From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Europe-China; Europe-Russia; Gaza; Thailand-Cambodia; US; US-Europe; US-Pakistan; Venezuela
Europe – China
(Noah Barkin – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The phrase from the July 24 EU-China summit that may live on, in spite of the Beijing meeting’s barren outcomes, is “inflection point”. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used the term in her meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping to underscore Europe’s frustration with years of stonewalling from Beijing on the topics that worry Brussels most: growing imbalances between the world’s second and third largest economic blocs and China’s unrelenting support for a revanchist Russia. It was a warning to China’s supreme leader that a relationship that has been spiraling slowly downward for most of the past decade will lurch even lower unless China takes Europe’s concerns seriously and acts on them. It should be clear by now that China has no intention of doing either. Even EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič, who emerged from a March visit to Beijing confident that some sort of package deal might be achieved, has been transformed into a China realist in the span of a few short months. “China did not move an inch,” a senior EU official told me. “We expected them to offer up some cosmetic concessions but even that didn’t happen.” Another EU official put it this way: “The Chinese have shifted gears. They are convinced that they managed the US. And they are confident that they will manage us even better.” – Watching China in Europe—August 2025 | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Europe – Russia
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) The startling swarms of drones Russia and Ukraine are fielding against each other—an arms and technology race with lethal consequences—underscores how unprepared Europe is for modern warfare. That makes the twenty-seven European Union (EU) member states, particularly those neighboring Russia, vulnerable to a rapidly innovating and battle-tested Russian military. Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s first-ever commissioner for defense and space, is tracking this escalating drone warfare with a sense of concern and urgency. On a visit to Washington last week, he shared with me what Europe is learning about modern warfare from Ukraine—and how the EU intends to respond to those lessons. – Europe is ‘not ready’ for the Russian threat. At least it now has a plan. – Atlantic Council
Gaza
(Center for Strategic & International Studies) How Did Gaza Descend into Mass Starvation and What Is the Path Out? | Mona Yacoubian; Netanyahu Tries to Balance International and Domestic Pressures | Will Todman; This Was Israel’s 9/11. Will Gaza Be Its Iraq? | Jon B. Alterman; It May Never Be Declared, but Famine Is in Gaza | Caitlin Welsh and Zane Swanson – Experts React: Starvation in Gaza
(Soufan Center) Starvation conditions throughout the Gaza Strip are broadening as talks falter on a renewed Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement. Potentially complicating ceasefire talks, President Trump on Friday seemed to adopt Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on pursuing the conflict until Hamas is eliminated. The severe humanitarian conditions in Gaza are placing increasing pressure on Netanyahu, as well as on Trump’s team, to bring the conflict to an end or, failing that, to improve the flow of aid to the population. To ease criticism, over the weekend, Israel undertook a series of modest concessions to expand humanitarian access to Gaza, including a pause in the fighting in certain neighborhoods and allowing renewed air drops of supplies. – Gaza Conditions Worsen as Ceasefire Talks Falter – The Soufan Center
Thailand – Cambodia
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) In recent weeks, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia had ramped up dramatically, until the two sides agreed to a ceasefire that started at midnight Monday their time; noon today, U.S. eastern time. The ceasefire was brokered by Malaysian and U.S. officials, and President Donald Trump used as leverage the threat of not making trade deals with Thailand and Cambodia unless the fighting ceased. Although the number of casualties was small when the conflict started in earnest on May 28, by now, some thirty Cambodians and Thais have died. Some 200,000 people reportedly have been displaced from the areas near the conflict, martial law has been declared in Thai provinces near the border, and nationalist rhetoric escalated on both sides. In addition, in recent days before the ceasefire, Cambodia reportedly appeared to try to broaden the conflict by initiating attacks on Thailand’s southern coast, which the Thai military says were effectively rebuffed. – Thailand and Cambodia’s Ceasefire: Will It Stop War When Elites Want Conflict? | Council on Foreign Relations
US
