From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(David Willima – Institute for Security Studies) The High Seas Treaty adopted in June 2023 is a landmark achievement for ocean governance, not least because it was finalised at a time of deepening global divisions. The United Nations (UN) agreement aims to protect marine biodiversity in waters beyond national jurisdiction, which cover nearly half of the Earth’s surface. (…) But the success of any international treaty depends on the commitment of enough states to ratify and implement its provisions. Sixty ratifications are required for the High Seas Treaty to enter into force, but that threshold is still far away. African countries can lead in increasing the speed of signing and ratification. – Africa must help steer the High Seas Treaty out of dire straits | ISS Africa
(Anderson Ngowa, Xixi Chen, Benson Ireri – World Resources Institute) In Africa, renewable energy can offer tremendous benefits that go beyond replacing fossil fuels and reducing carbon emissions. Consider agriculture: Sub-Saharan Africa holds a quarter of the world’s arable land. Yet 37% of food produced there is lost after harvest, largely due to systemic issues like a lack of cold storage and poor transportation infrastructure, as well as hotter temperatures driven by climate change. This hurts farmers’ incomes and contributes to the region’s severe food shortages. – Local Banks Can Unlock Africa’s Clean Energy Future | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
Africa – United Nations
(Jamal Machrouh – Policy Center for the New South) Après presque 80 ans de la création de l’Organisation des Nations Unies, l’Afrique n’est toujours pas admise comme membre permanent au sein de son super organe : le Conseil de Sécurité. Cette « discrimination institutionnelle » à l’endroit des pays africains est aujourd’hui juridiquement indéfendable et politiquement insoutenable. Mais, par- dessus tout, une telle mise à l’écart de 54 États représentant plus d’un milliard de personnes est stratégiquement défavorable pour un Occident en quête de légitimité et d’adaptation avec une géopolitique mondiale en pleine mutation. Ce Policy Brief suggère qu’il existerait aujourd’hui une fenêtre d’opportunité stratégique qui s’ouvre pour le continent africain dans son ambition à s’assurer un siège permanent au Conseil de Sécurité ; invite les pays africains à saisir pleinement une telle opportunité et propose un certain nombre de modalités et de recommandations pour une meilleure inclusion de l’Afrique dans le club des membres permanents du Conseil de Sécurité. – L’Afrique n’est toujours pas membre permanent du Conseil de Sécurité de l’ONU, pourquoi il est temps d’agir (policycenter.ma)
Argentina
(Felipe de la Balze – Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales) The aim of this text is to analyze the current global scenario and its impact on Argentina. This interrelationship can be divided for analysis into two sections: a geopolitical section and an economic section. These two topics are presented separately for conceptual explanation, but both are interconnected within an interdependent logic. – Consejo Argentino para las Relaciones Internacionales (cari.org.ar)
Australia
(John Coyne – ASPI The Strategist) Fourteen countries this week took what they intended to be a big step in countering China’s dominance of critical minerals supply. But it’s unclear whether the initiative will restore competitiveness of Australian production and investment in the face of massive subsidies offered by China and, in response, the United States. The Minerals Security Partnership, a coalition of 14 countries, including the G7, Australia, India, South Korea, and European Union members, announced plans for a finance network to boost investment in critical metals. – Critical Minerals Security Partnership may not be enough for Australia | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Jocelinn Kang, Jessie Jacob – ASPI The Strategist) Australia has an opportunity to strengthen its position as a regional digital hub in the Indo-Pacific, as the submarine cable industry undergoes a transformation. Capitalising on this chance will take strategic focus and decisive action. The rise of United States-based hyperscalers—Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon—alongside intensifying geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, is reshaping the global digital landscape. – Australia should seize the chance to be an undersea cable hub for the region | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
Canada
(Shelly Bruce, John Bruce, Kailee Hilt, Aaron Shull – Centre for International Governance Innovation) Some of Canada’s top cybersecurity experts attended the second annual Waterloo Security Dialogue in June 2024 to share their cybersecurity concerns for the country and develop solutions to these growing threats. Hosted by the Centre for International Governance Innovation, the event brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from all sectors, including government, business and civil society. This special report recommends that building Canada’s cybersecurity resilience will require enhanced cooperation both within and across jurisdictions to help mitigate cyber risks, reduce the number and severity of cybersecurity incidents, and speed recovery. From elementary schoolchildren to the workforce, Canadians of all ages need to be prepared for and protected against cybersecurity threats by a strong local and national framework. – Building a Cyber-Resilient Canada: Highlights from the Waterloo Security Dialogue 2024 – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
China
