From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Africa; Iceland; India-UK; Iraq; Israel-Hezbollah-Lebanon; Latin America-Narcosubmarines; Organised Crime-Sanctions; Sudan; Syria-Israel; Undersea Cables-Baltic Sea Nations; US Climate Action; US Counter-Terrorism Strategy; US-G20; US-Ukraine; Venezuela-US
Africa
(David Lubin – Chatham House) The African Union aims to set up an African Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) in Mauritius next year. This, it says, is needed to counteract the anti-African bias that it detects among the ‘big 3’ rating agencies – Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s – who dominate the analysis of default risk by sovereign and corporate borrowers. The AU’s claim is that these agencies, lacking any meaningful physical presence in the region, exercise judgments about African countries’ creditworthiness which ignore local conditions, and which value austerity over policies that ‘may promote growth’. The big rating agencies, not to mention global capital markets, are by no means perfect. Yet setting up AfCRA is the wrong way of responding to that imperfection. The views that AfCRA will express about African creditworthiness are likely to be more optimistic than those of the ‘big 3’, and will be questionable for exactly that reason. The initiative won’t ‘level the playing field’, as its supporters claim. Instead, the chances are that it will be seen as an effort to shift the goalposts. – Why an African Credit Rating Agency isn’t a good idea for the region’s borrowers | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Iceland
(Charlie Edwards – IISS) Iceland’s geostrategic location, once a source of security, is now the main cause of its vulnerability to external threats. NATO’s 1.5% defence-spending target, dedicated to resilience, provides Reykjavik with an opportunity to turn its civil-defence culture into a more formal national-security strategy backed by sustained funding. – Small state, big exposure: Iceland’s new national-security strategy
India – UK
(Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, Saurav Parmer – IISS) The signing of the India–UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which has been under negotiation for three and a half years, is emblematic of a push to further defence-industrial collaboration between the two countries. – India–UK defence industry ties: what lies ahead?
Iraq
(Khairuldeen Makhzoomi – The Washington Institute) In a situation that captures the tragedy of Iraq’s modern political life, ballot boxes no longer reflect the will of the people. They have instead become a legal facade for an Iran-backed project designed to perpetuate Iraq’s fragmentation and drain its institutions by channeling political, economic, and security resources toward Iran-aligned militias and political actors, consolidating their power at the expense of the Iraqi state. The preliminary results of the 2025 parliamentary election reveal that armed militias and their affiliated political actors have consolidated power, successfully translating their battlefield dominance into substantial parliamentary influence. This outcome sets the stage for “legitimacy laundering,” as militias now operate within formal political structures, potentially shaping government formation and policy to protect their interests and extend their control over Iraq’s political and security institutions. – Pro-Iran Militias Are the Big Winners in Iraq’s Election | The Washington Institute
Israel – Hezbollah – Lebanon
(The Soufan Center) An Israeli attack on Sunday killed one of Hezbollah’s top leaders, threatening to unravel a November 2024 ceasefire that has kept most of the Lebanese population out of the crossfire. Hezbollah has been rebuilding its missile and drone arsenal, but its capacity to retaliate is limited by continued military weakness and pressure from Beirut to avoid embroiling Lebanon in another war against Israel. The attack will further aggravate tensions between Beirut and Washington over the slow pace and modest scale of the Lebanese government’s efforts to disarm the group. The Trump administration’s cancellations last week of a high-profile visit from the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) commander will set back U.S. efforts to assist and empower the LAF to demobilize Hezbollah. – Israeli Escalation Against Hezbollah Puts Fragile Lebanon Ceasefire in Doubt – The Soufan Center
Latin America – Narcosubmarines
