From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: China-Brazil-Latin America; China-US; Gaza; Finland-Sweden-Norway-Russia; Japan; Russia; Russia-Baltics; Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond); Syria-Islamic State; UK-US; US-Russia
China – Brazil – Latin America
(Matthew Johnson – The Jamestown Foundation) Brazil, a strategic partner to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is taking a co-leading role in shaping a regional economic order decoupled from U.S.-centric trade and financial norms. The most consequential outcome of President Lula’s recent visit to Beijing was the signing of a comprehensive financial integration package encompassing settlement, currency swap lines, market access, and shared digital infrastructure design. Lula was in town for the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the China-CELAC Forum along with other leaders and ministers from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC). In his speech at the forum, President Xi Jinping signaled a drive to expand the PRC’s presence in Latin America through coordinated infrastructure investment, economic integration, and political alignment. New security cooperation agreements signed with Brazil may intersect with U.S. regional drug enforcement efforts and suggest a future in which Beijing could gain procedural influence over how security and surveillance are administered in partner states. – PRC Positions Brazil as Regional Hub in a New Latin American Order – Jamestown
China – US
(Audrye Wong, Francis de Beixedon – The Jamestown Foundation) The united front operates abroad as a political machine, helping to get people elected by fielding candidates, mobilizing votes, and building power bases. Asian-Americans are growing in numbers yet remain key swing voters. Beijing’s role in shaping the political leanings of this demographic could have an enduring impact on who the United States’s leaders are. In New York City, individuals and networks connected to the Party’s united front system have helped elect at least three local politicians in the last three years. John Chan, a power broker whose networks span U.S. and Chinese officials, supported a 2022 proposal that would have created New York City’s first majority-Asian district, opposing established Asian-American community groups in the process. This likely would have given united front-linked groups a more dependable way to select and back elected representatives. – Beijing’s Political Machine Makes Inroads in New York Politics – Jamestown
Gaza
(Soufan Center) After an over two-month blockade, the first major influx of humanitarian aid entered the Gaza Strip late last week. The humanitarian situation in the Strip has continued to be catastrophic, with acute food insecurity, widespread malnutrition, hundreds of thousands displaced, and disproportionate impacts on women and children. International outcry over Israel’s blockade and military escalation had been mounting in recent weeks, with the UK, France, and Canada recently threatening “concrete actions,” including sanctions, and the Trump administration voicing growing concerns. The recent killing of two Israeli Embassy employees in Washington, D.C is the latest in a string of violent incidents impacting Jewish, Arab, and Muslim communities in the West since the start of the conflict, underscoring the impact of the war beyond the Middle East. – As Aid into Gaza Resumes, Tensions Mount Globally Over the Escalating Conflict – The Soufan Center
Finland – Sweden – Norway – Russia
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in part as a response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting a Scandinavian defense overhaul. This overhaul includes plans released in June 2024 for a railway to transport NATO troops from Norway through Sweden to the Finnish border with Russia. Finland’s rail plans face major logistical and financial challenges, including track gauge conversion from Russian to European standards, with costs exceeding $15 billion. Russia is responding to Finland and Sweden’s NATO accession with a military buildup at the Finnish border, reinstating the Leningrad Military District, deploying missile brigades, and upgrading its bases. – Finland, Sweden, and Norway to Build a Railway to Transport Troops and Weaponry to Russian Border – Jamestown
Japan
(Yunchen Tian – East Asia Forum) Efforts to integrate the growing foreign resident population remain slow and uneven in Japan. Local governments carry the primary responsibility for implementing measures, leaving under-resourced rural and remote municipalities at a disadvantage. Institutional barriers hinder the development of skilled personnel and the accumulation of institutional knowledge. To enable more effective and sustainable integration nationwide, the national government should provide shared tools and appropriate funding for specialised training. – Institutional barriers hinder the integration of Japan’s foreign population | East Asia Forum
