From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about: Armenia-Azerbaijan, Belarus-Europe, China, China-Iran-Russia, Europe, India-Europe, Israel-Russia, Libya, Middle East, New Zealand-India, North Africa, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UK, US-China-India, US-India, US-Japan
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Onnik James Krikorian – The Jamestown Foundation) Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of a long-awaited “Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations.” The announcement came unexpectedly from Baku and was confirmed soon after by Yerevan. Yerevan seeks to sign the agreement quickly, while Baku says that Armenia must first remove a controversial preamble in its constitution that refers to what amounts to territorial claims on the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast. The opposition in Armenia maintains that Azerbaijan will not sign the agreement if it believes that it can gain more concessions from Armenia. – Azerbaijan-Armenia Peace Deal Faces Hurdles – Jamestown
Belarus – Europe
(Ondrej Ditrych – European Union Institute for Security Studies) After three decades of Alexander Lukashenka’s rule, Belarus remains trapped between a ruthless dictatorship on the one hand, and Moscow’s increasingly suffocating embrace on the other. The EU must reinforce its commitment to the vision of a free, democratic, sovereign and independent Belarus with a clear path to EU membership. It also needs to make Belarus a part of the conversation on the future of security in Europe as efforts to end the fighting in Ukraine take shape. This Brief analyses recent domestic and geopolitical trends related to Belarus before proposing how the EU should recalibrate its policies in support of the democratic opposition, and vis-à-vis the regime. – Killing two birds with one stone: A free and independent Belarus will make Europe safer | European Union Institute for Security Studies
China
(Howard Wang, Jackson Smith, Cristina L. Garafola – RAND Corporation) Proliferated constellations in low earth orbit (LEO) have demonstrated significant battlefield utility in the Russia-Ukraine war and are likely to continue serving as an important component of space power in wartime. How Chinese leaders view these continued developments will have important implications for managing military escalation in space. The authors draw on open-source literature across the Chinese defense enterprise to assess People’s Liberation Army (PLA) perspectives of LEO as a warfighting domain and the systems being deployed in LEO. The authors highlight Starlink as an influential development shaping Chinese views of LEO to contextualize their findings. – Chinese Military Views of Low Earth Orbit: Proliferation, Starlink, and Desired Countermeasures | RAND
(William Piekos – Atlantic Council) As strategic competition between the United States and China intensifies, Washington and Beijing seek every possible advantage to gain an edge. In this environment, both countries are increasingly turning to economic statecraft—the use of economic coercion or inducement to pursue strategic goals—to advance their interests. Among these tools, economic coercion often garners the most attention, both as a preferred instrument of US policymakers and as a key driver of China’s expanding influence. However, this focus on coercion largely overlooks the strategic value of economic inducements, which serve as a powerful and affirmative means of cultivating influence. These positive measures enable the United States to leverage its economic strengths, advance its global interests, and support recipient countries—all while countering China with a more transparent, sustainable, and effective alternative. – How Beijing uses inducements as a tool of economic statecraft – Atlantic Council
China – Iran – Russia
(Richard Nephew – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) For all the hoopla that preceded it, the trilateral China-Iran-Russia meeting on Tehran’s nuclear program did not appear to generate anything of great significance. The joint statement issued after the March 15 Beijing gathering largely echoed previous such documents, from condemning “unlawful unilateral sanctions” against Iran to reiterating a mutual desire for a diplomatic solution. That said, the mere act of holding the meeting may have been the objective, to signal to the world that the three countries stand together. This show of unity could have immediate practical effects given the partial expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2025—including the “snapback” provision that permits the UN to reimpose full sanctions on Iran if a JCPOA participant triggers the mechanism. At the same time, the three governments still have diverging historical and strategic interests on a range of issues—differences that will not dissipate just because they hold a joint meeting and share friction with the United States. If Washington hopes to exploit these fault lines, however, it must properly understand them. – Leveraging the Gaps in Russia and China’s Complex Relations with Iran | The Washington Institute
Europe