(Philip Luck and Ina Simonovska – Center for Strategic & Informational Studies) Over the past few weeks, the administration has announced framework agreements with the United Kingdom, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, and, most recently, the European Union. The shape of these agreements provides significant clarity about administration objectives and distinguishes this approach from previous trade policy frameworks. The policy structure includes four primary components: (1) uniform and significant tariff rates across most products for each partner—with China as a notable exception and details still emerging for the European Union; (2) retention of higher tariffs on smaller set of strategic industries—including steel and aluminum; (3) acceptance of investment and purchase commitments rather than requiring reciprocal tariff reductions; and perhaps most importantly (4) achieving this significant restructuring of U.S. tariff rates without triggering widespread retaliation from trading partners. This success in avoiding retaliation likely stems from credible signaling of “escalation dominance”—essentially convincing partners that entering a cycle of economic retaliation would be more costly for them than for the United States. With the picture of U.S. policy now coming into focus, this provides a good opportunity to assess what the economic evidence reveals about these policies and what it means for future policy design. – Trump’s Trade Strategy Takes Shape with Latest EU Trade Deal
US – Europe
(Penny Naas – German Marshall Fund of the United States) President Donald Trump landed a big win with the US-EU framework deal just concluded at his Turnberry golf course in Scotland. The bloc scored a bogey. It may have avoided more draconian American tariffs, but early details reflect a setback for Brussels on substance and geopolitical positioning. Like trade negotiations, golf requires focus and concentration more than strength. Europe sells itself as the world’s largest single market, but Trump’s unilateral and asymmetric approach knocked the continent off-kilter from the start and rattled its confidence. In the end, the US president outmaneuvered Europe by demanding significant concessions and offering little except a reprieve from threatened higher duties. The deal, which excludes any enforcement commitments, creates significant leverage for the United States in future negotiations, during which tariffs could change—up or down—yet again. – The United States Trumps the EU | German Marshall Fund of the United States
(Atlantic Council) “This is the biggest of them all.” That’s how US President Donald Trump described a preliminary trade deal struck on Sunday with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Though details so far are scarce, the United States will impose a 15 percent tariff on most goods from the European Union (EU)—a lower figure than the 30 percent that Trump had threatened earlier, but one that represents a new normal for major US trading partners. In return, Trump said, the EU will purchase hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of US energy and military equipment, and make additional investments in the United States. – How big a deal is the new US-EU trade announcement? – Atlantic Council
US – Pakistan
(Katherine Golden – Atlantic Council) A US-Pakistan trade deal is on the way, according to Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. Dar, who spoke at an Atlantic Council Front Page event on Friday during his trip to Washington, said that the United States and Pakistan’s economic relationship has “ascended,” and the two sides are working on finalizing the trade deal, with the Pakistani prime minister’s office reviewing the deal to “fine-tune” it now. “We hope to conclude a mutually beneficial trade agreement . . . hopefully in days, not in weeks.”. As for the specific tariff rate expected, Dar said that “as long as we are better than or equal to our peers, we should be fine.” US President Donald Trump has recently announced deals with Japan, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, with tariff rates ranging from 15 percent to 20 percent. Dar had met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier Friday. “We seek a relationship grounded not in dependency but in mutual benefit; not in blame, but in dialogue,” Dar said. “We have to come out of this transactional relationship,” he added. “And it should be strategic, stable.”. – Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar on a trade deal with Trump, balancing the US and China, and peace with India – Atlantic Council
Venezuela
(Mark Feierstein, Alexandra Winkler, Juan Cruz, Ryan C. Berg, Eric Farnsworth, and P. Michael McKinley – Center for Strategic & International Studies) On July 28, 2024, Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro suffered a humiliating electoral defeat to the country’s opposition. Unlike past elections, the opposition managed to secure voter tally sheets proving their victory—unequivocally. However, in one of the most brazen electoral thefts in history, the Maduro regime responded by fabricating electoral results inconsistent with the tally sheets, and determined to remain in power at all costs, launched a brutal crackdown on society. Furthermore, the regime claimed a hack of its National Electoral Council emanating from North Macedonia, taking the website offline and rendering it unable to release any electoral data. One year later, Venezuela remains a police state with over 800 unjustly detained prisoners. The regime has held recent sham “elections” for National Assembly, regional bodies, and governorships, claiming victory and political dominance over the entire country, yet the National Electoral Council’s website remains down—a product of the purported hack. – Experts React: One Year Since Latin America’s Most Brazen Electoral Theft in History
