From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Armenia-Azerbaijan, ASEAN, China, Death Penalty, Democratic Republic of the Congo, European Union-US, Germany, Haiti, Japan, NATO-European Union, Philippines, Poland-Slovakia, Protection of Civilians, Russia, Russia’s Ukraine War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), South Asia, Sudan, TAPI pipeline, UK, US, US-Israel, Uzbekistan
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Vasif Huseynov – The Jamestown Foundation) Armenia and Azerbaijan remain at an impasse in their ongoing peace process, facing the conditions of withdrawing international lawsuits and agreeing on a ban against third-party military forces along their border.
Armenia’s constitutional claims over Karabakh and the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group remain sensitive topics. Azerbaijan insists on amending Armenia’s constitution to eliminate future territorial disputes, while Armenia faces legal and political hurdles in making such changes. Disagreements over reopening transportation links further hinder the peace process. Azerbaijan demands an “unimpeded” land passage to its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Meghri region, while Armenia insists on controlled transit. This unresolved dispute continues to block progress toward a final agreement. – Stalemate Persists in the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process – Jamestown
ASEAN
(Anthony Milner – East Asia Forum) ASEAN, now under Malaysian leadership, is well-equipped to manage international challenges in 2025 due to its vibrant economy, strategic political toolkit and extensive foreign investment, including from countries such as the United States, Japan, South Korea and China. Though facing risks that may affect its economic advantages, including potential tariffs imposed by the United States that may harm China–ASEAN trade, ASEAN’s practice of multifaceted engagement, historical experiences and its emphasis on inclusive relations will aid the region in navigating an increasingly complex global landscape. – ASEAN adapts and advances as global politics shift | East Asia Forum
China
(Frederick Kempe – Atlantic Council) China has had a remarkably good month. While US President Donald Trump’s first weeks in office have his allies reeling and Americans uncertain as they sort out his torrent of executive orders, Beijing is orchestrating a masterclass of reinvention and resolve. It all began in late January with artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek’s surprising debut, which jolted US stock markets. That was followed this past week by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s public mending of fences with his country’s sidelined business elites, and an ongoing surge in Chinese capital-market prices, driven by tech stocks. And that has been accompanied by a surprisingly cordial beginning with the new Trump administration despite Beijing’s unsettling military assertiveness. – China’s Year of the Snake is off to a good start, thanks in part to Trump – Atlantic Council
(Interesting Engineering) China has officially begun construction on its first nuclear reactor unit of the year with the pouring of first concrete at the Lufeng Nuclear Power Plant in Guangdong province. The milestone, completed on Monday, marks the official start of the plant’s No. 1 reactor, which utilizes the CAP1000 third-generation pressurized water reactor (PWR) design. According to China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), the CAP1000 design incorporates modular construction, digital building technologies, and automated welding to improve safety and efficiency. – China begins construction of 52 billion kWh output nuclear reactor
(Michael Pettis – Carnegie China) On Monday, February 17, Chinese President Xi Jinping set off a frisson of economic excitement by speaking at a high-level symposium of private sector entrepreneurs. The first meeting of its kind since 2018, it was attended by some of the leading lights of China’s technology and emerging sectors, with notable names including Huawei’s Ren Zhengfei, BYD’s Wang Chuanfu, Will Semiconductor’s Yu Renrong, Unitree Robotics’ Wang Xingxing, and Xiaomi’s Lei Jun. – What Does Xi’s Meeting With Entrepreneurs Mean for the Private Sector? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Death Penalty
(UN News) International efforts to eradicate the death penalty came into sharp focus at the Human Rights Council on Tuesday, where UN human rights chief Volker Türk decried a substantial increase in global executions in the last two years. – UN rights chief decries substantial rise in death penalty executions | UN News
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News) Around 700,000 people were forced to leave Goma, one of the biggest cities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) when it fell in January to rebels, known as M23. With the conflict spreading, many of them are on the move again but a return home is no guarantee of safety. – ‘We’re afraid to return home’: Uprooted again, Congolese civilians face hunger and more insecurity | UN News
European Union – US
(Rudy Ruitenberg – Defense News) Europe can build up most of the critical defense enablers needed to deter or defeat Russia without U.S. support within five years, provided the political will to invest is there, according to security researchers and experts surveyed by Defense News. European countries currently rely on the U.S. within the NATO alliance for a range of supporting capabilities and assets that allow combat forces to operate effectively. That dependency looks increasingly precarious as U.S. President Donald Trump signals willingness to abandon America’s long-time allies and align with Russia. – Mind the gaps: Europe’s to-do list for defense without the US
Germany
(Marcus Colla – Lowy The Interpreter) “I never thought I’d have to say something like that on a TV program.” So sighed Friedrich Merz, Germany’s prospective next Chancellor, in a post-election discussion last night. World events, he observed with some pain, had led to the dissolution of the old Atlanticist bonds on which post-war Germany had built its security, its worldview, and its identity. In the election Merz had just won, “the interventions from Washington were no less dramatic and drastic and ultimately outrageous than the interventions we have seen from Moscow”. It had thus become evident to him “that the Americans, at least that part of the Americans in this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”. There now existed no alternative other than “step by step achieving independence from the USA”. – New chancellor, new challenges – same old Germany? | Lowy Institute
