From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Cambodia; Gaza; Georgia-South Caucasus; Greenland; Indo-Pacific; Nigeria; Philippines; Russia; Russia-Ukraine-North Caucasus; Sahel; South Sudan; Syria; Türkiye; United Nations; US
Cambodia
(Chansambath Bong – East Asia Forum) Cambodia’s turbulent 2025 exposed the pressures of political succession, external shocks and unresolved governance weaknesses. Hun Manet’s government faces the challenge of consolidating authority while managing the border conflict with Thailand, economic disruption from US tariffs and a growing cyberscam crisis. These overlapping stresses are forcing Phnom Penh to rethink defence preparedness, information strategy and foreign policy alignment. – Cambodia looks ahead after a turbulent 2025 | East Asia Forum
Gaza
(Middle East Institute) MEI Senior Fellow Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen joins hosts Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj to discuss the latest developments in Gaza. Nearly four months after the Israeli government and Hamas agreed to President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, Washington has announced that phase two of the process is now underway. Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, Taylor, and Czekaj examine the humanitarian situation in the devastated coastal strip, assess what phase two could entail, break down how international actors are responding, and explore what would need to happen to realize the plan’s aspirations. – Ambiguous Uncertainties: Phase Two of Trump’s Plan for Gaza – Middle East Institute
Georgia – South Caucasus
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) On January 20, speaking at the World Economic Forum, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that cargo flows between Azerbaijan and Armenia could soon take a direct route that bypasses Georgia, intensifying regional transit realignments that threaten Georgia’s traditional transit role amid Armenia and Azerbaijan’s diplomatic progress. In December 2025, a dispute over Georgian tariffs on Azerbaijani oil traveling through Georgia to Armenia exposed growing tensions, weakening the Georgia–Azerbaijan partnership and fueling fears that Georgia may be marginalized in the evolving Middle Corridor transit system. While neighbors advance new connectivity projects, Georgia risks losing leverage by exclusion from key forums and tentative involvement in Russia-linked transit initiatives through its occupied territories, undermining Georgian sovereignty, credibility, and its long-term role in South Caucasian logistics. – Georgia Risks Diminished Position in South Caucasus’s Connectivity – Jamestown
Greenland
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) One issue dominated this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos: President Donald Trump’s threats to gain U.S. control of Greenland. The announcement of a skeletal agreement between President Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte was good news – even if it turns out to be a fig leaf for a failed land grab – because the brouhaha over Trump’s rhetoric was obscuring what is a genuinely serious geostrategic concern. Without a robust U.S. presence on the island, Trump argues, China and Russia will come to exploit its vulnerability. Arctic security and ballistic missile defense would both be undermined. – Why Greenland Matters | Council on Foreign Relations
Indo-Pacific
(Roberto Rabel – East Asia Forum) Defining the Indo-Pacific remains a highly complex and contested issue. Major democracies, driven largely by geostrategic considerations, have promoted the term as a replacement for the Asia Pacific, yet there is still no consensus on its boundaries. Each country interprets the region according to its own strategic priorities, creating inconsistencies that undermine the concept’s effectiveness. These discrepancies hinder efforts to advance democratic objectives, especially since many goals could be more effectively achieved by building on the already widely accepted and more inclusive Asia Pacific framework. – The Indo-Pacific’s defining dilemma for democracies | East Asia Forum
Nigeria
(UN News) When the United States ordered airstrikes on Christmas Day against Islamist militants in northern Nigeria, officials in Washington said the action was aimed at protecting Christians facing threats of violence. The strikes thrust Nigeria’s long-running sectarian bloodshed into the global spotlight – and revived claims that a “Christian genocide” is unfolding in Africa’s most populous country. But in an interview, the UN’s top humanitarian official in the country has told UN News that the current crisis extends far beyond any single community or conflict. Violence, he cautioned, has spread across much of the country, leaving millions displaced and fuelling what aid agencies describe as one of Africa’s largest – and most overlooked – humanitarian emergencies. “Security remains one of Nigeria’s major challenges,” said Mohamed Malik Fall, the UN resident and humanitarian coordinator. “You can no longer associate it with a single region. It is almost everywhere.” –Violence roiling Nigeria extends beyond religious lines, amid a deepening humanitarian crisis | UN News
Philippines
(Jesus Felipe – East Asia Forum) In 2025, the Philippines missed its 5.5–6.5 per cent growth target, with confidence in the economy diminishing after US reciprocal import tariffs were announced in April 2025. This confidence drop was further exacerbated by corruption scandals later in the year, inducing weakened consumer and investor sentiment. Beyond these shocks, underlying issues linked to productivity growth, labour force growth and the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate constrain growth below 6 per cent. Creating higher and sustained growth will require policy reform that fosters economic transformation out of low-productivity sectors. – Tariffs and scandals tested Philippine growth in 2025 | East Asia Forum
Russia
(Alex Horobets – The Jamestown Foundation) The October 2025 disbandment of Española—the Russian private military company (PMC)—and the killing of Stanislav Orlov, its leader, by Russian security forces during his attempted arrest in December 2025 are a part of Moscow’s effort to dismantle semi-autonomous paramilitary groups with independent ideological identities. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” units remain the last significant enclave of relative autonomy. Amid reports of the Chechen leader’s ill health, however, the Kremlin appears to be pursuing a bureaucratic takeover, gradually weakening Kadyrov’s personal control over his security forces. The Kremlin reevaluated the threat posed by armed structures built around charismatic leaders with independent agendas following Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion in June 2023. The era of PMCs and semi-autonomous volunteer battalions in Russia is ending, replaced by structures that operate exclusively under Moscow’s direct control to safeguard the state’s monopoly on force. – Kremlin Continues to Eliminate PMCs and Semi-Autonomous Volunteer Units – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine – North Caucasus