(Seungshin Lee – Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) On July 18, 2024, the Third Plenary Session of the China adopted the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Promoting Chinese-style Modernization. The decisions reached at the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee will determine the general direction of China’s economic operations in the next five to ten years. Two important goals were announced at the plenary session, namely to achieve the goal of socialist modernization by 2035, and to complete the reform tasks identified at the meeting by 2029. – Prospects for Changes in Chinese Economic Policy in the Coming Years | KIEP Opinions | PUBLISH : Korea Institute for International Economic Policy
China – Afghanistan
(Barnett R. Rubin – Stimson Center) In this chapter of China and Conflict Mediation, Distinguished Fellow Barnett R. Rubin discusses China’s role in conflict mediation in Afghanistan and how China’s approach has evolved with its own changing status in the international sphere. In examining the variety of conflict mediation processes that China has attempted, ranging from private meetings to multilateral groupings, Rubin delves into China’s interests in Afghanistan as well as the limits of China’s involvement. – Chinese Peacemaking Efforts in Afghanistan • Stimson Center
China – Iran
(Atul Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) It is widely recognized that China and Iran have maintained enduring and productive military ties, with the former significantly contributing weapon platforms and critical military and dual-use technologies to the Islamic Republic. However, their bilateral military relationship has encountered challenges over time. This article examines the arms sales over the past five decades, identifies broad patterns indicative of future trends, and evaluates whether the prima facie impression of China’s predominant role in augmenting Iran’s military capability is accurate and credible. – China’s Arms Transfer to Iran (orfonline.org)
China – Turkey – Europe
(SWP) China’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer, BYD, recently announced a USD 1 billion investment in Turkey. The joint venture positions Turkey as a key supply corridor between China and Europe. It could considerably impact market conditions in the European electric vehicle sector, argues Jens Bastian. – China’s push towards Europe: BYD’s investment in Turkey – Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (swp-berlin.org)
Climate Action, Human Security, Energy Transition, Sustainable Development
(Nilanjan Ghosh, Vanita Sharma – Observer Research Foundation) The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) sit at the heart of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and are the pillars of global developmental governance. In September 2015, when the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit adopted the SDGs, the international community made an advance from the Millennium Declaration of the year 2000 that embodied the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The eight quantifiable targets under the MDGs found a more holistic embodiment in the 17 SDGs targeted to be achieved by 2030. Just as the SDGs replaced the MDGs in 2015, we need a new set of goals in a post-2030 era—targets that will be guided by the progress so far, the persisting challenges, and evolving human aspirations. – The Next Frontier: Charting the Contours of the Post-2030 Development Agenda (orfonline.org)
(Simone Bunse, Liliana Almeida – SIPRI) The number of people suffering acute food insecurity keeps rising. In 2023, nearly 282 million people in 59 countries experienced high levels of acute food insecurity, one more country and 24 million more people than in 2022. The main drivers of this rising food insecurity are conflict, climate pressures and economic crises. With armed conflicts proving intractable, climate impacts intensifying and humanitarian funding falling further and further behind ever-growing humanitarian need, aid urgently needs to become more effective. – More effective aid by design: Integrating food, climate and peace | SIPRI
(World Resources Institute) According to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), it is possible to triple renewable energy by 2030, fulfilling the pledge made by nearly 200 countries at COP28 just a year ago. The report points to favorable economics and policies paving a path forward but notes that significant investment is needed to expand grid infrastructure and that permitting processes require reform. – STATEMENT: Tripling Renewables by 2030 is Within Reach | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Cynthia Elliott, Taryn Fransen, Jamal Srouji – World Resources Institute) Since the Paris Agreement, subsequent COP decisions have increasingly encouraged Parties to align their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with 1.5°C, building on earlier calls to align NDCs with long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) “towards just transitions to net zero.” This research examines the characteristics that might constitute alignment of NDCs with national net-zero targets, the mitigation goals in LT-LEDS, and the collective 1.5°C goal, and summarizes the implications and recommendations for those designing NDCs and assessing their alignment. – Aligning NDCs with 1.5°C, Net Zero, and LT-LEDS | World Resources Institute (wri.org)
(Katherine M. Crosman – World Economic Forum) A global treaty signed in 2023 aimed at protecting areas of the ocean that are under no country’s national jurisdiction is currently being signed and ratified internationally. Private sector actors are key stakeholders in BBNJ and are likely to be among those most affected by the Agreement’s provisions. A new World Economic Forum white paper recommends cross-sectoral action, including active engagement of and by private sector actors, to increase the likelihood of successful Agreement implementation. – This treaty protects ocean area beyond national jurisdiction | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
