From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Democratic Republic of the Congo, International Criminal Court, Lebanon, Middle East, Panama Canal-US, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Sudan’s Darfur, Syria, UN-US, US, US-Colombia, US-Indo Pacific, US-Russia-Europe
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News)
As fighting intensifies between the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group and Congolese forces, UN chief of Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix underscored the critical state of the battle for eastern DRC’s regional capital Goma, describing the crisis as “volatile and dangerous”. –DR Congo: Battle for Goma continues as ‘volatile’ crisis unfolds | UN News
International Criminal Court
(The Current and Former Presidents of the Assembly of States Parties of the International Criminal Court – Just Security)
As we enter the new year, the future of the International Criminal Court (ICC) faces significant threats. Sanctions against the Court and its officials, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns jeopardize the world’s first permanent international criminal court, which addresses the worst crimes known to humankind: the crime of aggression, genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. In 2023, the ICC suffered a cyberattack that disrupted operations and imposed additional costs on its Member States. Criminal proceedings were initiated in the Russian Federation against the Court’s Prosecutor and Judges after an arrest warrant was issued for its President and a collaborator. Civil society members supporting the ICC have faced threats, and the possibility of renewed U.S. sanctions for investigating Israeli officials looms large. Such actions could severely hinder the Court’s nearly 20 investigations worldwide, including in Libya, Myanmar, Palestine, Ukraine, and Venezuela, threatening its very existence and abandoning victims of the gravest crimes. – We Need the International Legal Order: A Call to Protect the International Criminal Court
Lebanon
(Jonathan Masters – Council on Foreign Relations)
Lebanon is one of the Middle East’s rare democracies, but it has long suffered dysfunction at the hands of corrupt sectarian elites and meddling foreign powers.
Israel’s 2024 assault significantly eroded Hezbollah’s military power in southern Lebanon, but the Iran-backed group could remain a major political force in the country.
The United States continues to provide extensive financial and military support to the Lebanese Armed Forces, which it sees as a critical counterweight to Hezbollah. – Lebanon: How Israel, Hezbollah, and Regional Powers Are Shaping Its Future | Council on Foreign Relations
Middle East
(Siddhant Kishore, Katherine Wells, Andie Parry, Kelly Campa, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Gaza Strip Ceasefire: Gazan civilians began to return to the northern Gaza Strip on January 27 after Hamas and PIJ fulfilled outstanding obligations under the ceasefire agreement. PIJ’s failure to release the hostage is unlikely to be a result of friction between PIJ and Hamas. PIJ has previously released hostages as part of the November 2023 ceasefire agreement and it has not engaged Israeli forces in the strip during the ceasefire, which indicates that PIJ continues to cooperate with Hamas.
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: The United States announced on January 26 that Israel and Lebanon had extended the ceasefire in Lebanon for an additional 23 days. Hezbollah requires time to rebuild and is unlikely to resume significant operations against Israeli forces in Lebanon over the next three weeks.
Syrian Army Formation: The SDF reportedly rejected a concessionary proposal from the HTS-led Syrian government that would require it to integrate into the interim Defense Ministry. Turkey’s encouragement of Turkish-backed factions to join the Syrian army is likely part of a Turkish effort to coerce the SDF to concede to the Syrian government in negotiations. – Iran Update, January 27, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(UN Security Council)
On 28 January morning the Security Council is expected to hold an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). Algeria requested the meeting to discuss the situation of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini and the Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), Jan Egeland, are the expected briefers. – Briefing on the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
(Andrew Miller – Just Security)
The January 15 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas presents the best, though precarious, opportunity to end the war in Gaza and secure the release of remaining Israeli hostages after 15 months of conflict. Even a temporary cessation of hostilities, allowing for the liberation of hostages and a surge in life-saving humanitarian assistance to Gaza, is a welcome reprieve from the horrors and sacrifices of warfare. While continuation of the ceasefire beyond the 42-day first stage is possible, it is by no means probable given the political interests of the Israeli government and Hamas’s continued recalcitrance. The implementation of the second stage of the agreement, or even just continued calm, likely depends on whether President Donald Trump is prepared to intervene forcefully to keep the peace. – Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Temporary or Sustainable?
Panama Canal – US
(Atlantic Council)
It was clear sailing, “without a hitch, accident, or unpropitious incident of any kind.” On August 15, 1914, the cargo ship SS Ancon made the first official transit of the Panama Canal, completing the passage from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. US diplomat John Barrett was there to record the historic moment, and he marveled at how the pathbreaking voyage already seemed routine. “So quietly did she pursue her way that . . . a strange observer coming suddenly upon the scene would have thought that the canal had always been in operation.”. After the Ancon, the voyage did become routine. By the mid-1920s, annual traffic on the canal surpassed five thousand ships. Today, more than twelve thousand ships per year make the voyage across the isthmus. The quicker, cheaper, and safer way to bridge the oceans has transformed global trade and the Western Hemisphere. – Expert context: What’s going on with Trump and the Panama Canal? – Atlantic Council
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, Grace Mappes, and George Barros – Institute for the Study of War)
Ukrainian forces struck Russian long-range drone storage facilities in Oryol Oblast again on January 26.
The European Union (EU) proposed an aid package on January 27 to Moldova and Transnistria to help the ongoing gas crisis in the pro-Russian breakaway republic as part of efforts to reduce Russia’s ability to exploit Transnistria in its energy blackmail schemes targeting Chisinau.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced Khortytsia Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Andrii Hnatov with Ground Forces Commander Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi on January 26.