Haiti
(UN News) More than 6,000 people in Haiti have been forced from their homes by gang violence in almost a month, hampering aid efforts by humanitarian agencies, the United Nations warned on Tuesday. – Ukraine: Post-war reconstruction set to cost $524 billion | UN News
Japan
(Willem Thorbecke – East Asia Forum) The Japanese yen’s depreciation, reaching its weakest level in over half a century, has had various impacts on the country’s economy, including increased import prices and fiscal challenges, despite efforts by the Bank of Japan to control inflation and attempts by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to mitigate raised household costs with stimulus measures. But the weak yen has also positively influenced areas such as tourism and international company profitability, and with its economic resilience, advanced goods and services and diversification, Japan remains optimistic about facing numerous challenges in 2025. – Strong reactions to a weak yen shake Japan’s economy | East Asia Forum
NATO – European Union
(Maurizio Geri – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Recent policy shifts in Washington mean NATO’s June summit in The Hague will undoubtedly focus on support for Ukraine and member states’ defense spending. The alliance, however, needs not only a military strategy but also a coherent political strategy based on the principles of “‘ends, ways, and means”: clear objectives, efficient methods, and sufficient resources. – Ends, Ways, and Means | German Marshall Fund of the United States
Philippines
(Josiah Bagayas – East Asia Forum) Sara Duterte became the first Philippine vice president impeached after 240 lawmakers backed complaints of fund misuse, unexplained wealth, alleged murder plots and betrayal of public trust. The trial could significantly impact Duterte’s political future and the nation’s stability. This impeachment also raises broader concerns about accountability, partisanship and the political weaponisation of legal processes, fuelling further division and uncertainty in the country’s leadership. – Duterte’s impeachment and the spectacle of Philippine politics | East Asia Forum
Poland – Slovakia
(Jaroslaw Adamowski – Defense News) Poland and Slovakia have signed a letter of intent to jointly produce ammunition and cooperate on the procurement of armored vehicles, tank, and air defense weapons. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, Polish deputy prime minister and defense minister, and his Slovak counterpart, Robert Kaliňák, inked an agreement that effect during a meeting in Warsaw on Monday. – Poland, Slovakia team up for ammunition, weapon purchases
Protection of Civilians
(Shane Goetz – Stimson Center) Despite the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2417 six years ago, conflict continues to drive acute food insecurity around the globe. From Gaza to Sudan, humanitarian access constraints and infrastructure destruction have led to starvation crises. These patterns echo the suffering seen in northern Ethiopia, where the failure to prevent mass starvation in the 2020-2022 Ethiopia-Tigray conflict revealed critical limitations in UNSC Resolution 2417’s implementation. Moving forward, the international community must adapt and learn from its failures in Ethiopia and develop stronger atrocity prevention and accountability tools to break these cycles of mass starvation. – Preventing Starvation Crimes: Lessons Learned from Tigray • Stimson Center
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian officials warn that the increasing crime rates in Russia are likely to continue rising as more soldiers return home from its war against Ukraine, creating a problem worse than when the Soviet veterans returned from Afghanistan in the 1990s. The number of veterans from Russia’s war against Ukraine is far greater than the number of veterans of the Soviet-Afghan war, and many have a criminal past, are better armed, and have expectations that are likely to be dashed. In response, the Kremlin will likely increase repression, but it may also decide to keep its military busy with new aggression abroad to avoid the problems the return of veterans would pose at home. – Russia Faces Upsurge in Crime as Veterans Return from Ukraine – Jamestown
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia’s liquid natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe grew in 2024 by 4 percent, despite heavy sanctions. Russia plans to continue this trend and capture 20 to 25 percent of the global LNG market by 2035. To achieve this goal, Russia has created two strategies: a maritime strategy aimed at increasing global exports and a continental strategy to increase exports across Eurasia, including related services, know-how, and technologies. Moscow is adapting to sanctions and competition from the United States, which are currently the primary obstacles determining whether Russia becomes one of the most dominant players in the global LNG market by 2035 and beyond. – Russia Navigates Challenges to Achieve Optimistic Post-2035 LNG Strategy – Jamestown
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is altering its narratives on the confrontation with the West and its propaganda campaign on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in response to recent U.S.-initiated diplomatic activity. Russian state media has been instructed to avoid criticizing U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and instead are emphasizing the divergence of values between the United States and Europe. The Kremlin is attempting to exercise strategic patience and gain an advantage in peace talks by refusing to modify its position or provide new concessions as it focuses on fostering relations with the United States and partners in the Middle East while sidelining Europe and Ukraine. – Moscow Changes War Rhetoric but Stays War Course – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(UN News) The total cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is estimated at $524 billion (€506 billion) over the next decade, according to a new study published on Tuesday. – Ukraine: Post-war reconstruction set to cost $524 billion | UN News
