Complex research (by Marco Emanuele):
Ordine in progress / Order in progress | The Global Eye
Evoluzione, involuzione, progresso / Evolution, involution, progress | The Global Eye
L’orologio della storia va avanti / The clock of history marches on | The Global Eye
Pensiero complesso, nel dubbio / Complex thinking, in doubt | The Global Eye
Laboratori di pensiero complesso / Complex thinking laboratories | The Global Eye
La (vera) politica è umano-planetaria / (True) politics is human-planetary | The Global Eye
I futuri che ci aspettano / The futures that await us | The Global Eye
Tempi duri per il pensiero / Hard times for thinking | The Global Eye
Distinzioni fondamentali / Fundamental distinctions | The Global Eye
L’assoluto della sicurezza lineare / Absolute linear security | The Global Eye
Disumanità / Inhumanity | The Global Eye
From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Afghanistan; Artificial Intelligence & Cybersecurity; Europe; Europe-Iran; Israel-West Bank; Nigeria; Russia-NATO; Supply Chains; Transnational Repression; UK; Ukraine; Ukraine-Russia; US-Venezuela
Afghanistan
(Hameed Hakimi – Chatham House) Four years after returning to power in Afghanistan, the Taliban regime marked the occasion as ‘Victory Day’ earlier this month. In the absence of any meaningful and sustained opposition, domestic or otherwise, the Taliban regime has consolidated its power in the years since 2021. Despite horrendous restrictions on women and girls, including a ban on female education beyond grade six, the Taliban regime’s power is buoyed by a combination of pragmatic, tacit and genuine endorsement at the regional level. – Push to deport failed Afghan asylum seekers from Europe could benefit the Taliban | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Artificial Intelligence & Cybersecurity
(Chad Heitzenrater – RAND Corporation) An ongoing debate in the study of cyber warfare is the relative balance between the attacker and the defender in cyberspace. In this paper, the author advances the hypothesis that, with the right investments in people, process, and technology, proliferated and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) could ultimately advantage cyber defense. He explores how advanced AI is likely to fundamentally reshape the economics of cybersecurity and examines what it will take to realize the promise of a defense-dominant cyber environment. He further hypothesizes that advanced and proliferated AI will disrupt the economics of cyber in a profound way that advantages the defender—but only if action is taken to do so. – The Winning Economics of Cybersecurity in an Age of Advanced Artificial Intelligence | RAND
(Virpratap Vikram Singh – IISS) India, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom are pursuing distinct sovereign AI strategies that serve their national priorities while granting strategic autonomy as competition over AI development intensifies. – Sovereign AI: pathways to strategic autonomy
Europe
(Edward Beales, Camilla Frank – IISS) In June 2025, the European Commission selected 13 strategic projects aimed at securing supplies of strategic raw materials, some of which are vital to a wide range of defence applications. These projects involve countries and territories outside of the EU, unlike an initial 47 strategic projects that were announced in March 2025. While only a handful of the 60 strategic projects explicitly target the defence sector, those focused on other sectors might still yield benefits for defence supply chains. This proves consistent with other EU initiatives, like the partnerships that fall under its Raw Materials Diplomacy, which primarily focus on the green and digital sectors. However, a refocusing of efforts could be possible in line with recent policies aimed at strengthening the EU’s defence capabilities, such as the ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030. – Securing critical raw materials for European defence
Europe – Iran
(John Calabrese – Middle East Institute) The coming weeks may prove decisive in Europe’s long struggle to manage Iran’s nuclear ambitions. On Aug. 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (the “E3”) announced they will trigger the “snapback” mechanism under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2231, formally initiating a 30-day process that is likely to culminate in the full restoration of all UN sanctions lifted under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The decision, immediately endorsed by the United States, marks a sharp escalation in Europe’s effort to constrain Tehran, while signaling a desire to keep Washington closely aligned and to reduce the risk of another cycle of conflict. – Europe’s snapback gamble on Iran | Middle East Institute
Israel – West Bank
(Emirates Policy Center) The current Israeli government is actively advancing efforts to annex the West Bank through legislative measures, expanded settlement construction, land seizures, home demolitions and the displacement of Palestinian communities.
