Daily from global think tanks
COMPLEX RESEARCH LABORATORY
Armenia
(Narine Chukhuran, Narek Minasyan, Viktorya Muradyan – German Marshall Fund of the United States) A recent change in Armenian foreign, security, and economic policy has garnered attention in Washington and Brussels, unleashing accusations in Moscow of betrayal by an ally. The government in Yerevan, however, describes its move as merely a response to a shifting political situation in the Caucasus, part of a new diversification policy that is centered on reducing dependence on Russia.
A Shift Away From Russia | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Belarus – Ukraine
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka recently announced that he had conducted backchannel talks with Kyiv to de-escalate military tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The announcement drew attention from Russian-language media and social networks but was largely disregarded in the West, highlighting some Western countries’ neglect of developments in Belarus. The successful backchannel dialogue between Minsk and Kyiv invites a reassessment of the West’s approach to Belarus. The bilateral de-escalation suggests that engaging Minsk diplomatically on some issues can yield practical and positive results.
Belarus and Ukraine De-Escalate Military Tensions on the Border – Jamestown
China – Palestine
(ThinkChina) Chinese academic Fan Hongda notes that China’s efforts to broker consensus between 14 factions in Palestine are a good step forward which could help pave the way for direct negotiations to be launched between Israel and a united Palestine.
China – Southeast Asia
(Sin Lu Tan – IISS) As the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) enters its second decade, Beijing seems focused on filling in the fine details of the project’s ambitious outline, first announced by President Xi Jinping in 2013. It appears that the next iteration of the BRI will shift away from grand mega-projects to prioritise ‘small and beautiful’ high-quality projects. The green economy seems to be a particular focus, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi noting during a press conference in early March that China will ‘redouble efforts to build a green Silk Road’.
China’s evolving Belt and Road Initiative in Southeast Asia (iiss.org)
China – Ukraine
(Liudmyla Kurnosikova – German Marshall Fund of the United States( Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China, marking his first trip to Beijing since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The visit, made upon the invitation of his counterpart, Wang Yi, will focus on ways to end Russian aggression and explore China’s potential role in achieving a stable and just peace.
Global Governance
(Kati Suominen – East Asia Forum) While global trade costs have dropped over the past 200 years, the paper-based trade documents still required in many developing nations contribute to trade delays and high costs, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Estimates suggest digitalisation and standardisation of trade processes, such as adopting the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law’s 2017 Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records for legal recognition of digital documents, could significantly increase exports, reduce processing times, promote transparency in supply chains and benefit the environment.
Paperless trade powers developing countries’ access to global supply chains | East Asia Forum
India – China
(Neely Haber – ASPI The Strategist) The Tibetan Plateau is the largest source of freshwater in the Indo-Pacific region, supporting a staggering 1.35 billion people, a fifth of the world’s population. Of the five major rivers flowing from the plateau, China has established a system of hydroelectric dams on the two largest: the Mekong River flowing through Southeast Asia, and the Brahmaputra River flowing through India and Bangladesh.
Iran
(Reza Parchizadeh – The Jamestown Foundation) Western media outlets have incorrectly portrayed Massoud Pezeshkian, who was elected as Iran’s new president on July 5, as a “moderate” and a “Reformist.” Though Pezeshkian’s background as an ethnic Azeri may strengthen efforts to try to calm rising ethnic tensions in Iran, he offers no meaningful domestic reforms, and Pezeshkian’s foreign policy views are in alignment with the reactionary/hardliner “Principalist” wing of Iranian politics. In the long run, the fact that Khamenei was forced to elevate Pezeshkian rather than a loyal non-partisan like the late Raisi will lead to increased internal conflict within the regime. Pezeshkian represents the latest Reformist president permitted by Supreme Leader Khamenei to take power in order to present a friendly face with the West and stave off the worst effects of domestic dissatisfaction with the regime.
(Ali Afshari – Stimson Center) Pezeshkian has called himself a “reformist Principalist” or “Principal reformist,” combining the two main wings in post-revolutionary Iranian politics.
Iran’s New President is A Compendium of Contradictions • Stimson Center
(Crisis Group) The Islamic Republic’s ninth president assumes office with an unenviable inheritance of domestic discontent, regional turmoil and poor relations with the West. He should work to bridge the state-society gap, while outside powers should test his administration’s willingness to shift from an escalatory posture.
Man on a Wire: A Way Forward for Iran’s New President | Crisis Group
Middle East
(Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Katherine Wells, Siddhant Kishore, Ria Reddy, Knox Greene, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) Iran: Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran is signaling that it will retaliate directly. One of the most dangerous courses of action would be Iran and the Axis of Resistance launching a large-scale, combined drone and missile attack into Israel – Lebanon: Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that Israel killed one of its seniormost commanders, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut. Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah will address the killing of Shukr during his funeral on August 1 – Iraq: The United States conducted a self-defense strike targeting Iranian backed militants in Iraq, who were preparing to launch a one-way attack drone. Iranian-backed militias have resumed their campaign to expel US forces from Iraq and Syria in recent days.
