From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(Brookings) The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) aims to create one market across the 55 countries of the African Union, promising free movement of goods, services, investment, people, and cooperation. Landry Signé speaks with Francis Mangeni and Andrew Mold, both experts on African trade and regional integration, about the status of African integration under AfCFTA and how to catalyze its continued implementation. – The promise of free trade and integration across Africa’s nations (brookings.edu)
African Union – European Union
(Rossella Marangio, Frank Mattheis – European Union Institute for Security Studies) The relationship between the African Union (AU) and the European Union (EU) has hit some rough patches in recent years. Key events like the AU-EU Summit and ministerial meetings have been delayed or concluded without consensus. These strains reflect broader, unresolved tensions rather than isolated disagreements. Divergences over the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of Gaza highlight these tensions. Internal crises and the growing availability of alternative partners further complicate cooperation between the two organisations. – « Je t’aime, moi non plus » | European Union Institute for Security Studies (europa.eu)
Australia
(Keirin Joyce – ASPI The Strategist) The Australian Defence Force is on the brink of a transformative shift in its airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities with the imminent introduction into service of the MQ-4C Triton, an unarmed, high-altitude and long-endurance uncrewed aerial system (UAS). Use of the Triton will bring far more capability than is generally appreciated, even by close observers of defence policy. – Triton: transforming Australia’s Airborne ISR capabilities | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Australia needs a policy for delivering the minimum manufacturing capacity that would ensure national resilience, security and economic prosperity. Unfortunately, Australia’s domestic manufacturing capacity is generally declining, except in the defence industry and, in time, maybe renewable energy transition. At the heart of our manufacturing woes are increasing competition from low-cost overseas producers, unfair trade practices, disrupted supply chains and a lack of sustained investment in advanced technologies. – Securing Australia’s supply chains through targeted investments in manufacturing | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Belarus – Lithuania
(Yauheni Preiherman – The Jamestown Foundation) Belarusian Foreign Affairs Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov published an op-ed outlining Minsk’s assessment of the current and prospective bilateral relations between Belarus and Lithuania, signaling a desire from Minsk to further engage with Vilnius in the future. In Vilnius, Ryzhenkov’s suggestions were received coldly, as the government asserts that it does not trust the Lukashenka regime. Lithuanian officials have remained firm in their stance that Minsk must prove it remains independent of Moscow before any prospect of renewing bilateral dialogue can be discussed. Ryzhenkov’s intended audience was likely the future Lithuanian government. If the incumbent center-right coalition government does not win the upcoming parliamentary elections, a small window of opportunity to de-escalate tensions between Minsk and Vilnius might surface. – Belarus Offers Reset of Bilateral Relations to Lithuania – Jamestown
China
(Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Kieran Green, William Marcellino, Sale Lilly, Jackson Smith – RAND Corporation) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was initially concerned about the rise of social media, considering it a threat to the regime. The CCP has since come to embrace social media as a way to influence domestic and foreign public opinion in the CCP’s favor. Even as Beijing blocks foreign social media platforms, such as Facebook and Twitter (now X), from operating in China, it actively seeks to leverage these and other platforms for both overt propaganda and covert cyber-enabled influence operations abroad. While the results have been limited so far, the advent of generative artificial intelligence (AI) could dramatically improve China’s capabilities moving forward, posing a greater threat to global democracies. – Dr. Li Bicheng, or How China Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Social Media Manipulation: Insights Into Chinese Use of Generative AI and Social Bots from the Career of a PLA Researcher | RAND
China – European Union
(Noah Barkin – German Marshall Fund of the United States) On October 4, if all goes according to plan, EU member states will vote to impose additional duties of up to 35% on imports of electric vehicles (EVs) from China. To those who have not been paying close attention, the move may look anything but groundbreaking. After all, the United States announced back in May that it was introducing tariffs of 100% on Chinese EVs, a move that was matched by Canada three months later. But make no mistake, the vote on Friday is significant. If it does result in the introduction of duties, it will be a major inflection point in European policy toward China—the meat on the bones, if you will, of the EU’s strategic outlook document of 2019 that labeled China a competitor and systemic rival. – Watching China in Europe—October 2024 | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
European Union – South Caucasus