(Observer Research Foundation) As the frequency and impacts of climate events increase, demand for adaptation at the local level becomes urgent. The adaptation finance received from developing and least- developed countries is estimated to be less than USD 25 billion per year, which is exponentially less than the required amount of USD 215 billion per year. Further, the evidence indicates that less than 10% of global climate finance reaches the local level. Local communities lack the institutional capacity, financial tools, and knowledge networks necessary to secure adaptation finance. Complex application procedures, limited funding availability, and unequal distribution exacerbate the challenge. This highlights the need for developing innovative approaches to enhance access to adaptation finance at the local level in the Global South. – Scaling Climate Finance for locally-led Adaptation: lessons from the Global South (orfonline.org)
Emerging Technologies
(Anthony Ilukwe – Centre for International Governance Innovation) In an era marked by increasing skepticism and mistrust in public institutions, innovative solutions to restore faith in government have never been more needed. As trust continues to erode, particularly concerning critical issues such as health care, immigration, climate change and the broader economy, a powerful yet underexplored tool emerges: artificial intelligence (AI). – To Help Rebuild Public Trust in Government, Harness AI – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
(Carme Artigas, James Manyika – Project Syndicate/ASPI The Strategist) Like the steam engine and electricity, artificial intelligence is a transformative, foundational technology. If developed to its full potential, AI can create opportunities for people around the world, enable businesses, power economic growth, advance science and help humanity make significant strides toward achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). – Unlocking AI’s potential for all through global collaboration | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
(Klaus Schwab – World Economic Forum) Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and blockchain have propelled us into the Intelligent Age. If managed cooperatively and mindfully, this revolution can enhance human potential. Social, geopolitical, technological and environmental intelligence will be fundamental to success in the Intelligent Age. – The Intelligent Age: A time for cooperation | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
Europe
(Reece Iriye – Stimson Center) How can collective values and shared norms be leveraged in the cyber domain? One of the most influential data protection agreements in existence, with an impact beyond its regional jurisdiction, might hold some answers. This chapter explores how the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation or GDPR leveraged a bedrock of shared cultural ideas around data in order to achieve a ripple effect globally. It offers an understanding of how norms become standards of behavior, and that formal legislation can be most meaningful if it relies on existing social and institutional norms. – The European Union General Data Protection Regulation • Stimson Center
(Giorgos Verdi – European Council on Foreign Relations) Fierce geopolitical competition between the United States and China is fragmenting global technology governance and leaving the global south with little to no say. To counter this trend, the United Nations aims to rekindle support for multilateral technology governance: on the 22 September, the UN adopted the Global Digital Compact which lays out several fundamental principles and recommendations to create an “inclusive, open, sustainable, fair, safe and secure digital future for all”. However, its success will largely depend on countries’ follow-up actions, making it vulnerable amid great and middle power competition. The European Union should therefore dedicate resources to ensure that key UN recommendations materialise. This would adhere to the EU’s values of multilateralism, global standards, and open technologies, as well as help prevent further technological fragmentation which would diminish the EU’s regulatory power and innovation capacity. – In the web: How the EU can untangle global technology governance | ECFR
(Mats Engström – European Council on Foreign Relations) Ursula von den Leyen’s new European Commission needs to achieve domestic public support for its green policies while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. The rapid summer flooding which impacted several European countries illustrates how urgently the European Union should be addressing the impact of climate change on its member states – but the concerns of its citizens, such as on deregulation, should not be understated. A forthcoming report by former Finnish president Sauli Niinistö will be a starting point for the commission’s new preparedness commissioner, Hadja Lahbib, and other key players, in how to tackle such challenges. It will likely include recommendations on how to reduce dependencies on resource imports, manage water scarcity, and adapt infrastructure to a changing climate. – Green team: Von der Leyen holds the future of Europe’s climate policy in her hands | ECFR
Europe – Mediterranean
(Abdelhak Bassou – Policy Center for the New South) Le minilatéralisme, approche flexible et rapide de la coopération internationale, s’avère efficace pour relever des défis communs entre un petit nombre d’États. Inspiré du « Dialogue 5+5 » méditerranéen, ce concept est proposé pour renforcer la coopération euro-africaine dans l’espace atlantique, en créant un forum « 3+3 » réunissant l’Espagne, la France, le Portugal, le Maroc, la Mauritanie et le Sénégal. Ce cadre permettrait de répondre aux enjeux sécuritaires, économiques et migratoires de la région tout en renforçant les relations entre ces pays atlantiques. Les infrastructures portuaires et énergétiques, ainsi que la gestion des ressources naturelles et la sécurité régionale, seraient au cœur de cette coopération. Le forum pourrait servir de base à une plus grande collaboration transatlantique, en créant un espace de développement partagé, axé sur la lutte contre le terrorisme, la gestion des flux migratoires et le développement des énergies renouvelables. – Un « 3+3 » euro-africain en Atlantique : renforcer le « 5+5 » méditerranéen (policycenter.ma)
