From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Emerging Economies & AI; Japan; Lithuania-Belarus-Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya; Organization of Turkic States; Russia; Russia-China-Iran-North Korea; Tanzania; UK; US-Russia
Emerging Economies & AI
(Navin Girishankar and Andrea Leonard Palazzi – Center for Strategic & International Studies) Emerging economies are more optimistic than advanced ones about artificial intelligence (AI), but less prepared to adopt it. This gap could offer a “golden opportunity” for partnerships with the United States around AI standards, skills, and exports. – Is the Global South More Optimistic Than Prepared for AI?
Japan
(Kazuto Suzuki – Chatham House) Following a vote in the House of Representatives on 21 October, Japan has elected its first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Cabinet appointments are underway. But the Takaichi government now faces numerous challenges. Takaichi claims to be the successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his assertive Japanese foreign policy, which built new security partnerships, boosted defence spending, and expanded the remit of the country’s Self Defense Forces. But Takaichi’s ability to replicate Abe’s success is uncertain, as she leads a weakened Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), confronts a surging far right at home, and negotiates relations with an unpredictable US partner. – Sanae Takaichi sees herself as the successor to Shinzo Abe. But changes in Japan’s politics present big challenges | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Lithuania – Belarus – Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
(Dmitry Bolkunets – The Jamestown Foundation) After fleeing Belarus in 2020, opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya received unprecedented support from Lithuania and Western partners, including head-of-state-level security and diplomatic privileges. In October, Lithuania downgraded Tsikhanouskaya’s security, citing reduced threats and financial concerns. Public backlash led Lithuania to temporarily reinstate Tsikhanouskaya’s previous security level while reassessing long-term arrangements amid waning Western focus on Belarus. The Belarusian opposition depends on external funding and its sustainability hinges on the changeable priorities of the international democratic community. – Vilnius Downgrades Tsikhanouskaya’s Protection – Jamestown
Organization of Turkic States
(Sertaç Canalp Korkmaz – The Jamestown Foundation) The October 7 Summit of Heads of State of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) emphasized the organization’s growing role, introducing the OTS+ format to deepen multi-vector foreign policy and advance major initiatives. Leaders discussed enhancing regional security through proposals such as a joint OTS military exercise in 2026, greater defense collaboration, monitoring threats from Afghanistan, and coordination with North Atlantic Treaty Organization partners. The OTS is promoting Turkic cultural revival and economic integration, aiming to strengthen shared identity, expand trade and energy routes, and position member states as a central alternative to Russian energy supplies and east–west trade routes. – OTS Summit Advances Turkic Autonomy and Multi-Vector Foreign Policy – Jamestown
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is increasingly alarmed by the spread of Prometheanism, a set of ideas developed in pre-war Poland that posits that the Muscovite state is an empire, joint efforts can best achieve its end, and its demise will bring more good than harm. This trend is attracting expanded Russian attention as Kyiv attempts to expand its ties with non-Russians within President Vladimir Putin’s Russia and other countries, and analysts promote Promethean ideas in Russia and abroad. Russian propagandists now feel compelled to treat Prometheanism not as some dusty relic from an increasingly distant past but rather as an immediate threat to Russia requiring a forceful response from Moscow. – Moscow Alarmed by Revival and Spread of Promethean Ideas – Jamestown
Russia – China – Iran – North Korea
(Angela Stent – Atlantic Council) Russia’s war against Ukraine has brought it a new set of partners. While this group is sometimes referred to as an axis, in reality it is a set of intensifying bilateral ties with countries—China, Iran and North Korea—that are essential for Russia’s continued prosecution of the war. The presence of these countries’ leaders at the military parade in Beijing to commemorate the eightieth anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia—and their fulsome commitment to a new world order that the United States no longer dominates—suggests that these countries increasingly constitute an anti-US bloc, united not by shared values but by shared grievances. These three authoritarian states are essential allies not only in the war on Ukraine, but also in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan for a “post-West” global order. In Putin’s vision, this would be a multipolar world in which the United States has lost its “hegemonic” role and is only one of several great powers setting the global agenda. As Putin noted at the 2024 Valdai International Discussion Club, “What is at stake is the West’s monopoly, which emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and was held temporarily at the end of the twentieth century. But let me reiterate, as those gathered here understand: any monopoly, as history teaches us, eventually comes to an end.” – The CRINK: Inside the new bloc supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine – Atlantic Council
Tanzania
(Fergus Kell – Chatham House) Tanzania’s general election on 29 October is a historic moment in one respect. PresIDent Samia Suluhu Hassan – who came to power after the sudden death of her predecessor John Magufuli in 2021 – will be on the ballot for the first time. Her widely anticipated victory would be only the third time a woman has been popularly elected as president of an African country. But beyond this, the polls are more of a historical relic. – Tanzania election: Erosion of democracy will also come at the cost of economic potential | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
UK
(Joyce Hakmeh – Chatham House) As countries gather in Hanoi to sign the first-ever UN binding treaty on cybercrime, the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has issued a sobering assessment of the cyberthreats facing the country. The NCSC’s annual review, which comes after recent high-profile cyberattacks on British businesses, warned that the number of cyber incidents that pose a risk on a national level has risen dramatically. The agency classified nearly half of all the cyber incidents it handled in the past year as nationally significant – a record high. For a nation that prides itself on digital innovation, this should be a wake-up call. The UK needs to take decisive action to strengthen resilience, support businesses and secure critical infrastructure. Without these steps, the UK is at risk of a cascading cyber crisis scenario – where coordinated or interconnected attacks could spread rapidly across sectors, disrupting essential services, supply chains and the economy. The consequences would extend far beyond the digital realm, touching every part of society. – The UK must prioritize cybersecurity or be left dangerously exposed | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US – Russia
(Council on Foreign Relations) Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has implemented a broad sweep of sanctions focused on isolating Russia from the global financial system, reducing the profitability of its energy sector, and blunting its military edge. These added to a bevy of sanctions that the United States imposed on Russia after it annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014. The reelection of U.S. President Donald Trump injected uncertainty into the future of U.S. support for Ukraine, but his administration has not lifted or relaxed the sanctions regime against Russia implemented under his predecessor, Joe Biden. – Three Years of War in Ukraine: Are Sanctions Against Russia Making a Difference? | Council on Foreign Relations