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Programs giving land to North Caucasian veterans of Russia’s war against Ukraine in the North Caucasus are exacerbating ethnic tensions in those land-short republics, especially in cases where those who are not given land are a different nationality than those receiving it. These programs are especially fraught because many returning veterans have weapons and military training, a reason why Moscow stopped the draft in the North Caucasus after 1991 and later, for many years, took a smaller percentage of men from there than elsewhere. Moscow will certainly end these programs if they cause violence in the North Caucasus. The Kremlin would dispatch more forces there in response to increased conflict, which could become political, another way that the end of Putin’s war against Ukraine could lead to less stability in the Russian Federation. – Giving North Caucasus Veterans Land in Homelands Could Trigger Conflict – Jamestown
Sahel
(Chris Mensa-Ankrah – The Jamestown Foundation) On January 13, Nigerien authorities revoked the operating licenses of dozens of fuel transporters and tanker drivers who refused to continue deliveries into Mali amid escalating jihadist attacks along the Niger–Mali corridor. The ongoing conflict in the Sahel is not only driven by material factors such as poverty, political instability, and military presence, but also by overlapping “chosen traumas” of past humiliations, which are reactivated by modern-day crises, thereby narrowing the political space and fueling violence. Counterterrorism measures that focus on force—whether they are of Western or Russian-backed origin—often fail, as they reactivate these traumas, which in turn makes jihadist narratives and recruitment stronger. To put an end to the cycle of violence going back to the past requires the statecraft approach to be aware of the trauma: localized reconciliation, restraint in security operations, and political processes that recognize historical memory rather than try to suppress it. – Sahel’s Eternal Yesterday: Chosen Traumas Sustain Jihadist Violence – Jamestown
South Sudan
(UN News) The world’s youngest country, South Sudan, is facing continued instability and violence as military escalation looms, following reports earlier this week that a senior army commander had called on troops to inflict indiscriminate violence against civilians in Jonglei state. The tensions are concentrated in South Sudan’s Jonglei State, where many deaths and injuries have been reported in response to renewed fighting between opposition militia and army forces, leading to the displacement of 180,000 people. According to news reports, the army launched a major offensive in Jonglei against opposition forces, ordering civilian evacuations on Sunday and telling aid agencies to leave areas where military operations are ongoing. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement released on Thursday by his Spokesperson that he is “deeply concerned regarding the impact of the escalating violence”, adding that it “will further harm civilian populations who are already in a vulnerable situation”. – UN chief ‘deeply concerned’ by escalation of violence in South Sudan | UN News
Syria
(Charles Lister – Middle East Institute) After 10 months of US-mediated talks failed to achieve an integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into Syria’s transitional state, hostilities erupted in early January — first in Kurdish districts of Aleppo City from January 6 to 10 and then spreading east across the Euphrates River on January 17. In the space of 24 hours over January 17-18, the SDF lost approximately 80% of its territory, as the 65-70% of its fighting force composed of Arab fighters defected and turned to the government in Damascus. This was a catastrophic development for Washington’s long-time partner in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), but it was also one that could have been avoided had integration talks been proactively implemented. – Integration or conflict in northeastern Syria? Ten key points to consider – Middle East Institute
Türkiye
(The Soufan Center) Türkiye, long considered by several major Arab leaders as a peripheral or even adverse actor, has parlayed its involvement in the toppling of the Assad regime in Syria into a central role in the region’s geopolitics. If finalized, a trilateral security pact between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan — which some characterize as the core of an “Islamic NATO” — would cement Türkiye as an indispensable strategic actor in the region. The ongoing offensive by Syrian forces against U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters has delivered Ankara its long-sought buffer zone along its border with Syria. After gaining Trump’s trust, Turkish leaders have become key players in the Trump team’s efforts to implement a permanent settlement of the Gaza conflict. – Türkiye Emerges as a Key Regional Anchor – The Soufan Center
United Nations
(UN News) With global tensions rising and “reckless actions” triggering dangerous consequences, UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday called for renewed efforts on peace, justice and sustainable development as he outlined his priorities for 2026 – the final year of his tenure. 2026 “is already shaping up to be a year of constant surprises and chaos,” he told journalists in New York. Mr. Guterres – who trained as a physicist before entering public life – said that during times of profound flux, he returns to fixed principles that explain how forces act. – Choose peace over chaos, Guterres urges as he sets out final-year priorities | UN News
US
(Shannon K. O’Neil – Council on Foreign Relations) AI is driving the S&P 500 index and the broader US economy forward. The CEOs of a handful of few dominant firms have become celebrities, with groupies and markets alike hanging on their words and earnings reports. The line between hype and reality has blurred. But what may burst the AI bubble are not the flagged worries over circular financing, growing debt or Chinese competition. Instead, the unanticipated drag of tariffs and fall in the number of migrants in the US may be what brings these AI champions back down to earth. President Trump has promised to do “whatever it takes” to lead the world in AI, mobilizing the federal government and pulling its industrial policy levers. His administration is opening up federal lands for data centers and power plants and fast-tracking permitting and environmental reviews. It has taken equity stakes in the chip giant Intel Corp. and the start-up lithography equipment maker x-Light Inc., as well as in critical minerals firms for the raw materials that go into the electronics at the heart of the sector. It is taking on state-level AI regulations and laws, using executive authority to clear away regulations and oversight. And his administration has exempted servers, semiconductors, circuit boards and many of the other electronics that make up roughly a third of data center costs from tariffs (though they still pay the levies on imported building materials). – The AI Bubble Is Getting Closer to Popping | Council on Foreign Relations
