From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Africa; Australia; Belarus-Russia; Canada-China; Democratic Republic of Congo; Geopolitics; Himalayas; India; India-Jammu & Kashmir-Pakistan; Infrastructure Resilience-Indo Pacific; Nuclear; Philippines; Romania-Russia; Russia; Russia-Ukraine-Türkiye; Syria; Ukraine-Warfare; US-Asia-ASEAN; US-Venezuela
Africa
(Tanusha Tyagi – Observer Research Foundation) The digital world has accelerated the democratisation of information, rendering every user a de facto editor, fact-checker, and amplifier. Social media plays an integral part in shaping societies’ collective perception, influencing political discourse, and even disrupting peace. Although it has empowered voices once unheard, it has also left citizens vulnerable to hearsay, propaganda, and disinformation campaigns. For Africa, a continent marked by rapid technological adoption, this presents both opportunity and peril. In 2024, a pivotal survey on political disinformation in Africa revealed that a significant majority of respondents in Botswana, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria, and South Africa prefer social media over traditional news sources like radio, television, and websites, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to disinformation. This shift underscores a broader global trend highlighted in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, where misinformation and disinformation were identified amongst the top global threats, surpassing even extreme weather events. Disinformation has the power to disrupt elections, fuel communal tensions, and weaken democratic institutions. Disinformation campaigns are often orchestrated by both domestic actors and foreign powers. Thus, strengthening Media and Information Literacy (MIL) within the African region is essential, not just as a civic skill but even as a tool for peace building. – Strengthening Media and Information Literacy (MIL) in Africa
Australia
(Malcolm Davis – ASPI The Strategist) Amid delays and cost blowouts in Defence, the Australian government on 1 December announced a sweeping overhaul of Defence procurement with the creation of a Defence Delivery Agency (DDA). This will occur from the merger of three existing groups—the Capability Acquisition and Sustainment Group (CASG); the Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) Group; and the Naval Shipbuilding and Sustainment Group. – Opportunities and risks in Australia’s defence acquisition shake-up | The Strategist
Belarus-Russia
(Alexander Taranov – The Jamestown Foundation) Minsk and Moscow are completing the infrastructure to place Russia’s new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) system on combat duty in Belarus in December, presenting it as a joint Union State deterrent against alleged Western militarization. Belarusian officials claim defensive intent, but the Oreshnik system’s offensive deployment patterns, combat duty patrolling regime, and command-and-control arrangements indicate otherwise. Russia may be preparing for an escalation scenario against Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), where the Kremlin retains authorization and operational authority over Oreshnik. Belarus would primarily serve as a launch platform with shared political responsibility for Oreshnik deployment and would likely be a first retaliatory target. Deployment may create a need for enhanced missile defense in Eastern Europe and Ukraine and for the deployment of counter-strike assets capable of hitting the Belarusian Oreshnik units during their launch-preparation phase. – Belarusian Oreshnik Deployment Planned for December – Jamestown
Canada-China
(Sze-Fung Lee – The Jamestown Foundation) Since 2015, the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Canada, along with PRC consulates in Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary, have organized at least 105 gray zone activities in 22 cities across 11 provinces. These consular “pop-up” events threaten Canada’s national security and undermine its sovereignty, democracy, and the rules-based international order. They operate outside of designated diplomatic facilities that enjoy extraterritorial protections and likely without the consent of the Canadian government. The events are framed as providing consular services to the diaspora community in Canada, but they also provide opportunities for political work, including influence operations, surveillance and coercion, and overseas political mobilization. The PRC’s strategy in Canada differs from that used in the United States. In Canada, all consulates and the embassy are involved, events are more evenly distributed across the country, and they specifically target provincial capitals rather than major cities. Consulates also co-host with a smaller set of community organizations, and tend to hold events in private, rather than public, spaces. – Consular pop-ups in Canada Advance Local United Front Work – Jamestown
Democratic Republic of Congo
(Shravishtha Ajaykumar – Observer Research Foundation) The Democratic Republic of Congo suffered from the onset of a ‘mysterious disease’ between 24 October and 5 December 2024, which was suspected to be malaria, as its impact was exacerbated due to malnutrition. More recently, since October 2025, Congo has also been facing an Ebola outbreak. The ongoing Rwandan-Congo conflict has severely affected Congo’s ability to treat local populations and, therefore, has aggravated the concurrent disease outbreaks in the country. – Growing Bioweapon Misinformation in Congo
Geopolitics
