Belarus – Venezuela
(Dmitry Bolkunets – The Jamestown Foundation) The January 2 arrest of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces makes Belarus’s economic and ideological cooperation with Venezuela less stable. Maduro’s ouster may leave the Belarusian regime without a key partner in Latin America and raise acute concerns over the loyalty of its own security apparatus. The once-celebrated Belarus–Venezuela partnership peaked under Hugo Chávez but deteriorated under Maduro, with bilateral trade plunging from $580 million in 2012 to $2 million by 2026. Energy swaps, oil ventures, and joint construction projects devolved into unpaid debts and half-finished projects. The failure of Caracas’s air defenses and reports of elite collusion highlight Minsk’s fear that Western pressure, combined with internal fractures, could destabilize its entrenched authoritarian rule. – Maduro’s Ouster Creates Existential Crisis for Lukashenka – Jamestown
China
(Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Leon Li, Suyash Desai, Truly Tinsley, Linda Yang, Feifei Hung – CSIS) Over the last few years, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has waged an internal political war within his own military, conducting unprecedented purges of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Due to the opaque nature of China’s political system, there has not previously been a systematic assessment of these purges. To shed light on the scope and impact of the PLA purges, the CSIS China Power Project constructed the CSIS Database of Chinese Military Purges, which contains detailed information on over 100 PLA senior officers who have been purged or potentially purged since 2022. This report summarizes key insights from that dataset and reveals that the PLA purges are far more extensive than previously understood. – The Purges Within China’s Military Are Even Deeper Than You Think | ChinaPower Project
Environmental Crime
(Cathy Haenlein- RUSI) Environmental crime is one of the world’s most lucrative criminal markets, generating vast proceeds while driving biodiversity loss and compounding climate and security risks. Across a fractured planet, it acts as a threat multiplier – distorting governance, deepening fragility and allowing criminal networks to permeate licit economies and state structures. This week in Vienna, states are debating whether to reinforce the UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) with an additional protocol on environmental crime – in an effort to better mitigate these threats. As negotiations gather pace, a critical but under-examined question comes into focus: what would such a protocol mean for efforts to follow the money flows behind transnational environmental offending? – Environmental Crime: Could a New Protocol Help Us Follow the Money? | Royal United Services Institute
Europe – Russia
(Laurie Bristow KCMG – RUSI) Should European countries resume dialogue with Putin? Some European leaders support the idea; others are opposed. The reasons for this split are fundamental, and reflect underlying questions about Europe’s security. As Putin’s war drags on into its fifth year, this article sets out key considerations for European governments deliberating their interests. It is often said that all wars end in a negotiation. That is not quite true. Some wars end with the capitulation of one side and victory for the other – this is what Putin wants from his war against Ukraine and his negotiations with Trump. Some wars do not end cleanly but drag on for years. This is what we are likely to get: maybe some kind of ceasefire but one that leads (intentionally on Putin’s part) to a situation of neither war nor peace. – Should Europe Start Talking to Russia? | Royal United Services Institute
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced a large-scale anti-immigration campaign on February 18, pledging to reduce illegal migration to zero, while new labor regulations tighten controls on foreign workers amid rising migration under Georgian Dream’s rule. Public concerns over the immigration focus on large-scale Arab-funded real estate projects near Tbilisi and Batumi, which critics warn could shift Georgia’s demographic balance, fuel “Arabization” fears, and obscure opaque government agreements. Despite nationalist rhetoric emphasizing sovereignty and identity, Georgian Dream continues accommodating Russian and Arab investors, revealing tensions between populist anti-immigration messaging, economic dependence on foreign capital, and demographic concerns. – Georgian Dream Intensifies Anti-Immigration Rhetoric – Jamestown
Mexico
(The Soufan Center) One of the most prominent drug lords in Mexico, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as ‘El Mencho,’ was killed on Sunday after passing away from the injuries he sustained during his capture by the Mexican military. The immediate response to El Mencho’s death included road blockades, shootings, and arson attacks that spread to over 20 states in Mexico. The long-term challenges of El Mencho’s death are daunting and include the possibility of further horizontal escalation in Mexico and the U.S., as well as infighting and intensified intercartel competition. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to have its first Mexico-based matches in June, including in Jalisco State, which may become a target of any retaliatory action by the violent drug trafficking cartels. – The Security Implications of Decapitating the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación – The Soufan Center
Russia
