the country? Looking at the wider region, how will the leadership shift from right to left affect South Korea’s policies toward the United States, North Korea, China, and Japan? – Experts react: What does South Korean President Lee Jae-myung mean for Indo-Pacific security? – Atlantic Council
Supply Chain Resilience
(OECD) What does supply chain resilience look like in today’s uncertain world? The OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review examines how countries can navigate risks through agile, adaptable and aligned supply chains. Featuring unique data and insights, the report explores trade dependencies, the costs of relocalisation, and how digitalisation and sustainability can shape stronger global supply chains. Designed for policymakers, firms and the public, it delivers clear, actionable takeaways. – OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review | OECD
Syria
(Middle East Institute) This on-the-record briefing, moderated by MEI’s Zeina Al-Shaib, discussed Syria’s post-sanctions era. Syria’s transitional president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, is reorienting the country toward the West and key regional partners, ending decades of isolation within Iran’s and Russia’s orbits. Crucially, both the United States and the European Union have suspended sanctions to support the country’s transition. With Syria at a crossroads, what does the post-sanctions landscape look like? This briefing featured Amb. (ret.) Robert Ford, the last US ambassador to serve in Syria and Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute (MEI). Also featured was Charles Lister, Senior Fellow at MEI and head of the Institute’s Syria Initiative. Our experts discussed the US’s policy about-face toward the interim Syrian authorities and the warming of relations between Washington and Damascus; what the termination of sanctions means for foreign investment in Syria; Iran’s potential spoiler role; the confidence boost President Sharaa is enjoying domestically; as well as the direction of Syria’s relations with its neighbors, particularly Israel, Turkey, and the Gulf states. – Syria’s Reset: A Post-Sanctions Economic Revival? | Middle East Institute
Terrorism/Extremism
(Soufan Center) At least eight people have been injured in an attack at an outdoor mall in Boulder, Colorado on June 1, which the FBI Director labeled a “targeted terror attack.”. The attack in Boulder is the latest in a series of violent incidents that have taken place since the Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023, and the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, which remains ongoing. Terrorists and extremists across the ideological spectrum – including far-right terrorists and neo-Nazis, as well as Salafi-jihadist groups – have utilized the conflict in Gaza to promote their narratives, bolster propaganda, recruit new members, and incite violence. The attack in Boulder did not occur in a vacuum but is a part of a broader feedback loop in which global events are used by politically radicalized individuals to justify domestic attacks, under the guise of political activism or resistance. – Terrorist Attack in Boulder, Colorado Against Pro-Israel Rally – The Soufan Center
US
(Tonantzin Carmona – Brookings) Cryptocurrencies are once again in the national spotlight due to a series of high-profile federal actions that have reignited crypto policy discussions. Shortly after Inauguration Day, the Trump administration issued an executive order to create the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets, and in March, issued another to establish a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” Recently, the president’s “crypto dinner” with top investors in the $TRUMP memecoin drew sharp media scrutiny, fueling broader concerns about conflicts of interest and corruption. At the same time, Congress has ramped up its focus on crypto market structure (efforts to regulate the crypto market, including crypto exchanges and related intermediaries) and stablecoin legislation (which would regulate stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to a stable value, such as the U.S. dollar). In the 119th Congress, both the STABLE Act and the GENIUS Act have advanced with bipartisan support, and the House recently unveiled the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. – Protecting the American public from crypto risks and harms
(Max Yoeli, Leslie Vinjamuri – Chatham House) A legal challenge against President Donald Trump’s use of executive power took centre stage last week, in a sign that his administration is entering a more challenging phase. Greater pushback from the courts has coincided with the departure of the president’s once closest partner Elon Musk, historically low approval ratings, and obstacles to delivering on the president’s foreign policy agenda. In a significant setback to Trump’s international economic agenda, a federal trade court ruled against a broad set of his tariffs levied under a law that was intended to deal with threats during national emergencies. Following a swift appeal, a higher court has stayed this judgment while it considers the administration’s arguments. In a unanimous opinion at the US Court of International Trade, a three-judge panel – one appointed by Trump himself – found in the initial judgement that the president’s ‘liberation day’ and retaliatory tariffs exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). It also found that Trump’s earlier tariffs on Mexico and Canada did not relate sufficiently to his justification for imposing them – that they were to curb a drug-related emergency. – Trump’s tariffs court challenge shows next 100 days will test executive authority | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