(Carnegie Europe) Amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees, the EU is increasing its defense funding. Given the UK and Turkey’s significant military capabilities, should they be included in the union’s defense spending schemes? – Taking the Pulse: Should “Buy European” in Defense Spending Include the UK and Turkey? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Sophia Besch, Erik Brown – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine shocked Europe into the realization that war had returned to the continent, Europeans are now reeling from a second tremor: the United States may no longer be there to protect it. The reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. president shows that his first term was not an aberration. Trump’s extortionate, retribution-focused style of foreign policy, disdain for the transatlantic alliance, and apparent inclination to normalize relations with Russia could permanently damage the credibility of NATO in its current form. Europeans are now faced with the challenge of replacing the U.S. role as security guarantor for Europe and main military backer of Ukraine. They are ill prepared. The significant investments and force posture adjustments of the past few years assumed that Washington would continue to provide strategic leadership and military backup. Even those who advocated for more European autonomy did not prepare for an abrupt rupture. Europeans must not only spend drastically more money; they must also agree on how to spend it strategically and cooperatively. Will the EU step into the breach to lead this effort? Judging from a much-anticipated “White Paper for European Defense” and “ReArm Europe” proposal, it does not look like it. With these proposals, the European Commission (EC) signaled its willingness to essentially get out of the way of member state defense efforts, pledging to reduce bureaucracy around European defense market integration and make it easier for capitals to spend more money. It reiterated a commitment to strengthening Ukraine through increased military assistance and further integrating the Ukrainian defense industry into European initiatives. But the EC is careful not to overreach. In this moment of crisis, it keeps member states “in the driver’s seat.” Now they must deliver. – Who’s Going to Unite Europe on Defense? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
India – Europe
(Shreya Sinha – Vivekananda International Foundation) In a landmark visit to New Delhi last month, the European Commission and the College of Commissioners reinforced the strategic ties between the European Union and India, which led to the resumption of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement negotiations. Further, EAM Jaishankar’s visit to UK and Ireland this month concluded with a commitment to strengthen bilateral ties through economic and technological cooperation. Recent developments bring to the forefront opportunities and challenges of a growing India-Europe economic partnership amidst evolving geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. – India and Europe: A Growing Economic Partnership in a Changing World | Vivekananda International Foundation
Israel – Russia
(Ksenia Svetlova – Chatham House) Israel has consistently pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Russia. Even after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when most Western nations implemented comprehensive sanctions, Israel chose a more calibrated response and maintained working relations with Russia. The Israeli government argued this position was due to practical security considerations – particularly Russia’s significant military presence in Syria, where Israel regularly conducts operations against Iranian-linked targets – rather than ideological alignment with Moscow. – Israel’s complicated but strategic relationship with Russia could strengthen with Trump in the White House | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Libya
(Jonathan M. Winer – Middle East Institute) Endemic corruption in Libya continues to deter foreign investment, cripple public services, and erode trust in government. In the past year, Libya fell to its lowest-ever ranking in Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, tying for 173rd place with Yemen, Equatorial Guinea, and Eritrea — just four spots from the bottom. Similarly, the US Department of State’s 2024 foreign investment evaluation found that business licenses in Libya are typically granted through corruption and exploitation rather than objective criteria. The World Bank’s Global Indicators of Regulatory Governance has consistently given Libya a score of zero out of five, reflecting a system entirely bereft of transparency or accountability. – Illegal arrest and detention of Libyan Asset Recovery head reflects worsening Libyan corruption | Middle East Institute
Middle East
Israel has rejected the Arab plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, arguing that it does not explicitly require the disarmament of Gaza, fails to address the future of Hamas in the territory and facilitates the Palestinian Authority’s return. More significantly, the plan opposes displacement, while Israel seeks to implement Trump’s vision on this issue. Amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to secure a lasting ceasefire in Gaza, the United States may choose to engage with the Arab plan to promote regional stability in line with its strategic interests. In such a scenario, Israel is expected to push for modifications to certain provisions of the plan. Israel’s potential acceptance of the Arab reconstruction plan will likely depend on strong American and Western pressure, along with assurances that the initiative is limited to resolving the Gaza situation rather than serving as a broader Arab initiative to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. – Emirates Policy Center | Israel and the Arab Plan to Rebuild Gaza: Reasons for Rejection and Beyond
