From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
ASEAN
(East Asia Forum) Facing increasing geopolitical competition and changes to the globalisation norms that fostered its growth, ASEAN’s relevance is coming under scrutiny. To protect its essential role in East Asia’s diplomatic and security architecture, ASEAN needs to take proactive measures in regional reconciliation and economic governance, particularly through initiatives in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, to demonstrate the value of ASEAN-based cooperation in creating an external environment that safeguards regional interests. – ASEAN’s centrality in East Asia will slip away without leadership from the top | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Australia – Taiwan Crisis
(Paul Dibb – ASPI The Strategist) Other than the Middle East, the world faces the possibility of two major wars escalating in Europe and East Asia, over Ukraine and Taiwan. Australia must worry about either of those wars, but ultimately it’s the possible loss of Taiwan to China that could be the front-and-centre issue for our national security. – As important as Ukraine is, a Taiwan war must be Australia’s biggest worry | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Australia – USA
(Michael Fullilove – Lowy The Interpreter) The interests of the world’s democracies — including Australia — are served when the United States is well governed, cohesive, appealing, and strong. During the Trump presidency, America was poorly governed, divided, ugly, and weak. There is no evidence that Donald Trump’s beliefs have altered over the past four years. Indeed, Trump 2.0 may be less restrained than Trump 1.0. – How Australia should deal with Trump | Lowy Institute
China – New Zealand
(Nicholas Khoo – Lowy The Interpreter) Last Wednesday, China launched an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a dummy warhead that landed in the exclusive economic zone of the South Pacific territory of French Polynesia. Beijing portrayed the missile launch as business as usual; the Chinese defence ministry reported that the launch was part of a “routine arrangement in our annual training plan” and the missile “fell into expected sea areas”. Washington put some positive spin on the test. The United States confirmed that it received “some advanced notification”, which was “a step in the right direction” that would help prevent “misperception or miscalculation”. – China’s missile tests New Zealand’s principles | Lowy Institute
India
(Sumit Mukherjee – East Asia Forum) The Indian government’s ‘Holistic Development of Great Nicobar Island’ project proposes building large-scale infrastructure and expanding tourism in an ecologically sensitive region. The project threatens the Indigenous Shompen and Nicobarese communities, who have lived on the island for millenia. It also risks damaging protected forests and disturbing a fragile ecosystem that includes rare species. While the project promises strategic and economic benefits for India, it raises serious ethical and environmental concerns about the potential destruction of one of the world’s most pristine regions and the infringement on the rights of Indigenous people. – Indigenous Nicobar Islanders face destruction as mega development advances | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Indonesia – Australia
(Gatra Priyandita, Fitriani – ASPI The Strategist) Prabowo Subianto, who will assume Indonesia’s presidency on 20 October, will be much more his own defence and foreign minister than was his predecessor, Joko Widodo (Jokowi). And he’s likely to rebalance policy in favour of national security over economic development. But the ministers who take those portfolios will also exercise great influence, and Prabowo’s choices for the position are key issues for Australia. – The outlook for Prabowo’s defence and foreign policy—and his choice of ministers | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Italy – China
(Giorgio Prodi – East Asia Forum) While Italy’s initial entry into the BRI was surprising, its exit was less so due to the limited economic benefits and the symbolic nature of the agreement. Despite a recent visit by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to China and a new three-year action plan, the future of Chinese–Italian relations is likely to be shaped more by broader geopolitical dynamics between the European Union, China and the United States than by bilateral agreements. – Italy’s soft reset with China after dropping the Belt and Road | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Middle East
(INSS) Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, executive director of INSS, leads a special discussion with INSS experts Sima Shine, Dr. Carmit Valensi, and Orna Mizrahi on the Shiite axis. The four discuss the implications of the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, which may signal a turning point in the war and a possible strategic shift in Israel’s security balance. They focus on the ramifications of this event for Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon, the identity of Nasrallah’s successor, and the broader regional impact, particularly on the two major strategic players—Iran and the United States. – Nasrallah’s Assassination: Special Discussion by INSS Experts | INSS
(Carmit Valensi – INSS) The assassination of Nasrallah is nothing short of an upheaval in the Middle East. This event has far-reaching strategic implications for Iran’s Axis of Resistance and beyond. – The Day After Nasrallah | INSS