Iran Update, July 31, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Bilal Y. Saab – Chatham House) Events in the Middle East during July point to a striking paradox: Israel and the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance’ are inching closer to a catastrophic regional war – yet the war remains unlikely, because neither side wants it. Is that mutual apprehension enough to prevent the worst from happening? Even the most seasoned observer of the region can’t answer that question with confidence. But one thing everyone can agree on is that Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon does nothing to lower the temperature.
(Michael Young – Carnegie Middle East Center) On July 30–31, Israel carried out two attacks, one in Beirut’s southern suburbs targeting a senior Hezbollah official, Fouad Shukr, and another in Tehran against the head of Hamas’s Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh. While Shukr’s fate was unknown at the time of writing (Israel claims he lost his life in the apparent drone attack, but Hezbollah has not confirmed this), Iranian sources and Hamas announced that Haniyeh had been killed. The two operations come at a moment of escalating tensions in the region, following the killing of twelve children and teenagers in a rocket attack on July 27 in Majdel Shams, in the occupied Golan Heights. Israel accused Hezbollah of being responsible, while the party denied it was involved. The Israeli riposte against Hezbollah had been expected, but Haniyeh’s assassination came as a surprise—as much because it occurred in Tehran as because it greatly heightened the probability that the Gaza conflict might spread to the broader Middle East, despite claims by the Biden administration that it did not want to see this happen. Iran’s and Hezbollah’s promise that they would respond suggests the situation may be slipping out of control.
(Steven A. Cook – Council on Foreign Relations) The killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and targeted assassination of a Hezbollah military official in Beirut bring Israel and Iran, through its proxies, closer to war.
Are Israel and Iran Headed for All Out War? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Paul Salem, Nimrod Goren, Khaled Elgindy, Alex Vatanka, and Gerald M. Feierstein – Middle East Institute) In a new special briefing, scholars from across MEI weigh in with their thoughts on the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and the potential regional impact.
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) The strike in Tehran on July 31 that killed Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s most senior political leader, brings to four the number of Hamas’s top leaders eliminated since the October 7 atrocities in southern Israel. Prior to the killing of Haniyeh — who was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, alongside the leaders of other Iranian terror proxy groups — Israel had already eliminated Hamas’s deputy political chief, Saleh al-Arouri, deputy chief of military operations Marwan Issa, and the commander of Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif. Haniyeh’s death came just hours after Israel eliminated Fuad Shukr, also known as “Sayyid Muhsan,” in the southern suburbs of Beirut. Shukr was the most senior military commander of Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
After Eliminating Ismail Haniyeh, Israel’s Hunt for Hamas Leaders Continues (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democoracies) Iran’s leaders reacted with fury following a presumed Israeli missile strike on Tehran that eliminated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the early hours of July 31. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader, who met in person with Haniyeh the previous day – warned that Israel had “prepared a harsh punishment for itself.” Khamenei praised Haniyeh for having been “willing to sacrifice his honorable life in this dignified battle for many years,” underlining his outrage that the terrorist chieftain had been killed while he was “a dear guest in our home.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian — whose inauguration was attended by Haniyeh as well as other leaders of Iranian proxies around the region — faithfully echoed the supreme leader, noting: “Yesterday I raised [Haniyeh’s] victorious hand, and today I have to carry his coffin on my shoulders.” Separately, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani declared that Haniyeh’s death would only “strengthen the deep ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran and dear Palestine and Resistance.” The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also issued a statement threatening that “this crime committed by the Zionist regime will be met with a harsh and painful response from the powerful and vast resistance front, particularly from Islamic Iran.”
Iran Leads Chorus of Condemnation of Hamas Leader Haniyeh’s Killing (fdd.org)
(Foundation for Defense of Democracies) One of Hamas’ longest-serving and most influential leaders, Chairman of the Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh, was targeted and killed on Tuesday in Tehran while in town to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president. Hamas referred to Haniyeh as the “head of the movement,” the man who represented the Palestinian terrorist group as its public face in high-profile negotiations and gatherings around the world – including ongoing and stalled ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel.
Hamas chief political leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Tehran (fdd.org)
Niger – Libya
(Peter Tinti – Chatham House) Following the Libyan revolution in 2011, the number of migrants passing through Agadez, in Niger, en route to Europe, grew significantly, fuelling a migration boom in the city.
Tackling the Niger–Libya migration route | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(Alexandra Prokopenko – Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center) In Putin’s Russia, property rights have become casualties of war, with a precarious reliance on personal approval supplanting legal frameworks, foreshadowing potential chaos in a post-Putin era.