Europe – USA
(Filip Medunić – German Council on Foreign Relations) US President Joe Biden has only a few months left in office before he hands over to his successor in January. While most of the United States and Europe are looking at the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the US Treasury is busy working on finalizing a screening mechanism on US investments in China before the end of the year. Although it might seem that it only concerns American companies and investors, it will create more than a headache for the EU. It is another piece of a package that Washington is implementing to limit China’s technological advances in emerging technologies. The European Union and Germany will not have much time until they feel the pressure to follow suit—much like on export controls. – The EU and US Outbound Investment Screening: Know the Flows | Internationale Politik Quarterly (ip-quarterly.com)
France – New Caledonia
(Nic Maclellan – Australian Institute of International Affairs) Months after his defeat in July’s National Assembly elections, French President Emmanuel Macron has finally appointed a new prime minister and government. Meanwhile, New Caledonia’s crisis has continued—with regional implications for Australia and Pacific neighbours. – New Government in Paris must act on New Caledonia – Australian Institute of International Affairs – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Germany
(Mikaela Lui – Lowy The Interpreter) This month, the former East-German states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg held elections for their state parliaments. Two parties that made the greatest gains were the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD – Alternative for Germany) and the leftist Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW – Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance). The results underscore the ongoing divide between what was once East and West Germany. – Germany’s growing east-west divide | Lowy Institute
Ghana
(Enoch Randy Aikins – Institute for Security Studies) Illegal small-scale mining in Ghana is destroying the environment, making people ill, adding to water scarcity and damaging farmlands and crops such as cocoa. Galamsey, as it’s known locally, can also include large mining firms operating against the law. It is carried out by Ghanaians and foreigners, including Chinese and West African nationals from Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. The Africa Defense Forum military magazine reports that from 2008 to 2013, over 50 000 Chinese entered the country to mine gold illegally. – Ghana must stop galamsey before it sinks the country | ISS Africa
Global Governance
(Otaviano Canuto, Abdelaaziz Ait Ali, Mahmoud Arbouch, Sandra Rios, Renato Baumann – Policy Center for the New South) The resurgence of Neo protectionism as a reality is creating a pressing need to establish New Industrial Policies (NIPs) capable of striking a balance between Global Value Chains (GVC) managers’ quest for efficiency and policy makers’ need for more increasing resilience or national security in a turmoiled geopolitical landscape. Furthermore, although NIPs might pursue legitimate non-economic objectives, they are often captured by vested interests, resulting in protectionist measures. These policies produce negative spillovers, jeopardizing other countries’ development perspectives. This policy brief posits that countries embracing industrial policies with trade diversion components must allocate efforts to implement additional trade liberalization in sectors where the affected exporting countries have comparative advantages as compensation for the negative spillovers their unilateral domestic policies impose on third countries. This highlights the need to establish a structured system that penalizes protectionist countries for exceeding predetermined limits on subsidies and distortive measures. This policy brief also recommends that advanced economies implementing industrial policies with high amounts of embodied subsidies contribute to an international fund dedicated to financing developing economies’ access to new green technologies. This approach acknowledges the undeniable push towards aggressive industrial policies, yet simultaneously strives to establish a framework to temper this emerging trend. This mechanism aligns with the principles of economic fairness and encourages nations to adopt less distortive behaviors in their pursuit of economic security or resilience to shocks. – Pathways for Reconciling New Industrial Policy and International Cooperation for Global Goods (policycenter.ma)
Haiti
(Emmaculate A Liaga, Meressa K Dessu – Institute for Security Studies) In October 2023, the United Nations Security Council authorised a Multinational Security Support Mission to Haiti, after a request for assistance by the country’s government and civil society representatives. Led by Kenya, the 12-month international police service mission aims to help Haitian police restore law and order amid worsening civil strife and gang violence that has plagued the country since 2018. – Will the Kenyan-led police mission in Haiti be replaced? | ISS Africa
Korea – South Africa
(Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) This study examines strategies to enhance economic cooperation between Korea and Africa in the value chains of the automotive industry with a focus on South Africa, the most advanced economy in the sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa has the largest automobile market in Africa, and its automotive industry has become the country’s largest manufacturing sector, contributing 4.9% to GDP and 21.7% to the manufacturing output. Korea, the world’s fifth largest car producer, can strengthen ties with South Africa by supporting development of regional value chains of the automotive industry with policy advice and technical support. Cooperation can also focus on expanding Korean automobile companies’ production capacity to increase brand awareness and market share in South Africa and neighboring sub-Saharan countries, improving productivity and efficiency to boost the competitiveness of South Africa’s automotive industry, and strengthening the local production value chains in a more environmentally friendly way. – Driving Forward: Strategies for Korea-South Africa Cooperation in the Automotive Industry | World Economy Brief | PUBLISH : Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (kiep.go.kr)
India – Brunei
(Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Brunei elevated the relationship to an ‘enhanced partnership’. Brunei is important for India from the point of view of space, defence and energy sectors. The Sultanate also hosts a large Indian diaspora, an important bridge between the two countries. In the space and defence sector, India has a huge scope to play an enlarged role. – Significance of PM Modi’s Visit to Brunei | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
India – Japan – China
(Harsh V. Pant, Shashank Mattoo – Observer Research Foundation) The spectre of conflict and strategic competition has begun to haunt the Indo-Pacific in earnest. In the South China Sea, Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam and Indonesia have nervously watched increasing Chinese incursions into their territorial waters. Further north, the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands have emerged as a significant regional fault line with Chinese vessels making their presence felt, much to the discomfiture of Japan. As the full scale of China’s economic and military power is brought to bear on the region, India and Japan have grown ever closer in an attempt to balance the scales of power. This relationship, while undoubtedly forged in crisis and in the desire to unite against a common competitor, has grown beyond a simple deterrent and now encompasses a confluence of interests across a range of economic, multilateral and security matters. – The China Factor in India-Japan Relations (orfonline.org)
Mali
(Jean-Hervé Jezequel – Crisis Group) Des jihadistes maliens ont lancé le 17 septembre une attaque sans précédent contre deux sites importants du dispositif sécuritaire de Bamako, la capitale malienne. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Jean-Hervé Jézéquel analyse l’importance de cet évènement et ses implications pour les autorités et les groupes armés. – Attaque jihadiste du 17 septembre à Bamako : l’échec du tout-sécuritaire au Mali ? | Crisis Group
Mediterranean
(Karolina Zubel – Center for Social and Economic Research) The Mediterranean region is warming 20% faster than the global average, and population growth, tourism, and industrialisation are increasing pressure on its energy resources, which remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Despite vast renewable energy potential, Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries use only a small share of RES. – The means for cities and regions to support the energy transition in the Mediterranean – CASE (case-research.eu)
Middle East
(Michael Knights – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) As the Iraqi judiciary follows up on the country’s twenty-first-century rendition of Watergate—a widespread eavesdropping campaign against politicians, militiamen, and their families—a new twist has emerged after a blockbuster exposé article on the issue was quickly suppressed. Last month, the online publication New Region was one of the first to break the story on an eavesdropping operation conducted by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), identifying Mohammed Johi, deputy director-general of the PMO Administrative Department, as the man running the effort on behalf of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s family. On September 24, New Region issued a new exposé that was taken down after just five hours due to political pressure brought by Sudani’s defenders in Iran and the Iraqi PMO. The article was downloaded by many users before the takedown, however, and the full text is mirrored on numerous internet archiving sites. – New Exposé on Sudani PMO Eavesdropping Is Suppressed, But Archived Online | The Washington Institute
(Prasanta Kumar Pradhan – Manohar Parrikar Institute) In the midst of multiple crises, the involvement of Houthis in the Israel–Hamas War has further dampened the prospects of peace. The Israel–Hamas conflict has created new obstacles in the intra-Yemeni dialogue. The escalating tensions in the Red Sea have impacted the delivery of vital aid, as vessels carrying humanitarian supplies face increasing challenges. India recognises the Aden-based Presidential Leadership Council and has repeatedly appealed for a Yemeni-led and Yemeni-owned political process. – The Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea: Impact on Yemen | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
(Hirak Jyoti Das – Vivekananda International Foundation) Israel’s security policy has been influenced by a deep sense of regional isolation, vulnerability and asymmetry in terms of small territorial size, limited population, lack of strategic depth, diplomatic weaknesses, limited strategic and economic assets, involvement of superpowers in the region and history of wars with its Arab neighbours in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. In 1967 war, the acquisition of new territories, around 88,000 sq. km. comprising of Sinai Peninsula, Golan Heights, Gaza Strip and West Bank including East Jerusalem, introduced the term “Occupied territories”. Israel’s hold over the entire Mandate Palestine made Palestinians its administrative responsibility, either as citizens or residents. – Israel’s conundrum about the Day after Scenario in Gaza Strip | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
