From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Australia; Australia-Japan; Australia-US; China-US; Europe-Ukraine; European Union-China; India-Bangladesh; Japan; Pakistan; Russia-Ukraine’s Occupied Territories; Southeast Asia; US-Venezuela
Australia
(Anna Alexander – ASPI The Strategist) Northern Australia is primed for growth. Businesses and communities are stepping up, investing in new capabilities and pursuing opportunities in such sectors as energy, defence, agriculture, aviation and advanced manufacturing. Yet, ambitious efforts are hampered by funding systems that are slow, rigid or short-sighted. That’s a symptom of policy that has not kept pace with the realities of northern delivery. – Policy needs to keep pace with northern ambition | The Strategist
Australia-Japan
(Richard Neumann – Lowy The Interpreter) One of the major developments at COP30 in Brazil was Australia signing the “Belém Declaration to Transition from Fossil Fuels”. What does this mean for relations with Japan, Australia’s largest energy export market? Japan has played a pivotal role in the development of Australia’s resources industry from iron ore in the 1960s to being the foundation customer of the North West Shelf gas project in the 1990s and still regards LNG as the cornerstone of its energy security. – Japan lost its climate leadership – and now Australia can help | Lowy Institute
Australia-US
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) The signals from Washington on critical minerals are no longer ambiguous; they are decisive, strategic and aligned with Australia’s long-term interests. The issue is whether Canberra and industry can convert this momentum into concrete projects that deliver secure supply chains, new processing capacity, domestic industrial depth and worthwhile commercial returns. To do that, Australia must move at speed, locking in partnerships, prioritising specific minerals, and supporting companies ready to diversify minerals markets. Where geoeconomically feasible, it should also build the next generation of value-added manufacturing. – Australia must make the most of the US’s critical-minerals pivot | The Strategist
China-US
(Chris Lee – ASPI The Strategist) The five-year economic plan that the Chinese government issued in late October made clear that industrial investment and indigenous innovation will remain the centrepiece of the country’s strategic agenda. That’s a problem for China, because it suggests a concentration of resources on competing with the United States rather than undertaking reforms that would promote domestic consumption and improve citizens’ lives. It risks deepening existing structural challenges, slowing economic growth and ultimately trapping China in a downward structural imbalance spiral. – US–China trade war traps China in structural imbalance spiral | The Strategist
Europe-Ukraine
(Yuri Lapaiev – The Jamestown Foundation) The Ukrainian and European defense ecosystems are becoming more integrated through new funding channels for Ukraine, mutual technology and military strategy transfers, and joint production initiatives. European states are adopting Ukrainian-proven systems and tactics—such as counter-drone warfare, electronic warfare integration, and long-range strike methods—while Ukraine gains access to European industrial processes, funding, procurement frameworks, and advanced manufacturing standards in a two-way modernization cycle that strengthens both sides. Europe–Ukraine defense cooperation improves Europe’s military readiness while diversifying and growing Ukraine’s defense industry. – Europe–Ukraine Defense Industry Collaboration Expanding – Jamestown
European Union-China
(ZhongXiang Zhang – East Asia Forum) Viewing China’s clean tech manufacturing subsidies as the primary driver of its dominance in the EV market, the EU has imposed tariffs on all Chinese EV imports. But subsidies tell only part of the story, and it is unlikely that these measures will effectively dent China’s expansion into the European EV market. Moving forward, the EU and China must reach a compromise and consider implementing a minimum price strategy at least for major EV manufacturers from China. – China’s EV dominance sparks EU retaliation | East Asia Forum
India-Bangladesh
(Shanthie Mariet D’Souza – Lowy The Interpreter) “This is quite a game, politics. There are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.” On the face of it, this adage is being turned on its head by New Delhi, which has ignored Dhaka’s December 2024 request to extradite former Bangladesh prime minister Sheikh Hasina and former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal. However, it’s not just friendship with the former prime minister that could be shaping India’s current policy towards Dhaka. As bilateral relations have dived in recent months, New Delhi could be relying on Hasina to reverse-engineer Bangladeshi politics that have slipped out of India’s sphere of influence. That strategy, however, is fraught with risks. Not only might the outcome be counterproductive, but it also raises questions about policy towards its neighbourhood, where New Delhi has constantly struggled to find a friendly foothold despite its neighbourhood first policy. – High stakes in India’s refusal to send former Bangladesh PM to trial | Lowy Institute
Japan
(Yasuo Takao – East Asia Forum) Japan’s 2024 and 2025 elections ended the LDP’s long era of dominance, pushing it into minority rule and exposing deep demographic and ideological fractures. Policymaking is moving from internal party consensus to open parliamentary negotiation, fostering competitive pluralism. The LDP’s rightward shift under Sanae Takaichi accelerates fragmentation as voters drift to newer parties. Without a strong coordinated opposition, Japan risks facing political vulnerability, instability and a potential democratic deficit. – The end of LDP hegemony in Japan | East Asia Forum
Pakistan
(Sajjad Ashraf – East Asia Forum) Pakistan faces rising security and diplomatic pressures as talks with Afghanistan have collapsed amid escalating militancy, strategic mistrust and India’s renewed engagement in Kabul. Cross-border violence, political fragmentation and shifting regional alignments risk pushing both states toward a prolonged confrontation. Preventing a deeper crisis will require credible security cooperation, sustained diplomacy and regional restraint. – Pakistan edges towards a ‘two-front’ crisis | East Asia Forum
Russia-Ukraine’s Occupied Territories
(Maksym Beznosiuk – The Jamestown Foundation) Since 2022, Russia has replicated its federal administrative architecture in the occupied territories of Ukraine, seeking full legal, economic, and political integration by January 2026. The Kremlin established courts, prosecutors’ offices, security structures, tax and migration services, property registries, and social funds, all connected to federal digital oversight systems. These structures bolster Russian oversight and control, deepen residents’ dependence on Russian institutions, legitimize wide-ranging property seizures, and make future reintegration with Ukraine nearly impossible. – Russia Builds Coercive State Apparatus in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories – Jamestown
Southeast Asia
(The Soufan Center) Youth radicalization is becoming an issue of increasing concern in Southeast Asia, particularly nihilistic violent extremism (NVE) and memetic violence. Nihilistic violent extremist (NVE) perpetrators in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand have launched successful attacks, while multiple attacks in Singapore have been disrupted in the planning stages. Social media and online gaming are the mechanisms via which Southeast Asian male youth are being radicalized into nihilistic violent extremism, some as young as 12 years old. The True Crime Community (TCC) is emerging as a threat vector in Southeast Asian attacks in 2025. – Nihilistic Violent Extremism in Southeast Asia – The Soufan Center
US-Venezuela
(The Soufan Center) If Maduro refuses to leave the country, the Trump administration may feel compelled to take more aggressive action, beginning with, but not limited to, direct strikes against targets on Venezuelan soil, potentially evolving to include U.S. special forces raids. Although the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean has been described publicly as a counter-narcotics effort, the scale of the deployment suggests a broader intent from Washington to build sustained pressure on Venezuela’s leadership and to keep military options readily available if it chooses to escalate. Both Russia and China have remained mostly quiet and on the sidelines of the brewing tensions, even as both countries are allies of the Maduro regime. The U.S. has already invested considerable political and military capital into confronting Maduro, creating a dynamic in which stepping back without achieving a concrete objective would make it look weak. – Trump Ratchets Up Pressure on Maduro as Washington Turns Focus to Venezuela – The Soufan Center
