From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Armenia-Azerbaijan; China-Europe; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Europe-US; Russia; Russia-Afghanistan; UK-Indo Pacific; Ukraine; US
Armenia – Azerbaijan
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Abu Dhabi on July 10 for their first direct bilateral talks without mediators. Discussions included renewed momentum on the development of the Zangezur Corridor. Both Baku and Yerevan agreed on a continued dialogue and explored innovative solutions to the route’s development, including considerations for international management of the corridor. If a comprehensive agreement emerges, it could unlock an era of cooperation and development, with the Zangezur Corridor as a cornerstone of new transit integration between the South Caucasus, Central Asia, and Europe. – Abu Dhabi Summit Reignites Progress on Zangezur Corridor – Jamestown
China – Europe
(Yu Jie – Chatham House) The world is closely watching today’s China–EU summit in Beijing. Could US President Trump’s unorthodox approach to transatlantic alliances offer an opportunity to reset China’s ties with the EU and some of its member states? For now, that seems unlikely. The meeting is meant to mark 50 years of diplomatic ties but China and Europe remain divided over trade and the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, de-risking from China remains the continent’s leitmotif. – China–EU summit is unlikely to improve relations amid key differences on trade and Ukraine war | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(Tighisti Amare, Christopher Vandome – Chatham House) On 19 July, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) met with representatives of the M23 rebel group in Qatar to sign a declaration of principles, aimed at ending fighting in eastern DRC. The declaration outlines a framework for negotiations to start no later than 8 August, with a deadline for a finalized deal on 18 August. This is a significant step. For the first time, Kinshasa has agreed to formal talks with a group it previously labelled as a terrorist organization. The declaration is a stepping stone following an earlier agreement reached in the US between leaders of the DRC and Rwanda – the ‘Washington Accord’. That US-brokered agreement stops short of explicitly naming Rwanda’s alleged support for M23 – something documented by UN experts but denied by Kigali. But it does commit both parties to halting hostilities, ending support for armed groups, and respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity. On June 20, hailing the agreement, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that ‘This is a Great Day for Africa and, quite frankly, a Great Day for the World!’ – Qatari mediation and Trump’s Washington Accord are important steps to end violence in eastern DRC | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Europe – US
(Daniel S. Hamilton – Brookings) President Donald Trump’s threat to impose punishing tariffs on goods from the European Union (EU) as of August 1 has stunned Europe and prompted calls for the EU to retaliate with its own hefty tariffs on the United States. A closer look at Trump’s playbook, however, offers insights into ways the two parties might reach an initial arrangement that will satisfy no one but could avoid disaster. – How Europe can avoid a transatlantic trade war | Brookings
Russia
(Mathieu Boulègue – Chatham House) The weight of international sanctions and the demands of war have exposed and intensified existing shortcomings in Russia’s military-industrial base. Russia is currently struggling to build genuinely new and technologically advanced systems. Instead, it is relying on Soviet-era legacy systems and research. It is also heavily dependent on third-party suppliers to replace essential Western-made components – with import substitutions and domestic production failing to meet requirements. Despite Russia’s record levels of military spending, our research shows that the current state of its military industry is one of regression, contrary to what the Kremlin would have the world believe. Production will likely have to be simplified and slowed over the coming years, while Russia will be forced to accept reduced quality of outputs and will suffer from ‘innovation stagnation’ in its technological research and development. These problems are not insurmountable. Russia will continue to muddle through and keep producing systems that are ‘good enough’ to pose a sustained threat to Ukraine. But being ‘good enough’ to prolong a war against Ukraine is not the same as being able to keep up with Western (and Chinese) advances in military technology over the longer term. The West’s ultimate goal must be to encourage the degradation of Russia’s military industry, reducing the overall threat from Russia by creating the conditions for further decline. – Russia’s struggle to modernize its military industry | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Kassie Corelli – The Jamestown Foundation) Former Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead on July 7, reportedly due to suicide, just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin fired him from the position. The active replacement of Russian elites has been a regular occurrence in Russia since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and some suspect Starovoit’s death to be the result of intra-elite conflict. Starovoit’s death may be a symbol of a strengthening of the repressive character of the regime in an attempt to offset its growing instability as Putin’s power vertical weakens in the face of the continuing war. – Roman Starovoit’s Death Signals Waning Strength of Putin Regime – Jamestown
Russia – Afghanistan