Russia – Abkhazia
(Giorgi Menabde – The Jamestown Foundation) Pro-Russian officials in Abkhazia are lobbying for the adoption of laws that will allow Russian citizens to buy real estate in the breakaway republic, where, in the 1990s, with the help of the Russian army, separatists carried out the ethnic cleansing of the Georgian population. Abkhaz society continues to resist the adoption of laws on apartments and “apart-hotels” and others related to the socioeconomic development of eastern Abkhazia, fearing that these measures will lead to the settlement of Abkhazia by Russians, not Abkhazians. Russia has demanded that Sukhumi drop restrictions on foreigners’ purchase of real estate in Abkhazia to ensure Moscow’s long-term interests in the region. However, due to the resistance of Abkhaz society, pro-Russian officials have been forced to postpone these decisions to avoid mass protests.
Russia Intends to Change Demographic Situation in Occupied Abkhazia – Jamestown
Russia – Africa
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) On July 27, the Wagner Group, the notorious Russian private military company (PMC), suffered substantial losses while stationed in Mali to combat terrorist threats in the region. Kyiv’s Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement linking Ukraine to the incident, demonstrating the country’s effectiveness in countering Russia’s military presence in Africa and elsewhere. Wagner’s defeat in Mali underscores the significant limitations of Russia’s PMCs in achieving sustained success in volatile regions like Sub-Saharan Africa due to Russia’s declining influence and increasing involvement of Ukrainian operatives.
Wagner Suffers Another Military Setback in Africa, This Time in Mali – Jamestown
Russia’s War in Ukraine
(Angelica Evans, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Davit Gasparyan, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Israel conducted an airstrike killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairperson Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran to derail attempts to establish peace in the Middle East. The Russian State Duma revised some aspects of a recent bill criminalizing Russian soldiers’ use of personal devices on the battlefield following outcry in the Russian ultranationalist community. Russian officials may be taking steps to address domestic security issues following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack and June 2024 shootings in the Republic of Dagestan. Ukrainian forces struck a weapons and equipment warehouse in Kursk City on the night of July 30 to 31. Russian border guards withdrew from Armenia’s main international airport. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Torestsk, and Donetsk City and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on July 31 increasing financial incentives for signing a Russian military service contract, likely to support ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
Scotland – Asia
(Tomasz Kaminski – East Asia Forum) As the global business epicentre shifts towards East Asia, European regions like Scotland are bolstering their economies by reaching out to Asia for enhanced trade relationships and foreign investment. Harnessing the principle of being a good global citizen is a crucial part of Scotland’s approach, which includes development cooperation and a commitment to feminist foreign policy. Scotland may also be attempting to secure international support and legitimacy for its independence ambitions.
Scotland shows what European regions want from Asia | East Asia Forum
Southeast Asia
(Michael Picard – East Asia Forum) Indonesian police seized weapons and ammunition from an alleged trafficking network, exposing a rare fusion of two illicit economies — arms and wildlife trafficking. There is a call for increased cross-regional cooperation and monitoring to tackle these criminal economies, as their convergence empowers criminal actors and exacerbates the impacts of armed violence and biodiversity loss.
Wildlife and weapons trafficking converge in Southeast Asia | East Asia Forum
Ukraine
(Josh Rudolph, Ayleen Cameron – German Marshall Fund of the United States) In 2023, GMF mapped out the new governing institutions and civil society coalitions that were mobilizing Ukraine for a transparent and accountable process of national restoration. In partnership with G7 allies, the restoration system was working well and was thus acquiring power in Kyiv. In response, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, in May 2024 ousted the system’s leaders and split the Restoration Ministry in two. He is expected to install his own loyalists to run the ministries soon.
Ukrainian Restoration Governance | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
USA
(Gary Clyde Hufbauer – Peterson Institute for International Economics) Former president Donald J. Trump is running to return to the White House with an ambitious economic agenda. He will need Republican control of the Senate and the House to carry out some but not all of his proposals, and if he avoids congressional approval and uses his power to issue executive orders (EOs) that arguably reach beyond the authority of existing statutes, as he did when he was president, he will surely be challenged in court. Three sources help preview Trump’s agenda for economic policy: Trump’s own statements; the 2024 Republican Party platform; and the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which was put together by some of his former advisers, although the Trump campaign has said the project does not necessarily reflect his views.
Trump’s economic agenda could disrupt US and world economies | PIIE
USA – China
(ThinkChina) Japanese academic Shin Kawashima notes that the US elections are still hard to predict, but if Trump returns to the presidency, US policy on China may take a tougher turn.
Security issues in East Asia after the US presidential election (thinkchina.sg)
(ThinkChina) US academic Wu Guo believes that the Trump-Vance rhetoric of blaming China for the woes of the American working class comes from the outdated mindset of the 1970s, and will do more harm than good to American society.
Grievances against Chinese manufacturing has no place in today’s America (thinkchina.sg)
USA – Russia
(Samuel Charap, Christian Curriden – RAND Corporation) The New START Treaty (NST) is the last remaining major bilateral strategic arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and suspension of treaty implementation in 2023, NST has essentially collapsed.
U.S. Options for Post–New START Arms Control with Russia | RAND
Vietnam – USA
(Nguyen Khac Giang – ThinkChina) With the potential for a second Trump administration, Vietnam will need to prepare for different scenarios.