Despite these efforts, Israel cannot move forward with formal annexation of the West Bank without approval of the US administration. To date, Washington has not issued an official endorsement, signaling reluctance to support such a move at this stage. The Netanyahu government plans to counter the growing international support for Palestinian statehood – expected to intensify in September – by stepping up settlement activity in the E1 area near Jerusalem. This move aims to physically separate the northern and southern parts of the West Bank and to reconstruct settlements that were dismantled as part of the 2005 withdrawal plan in the northern West Bank. Netanyahu is expected to grant the Religious Zionism bloc – which represents the pro-settlement right – broad latitude to pursue its agenda in the West Bank. However, he is unlikely to formally declare the annexation or back legislation enforcing Israeli sovereignty over territory, given the potential diplomatic fallout and its impact on Israel’s global and regional standing. – Emirates Policy Center | Will Israel Speed Up the Annexation of the West Bank in Response to Growing International Recognition of the Palestinian State?
Nigeria
(Leena Koni Hoffmann, Tommy Hilton – Chatham House) Nigeria suffers from endemic corruption. Despite 25 years of attempts at reforms, corruption remains embedded in the country’s institutions and continues to undermine its democracy and economic growth. Corrupt practices are deeply entrenched across various levels of Nigeria’s government and society. Corruption permeates politics, public administration, law enforcement and the judiciary, often undermining the delivery of basic services. While most Nigerians disapprove of corruption, many tolerate or even engage in corrupt practices as they see it as the only way of surviving in a dysfunctional system. – Corruption in Nigeria | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia – NATO
(Joe Morley-Davies – RUSI) At the beginning of 2025, I wrote about the Kremlin’s growing grey zone aggression across Europe and the growing likelihood that the Kremlin’s leaders would ‘test’ NATO’s commitment to collective defence. Since that article was published, the Kremlin appears to have grown more brazen as concerns continue to be raised about the Trump administration’s commitment to their allies; although Trump’s August meeting with Zelensky was a great improvement from February’s, his statements and track record imply an interest in an announcement of peace that could leave Ukraine vulnerable rather than committing to a long-term peace process combined with pressure on the Kremlin. Moreover, even if fighting were to cease in Ukraine, the Kremlin’s grey zone aggression would not end with it. Indeed, it is likely to increase to destabilise the West and give the Kremlin an asymmetric advantage. These rapid developments make the discussion of deterring grey zone aggression critical; the Kremlin’s success in the grey zone is emboldening it to escalate its actions, contributing to a sense of impunity that increases the likelihood of kinetic action against more vulnerable NATO states in the Baltics. – Deterring Kremlin Grey Zone Aggression Against NATO | Royal United Services Institute
Supply Chains
(The Soufan Center) Supply chains are being reconfigured globally as the imperatives of strategic autonomy and national security increasingly take precedence over cost efficiency. Against a backdrop of political instability, new strategies have been deployed to mitigate dependencies seen as dangerous, including by friend-shoring and coercively maintaining a monopoly on access to critical resources. As decisions around production and trade have become increasingly securitized, supply chains are now actively used as tools of geopolitical coercion. Non-state actors have further complicated the reliance on globalized supply chains, as the Red Sea Crisis aptly demonstrates the significant global economic impact that such actors can have. – Weaponized Interdependence: Supply Chains Reconfigure Globally – The Soufan Center
Transnational Repression
(Niki Siampakou – International Centre for Counter-Terrorism) Transnational repression is no longer a hidden threat but a growing global challenge where authoritarian regimes reach beyond borders to silence critics through intimidation, violence, and digital espionage. This policy brief uncovers how these tactics undermine national security, erode the rule of law, and deepen divisions within host countries, especially those with vibrant diaspora communities. Often disguised as counter-terrorism, transnational repression exploits legal gaps and political polarisation, complicating efforts to counter it. In today’s complex geopolitical climate, urgent, coordinated action is needed. This brief offers targeted policy recommendations to strengthen national and international capacities to address this escalating threat. – The Use of Transnational Repression in the Name of Security: Implications and Concerns | International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – ICCT
UK