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia became the first country to formally recognize the Taliban government in Kabul. Moscow has rationalized the move as a pragmatic concession in the fight against drug trafficking and emerging terrorist threats. While in some ways purely symbolic, the Kremlin’s decision is rooted in regional security concerns, centered on the spread of the Islamic State–Khorasan Province, which threatens the completion of several north-south connectivity projects. The globally isolated Taliban regime hopes that Moscow’s recognition will strengthen the legitimacy of its government while opening the way for Kabul to become a more central player in regional transit and counterterrorism operations. – Moscow Formally Recognizes Taliban Government in Afghanistan – Jamestown
UK – Indo Pacific
(Ben Bland, Olivia O’Sullivan, Chietigj Bajpaee – Chatham House) Although UK foreign policy has for some time acknowledged the Indo-Pacific’s importance to Britain’s long-term interests, the government has yet to articulate and instrumentalize a sufficiently coherent approach to the region. Worries over European security, and over unpredictable US foreign policy, have understandably dominated policy attention. This paper argues, however, that the UK does not have the luxury of focusing on one region or problem at a time. The government must update and give due strategic weight to the UK’s relationships in the Indo-Pacific, especially given the economic, security and climate-related risks and cooperation opportunities the region presents. A fully formed Indo-Pacific strategy is also vital to the UK’s ability to manage its relationship with China. The paper calls for the government to deepen joint initiatives with the so-called ‘Indo-Pacific Four’ (Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea), and to expand cooperation on trade, climate and maritime security in Southeast Asia. The UK also needs to do more to support regional integration and stability in South Asia, taking care to ensure that cultivation of the relationship with India does not eclipse much-needed efforts to develop links with other states. – Why the Indo-Pacific should be a higher priority for the UK | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Ukraine
(Jaroslava Barbieri – Chatham House) Last week Ukraine underwent its largest government reshuffle since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. On 17 July the Ukrainian Parliament approved Yulia Svyrydenko – previously first deputy prime minister and economy minister – as prime minister, alongside a new cabinet. In part, the reshuffle is an attempt to maintain Western military and financial assistance and mend relations with US President Donald Trump, following February’s diplomatic debacle in the Oval Office and months of turbulent relations. However, domestically the reshuffle is largely viewed as a continuation of the current political trajectory, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (and his chief of staff Andrii Yermak) making cosmetic changes and rewarding officials who have demonstrated loyalty and effectiveness during the war. Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party maintains a majority in parliament, giving the president significant influence over legislation. And the vast majority of ministers have retained the positions they had in the previous government. No new faces were added to the cabinet. The intention of the reshuffle is to support a strategy to boost Ukraine’s defence production, strengthen its strategic relationship with the US, and revitalize its war-weary economy. But the government must be careful not to be seen to waver in its commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, regardless of wartime necessity. – Ukraine’s government reshuffle aims to boost national resilience – and repair relations with Trump | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
US
(Soufan Center) Recent cuts to U.S. foreign aid and public broadcasting, along with broader reductions made throughout the year, have affected institutions that have long been foundational to American soft power — accelerating its ongoing decline. The PRC has adopted a more holistic soft power strategy, using U.S. funding cuts to quickly expand its influence and fill emerging gaps, as it continues to pursue control of the global narrative through propaganda at the core of its approach. Much like the PRC, Russia has moved to fill the gaps left by the U.S.; through coordinated “e-propaganda” campaigns, the Kremlin has promoted anti-Western and pro-Russian narratives. Analysts assess that the Trump administration’s funding cuts to cultural and humanitarian organizations are not just contributing to loss of the United States’ ability to shape international discourse but actively ceding it to rival powers. – Surrendering the Narrative: How U.S. Cuts to Soft Power Are Empowering Rivals – The Soufan Center
(Simran Kalkat, Tara Watson, and Jonathon Zars – Brookings) Children are increasingly living with adults old enough to receive retiree Social Security payments. We show that Social Security has become an increasingly important income support for children. With the Social Security trust fund projected to be exhausted by 2034, now is the time to start thinking about the role the program plays in keeping children out of poverty. The share of children living with an adult aged 62 and over—the earliest age at which an individual is eligible to receive retiree Social Security payments—has nearly doubled since the year 2000. – Social Security payments have become an increasingly relevant income support for children | Brookings
(Atlantic Council) “An industrial revolution, an information revolution, and a renaissance—all at once.” That’s how the Trump administration describes artificial intelligence (AI) in its new “AI Action Plan.” Released on Wednesday, the plan calls for cutting regulations to spur AI innovation and adoption, speeding up the buildout of AI data centers, exporting AI “full technology stacks” to US allies and partners, and ridding AI systems of what the White House calls “ideological bias.” How does the plan’s approach to AI policy differ from past US policy? What impacts will it have on the US AI industry and global AI governance? What are the implications for energy and the global economy? – Experts react: What Trump’s new AI Action Plan means for tech, energy, the economy, and more – Atlantic Council