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Russian Community, now the largest Russian nationalist organization, is rapidly evolving from an ideological group supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian Orthodox Church into a criminal band ready to engage in violence against the Kremlin’s opponents. The Kremlin has orchestrated this process because it hopes to use a Russian Community prone to violence against minorities to channel the nationalist passions of veterans returning from Putin’s war against Ukraine or other conflicts Russia is involved in. Such use of the Russian Community may not only deepen ethnic and religious divides in Russia but create a monster that will threaten the regime, or alternatively transform it further in the direction of fascism. – Kremlin Hopes ‘Russian Community’ Violence will Channel Veterans’ Nationalism – Jamestown
Russia – Baltics
(Eitvydas Bajarūnas – The Jamestown Foundation) Hybrid threats describe a complex strategy combining military tools with unconventional methods. Addressing hybrid threats in the Baltics is a continuous, never-ending process centered around developing resilience at the societal, national, European, and trans-Atlantic levels. With Russia’s frontline in Ukraine nearly stagnant, Moscow’s efforts yielding limited results despite enormous casualty rates and physical destruction, and peace efforts so far have made no progress, the prospects of a prolonged conflict have become apparent. The Kremlin is now preparing for a long battle both on the frontline and beyond. Consequently, Russia’s use of hybrid strategies, alongside military ones, has become more evident. The Baltic States have effectively countered Russia’s continuously escalating hybrid threats through resilience and strategic cooperation with the European Union and NATO. Their ability to withstand pressure highlights their strength in defending democracy and resisting foreign interference. – Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Tactics Target the Baltics – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on Western political divisions, interpreting weak European sanctions as a sign of diplomatic success while Kremlin media emphasizes Russia’s control of battlefield momentum. Russia’s militarized economy shows signs of strain due to rising inflation, stifled civilian sectors, and diminishing oil revenues as Moscow’s aggressive posturing risks economic instability. – Putin Holds Firm to War Course, Conjuring Mirage Of Victory – Jamestown
Syria – Islamic State
(Devorah Margolin – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) May has been a roller-coaster month for U.S. policy in Syria, with promising highs and tragic lows in the past two weeks alone. Just days after President Trump and President Ahmed al-Sharaa celebrated a new chapter in bilateral relations, Islamic State operatives set off a car bomb on May 18 that killed Syrian security personnel in Mayadin, marking their first successful strike against the new government. The incident was a stark reminder that even as officials turn their attention to the political process, they cannot lose sight of the counter-IS mission, which has been a central part of U.S. policy in Syria since 2014. The White House has already urged President Sharaa to help prevent an IS resurgence and assume responsibility for detention centers holding thousands of IS members and affiliated individuals in the northeast. The challenge now is to clarify how Damascus should respond to these expectations on the ground, set a clear timeline for implementation, and coordinate with U.S. partners in the region and beyond. – Setting Expectations with Syria on Countering the Islamic State | The Washington Institute
UK – US
(Atlantic Council) On May 27, Peter Mandelson, the British ambassador to the United States, spoke at this year’s edition of the Atlantic Council’s Christopher J. Makins Lecture, a series exploring the state of the Atlantic partnership and its future direction. The below is adapted from his opening speech, entitled “Renewing the Transatlantic Alliance: Peace Through Strength in a New Age of Great Power Rivalry.” – British ambassador to the US: The UK must ‘become less dependent on America, while remaining inseparably linked’ – Atlantic Council
US – Russia
(John E. Herbst – Atlantic Council) On May 25, US President Donald Trump issued a blistering criticism of Russia’s massive and dayslong bombardment of Kyiv, Odesa, and other Ukrainian cities. Trump’s language was blunt and directed squarely at Russian President Vladimir Putin. In an impromptu discussion with reporters, Trump said of Putin: “I’ve known him a long time, always gotten along with him, but he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all. We’re in the middle of talking and he’s sending rockets into Kyiv and other cities. I don’t like it at all.” He also spoke about imposing additional sanctions on Russia. Trump followed up this statement with a strongly worded Truth Social post, in which he said that Putin “has gone absolutely CRAZY! . . . I’ve always said that he wants ALL of Ukraine, not just a piece of it, and maybe that’s proving to be right, but if he does, it will lead to the downfall of Russia!” – Do Trump’s criticisms of Putin mark a turning point in his Russia policy? – Atlantic Council
