From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Afghanistan
(Shivam Shekhawat, Poorva Vyas- Observer Research Foundation) Three years after the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan, even though they have been successful in establishing broad-based control over the country, the condition of the common Afghans remains untenable. In contrast to the Taliban 1.0, which was officially recognised by three states namely: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), no state has formally recognised the current Islamic Emirate. While the group has engaged diplomatically with several countries, the overall scenario appears to be byzantine, as governments refuse to lump their exchanges with the group as equivalent to the formal recognition of the Taliban administration. – Recognising the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: Questions of international law (orfonline.org)
Africa – United Nations
(Rama Yade – Atlantic Council) As US President Joe Biden arrives in New York this week for the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, he has his eyes cast across the Atlantic to legacy-making initiatives to strengthen relations with Africa. His UN ambassador, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, recently announced that the United States is supporting the creation of two permanent seats for Africa on the UN Security Council. The White House also tipped off reporters to Biden’s upcoming visit to Angola, fulfilling a promise by making his first trip to Africa—and drawing an implicit contrast with his predecessor, who never set foot on the continent during his time in office. Taken together, these are landmark events in US-Africa relations and will help address the United States’ longstanding shortcomings in engaging the continent as its geopolitical rivals gain traction there. But there are significant challenges to fully developing these diplomatic efforts, which will only bear fruit if executed effectively. – What would it mean for Africa to have two permanent UN Security Council seats? – Atlantic Council
China
(East Asia Forum) China is facing its third major deflationary episode in the past three decades, and it is yet to be seen if policymakers can implement the ‘circuit breakers’ necessary to break out of the economic downturn. With diminishing returns to China’s investment-led development model and the geopolitical implications of a manufacturing stimulus, China needs to reorient towards a consumption-led growth model. The possibility of Chinese accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership could provide the external pressure to undertake such reforms, similar to the strategy for liberalisation during China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation. – Will bad times make for good policy in China? | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
(Chia Shimin, James Char – East Asia Forum) China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) underwent a significant reorganisation on 19 April 2024, replacing their Strategic Support Force with a new Information Support Force (PLAISF) to adapt to modern military trends in cyberspace and information. The change marks continued efforts by the PLA to hone their control of the information sphere, as reflected in their history, and to enhance interoperability between the different service branches. The restructuring is likely a response to the changing character of war. – Honing the PLA’s capacity for information warfare is not without precedence | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
China – Africa
(Samir Bhattacharya – East Asia Forum) China’s ambitious diplomacy and development initiatives face challenges in West Africa due to political instability and violence, which is jeopardising its investments and Beijing’s assertive image. The multi-billion-dollar Niger-Benin oil pipeline, a crucial project for China, has been delayed and disrupted by a military coup in Niger and regional conflicts. Despite mediation efforts, the pipeline’s future remains uncertain, impacting China’s energy security and diplomatic assertiveness in the region. – China’s mediation diplomacy hits a roadblock in Africa | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
(Bonnie S. Glaser, Paul Nantulya – German Marshall Fund of the United States) The Forum on China–Africa Cooperation, or FOCAC, was established in 2000 as a platform for facilitating multilateral cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and countries in Africa. A FOCAC summit is held every three years and is the occasion to issue joint declarations and a three-year China-Africa program plan. The 2024 FOCAC took place in Beijing from September 4th to September 6th under the theme “Joining Hands to Advance Modernization and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future.” Heads of state and delegations from 53 African countries attended the forum, which made it the largest diplomatic event held by China this year. – China and Africa: 2024 FOCAC Outcomes | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Germany
(Ben Schreer, Fabian Hinz – IISS) The German government’s decision to support the deployment of US long-range missiles in Germany sends an important signal about the need to modernise Germany’s deterrence posture. – New stand-off weapons for the Bundeswehr? (iiss.org)
(Jackson Janes – German Marshall Fund of the United States) Recent elections in eastern Germany have highlighted the increase in support for both far-right and far-left parties throughout the country, raising concerns about the stability of the government in Berlin and threats to democracy from both ends of the political spectrum. – All Politics is Local, National, and Global: What the Brandenburg Regional Election Means for Germany | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
India – Africa
(Manish Vaid – Lowy The Interpreter) Over the past decade, India has significantly bolstered its collaboration with African nations in the renewable energy sector. Harnessing the continent’s abundant solar potential is seen as crucial for economic growth and sustainable development. – India seizes a small chance to make a big difference in Africa’s solar transformation | Lowy Institute
India – China
(Atul Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) In the past decade, India has successfully demonstrated the three pillars of effective deterrence—capability, credibility, and communication—in its strategic posture towards China. It has bolstered its defence diplomacy with key partners in South Asia and Southeast Asia, and across the broader Indo-Pacific region, through regular joint military exercises, military officers exchange programmes, frequent high-level diplomatic visits, and the conclusion of bilateral defence agreements. Collectively, these efforts have reinforced India’s standing as a formidable power in the Eastern Hemisphere. – India’s Defence Diplomacy: A Strategic Response to China in the Modi Years (orfonline.org)
Indo Pacific