(Michael Jones – RUSI) Analysis from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) offers the first ‘formal’ glimpse into the implications of UK aid cuts announced back in February. The drop from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP by 2027 immediately proved controversial across government circles, eliciting the resignation of International Development Minister Anneliese Dodds and raising fears Whitehall would not sustain spending levels in hotspots such as Gaza, Sudan and Ukraine. Others warned of a ‘strategic mistake’, casting the £6 billion reduction as ‘dangerously counter-productive’ and damaging to Britain’s ‘standing’ and domestic security. The latest picture – however preliminary – appears bleak, substantiating concerns from various charities that UK austerity will ‘come at the expense of some of the world’s most vulnerable people’. Coalescing with a $40 billion slump in global Official Development Assistance (ODA), ranging from emergency relief to longer-term social and economic welfare, these insights speak to urgent questions around the role of the UK – and likeminded partners – in a steadily deteriorating aid space, and the problems this raises for humanitarian, development and security outcomes. – Parsimony and Platitudes: The UK’s Approach to a ‘Post-Aid World’ | Royal United Services Institute
(Sidharth Kaushal – RUSI) The prominence of long-range strike capabilities in recent conflicts, most notably in Ukraine, has driven a newfound interest in integrated air and missile defence (IAMD) for the UK. Until recently, this was an area that had received limited interest, given that much British military planning had an expeditionary focus and there were limited threats to the homeland. The size of Russia’s arsenal of long-range strike capabilities – and the demonstrated Russian ability to employ conventional precision strike in both a counterforce and a countervalue role – makes discussions on the risk to the UK germane. The threat spectrum will evolve to become multi-vector, encompassing a combination of air-breathing, ballistic and hypersonic threats. However, any effort to buttress the air and missile defence system protecting the UK homeland will take place at a time when multiple parts of the Joint Force will require recapitalisation of both platforms and stockpiles, after decades of downsizing. It is therefore vital that an IAMD system be developed in a way that does not render it an opportunity cost to the UK’s ability to project power. Instead, it must add to the UK’s credibility. The paper seeks to describe how an IAMD capability to achieve this might be developed in the coming decades. – An Integrated Air and Missile Defence Architecture for the UK | Royal United Services Institute
(Carla Baker, Daniel Cuthbert, Dr Joe Devanny, Jen Ellis, Conrad Prince CB and Nikita Shah – RUSI) At this year’s CyberUK conference, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster announced that the UK government would publish a new National Cyber Strategy before the end of 2025. As part of an ongoing research project on UK cyber strategy, the RUSI Cyber and Tech research group brought together six experts from industry and civil society to offer their perspectives on the key issues and interventions the UK government should consider. – Perspectives on the Next UK National Cyber Strategy | Royal United Services Institute
Ukraine
(Oksana Ihnatenko and Greta Barkauskienė – RUSI) On 8 July 2025, RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security and the Center for Financial Integrity convened the latest meeting of the Taskforce on Public–Private Partnership in Fighting Financial Crime in Ukraine. Fifty representatives, including those from the public and private sectors in Ukraine, and international experts, gathered for an in-person meeting in Warsaw. The discussion focused on virtual assets in Ukraine. It included assessments of the related regulatory framework, risks and illicit activities, and international experience. Participants explored several recommendations to support the regulation and development of a safe virtual asset market in Ukraine. This report summarises the main findings of the meeting. – Public–Private Partnerships and Virtual Assets in Ukraine: Taskforce Report | Royal United Services Institute
Ukraine – Russia
(Atlantic Council) Ukraine is still standing, more than eleven years after Russia seized Crimea and parts of the Donbas region, and more than three years after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion. But what Ukraine will look like in the future remains the subject of intense negotiations—and continued bloodshed. – Twenty questions (and expert answers) about the negotiations to end Russia’s war in Ukraine – Atlantic Council
US – Venezuela
(Atlantic Council) Set a course for the Caribbean. The United States has deployed three Aegis guided-missile destroyers and several other warships to the waters near Venezuela to counter maritime narcotics trafficking. US President Donald Trump has made curbing drug flows into the United States an administration priority. At the same time, the sizable US flotilla, which carries more than four thousand US sailors and Marines, has raised speculation about the threat it poses to Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. – Why are US warships heading toward Venezuela? – Atlantic Council