(Yuliya Bidenko – Carnegie Europe) Much of the international attention this past week has been on the war of words between U.S. and Ukrainian presidents Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, as they have gotten ever more personal and tough on each other. But it is Ukrainian society that is showing remarkable signs of resilience, despite experiencing war fatigue and reeling from the increased pressure the United States, one of its most trusted allies, is exerting. – How Ukraine Remains Resilient, Three Years On | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Dimitar Bechev – Carnegie Europe) Three years of war have taken an enormous toll on Ukraine. Journalists have been chronicling daily the wanton destruction of human lives, housing, and infrastructure. What is often overlooked, however, is the conflict’s devastating impact on the Black Sea. The war has accelerated the degradation of the marine environment, a long-standing issue in this part of Europe. And the war is posing new risks, which will persist for decades. Cleaning up the Black Sea should be an urgent priority for the EU and countries in the region. – Tackling the Russia-Ukraine War’s Environmental Damage in the Black Sea | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
South Asia
(Rachel Stevens – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Since President Donald Trump announced his intention to close USAID, foreign aid has dominated public debates about development, global inequalities, security concerns and fears about the influence of China. Rather than adding to this saturated debate, this analysis explores a different question: how has development assistance benefitted recipient nations, particularly Australia’s South Asian neighbours? – Breaking Down The Foreign Aid Behemoth: The Uneven Development Paths of South Asian Nations – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Sudan
(UN Security Council) Today morning, the Security Council is expected to receive the regular 120-day briefing on the situation in Sudan pursuant to resolution 2715 of 1 December 2023 followed by closed consultations. Director of the Operations and Advocacy Division at the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Edem Wosornu is expected to brief in the open chamber, while Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra will brief in consultations. – Sudan: Briefing and Consultations : What’s In Blue : Security Council Report
TAPI pipeline
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Turkmenistan is eager to accelerate the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline to sell its natural resources to the energy-starved countries of Pakistan and India. Due to regional conflicts and instability, the project has been stalled for over 30 years. With the Taliban government’s recent assurances toward the pipeline’s security, construction seems ready to start in earnest. India, however, is concerned about the gas price and the pipeline’s path through Pakistan, causing uncertainty in the project’s completion. – TAPI Pipeline to Remain Failure Without India and Pakistan’s Participation – Jamestown
UK
(Tim Martin – Breaking Defense) In a bid to counter Russia’s “menace,” UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer announced today that British defense spending will be increased to 2.5 percent GDP by 2027. Addressing lawmakers, Starmer also pledged to raise the bar further by committing to a 3 percent GDP target by 2034. Britain currently spends around 2.3 percent GDP on its military. The new spending plan, funded by foreign aid cuts, marks the “biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War,” according to Starmer. In simple terms, London will spend an additional £13.4 billon ($17 billion) annually on defense from 2027. – Russian ‘menace’ prompts UK defense spending uplift to 2.5 percent GDP by 2027 – Breaking Defense
US
(Roger W. Ferguson Jr. – Council on Foreign Relations) Since assuming office, the Donald Trump administration has announced wide-ranging tariffs to bolster U.S. economic and national security. Most recently, President Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports and has threatened reciprocal tariffs on other countries. The speed and scale of those announcements have surprised many political commentators. – The Intellectual Origins of Trump’s Economic Policies | Council on Foreign Relations
(Ebenezer Obadare – Council on Foreign Relations) Three years ago, Washington was busy marshaling an alliance of the world’s democracies against Russia. Today, having voted with the same Russia against a UN resolution condemning it for the invasion of Ukraine, it has done a full about face. To put this in its proper context, the United States has now assumed the same position as its African bête noire, South Africa, which, whatever its other deficiencies, has at least its consistency going for it. – Uncle Sam Goes Rogue | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Israel
(Blaise Misztal and Ari Cicurel – Breaking Defense) A shipment of 1,800 MK-84 2,000-pound bombs arrived in Israel on Feb. 16, several weeks after President Donald Trump announced the end of a months-long freeze of critical US weapons deliveries to Israel. But there are still more weapons that Israel needs stuck in US bureaucratic processes. To fulfill his promise that these weapons “are now on their way,” Trump should use his emergency authority to push past remaining roadblocks. – President Trump must use every tool to speed up arms for Israel – Breaking Defense
Uzbekistan
(Galiya Ibragimova – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) In Uzbekistan, there is suddenly talk of a transition of power, even though President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has been in office for a mere nine years: the blink of an eye by Central Asian standards. The speculation began after an assassination attempt on former presidential adviser Komil Allamjonov the day after he presented Mirziyoyev with a report on the growing struggle for power within the elite. The finger has been pointed at the president’s son-in-law Otabek Umarov, who was deputy head of Mirziyoyev’s personal security service for many years. Allegedly, Umarov has his sights on his father-in-law’s seat, and ordered the hit on Allamjonov because he posed a threat to those plans. – Assassination Attempt Scandal Exposes Fragility of Uzbekistan’s Regime | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