(Hanin Ghaddar – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The killing by Israel of Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah constitutes a shattering moment for the group that could alter the Lebanese political landscape as well as dynamics across the region. Nasrallah’s death came at the end of a brutal week for Hezbollah, which has now lost most of its military leadership along with its communication system and an array of weapons depots and other facilities. All this was made possible by Israel’s intelligence infiltration of the group’s leadership and military infrastructure. For multiple reasons, including Hezbollah’s massive growth, succession dynamics will today be more complicated than they were three decades ago when Nasrallah’s predecessor, Abbas Musawi, was killed. – What Nasrallah’s Death Could Mean for the Hezbollah Network | The Washington Institute
(Bruce Hoffman – Council on Foreign Relations) Hezbollah leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah possessed a rare set of abilities that made the group a formidable foe to Israel and a power broker in Lebanon. His killing by Israel sharply weakens the threat posed by the group and its patron, Iran. – The Nasrallah Killing Is a Crushing Blow to Hezbollah | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(Jonathan Panikoff – Atlantic Council) In February 1992, Israel killed the then-Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Abbas al-Musawi, who had led the group for less than a year before his death. Musawi was replaced by Hassan Nasrallah, a religious and political protégé of Musawi’s. In contrast to his mentor’s rather short tenure, Nasrallah has been at the helm of the terrorist organization for more than thirty-two years before his death on Friday. So ingrained was his leadership of the group that Hezbollah today is very much an organization designed to operate as a direct extension of Nasrallah himself. – After Nasrallah, three quandaries shape the future of the war—and the Middle East – Atlantic Council
(Atlantic Council) His end may be just the beginning. On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli air strike on Friday in the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, the site of the group’s headquarters. Nasrallah had run Hezbollah for more than thirty years, orchestrating and inspiring its campaign against Israel. His death is an enormous blow to Hezbollah, and it follows two weeks of ramped-up Israeli air strikes and covert operations against both leadership and rank-and-file of the Iran-backed group. Where does the beleaguered terrorist group go from here? Will Iran launch its own retribution against Israel? – Experts react: Hassan Nasrallah is dead. What’s next for Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran? – Atlantic Council
Pacific
(Blake Johnson, Adam Ziogas – ASPI The Strategist) It’s time for the Pacific to talk about ground rules in the security sector. The Pacific Response Group (PRG) is expected to be endorsed at this week’s South Pacific Defence Ministers’ Meeting in New Zealand. For this group, and the recently announced Pacific Policing Initiative (PPI), to succeed, participants must agree on ground rules concerning the training received and the type of equipment used by participating nations. – Pacific initiatives need transparency and ground rules to reduce harmful competition | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Sri Lanka
(Devaka Gunawardena, Ahilan Kadirgamar – East Asia Forum) Anura Kumara Dissanayake won Sri Lanka’s presidential election on 21 September 2024, marking a historic shift in the country’s politics. He is the first candidate outside the two main elite parties to gain power post-independence. His victory comes amid widespread disillusionment with the previous government and a severe economic crisis, raising questions about his ability to implement necessary reforms while navigating domestic constituencies and international pressure. – A political and policy tightrope awaits Sri Lanka’s new president | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
Ukraine – USA
(Jonathan Masters, Will Merrow – Council on Foreign Relations) Nine charts illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine in its war against Russian invaders. – How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine? | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
(John E. Herbst – Atlantic Council) It has been quite a week for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He arrived in New York on Sunday to address the United Nations General Assembly and meet with world leaders. But his real agenda was to meet with US President Joe Biden and presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. From Biden, he wanted permission to use US Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS)—accurate missiles with a range of three hundred kilometers—on military targets in Russia. With Trump and Harris, Zelenskyy wanted to renew and strengthen his relationship before the US presidential election that will make one of them president in four months. – The storm clouds may be parting after Zelenskyy’s tumultuous US visit – Atlantic Council
USA
(Jenny Gordon – Lowy The Interpreter) Judging by the lack of major policy announcements from the Harris campaign, her administration is likely to largely maintain the Biden trajectory. – Kamala Harris and trade: Better than the alternative, but not much | Lowy Institute
USA – China – Russia
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) Two dark clouds hung over the United Nations General Assembly this week in New York. The first was the growing peril of Chinese-Russian common cause. The second was uncertainty about whether US leadership will rise to the challenge after the November elections. – The US confronts two global threats: China-Russia and itself – Atlantic Council
