From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Bangladesh-DR Congo-Lebanon-South Sudan; Cambodia; Cambodia’s Prince Holding Group; Electromagnetic Warfare; Global Democracy; Mekong Region; South Sudan; Thailand; UK; Ukraine; US
Bangladesh, DR Congo, Lebanon, South Sudan
(Crisis Group) The information provided below relies on our monthly global conflict tracker, CrisisWatch, and qualitative assessments provided by Crisis Group’s analysts based in or near conflict areas. The selection is not exhaustive, and should be read in conjunction with country/regional reports and other early warning products. In the November 2025-April 2026 edition of On the Horizon, we showcase entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Lebanon and South Sudan. – On the Horizon: November 2025-April 2026 | International Crisis Group
Cambodia
(Mom Mit – East Asia Forum) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has eagerly sought to increase Cambodia’s foreign direct investment and grow Cambodia’s economy since taking office. Yet, while 2025 foreign direct investment (FDI) numbers seem to tell a successful story, FDI continues to be low-quality, highly concentrated in specific regions and reliant on China. The poor quality of FDI is largely attributable to weak institutions, corruption and lack of transparency in Cambodia. This leaves Cambodia with FDI that creates short-term, operational employment with little opportunity for skills upgrading or technology transfer and stunts Cambodia’s efforts to move up the value chain. If it is to achieve economic growth, Cambodia must substitute quantity for quality in approving FDI projects. – Cambodia’s rising FDI numbers don’t add up to quality growth | East Asia Forum
Cambodia’s Prince Holding Group
(Leo SF Lin – East Asia Forum) The US civil forfeiture targeting crypto assets linked to Cambodia’s Prince Holding Group reveals a vast network of alleged crypto fraud, human trafficking and money laundering through international financial networks across Asia. Exploiting financial, socio-cultural and political dimensions, the group has maintained strong ties to Chinese-speaking regions to sustain its transnational criminal network. The case underscores the need for enhanced intelligence sharing, stricter beneficial ownership registries and victim support mechanisms – Unravelling Prince Group’s criminal networks | East Asia Forum
Electromagnetic Warfare
(Clara Le Gargasson and James Black – RAND Corporation) The war in Ukraine has exposed a critical front long neglected by Western militaries: electromagnetic warfare (EW). Control over this invisible battlespace, where communications are jammed, drones blinded, and precision weapons thrown off course, can decide the outcome of a conflict. Russia has understood this sooner than NATO, using EW to isolate Ukrainian units, disrupt command networks, and neutralize Western systems. Ukraine has adapted with ingenuity, but it is learning in combat what NATO should have learned in training. After decades focused on counterinsurgency, the Alliance now risks confronting its most capable adversary without mastery of a defining domain of modern warfare. – Electromagnetic Warfare: NATO’s Blind Spot Could Decide the Next Conflict | RAND
Global Democracy
(Oliver Stuenkel and Adrian Feinberg – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) As U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration have dismantled international democracy support over the past ten months—gutting aid programs, withdrawing from multilateral agreements, and transforming the U.S. from a standard-bearer of global democracy into a case study in democratic backsliding—world democracies have struggled to formulate a collective response. Reports have been authored, statements issued, and joint letters signed—but real action remains limited. Of these efforts, the most organized so far is In Defense of Democracy: Fighting Against Extremism, a bloc of “like-minded democratic states” convened by the progressive leaders of Spain, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Uruguay to “advance an active democratic diplomacy” in the face of institutional erosion. – The New Democracy Defenders | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Mekong Region
(Andrea Haefner – East Asia Forum) Tightening control over civil society in the Mekong Region reflects an authoritarian recalibration presented as modernisation. Decrees on INGOs and NPAs, initially framed as modernising reforms, now function as tools of political power. As approvals stall and oversight deepens, Laos exemplifies how governments across the Mekong region and beyond use law and regulation to constrain dissent while projecting the appearance of orderly governance. – Regulation tightens around civil society in the Mekong Region | East Asia Forum
South Sudan
(Crisis Group) The trial of South Sudan’s First Vice President Riek Machar represents one of the greatest threats to the country’s stability since the end of its civil war in 2018. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech analyses the charges against Machar and the danger they pose. – A Trial for South Sudan’s Frail Peace | International Crisis Group
Thailand
(Termsak Chalermpalanupap – FULCRUM) People’s Party, Pheu Thai, and Bhumjaithai, Thailand’s three largest parties, have been intensifying their competition in preparation for an early general election. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and his Bhumjaithai Party have the best chance of winning political advantage and gaining more popularity. – Competition among Thailand’s Three Largest Parties Deepens the Country’s Political Uncertainties | FULCRUM
UK
(Christopher Vandome – Chatham House) The new UK Critical Minerals Strategy, launched last weekend, is ambitious in scope – framing critical minerals as a foundation of the UK’s green growth and security agenda. The justification for the strategy is clear: critical minerals are integral to modern life, from communications, critical infrastructure, defence and renewable energy to electric cars and life sciences. The government identifies that by 2035 annual demand for copper in the UK will almost double, while demand for lithium will increase by 1,100 per cent. – The UK’s new critical minerals strategy is an ambitious step forward. Now it needs a champion | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Ukraine
(Josh Rudolph, Olena Prokopenko – GMFUS) Andriy Yermak’s resignation today as head of Ukraine’s Office of the President marks a turning point that makes Ukraine stronger, not weaker, as it navigates critical negotiations over ending Russia’s war. While some may worry about leadership changes during such a pivotal moment, this opportunity to reboot Ukraine’s system of governance actually demonstrates democratic resilience and enhances Kyiv’s position with allies—precisely when both matter most. – Yermak’s Departure Strengthens Ukraine’s Hand | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Crisis Group) In this episode of War & Peace, Elissa and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel are joined by Sabine Freizer Gunes, UN Women representative for Ukraine, about how the war in Ukraine has shaped and amplified gender inequalities in Ukraine and how women and women’s organisations are responding. They discuss the mood in Ukraine as it enters its fourth winter of full-scale war and the toll the conflict is taking on women from higher rates of sexual and gender-based violence, mounting mental health pressures and economic insecurity. They explore how women are navigating both the challenges and opportunities the war has created, how the Ukrainian government is addressing these issues, and how women’s organisations are affected by aid cuts. As Crisis Group marks its 30th anniversary, they also discuss how women’s roles in politics and peacemaking in Ukraine and beyond are evolving amid a global pushback against gender equality and women’s rights. – How Ukraine’s Women Are Meeting the Challenges of War | International Crisis Group
US
(Kaleah Haddock and Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations) Since returning to office in 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken major steps to reshape immigration policy and enforcement in pursuit of his campaign promise to execute “the largest domestic deportation operation” in U.S. history. As part of this effort, his administration has carried out deportation flights, sometimes to third countries where migrants have no existing ties; ramped up nationwide immigration raids; and granted expanded or new powers to various federal, state, and local officials to enforce domestic immigration laws. – ICE and Deportations: How Trump Is Reshaping Immigration Enforcement | Council on Foreign Relations