(Tinatin Akhvlediani – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has catalyzed a major shift in both the geopolitics and the economic profile of the South Caucasus. This shift is transforming relations between the three countries of the region and the EU. – The EU and the South Caucasus: Geoeconomics at Play – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Geostrategies
(Farsan Ghassim, Markus Pauli – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Global opinon is moving steadily toward a consensus on global government. New data from across 17 countries—representing more than half of the world population—supports the creation of a democratic global government body to tackle pressing global challenges like climate change. – Citizens Worldwide (Including Australia) Support a Democratic World Government Focused on Global Issues – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Human Security, Climate Action, Energy Transition, and Sustainable Development
(Sarah George – World Resources Institute) At the Clean Energy Ministerial in Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, World Resources Institute (WRI) and Sustainable Energy for All (SEforAll) announced a strategic partnership to accelerate the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 7: access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. The partnership aims to support global efforts to reach the 760 million people worldwide who currently lack access to electricity and the 2 billion people using polluting fuels for cooking. Access to clean, affordable and reliable power is essential for human health, education and economic prosperity. – New Partnership Between Sustainable Energy for All and WRI Seeks to Accelerate Energy Access and the Energy Transition | World Resources Institute
(World Resources Institute) Today, the European Commission proposed delaying the enforcement of its landmark EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by twelve months, pushing the deadline to December 30, 2025. The law seeks to ban the import of seven commodities—coffee, cocoa, soy, beef, palm oil, rubber and wood—along with certain derived products linked to deforestation or forest degradation from entering or being traded in the European market. – STATEMENT: The EU Deforestation Regulation Should Not be Delayed | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Beth Parkin, Sophie Attwood, Mindy Hernandez – World Resources Institute) This working paper provides the first analysis exploring how countries are considering behavior change within their NDCs. We first outline nine of the most impactful behavior changes, or “Priority Practices,” based on the research literature. These are behavior changes with the greatest potential to decrease GHG emissions within the food, mobility, and energy sectors. Next, we evaluate how countries’ NDCs outline concrete actions to shift these behaviors. – Sustainable Behavior in Climate Pledges: An Analysis of Top Emitters’ Strategies | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Mindy Hernandez, Sophie Attwood, Alex Simpkins – World Resources Institute) The fight against climate change may be missing a critical strategy: incorporating strategic policies that encourage people to integrate climate-friendly activities, like eating a plant-based diet or lessening reliance on gas-fueled cars, into their daily lives. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), adopting comprehensive behavior changes could cut climate-harming greenhouse gas emissions by 40% to 70% by 2050 compared to current national policies. Making sustainable living easy and affordable is essential for driving these reductions and securing our planet’s future. – How Countries Can Use Behavior Change to Further Reduce Emissions | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
India
(Bibek Debroy, Aditya Sinha – Observer Research Foundation)The United States (US)-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally altered global trade patterns, revealing critical supply chain vulnerabilities. US tariffs pushed companies to shift manufacturing to more favourable locations, accelerating “friendshoring” to countries like India and Vietnam. The “China plus one” strategy has bolstered domestic manufacturing and attracted foreign investment through Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes. Additionally, India’s pursuit of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) with developed economies, such as Australia and the UAE, has made Indian exports competitive and provided Indian goods access to markets largely flooded with Chinese commodities. The ongoing FTA negotiations with EU and other countries will strengthen India’s position in global trade by opening up new markets, enhancing regulatory harmonisation, and providing Indian exporters preferential access to high-demand regions. These agreements can diversify India’s trade portfolio, reduce dependency on China, and solidify India’s role as a key player in global supply chains. – India’s Economic Realignment (orfonline.org)
India – Pakistan
(Ambika Vishwanath, Ruth Gamble – Lowy The Interpreter) On 30 August, India asked Pakistan to modify the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), a long-standing agreement that allocates the waters of the Indus Basin equally between these two often hostile neighbours. It was the fourth such request since January 2023. The IWT is regarded as one of the world’s most successful transboundary river-sharing agreements. It includes a strong dispute-resolution framework that has endured multiple wars and crises. But both sides have expressed frustration with the treaty in the past few years. India’s recent requests are the most significant challenge to the IWT since its inception in 1960. – Parting the waters: India v Pakistan | Lowy Institute