Ukrainian forces recently recaptured lost positions near Toretsk.
Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kurakhove.
The Russian government continues to expand the federal “Time of Heroes” program, which aims to install Kremlin-selected veterans into government positions, by creating similar programs for Russian veterans across government, including at the regional level. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 27, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Sudan’s Darfur
(UN News)
The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Monday called on the UN Security Council to act decisively to address the worsening atrocities in Sudan’s Darfur region. – Darfur: ICC Prosecutor urges immediate action to address atrocities | UN News
Syria
(UN News)
A report from UN human rights investigators for Syria released on Monday has laid bare the systematic use of arbitrary detention, torture and enforced disappearances by the deposed Assad regime. – Syria: Rights probe reveals systematic torture and detention of Assad regime | UN News
(Kenneth Roth – Just Security)
The sudden toppling of Syria’s tyrant, Bashar al-Assad, provides an opportunity for justice that until recently few would have thought possible. The Assad regime was one of the world’s most brutal. Now its senior officials are scattered. Assad has found a haven in Russia, but others remain in the region and are vulnerable to arrest and prosecution. That requires deploying all possible resources to secure justice, including the International Criminal Court. – Syria Needs the International Criminal Court
UN – US
(UN News)
The UN Secretary-General on Monday called on the US Government to consider “additional exemptions” to a directive which pauses nearly all foreign aid for 90 days. – Guterres calls on US to exempt development and humanitarian funds from aid ‘pause’ | UN News
US
(Matt Pearl – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
Developing technology policy is an incredibly complex task that normally takes decades. Looking at the CHIPS Act, for instance, the idea of bolstering the United States’ production capabilities in semiconductors was proposed in the 1980s, gained political momentum in 2020, was enacted by Congress in 2022, and will take several decades to implement. During his first week, President Donald Trump did not bring any technology policies to fruition. By issuing a flurry of presidential actions that will affect technology policy, however, he showed that the administration is eager to make significant changes soon. – Trump’s Moves to Modernize U.S. Technology Policy
(Mark F. Cancian – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
President Donald Trump sent U.S. troops to the southern border in one of his first actions as commander-in-chief. That he took such an action is not surprising since border security was the central theme of his campaign. Indeed, immigration actions constituted 8 of President Trump’s first 50 executive orders (EOs). The United States has had troops on the border for over 30 years. Unprecedented, however, is President Trump’s tasking the military with “sealing the border” and the potential scale of military involvement. These critical questions explore what President Trump has directed, what the forces might do, how effective they might be, and what the deployment’s effect will be on U.S. readiness for other emergencies. – Trump Sends Troops to the Southern Border: A Crisis or a Continuation of U.S. Policy?
(The Soufan Center)
Economic sanctions will constitute a key tool of the Trump administration’s efforts to advance U.S. and allied interests in the Middle East region. Immediately after taking office, Trump lifted sanctions on violent Israeli settlers and restored the Houthi movement of Yemen to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). U.S. officials are working with their European counterparts to “snap back” all U.N. sanctions on Iran and impose “maximum pressure” on Tehran. Concerns about Syria’s new rulers might delay Trump administration decisions to ease Assad-era sanctions on Syria, potentially hindering the country’s reconstruction and stability. – Sanctions Will Be Central to Trump’s Regional Policy – The Soufan Center
(Burcu Kilic – Centre for International Governance Innovation)
Since the November 2024 US presidential election, trade and tariffs have become a global topic of discussion. While tariffs have dominated the chatter, other aspects of President Donald Trump’s economic policy, especially digital trade, have received far less attention. In recent decades, the Republicans defined themselves as the party of free trade. However, Trump-era policies challenged this long-standing position. Despite this shift, much of the party has remained committed to the “free trade” agenda championed by its primary donors, including Wall Street, major agribusinesses, energy conglomerates and global manufacturing firms. – On Digital Trade: Will Trump 2.0 Continue to Break from Neoliberalism? – Centre for International Governance Innovation
US – Colombia
(Diana Roy – Council on Foreign Relations)
Recent tensions over U.S. deportation flights could signal a new, uneasy chapter in the long-running partnership between Washington and Bogotá. – U.S.-Colombia Relations | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Indo Pacific
(IFRI)
Under the Trump II administration, US strategy in the Indo-Pacific is likely to be part of a bipartisan continuum, marked by strategic competition with China. The emphasis will be on economic pressure, notably via new trade sanctions, and increased military and technological engagement to counter Beijing. Washington’s allies and partners in the region, such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Australia, will continue to be mobilized to strengthen their posture against China, while pressure to increase their military spending and purchase US armaments will continue. – The Indo-Pacific and Trump II. In Uncle Sam’s brutal embrace | Ifri
US – Russia – Europe
(Seth G. Jones, Seamus P. Daniels – Center for Strategic & International Studies)
Russia’s continuing conventional war in Ukraine, increase in sabotage and subversive activities in Europe, and threats of nuclear escalation pose a serious and long-term challenge to U.S., European, and international security. While the United States needs to press its European allies to increase their defense spending and capabilities, the United States also needs to maintain a resilient—and sustainable—long-term presence in Europe that is designed to deter Russian aggression and, if deterrence fails, fight and win a great power war. – Deterring Russia: U.S. Military Posture in Europe