(Commander Victor González, Commander Lenin Naranjo and Jennifer Scotland – RUSI) Semi-submersible vessels, often referred to as ‘narcosubmarines’, have become a convenient and effective means for Latin American transnational criminal networks to transport narcotics such as cocaine to international markets. In July, the Colombian Navy reported that 10 semi-submersibles had been detected across Latin America in the first half of 2025 alone, though this likely represents only a small fraction of those in operation. In recent years, these vessels have been detected increasingly further afield. In 2019, a semi-submersible from Brazil was discovered in Europe for the first time, proving their ability to complete transatlantic crossings. Since then, several have been intercepted off the Iberian Peninsula. In March, an empty vessel washed ashore in Sierra Leone, indicating the use of semi-submersibles to move drugs from South America to West Africa. They have even been detected in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, bound for markets in Australia and New Zealand, some 4,000 miles from their point of departure in Colombia. – Uncrewed and Under the Radar: How AUVs Transform Drug Smuggling | Royal United Services Institute
Organised Crime – Sanctions
(Elijah Glantz, Cathy Haenlein and Anton Moiseienko – RUSI) In July 2025, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office announced the UK’s first use of targeted sanctions against people-smuggling networks facilitating illegal migration to the UK. The announcement was billed as heralding the use of ‘innovative foreign policy approaches’ as part of the ‘world’s first’ sanctions regime of its nature. Only months later, in September, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen vowed to follow suit: We need a new system of sanctions specifically targeted at people smugglers and traffickers. To freeze their assets. To restrict their ability to move around. To cut off their profits. People smuggling is a horrible, criminal business, and no smuggler should be allowed to get away with it in Europe. – Disrupting Organised Crime: If You Can’t Beat Them, Sanction Them? | Royal United Services Institute
Sudan
(Rama Yade – Atlantic Council) Last week, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Sudan “has become the most violent place on Earth” and that he and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had talked about the United States using its influence to “bring an immediate halt to what is taking place in Sudan.”. Such a statement comes after unproductive attempts by Washington to mediate the conflict. It also isn’t clear how the president would bring a halt to the situation, since both sides in the fighting are supported by US partners. But Trump is waking up to the reality of what is happening in Sudan—and he’s not the only one. On October 27 this year, two and a half years into the Sudanese civil war, the international community seemed to finally grasp that a genocide was unfolding in front of its eyes. After enduring an eighteen-month blockade marked by relentless drone strikes, the city of El Fasher, the final major urban center in Sudan’s North Darfur state outside the grip of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), was overrun. The RSF is the paramilitary faction that has been at war with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023. – El Fasher is only the latest wake-up call to the genocide unfolding in Sudan – Atlantic Council
Syria – Israel
(Charles Lister – Middle East Institute) In less than a year, this Syrian transitional government has received official visits in Damascus from more governments around the world than the Assads received in 53 years. Moreover, having previously faced the world’s biggest and most intricate sanctions regime since 1979, Syria has been granted sanctions relief at record-breaking speed. At no time in world history has a post-conflict country come close to matching the speed and scope of this rush to Damascus. The cause for this surge in engagement is the historic opportunity that the change in Syria represents. For too long, the phrase “what happens in Syria never stays in Syria” was associated with security threats, but the promise of turning that equation on its head and generating positive ripple effects emanating from Syria is a cause that has united the world – from the United States to Russia, China, and everywhere in between. This trend has two rare exceptions, however. In an unfortunate twist of irony, only two governments worldwide have taken a posture of opposing Syria’s transition: Israel and Iran. – Israel should give Syria a chance | Middle East Institute
Undersea Cables – Baltic Sea Nations
(Elisabeth Braw – Atlantic Council) In 2023 and 2024, many undersea cables and a pipeline in the Baltic Sea were cut or damaged in a string of suspicious incidents. Caught by surprise, the Baltic states’ initial response was improvised and uncoordinated. The AI boom and the energy transition are likely to increase the number of undersea cables, and governments can no longer assume they would only be damaged by accident. A NATO task force now leads multinational patrols and the EU has reached out to nations whose flag is used by vessels flouting maritime law to get dangerous ships de-flagged. – How the Baltic Sea nations have tackled suspicious cable cuts – Atlantic Council
US – Climate Action