(World Economic Forum) As geopolitics shifts, three experts on international relations answer fundamental questions, including: Why do humans have wars? What are the new challenges facing peacemakers and peacekeepers? And what has changed for the Global South? – Making sense of geopolitics in 2025 | World Economic Forum
Himalayas
(Dhaval Desai, Sahil Kapoor – Observer Research Foundation) The Forest Survey of India’s biennial India State of Forest Report (ISFR) claims an encouraging rise in tree cover in the Himalayan states. However, other studies caution that this apparent success masks a deeper climatic and ecological crisis, inadvertently triggering a quiet carbon leak from the escalating forest fires. Between November 2023 and June 2024, Himachal Pradesh saw a 1,339 percent increase in forest fires. During the same period, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a 2,822 percent increase. Rising forest fire incidents have reduced the carbon performance of the hill states, diminishing the gains from increased green cover. – Forest Fires and the Eroding Carbon Balance in the Himalayas
India
(Gautam Chikermane – Observer Research Foundation) The surprise is not India’s real GDP growth rising to 8.2 percent in the second quarter of the financial year 2025-26 — compared to 5.6 percent in the same quarter of the previous year and marking a six-quarter high — but rather the narrow differential between real and nominal GDP growth, which stands at just 8.7 percent. Against several headwinds, from warring geopolitics and narrowing energy sourcing to unreasonable tariff assaults and high interest rates, India’s economic agents have delivered an aggregate growth number that no other large economy can match. India’s tertiary sector continued to lead with a growth rate of 9.3 percent, the secondary sector followed with 7.6 percent, while the primary sector lagged behind the surge at 2.9 percent. A consumer price index, or the inflation rate, of 0.25 percent has taken the wind out of real economic growth. A higher inflation rate, of, say, 2-3 percent, would have taken India’s nominal GDP growth to double digits. And while the general inflation rate is indicative, the prices of vegetables and pulses fell by 27.6 percent and 16.2 percent, respectively. – India’s 8.2% GDP Growth Signals the Success of Sustained Reforms
India-Jammu & Kashmir-Pakistan
(Bhashyam Kasturi – Observer Research Foundation) The spate of calls from within India’s political establishment, led primarily by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, for integrating Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) raises the issue of the basis for India’s claim. This report highlights that the 1993 judgment of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir High Court, states that Gilgit Baltistan, formerly known as Northern Areas, is part of the Jammu and Kashmir State. Even the Supreme Court of Pakistan, while reviewing the 1993 judgment, accepted that the territories occupied by Pakistan in 1947 are part of the State of Jammu and Kashmir. The present analysis looks back to the Gilgit coup in 1947, and delves into the British and Pakistani motives for occupying the region. The discussion then turns to the 1993 judgment itself, noting that its significance lies in providing support to India’s claims and highlighting the perfidy perpetrated by Pakistan with regard to PoJK. – The Legal Basis for India’s Claim to Pakistan-Occupied Jammu & Kashmir
Infrastructure Resilience – Indo Pacific
(Jason Van der Schyff – ASPI The Strategist) When governments talk about deterrence, they usually mean doctrine, platforms and weapons. Yet modern power rests equally on the infrastructure that sustains a nation under stress. The capacity to keep networks online, data protected and energy stable is a frontline of national defence. Resilience gives deterrence its credibility. It ensures that a country can absorb shocks, adapt under attack and continue to function when adversaries target civilian systems rather than military ones. In the Indo-Pacific, where coercion increasingly exploits economic, digital and social vulnerabilities, resilience practicably demonstrates deterrence. – Infrastructure resilience underpins national power | The Strategist
Nuclear
(Manoj Joshi – Observer Research Foundation) Perhaps the most alarming development amidst the swirl of wars and crises, be it Ukraine and Russia, Gaza and Israel, Iran-Israel, India and Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, Ethiopia and Eritrea and Sudan, is the reinsertion of the nuclear weapon factor in global concerns. Since the launch of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly brandished the nuclear threat to warn off the West. More recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted of successful tests of a new nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed Burevestnik missile, as well as of a nuclear-weapon-armed Poseidon underwater drone. – The Nuclear Chessboard: Rising Tests, Expanding Arsenals, Eroding Restraint
Philippines
(Cleo Anne Calimbahin – East Asia Forum) Corruption in flood control and mitigation projects has cost the Philippines tens of billions of pesos a year. Procurement reforms have been rolled back, campaign finance has been left under-regulated and public funds have paid for substandard or non-existent infrastructure. This has worsened the impact of natural disasters. Restrictions on asset declarations and threats to whistleblowers have further sabotaged accountability. The public is demanding the return of taxpayer funds, convictions for those guilty of misconduct and swifter action to curb the runaway levels of corruption. – Accountability washed away in Philippine flood control corruption | East Asia Forum