(Yehoshua Kalisk – INSS) Hezbollah’s missile attack following the assassination of Ibrahim Aqil and the commanders of the Radwan Force demonstrated that the group’s missile range has expanded, targeting Israel’s Jezreel Valley, the Krayot, and Carmel areas. – Expanding Hezbollah’s Missile Range: An Arsenal Review | INSS
(Sima Shine – INSS) The recent escalation in the fighting in the north, following the significant blow to Hezbollah during the pager explosions and the assassinations of senior officials, including Ibrahim Aqil, has provoked sharp reactions in Iran. Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, publicly shared the condolence letter he sent to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and called on the international community to bring an end to the “crimes of the Zionist regime.” Meanwhile, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have continued to issue statements promising a delayed response to the assassination of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. – Between Embarrassment and Militancy: Iran’s Position on the Developments in Lebanon | INSS
Morocco
(Rim Berahab – Policy Center for the New South) Green industrial policies are essential to enable the structural transformations needed for a successful transition to a low-carbon economy. Because of the pressing need to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation, it is imperative to reallocate resources strategically from carbon-intensive sectors to sustainable, high-productivity industries. This transition is critical both to mitigate the impacts of climate change and to promote long-term economic growth and sustainability. This paper examines Morocco’s green transition and identifies several key issues that must be addressed to ensure success. These include the need for a coherent institutional framework, the implementation of effective regulatory measures, and greater private-sector involvement. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the importance of regional collaboration, innovation, and research and development in overcoming challenges to a sustainable transition. It also analyses the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as a case study of how trade policies can be used to encourage decarbonization and align international trade practices with environmental objectives. – TRANSFORMING ECONOMIES: How Is the Green Transition Shaping Trade and Industrial Policies? A Focus on Morocco (policycenter.ma)
Nepal
(Rumela Sen, Niharika Tuladhar – East Asia Forum) Nepal’s revolving door of leaders highlights the growing influence of personalist politics, with leaders like Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, KP Sharma Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba prioritising individual power over governance. Frequent coalition breakdowns have led to political instability, eroding accountability within parties and weakening democratic institutions. To fully realise Nepal’s journey towards a mature and stable democracy, it must shift toward programmatic politics, focusing on policy platforms and curbing the influence of individual leaders. – Nepal must shift from personalist to programmatic politics | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
South Africa
(David Bruce – Institute for Security Studies) One of the legacies of apartheid in 1990s South Africa was entrenched public hostility towards the police. This was a consequence of the role police played in enforcing apartheid and brutally repressing protest and resistance. When Community Policing Forums (CPFs) were first established in the mid-1990s, their core objective was to help the newly formed South African Police Service (SAPS) build relationships with the public and overcome mistrust. On balance, they succeeded in blunting community hostility and promoting some cooperation. – Flexible community policing is vital to local safety | ISS Africa
Sudan
(Amgad Fareid Eltayeb – European Council on Foreign Relations) In just a year and a half, the ongoing war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia has inflicted a devastating humanitarian toll: more than 150,000 civilian casualties, over 12.7 million displaced (with nearly a fourth seeking refuge outside the country), and over 25 million facing acute food insecurity. – Time for action: Envisioning a new approach to protect civilians in Sudan | ECFR
Taiwan
(Ryan Hass – Brookings) As countries confront complex external threats, their leaders often seek to forge grand strategies to organize tools of statecraft for protecting and advancing national interests. Taiwan presently faces a threat of annexation from the People’s Republic of China, in addition to shifts in the global economy that could erode Taiwan’s competitive position. In the face of these threats, Taiwan’s newly elected leader, President Lai Ching-te, appears to be forging a grand strategy designed to secure Taiwan’s political autonomy and democratic governance. This emerging grand strategy rests on four pillars: developing whole-of-society resilience; pursuing active diplomacy with other key powers; raising international awareness of Taiwan’s indispensability to the global economy; and building asymmetric defensive capabilities. To make progress in advancing this strategy, the Lai administration will need to overcome deepening domestic political divides as well as challenges to Taiwan’s well-being, such as limits on energy supply and demographic headwinds. How well Lai succeeds in building support for his vision will go a long way toward determining the future of Taiwan and the direction of cross-Strait relations. – Taiwan’s search for a grand strategy (brookings.edu)
(Lin Chia-lung – ASPI The Strategist) It is long past time for Taiwan again to be included in the United Nations. Reasons include the need to address growing military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and to acknowledged Taiwan’s thriving democracy and economic importance.