(Luke Rodeheffer – The Jamestown Foundation) A Kremlin directive takes effect on March 1, allowing the Russian Communications Authority to reroute national internet traffic in the event of a cyberattack or crisis. This announcement comes amid widespread complaints about a growing lack of reliability in internet connections and legislation that shields telecommunications providers from responsibility for service disconnections caused by Federal Security Service (FSB) actions. The scope of Russia’s emerging state system for the prevention and liquidation of computer attacks (GosSOPKA) continues to expand to include all state information technology (IT) systems, including municipal agencies. – Russian Directive Expands Internet Control – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine (and beyond)
(Jaroslava Barbieri – Chatham House) The latest round of US-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine concluded without a significant breakthrough. While the parties reached near-consensus over a ceasefire monitoring mechanism, they remain deadlocked over the key issue of territory. Kyiv maintains that a comprehensive ceasefire must precede any peace agreement or elections. Meanwhile, Moscow insists that Ukraine must cede the entire Donbas region – including territories Russia has failed to secure militarily – before fighting can stop. Moscow has managed to convince US President Trump’s team that it is engaging in peace talks ‘in good faith’ and that ceding Ukrainian-held territory is the only path to a lasting peace. This has added pressure on Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy to finalize a peace settlement and establish a timeline for national elections by the summer. Increasingly aware of Ukraine’s importance to European security, Europe has stepped up to help Kyiv withstand US pressure for a quick deal – which would only embolden the Kremlin. – Europe is helping Ukraine resist a US push for peace at any price | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Seth G. Jones, Riley McCabe, Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, Romina Bandura, Emma Curtis, Caitlin Welsh, Otto Svendsen, Max Bergmann, Mark F. Cancian, and Chris H. Park – CSIS) Four years ago, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, resulting in the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. Initially conceived as a rapid operation to overthrow Kyiv, the conflict has evolved into a prolonged, high-intensity war that is reshaping European security. Despite substantial human and economic costs, Ukraine has maintained its defense with sustained Western support, while Russia has mobilized its economy and society for an extended confrontation. Although the war remains unresolved and significant uncertainties persist, its fourth anniversary provides a moment to reflect on its profound impacts on regional security, transatlantic cohesion, military technology, and the global balance of power. – Russia-Ukraine War in 10 Charts
(Caitlin Welsh, Emma Curtis, Joseph Glauber, Antonina Broyaka, and Vitalii Dankevych – CSIS) The immediate impacts of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Ukraine’s agriculture sector were abrupt and widespread. Though Ukrainian producers have demonstrated remarkable resilience in wartime, evidence of long-term reductions in Ukraine’s grain exports has emerged. Russia’s grain exports surged early in the war, but today, weather and labor shortages are threatening Russia’s agricultural output—and its ability to utilize its food exports for global influence. Russia’s fertilizer exports confer additional economic and political advantage for Moscow, with fertilizer exports variably affected since 2022. How are the dynamics of war affecting global agriculture markets and global food security? How can Ukraine’s allies best support its agricultural recovery and long-term growth? – The Russia-Ukraine War and Global Food Security: Impacts Four Years Later
(Jack Watling – RUSI) As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year both Russia and Ukraine are under increasing strain. For Ukraine the question is whether it can bring about a mutually hurting stalemate leading to a ceasefire. For Russia, the plan remains to exhaust Ukraine’s capacity to resist. Under current conditions, however, it is more dangerous in both Kyiv and the Kremlin to stop fighting. – Russia’s Aggression in Ukraine Will Persist Through 2026 | Royal United Services Institute
US
(Jennifer Lind – Chatham House) ‘Are you tired of winning?’. President Donald Trump isn’t, he said on Tuesday night in his 2026 State of the Union address, drawing smiles from Vice President JD Vance and Speaker Mike Johnson, seated on the dais behind him. Despite the setback inflicted by a recent US Supreme Court ruling, Trump left no doubt that he intends to continue using tariffs aggressively – in his words, to win some more. – Trump’s tariff strategy is alive and well | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Atlantic Council) Confused about the past week’s tariff news? You’re not alone. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on most global imports despite previously announcing on social media that the levies would be set at 15 percent. This latest tariff announcement comes on the heels of the US Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday that the president does not have the authority to impose import duties under of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). It’s made for a busy few days for the Trump Tariff Tracker. But we’re left with several burning questions about how this will all play out. – Eight questions (and expert answers) on what’s next for US tariff policy – Atlantic Council