Romania-Russia
(George Vișan – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian violations of Romania’s airspace test the country’s will to defend itself and its support for Ukraine. Romania’s decision makers are no longer willing to turn a blind eye to Russian incursions. The change in Romania’s diplomatic tone, a new legal framework, and increased air defense capabilities suggest that a future incursion will not be tolerated. – Romania No Longer Turns Blind Eye to Russia’s Airspace Violations – Jamestown
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin has put ethnic Russians at the center of Moscow’s nationality policy, demanding that non-Russians in his country identify as members of a civic Russian nation defined exclusively in terms of the ethnic Russian one. Such a change will encourage radical Russian nationalist groups, who will conclude that the Kremlin is now fully on their side, and anger non-Russians, who will see this as threatening their futures as anything more than folkloric groups. A new era of tension and classes between the two will be set—a situation Putin will be able to manage only by increasing repression and will ultimately threaten both ethnic Russians and non-Russians alike. – Putin Puts Ethnic Russians at Center of Nationality Policy – Jamestown
Russia-Ukraine-Türkiye
(Yevgeniya Gaber – Atlantic Council) As US talks with Russia and Ukraine intensify, attention has turned to the potential terms for a settlement to end the war. Amid recent developments, Turkey has expressed cautious optimism about the path toward peace. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Die Welt this week that a Ukraine-Russia agreement could secure regional peace for fifty to seventy years, saying such a deal should oblige both sides “not to attack each other under any circumstances.”. However, a premature deal that favors Russia or leaves Ukraine without credible and functional security arrangements would threaten Turkey’s own security, influence, and strategic position in the region. For Ankara, the consequences of a lopsided peace deal that advantages Moscow will continue to be felt long after the immediate cessation of hostilities. Any peace that cements Russian gains would alter the balance of power in the Black Sea region and constrain Turkey’s geopolitical footprint for decades. – Any peace deal that empowers Russia is a direct security threat to Turkey – Atlantic Council
Syria
(Gregory Waters and Kayla Koontz – Atlantic Council) In late September, violence erupted in the countryside around Suqaylabiyah, a large Christian town in Syria’s Hama governorate. The area had generally avoided the type of sectarian violence that has plagued other parts of the country since the December 8, 2024 collapse of the Assad regime. But an unsolved rape case in nearby Hawrat Amurin fueled new anger and tensions, eventually leading to the kidnapping and torture of a local soldier by Alawi insurgents. The next day, members of the soldier’s family entered the village near where he was kidnapped, demanding he be released. At the same time, Sunnis from other nearby communities stormed Hawrat Amurin, looting homes and killing an elderly man. – How Syria’s grassroots civil peace committees can help prevent intercommunal conflict – Atlantic Council
Ukraine-Warfare
(David Axe – ASPI The Strategist) The deep strike calculus was already changing for all the world’s leading military powers when, back in August, Ukraine dramatically illustrated the shifting balance of power by revealing a powerful and inexpensive new cruise missile, the Flamingo. The six-ton, 3,000-kilometre-range missile is priced at $500,000 per round, a quarter the cost of a US Tomahawk cruise missile. Since early this year, Ukraine has been shooting the fibreglass Flamingos with their second-hand turbofan engines at Russian targets in occupied Ukraine and in Russia itself. – Lesson from Ukraine: US, Taiwan need interceptor drones and wide-area jammers | The Strategist
US-Asia-ASEAN
(Jayant Menon – East Asia Forum) US tariffs may have watered down since Liberation Day, but decision-makers in firms across Asia are already treating the United States as an unreliable market and reorganising their business accordingly. Asian companies are shifting their production, pricing and market strategies toward ASEAN and other non-US destinations, signalling a structural realignment. This pivot is reshaping supply chains, boosting ASEAN’s role as a manufacturing hub and pressuring domestic producers as cheaper imports flood the market. – Asian firms steer off the Trump trail | East Asia Forum
US-Venezuela
(Will Merrow – Council on Foreign Relations) U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent call with Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro—during which Trump reportedly pressed Maduro to step down—follows a substantial increase in the U.S. military’s presence in the Caribbean Sea. The United States has positioned military assets that could potentially support an invasion of Venezuela, though it remains unclear whether the Trump administration is considering such a move. ‘America First’ Meets the National Security and Defense Strategies
Trump has signaled his intention to escalate beyond the recent maritime attacks on alleged drug boats, however, saying at a cabinet meeting on December 2 that “we’re going to start doing those strikes on land, too. You know, the land is much easier… And we know the routes they take, and we know everything about them. We know where they live.” – Mapping the U.S. Military Buildup Near Venezuela | Council on Foreign Relations