That economic importance includes Taiwan’s enormous role in global supply chains. It produces more than 90 percent of the world’s high-end semiconductors and a significant portion of the advanced chips that drive the artificial intelligence revolution. Moreover, half of the world’s seaborne trade passes through the Taiwan Strait. Peace and stability around Taiwan has promoted global prosperity. – With growing tension in the strait, Taiwan needs to be in the UN | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
USA
(John Villasenor – Brookings) Over the past few years, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the Department of Commerce has released a series of export control rules aimed at limiting access by China to the most advanced chips used for artificial intelligence (AI) computations. Loopholes based on the use of cloud computing limit the effectiveness of such controls. However, expanding AI export control rules to encompass cloud computing risks collateral damage to AI research at U.S. universities, which would undermine the vitality of the AI innovation ecosystem in the United States. – The tension between AI export control and U.S. AI innovation (brookings.edu)
(Kimberly Donovan, Maia Nikoladze – Atlantic Council) “The United States’ economic strength and competitiveness is national security,” said US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo at the Atlantic Council’s Distinguished Leadership Awards in May. Raimondo stressed the US government’s strategy of fueling innovation and deepening commercial partnerships while protecting sensitive technology from falling into the wrong hands. Just a few months later, the Commerce Department on Monday proposed a ban on Chinese software in internet-connected vehicles out of cybersecurity concerns. Raimondo’s May speech and subsequent actions are demonstrating the rapid convergence of economics with national security, a major theme of this week’s Transatlantic Forum on Geoeconomics. – What the next administration should do to ensure US economic and national security – Atlantic Council
(Jordan McGillis – Lowy The Interpreter) Donald Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his 2024 running mate has disquieted America’s security partners in Europe and Asia. If America’s 45th president returns as its 47th and a Vice President Vance holds sway, the implications for Europe are clear. Vance argues that President Joe Biden’s arming of the Ukrainians has passed the point of diminishing returns and that it distracts from America’s challenge of greatest import: China’s rise. But while Vance has called for a focus on Asia, what exactly a Vance-inflected foreign policy would mean for the region is not obvious. Vance’s well-documented body of thought on American society, governance, and strategy offers some clues, however, on how he would approach China, Taiwan, and related questions. – Bargaining chips: What the Vance Doctrine means for Taiwan | Lowy Institute
USA – Africa
(Kassie Freeman – Policy Center for the New South) The 2024 Presidential election in the United States will be historic and consequential. Both candidates are history-making in different ways. Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, is the first woman of African and Asian descent to become the Democratic Party’s nominee, while President Trump won his party’s nomination without participating in any Republic Primary debates. Even more strikingly different are their parties’ platforms—what they would do if elected. However, it is easy to imagine who Africa and the Diaspora should and will be supporting for President—with all the excitement, joy, and historic outcomes that a President Kamala Harris would bring to African descendants everywhere. Even so, from a political perspective, it will be important for Africa and the Diaspora to set an inclusive, collective agenda, regardless of who is elected U.S. President. – The U.S. Presidential Election: Different Possibilities and New Narratives for Africa and the African Diaspora (policycenter.ma)