(Sunaina Kumar – Observer Research Foundation) The persistent gap between male and female labour market participation is a trend common to all regions of the world. Across the Indo-Pacific region, research shows that women are not benefiting from job growth in new sectors as much as men. A missing link in the conversation on improving women’s participation in the Indo-Pacific economies is the role of trade. The region, which has an outsized influence on geopolitics and accounts for nearly half of global trade, can be critical for accelerating women’s economic participation and promoting inclusive growth through trade. – Breaking barriers: Enhancing women’s participation in trade across the Indo-Pacific (orfonline.org)
Myanmar
(Morgan Michaels – IISS) Myanmar’s military is upping its use of uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) after suffering heavy losses from opposition forces’ use of the capability. Having purchased UAVs from China and Russia, the regime is now integrating these systems into its arsenal and its training syllabus. Uninhabited inroads in Myanmar’s civil war (iiss.org)
North Korea
(Gabriela Bernal – Lowy The Interpreter) While the West tends to dismiss North Korea as a rogue state or hermit kingdom, the reality is that North Korea is a nuclear power. That automatically boosts its position on the international stage. The Lowy Institute’s 2024 Asia Power Index (API) makes several mentions of North Korea, perhaps the most noteworthy of which is its classification of the country as a “middle power” alongside 15 others including South Korea, Russia and Japan. – North Korea and its middle power friends | Lowy Institute
Pakistan
(Anchita Borthakur – Vivekananda International Foundation) In recent months, the town of Chaman in Balochistan province has become the epicentre of intense protests, drawing national and international attention. The border towns of Chaman in Pakistan’s Balochistan province and Spin Boldak in Afghanistan’s province of Kandahar have become focal points of relentless protests following the implementation of a new visa policy by the Pakistani government. This policy, aimed at tightening border controls, has sparked significant unrest in both communities, revealing the deep-seated issues related to cross-border relations and its economic implications. Locals argue that the new policy disrupts their livelihoods and undermines cultural and economic ties with their co-ethnic brethren inhabiting the other side. However, the unrest also demonstrates the deeply rooted historical and geopolitical complexities surrounding the Durand Line, a contentious border that has long been a source of friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Therefore, the protests highlight the enduring impact of colonial-era decisions on contemporary regional politics and local grievances. – Chaman Protest Movement: A Struggle for Cross-Border Rights & Pashtun Identity in Pakistan | Vivekananda International Foundation (vifindia.org)
Quad
(Harsh V. Pant, Sayantan Haldar – Observer Research Foundation) US President Joe Biden hosted the Prime Ministers of India, Australia, and Japan for the fourth in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit at his hometown, Wilmington, last week. This summit was seen as crucial for multiple reasons. First, it was the last one to be attended by Biden, a key architect of the grouping’s institutionalisation, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who played a pivotal role in adding political heft to the forum. Second, 2024 marks 20 years since the formation of the grouping. Third, and most importantly, the Wilmington summit further consolidated the grouping by expanding key areas of cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, this summit has been successful in signalling – ‘The Quad is here to stay’. – Biggest Takeaway From Quad Summit Is That It’s Here To Stay (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Pavel K. Baev – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian President Vladimir Putin was propelled into power amid a series of deadly terrorist attacks in Russia in the 1990s. His tactics to combat this “war on terror” are being used today against Ukraine. In the 1990s, Russian propaganda and a boost to the economy mobilized the Russian people. Today, a deteriorating economy is worsening the lives of ordinary Russians as the long war continues, a fact that propaganda is not able to alter. Attempts to engage Putin in reasonable conversation on ending the war will fail, as he has always lacked essential leadership skills and has maintained a rigidly confrontational mindset. – Legacy of Putin’s War on Terror Weighs Heavily on Modern Russia – Jamestown
Russia – North America
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian state-run media outlets, such as RT, have transformed their disinformation campaigns in the West to adapt to local situations, exerting subtle influence on domestic media to conduct a more covert operation.
Moscow is increasingly utilizing embedded propaganda by funding foreign media voices, such as US outlet Tenet Media. These campaigns focus on US domestic issues, taking advantage of increased political polarization to further complicate disinformation detection. The controversial documentary “Russians at War,” by Russian-Canadian film director Anastasia Trofimova, exemplifies Russia’s use of media and film as soft power to shape narratives about the war in Ukraine, sparking backlash and censorship efforts in North America. – Russia’s Disinformation Campaign in North America Becomes Smarter and More Flexible – Jamestown
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Vladimir Socor – The Jamestown Foundation) NATO’s outgoing Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, recently offered his first retrospective assessment of the Alliance’s Ukraine policy. Retrospective assessments recognize that the United States and its major allies failed to deter Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While member states may have provided some degree of lethal military aid, NATO as an alliance only provided non-lethal military equipment to Ukraine both before and after Russia’s 2022 invasion. The recent Washington summit has signaled that NATO would start to provide some lethal assistance, but these efforts remain mainly in the hands of member states via the Ramstein Group. NATO member states conducted troop training and exercises in Ukraine prior to Russia’s 2022 invasion but have not done so since then. Instead, they train Ukrainian troops on NATO territory pending an elusive “end to the war.” – NATO’s Outgoing Leader Stoltenberg Reflects on Missed Opportunities in Ukraine (Part One) – Jamestown
USA
(Maya Garg, Glencora Haskins, Mayu Takeuchi, Manann Donoghoe – Brookings) For over 50 years, a lack of federal investment in critical infrastructure has remained the status quo. While local stakeholders and environmental advocacy groups have long pushed for sustained investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and the built environment, few federal resources have been available—leaving communities across the U.S. to pick up the tab for crumbling roads and bridges, water and sewer system failures, and the significant environmental, socioeconomic, and public health impacts of degrading public spaces. In the American Society of Civil Engineers’ 2021 report card of U.S. infrastructure, the estimated cost of this disinvestment topped $2.6 trillion. – Deploying American Rescue Plan funds for climate-resilient and equitable infrastructure projects (brookings.edu)