Indonesia – Nigeria
(Ridvan Kilic – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Indonesia looks to forge stronger bonds with other countries in the Global South, an effort exemplified in its growing bilateral ties with Nigeria. Under President-elect Prabowo Subianto, Indonesia is seeking a prominent role as a leader of the Global South. – Prabowo’s Outward-Looking Foreign Policy and Nigeria in the G20 – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Middle East
(Ian Dudgeon – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Despite its remote likelihood of occurring anytime soon, a two-state solution is the only practical way of ending the present Israel-Palestine conflict. What is more immediately required by the Australian government, however, is an answer to the growing domestic disunity caused by that conflict. – Australia Must Prioritise Addressing Domestic Disunity Caused by the Israel-Palestine Conflict – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Richard Haass – ASPI The Strategist) The Middle East resembles nothing so much as an earthquake zone with multiple fault lines. This week, fighting increased sharply along one of those lines, Israel’s border with Lebanon and more specifically, between Israel and Hezbollah. This in turn triggered activity along another fault line, as Iran, Hezbollah’s backer, retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at Israel, which has vowed to respond severely. Less clear is what will come next, either along these particular fault lines or elsewhere in the region. – Earthquakes in the Middle East | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Matthew Levitt – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Even Iranian ballistic missile strikes targeting Israel cannot mask the fact that Hezbollah, the jewel in the crown of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” no longer exists as we knew it. And since Hezbollah was the backbone of this network of militant proxies, Iran’s strategy of arming and deploying groups throughout the region is suddenly at risk. And yet, while its leadership has been decimated and its military capabilities severely degraded, Hezbollah still maintains an arsenal of rockets and a cadre of several thousand fighters. It will continue to pose potent military threats for Israel, Lebanon and the wider region. Hezbollah is surely eager to exact revenge upon Israel for the death of its leader of three decades, Hassan Nasrallah, but it is less capable of doing so militarily today. – Hezbollah Is Weakened, But Still Dangerous | The Washington Institute
(Daniel Byman – Center for Strategic & International Studies) As Israeli troops enter Lebanon to conduct what its officials called “limited, localized, and targeted raids” against Hezbollah positions along the border, they would do well to remember, and learn from, their problems in their last major operation there in 2006. The legacy of Israel’s last war in Lebanon has shaped both Hezbollah and Israeli approaches to conflict. Israel’s impressive strikes on Hezbollah in recent months suggest that they are unlikely to repeat the tactical disasters of 2006, but solving the broader strategic dilemmas Hezbollah poses will be far harder. – Lessons from Israel’s Last War in Lebanon (csis.org)
(Atlantic Council) There’s a message in the missiles. Iran’s 180-missile barrage against Israel on Tuesday was largely ineffectual (though it did reportedly kill a Palestinian man in the West Bank) due to Israeli air defenses and US assistance. The assault was Tehran’s response to the assassination of top Hezbollah figures, including the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, and more could be coming as Israel undertakes a ground campaign inside Lebanon. – What is Iran thinking now? – Atlantic Council
(Alan Pino – Atlantic Council) Since Hamas’s horrific October 7, 2023, assault on Israel, Iran has supported the group by orchestrating attacks on the Jewish state from Iran’s other Resistance Axis allies—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen. The attacks against Israel during the past year represent the latest stage in Iran’s long-running war of attrition strategy against the Jewish state, aimed at bringing about Israel’s destruction. Hamas’s war with Israel in the Gaza Strip and the almost continual attacks against Israel from Iran’s other proxies demonstrate the effectiveness of Tehran’s strategy of arming and training like-minded militias, whose military capabilities provide the Islamic Republic strategic depth and largely have allowed it to avoid a direct military confrontation with Israel. – Iran has a strategy for Israel. Now Israel needs one for Iran. – Atlantic Council
(Matthew Savill – RUSI) It will take time for both confirmation and reliable assessments of damage on the ground to come out, but at the moment and based on various government briefings, it appears that between 180 and 200 ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at several targets in Israel on the evening of 1 October. This is nearly double the number of ballistic missiles involved in Iran’s attack in April. At the time of writing, there do not appear to have been any accompanying cruise missiles or drones, including anything launched from Lebanon by Hezbollah. – Iran’s Missile Attack is a Challenge Israel Can’t Ignore | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Russia