(The Soufan Center) The conflicting goals and narratives of Israel and Hamas have unraveled the two-month ceasefire in the Gaza conflict and left prospects for ending the war in doubt. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, pressured by hardline coalition partners, has resumed offensive operations in Gaza to try to force Hamas to return remaining hostages, yield power, and disarm. Hamas has rejected U.S. proposals to extend Phase One of the ceasefire, insisting on adhering to the January truce agreement, which stipulated proceeding to a permanent end to the war and Gaza reconstruction (Phases Two and Three). U.S. and regional diplomats will likely continue to try to develop proposals that might achieve Israeli, Hamas, and broad regional and global consensus and could be realistically implemented. – Can a Gaza Peace Plan be Resurrected? – The Soufan Center
New Zealand – India
(Harsh V. Pant, Pratnashree Basu – Observer Research Foundation) The visit of the Prime Minister of New Zealand, Christopher Luxon, to India in March 2025 marked his first trip to the country as head of government. Accompanied by one of the largest delegations ever to travel with a New Zealand prime minister (including ministers, senior business leaders, a group of prominent Kiwi Indians, and several parliamentarians), the six-day trip from March 16 to 21 is a significant step in advancing bilateral ties, particularly in maritime security and regional stability within the Indo-Pacific. – Why New Zealand Wants Better Ties With India – Despite China
North Africa
(Intissar Fakir – Middle East Institute) Countries around the world are increasingly prioritizing a strict definition of sovereignty and tending toward transactional diplomacy. This global trend is shaping North African policies as well, with those governments, just like many others, emphasizing sovereignty by pursuing bilateral negotiations over multilateral arrangements, prioritizing economic self-reliance and more flexible trade agreements, as well as seeking concrete short-term benefits rather than broader, more open-ended relationships. This shift is frustrating longstanding Western interests in the Maghreb; however, it need not mean the end of existing partnerships. Understanding the motivations behind North Africa’s “sovereignty-first” approach can help the United States and Europe build mutually beneficial and durable links with the region in this new reality. – Sovereignty first: Reshaping international cooperation in North Africa | Middle East Institute
Pakistan
(Farzana Shaikh – Chatham House) Baloch separatists hijacked a passenger train carrying more than 400 people travelling from Quetta to Peshawar on 11 March. The event sent shock waves across Pakistan and was strongly condemned by the United Nations as a ‘heinous terrorist act’. Responsibility for the attack was claimed by the militant Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union. The subsequent siege, near the Bolan Pass in a remote part of Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan ended – apparently without mass casualties – after a 36-hour stand-off between the hijackers and army special forces. But some lives were lost. According to Pakistani military sources, at least 31 people, including civilians and security personnel, as well as 33 militants, were killed in the action. However, the BLA has disputed these figures claiming that it took 214 hostages and killed them all. There are also conflicting reports about the army’s precise role in securing the release of the hostages, with evidence that the BLA had allowed women, children and the elderly to leave the train for prior to the fighting. – The hijacking of a train marks a watershed in the Balochistan insurgency | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Russia
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia is experiencing energy shortages and electricity generation problems exacerbated by its war against Ukraine, sanctions, and cryptocurrency mining. Russia’s electricity exports to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) significantly dropped in 2024 due to energy deficits in the Far East, and these regions are now considering importing electricity from the PRC to combat these shortages. The increased energy usage due to cryptocurrency mining has led to regional mining bans and new tariffs. Moscow views cryptocurrency as a tool to bypass sanctions, making it reluctant to establish a total ban. – Russian Energy Shortages Require Bans, Tariffs, and Purchasing Electricity From China – Jamestown