(Chatham House) 68th United States Secretary of State John Kerry visited Chatham House on 25 November, following the COP 30 summit in Brazil, to discuss global action on climate change and the effect of US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement under President Donald Trump – who has repeatedly called climate change a ‘hoax’. During the event Kerry, the former US secretary of state and special presidential envoy for climate, expressed his concern about the effect of Trump administration policies on global climate action – and on China. – John Kerry says US under Trump becoming ‘denier, delayer and divider’ on climate change; criticizes ‘ineptitude’ in China policy | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US Counter-Terrorism Strategy
(Don Rassler, Nicholas Clark, Sean Morrow – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point) As U.S. counterterrorism strategy has shifted toward “risk-based prioritization” in an environment of constrained resources, terrorism risk assessment has become more critical, as the efficient allocation of resources becomes more crucial the margins for error decrease. Yet, existing approaches to risk assessment remain fragmented in both theory and practice. This article offers a primer and a bridge. It synthesizes a diverse literature on terrorism risk and provides a perspective on the strengths, limitations, and practical utility of various approaches, models, and concepts. Turning to practice, it provides a case study of the Department of Defense’s Joint Risk Analysis Methodology (JRAM) and proposes an operational Bayesian risk framework that integrates analyst priors, observable indicators, feasible courses of action, and explicit loss functions. This is complemented by a discussion focused on how data standards, automation, and modest AI applications can support rather than replace expert judgment. The conclusion outlines a future research agenda emphasizing bridges between individual and network-level risk instruments and systemic evaluation of past U.S. government risk assessment cases. It makes that case that if the United States is to remain serious about ‘risk-based’ counterterrorism, then terrorism risk assessment itself must be modernized conceptually, institutionally, and technologically to match the complexity and dynamism of the threat it seeks to understand. – Danger Zone: Terrorism Risk – Theory, Practice, and Evolution – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
US – G20
(Max Yoeli – Chatham House) The US boycott of the G20 summit in Johannesburg underlined how vital US engagement remains to the multilateral organization. The US absence meant that the summit and its joint declaration on ‘multilateral co-operation’ landed with minimal effect, despite enthusiasm from the host and some participating nations. The passing of the presidency to the US raises the question of whether Washington will seek to use its host status to reinvigorate a forum that it has been accused of obstructing and undermining over the last year. The US host year, culminating with a leaders’ summit at President Trump’s Doral golf club, will be far from a typical G20 presidency. It will be defined by the host nation being both a global anchor and a significant source of volatility. – How the US could leverage its G20 presidency after a year of opposition | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Ukraine
(Doug Klain – Atlantic Council) A new attempt by the United States to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine has sparked fresh hopes for an end to the largest European war since World War II, while also drawing accusations of echoing key Kremlin demands. Launched late last week, this peace initiative has provoked a particularly strong reaction from some of US President Donald Trump’s colleagues within the Republican Party. Trump’s team is now working with counterparts in Ukraine and the rest of Europe to agree on a potential common framework for a settlement with Russia. Despite tensions between Republicans in Congress worried by White House pressure on Kyiv, US efforts to end the war will only be strengthened by a more activist Congress that resumes legislating on foreign policy. – Trump’s latest Ukraine peace proposal sparks strong Republican reaction – Atlantic Council
Venezuela – US
(Maia Nikoladze – Atlantic Council) As the US military buildup increases near the shores of Venezuela, the United States could consider a measure to pressure Nicolás Maduro’s government without resorting to force: restricting its access to dollar-pegged stablecoins. Reports suggest that the Venezuelan government has been receiving oil payments in the stablecoin USDT since 2024—undermining the sanctions the Trump administration placed on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company and central bank in 2019. This method resembles sanctions evasion schemes used by other heavily sanctioned states, including Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and it merits a strong and coordinated US policy response. – How Venezuela uses crypto to sell oil—and what the US should do about it – Atlantic Council