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) The Kremlin announced updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by expanding the list of conditions that would justify such a measure. These updates are intended to serve as a warning to the West and legitimize fears of a potential nuclear response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using Western- or Ukrainian-made long-range weaponry. Russia’s nuclear umbrella now extends to Belarus. This may offer more insight into the use of tactical nuclear weapons, including scenarios such as preventive strikes, which have been hinted at by both Russian and Belarusian military officials. – Russia Updates Nuclear Doctrine, Lowering Threshold for Use of Nuclear Weapons (Part 1) – Jamestown
Russia – European Union
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia continues to conduct misinformation campaigns against Europe. As its war in Ukraine continues and Europeans become tired of the prolonged conflict, fewer people will be engaged and thus more susceptible to disinformation coming from Russia. Russia’s current disinformation campaign revolves around three key ideas: the spread of anti-Ukrainian agendas, anti-EU themes and narratives, and the glorification of Russia, its military-political leadership, diplomacy, and economic “achievements.”. Ordinary people already see the problems within European society that the European Union needs to solve, and it will only take a slight push from Russia to spur discontent among vulnerable populations against their governments’ shortcomings. – Russian Disinformation Targets the European Union – Jamestown
Sudan
(Will Devine – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Sudan’s escalating civil war has led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, with millions facing severe food insecurity and displacement. The conflict has resulted in widespread violence, including attacks on civilians and humanitarian workers, and has exacerbated regional instability. – The Humanitarian Crisis and Conflict in Sudan Continues to Deteriorate – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
United Kingdom
(Thomas Colley – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Recent protests in the UK during this summer’s general election and beyond reveal an ongoing battle against disinformation. While social media companies play a role in its dissemination, it is how elites engage with disinformation that truly matters. – The Impact of Disinformation: Contrasting Lessons from the UK – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Ed Owen – Atlantic Council) The United Kingdom’s ruling Labour Party converged on Liverpool for its annual conference last week, three months after its landslide election victory that swept Keir Starmer and his government into office after fourteen years out of power. Yet the mood of the gathering of activists, representatives, and ministers was far from celebratory. The economic and political hole the United Kingdom finds itself in—and the dire international situation in the Middle East and Ukraine—cast a serious shadow over the four-day event. – A man in a hurry: Keir Starmer’s early approach is making waves at home and abroad – Atlantic Council
USA
(William A. Galston, Elaine Kamarck – Brookings) To the surprise of many Americans, the vice presidential debate was civil, substantive, and focused on the policy issues that people care about the most. The candidates refrained from personal attacks and even found surprising areas of agreement. Citizens interviewed right after the debate ended expressed their appreciation for a debate that wasn’t painful to watch and actually stuck to major issues. – Why the vice presidential debate was not what voters expected (brookings.edu)
USA – Indo Pacific
(Susannah Patton – Lowy The Interpreter) The Biden administration sees its Asia policy as an overlooked success story — attracting much less attention than Ukraine or the Middle East, but noteworthy for the administration’s shoring up of alliances and partnerships. It’s likely, then, that a President Kamala Harris would maintain the Biden administration’s broad suite of Asia policies, especially the deepening of alliances with Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, and the networking of these partnerships via the Quad, AUKUS, the “Squad” (including the Philippines, Japan, and Australia), and various trilateral groupings, including with Japan and South Korea. However, several pitfalls could prevent Harris from living up to the Biden administration’s Asia track record. – Kamala Harris and the Indo-Pacific: Correcting the attention deficit | Lowy Institute
USA – Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Mick Ryan – Lowy The Interpreter) The timing of the US presidential election in November and the inauguration of the next US president in January will likely coincide with a lower tempo period in the Ukraine war as both sides hunker down for the winter. This does not mean that the fighting stops, but it does mean that military activity will appear to decline relative to the higher tempo spring and summer months. It is likely neither side will be able to make decisive inroads during this time. While a re-elected Democratic administration may continue its current level of support for Ukraine even if it is unclear who is winning the war, what might a newly elected Trump administration do? – Trump may surprise us on the Ukraine war | Lowy Institute