(Andrey Pertsev – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) A new type of Russian bureaucrat has emerged in recent years: those appointed by President Vladimir Putin to oversee certain agencies or sectors, and keep an eye on the officials formally in charge—even those who ostensibly enjoy the Kremlin’s trust. These “auditors” can now be found everywhere: from the Russian delegation conducting negotiations with the United States to the Defense Ministry, the Emergencies Ministry, and the presidential administration. – Auditing the Auditors: Does Putin Trust Anyone Now? | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Saudi Arabia
(Neil Quilliam – Chatham House) Saudi Arabia is hosting bilateral talks between Russian and US officials this week to discuss prospects for a partial ceasefire in Ukraine and the safety of shipping in the Black Sea. The talks, taking place in Riyadh’s opulent Ritz-Carlton Hotel, come after the Saudis hosted a Ukrainian delegation on Sunday, and highlight the kingdom’s growing role as a host for important international negotiations. Riyadh is hosting the talks at the request of US president Donald Trump, who has thrust the kingdom into the diplomatic limelight. Whether the current Ukraine talks succeed or fail, Arab states and their populations will now expect Saudi Arabia to play a more dynamic role in resolving regional conflicts and find a solution to the Israel-Palestine issue. – Ukraine talks show Saudi Arabia is now a major diplomatic player | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
UK
(Marion Messmer, Olivia O’Sullivan – Chatham House) The Trump administration’s volatile approach to its allies has forced the UK to reconsider fundamental pillars of its defence policy, including whether it can rely on the US. This extends even to the UK’s nuclear deterrent, with many questioning whether the UK needs a nuclear weapons system that is less dependent on the US for maintenance and support. Unlike most US allies in NATO, the UK is officially a nuclear weapons state, and therefore less reliant on Washington’s nuclear extended deterrence guarantee. It has its own nuclear weapons system, Trident, which is based in Britain and ostensibly operates independently. – The UK’s nuclear deterrent relies on US support – but there are no other easy alternatives | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – China – India
(Harsh V. Pant, Kalpit A Mankikar – Observer Research Foundastion) The Trajectory of the Trump administration’s relationship with China is slowly emerging through the din of the trade war. During Trump’s first term, tariffs were levied on Chinese imports to address the issue of equitable market access for American businesses. The US and China signed a trade deal in 2020 under which Beijing agreed to buy more. Yet, Washington’s trade deficit in goods with Beijing stood at $295.4 billion in 2024, an increase of 5.8 per cent compared to the previous year. Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policy unveiled in January makes it clear that his administration’s priority will be to review whether or not China adhered to its commitments under the agreement signed in January 2020. Additionally, Trump’s policy manifesto aims to investigate Beijing’s practices related to transfer of technology, violation of intellectual property, routing exports through third countries, discriminatory trade practices. The document seeks to undertake an economic and security review of the industrial and manufacturing base to ascertain if Washington needs to adjust imports that imperil national security. There is also an impetus to examine the export-control framework that restricts sale of technology to “strategic adversaries”. – Trading in Security
US – India
(Harsh V. Pant,| Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) The broader Indian populace may have missed the nuances of President Donald Trump’s address on March 4 to the U.S. Congress, but his speech carried implications, both implicit and explicit, for India. First, the United States’ resolutely domestic orientation has impacted the world like never before. Second, the Trump administration’s unforgiving and at times incoherent policy choices since the inauguration have challenged allies, partners, and friends alike, forcing them to make adjustments of their own. At the forefront of this change are the administration’s trade policies in North America, specifically with its neighbors, Canada and Mexico, as well as a fundamental reversal on Ukraine. These radical swings in foreign policy serve as strong cautionary tales for countries that remain relatively unscathed by the Trump administration’s rapid policy salvos, such as India. – Trump Through Delhi’s Lens
US – Japan
(Abhishek Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) US allies in Europe are growing anxious as the Trump phenomenon has struck the world like a lightning bolt once again. The focus is not solely on Europe, however; Trump’s campaign has turned its attention to US allies in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Japan, calling for diplomatic and economic reciprocity. This demand for reciprocity with Japan seems peculiar, especially in light of the two leaders’ February bilateral meeting, during which they pledged to work towards “a new golden age for US-Japan relations.” However, remarks and events since the meeting have cast a shadow of uncertainty, indicating that things are not going well, regardless of the official bilateral statement emphasising friendliness. – All’s not well between the US and Japan amid Trump’s return to power
