From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Africa
(Folashadé Soulé – Centre for International Governance Innovation) Rising geopolitical tensions among China, the United States and other major powers are making digital partnership negotiations between African stakeholders and these global actors more complex. China is becoming an increasingly popular choice among African states because the country typically offers more affordable technology options to achieve digital development goals than its Western counterparts. Negotiating Africa’s Digital Partnerships — a policy research project supported by the Centre for International Governance Innovation and hosted at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford — looks at how these partnerships are formed as African governmental actors seek new and rising partners to help build their digital capacity. The project involves interviews with African ministers, policy makers, the private sector, and civil society actors from both francophone and anglophone Africa with a focus on digital connectivity, infrastructure, digital sovereignty, norm-setting and governance issues. – Negotiating Africa’s Digital Partnerships amid Geopolitical Competition – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
Canada
(Aaron Shull, Michael Den Tandt – Centre for International Governance Innovation) On September 19, for the first time in our history, the Government of Canada published a list of its national intelligence priorities and made a public case for those priorities. Critics will dismiss this as an effort to burnish the national-security credentials of a tired government. But that would be an unfair assessment. This move, albeit long overdue, is necessary and welcome. – Canadian Intelligence Emerges from the Shadows: It’s About Time – Centre for International Governance Innovation (cigionline.org)
China
(Sunny Cheung – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has announced breakthroughs in semiconductor manufacturing, specifically in Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) lithography, as part of its effort to achieve technological self-sufficiency amid US sanctions. The DUV machines showcased by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) still lag significantly behind global leaders like ASML, especially in terms of overlay precision and the ability to produce advanced chips. Practical challenges persist in the PRC’s adoption and refining of DUV and Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography at scale. Low yield rates and high production costs due to having to rely on technological workarounds remain an obstacle. – MIIT Overhypes Lithography Breakthrough – Jamestown
(Chatham House) Experts discuss the current direction and challenges facing China’s leadership under Xi Jinping. – Can China still prosper under Xi? (chathamhouse.org)
Climate Action, Energy Transition, Sustainable Development
(Jorge Gastelumendi – Atlantic Council) The current climate adaptation finance gap is now estimated at up to $366 billion each year. The gap measures the difference between the projected cost of meeting climate adaptation goals compared to the amount of finance available and committed. It’s clear that the methods being used to finance climate adaptation are not effective. The world is falling short of its climate goals, and to meet them, it’s going to take radical changes to the global financial architecture. The current regulations and fees in the financial system put pressure on those already living with the heaviest burdens of climate change. – The private sector is stepping up on climate resilience. Now governments need to be willing partners. – Atlantic Council
European Union
(Xiaoxue Martin, Frans-Paul van der Putten – Clingendael) Foreign involvement in European seaports and logistics has increased, for example from countries like China. This negatively impacts the EU’s strategic autonomy. This report proposes a strategic policy framework for the EU and its Member States to better manage foreign involvement. – Port politics: Strategic autonomy and European ports | Clingendael
India
(R.K. Narang – Manohar Parrikar Institute) A monograph examines civil and military drone policies, organisational structures, technology development initiatives, ecosystems, strengths, challenges, and proposes a way forward. It recommends formulating a civil drone atmanirbharta policy, designating nodal ministry of drone technology, creating organisational structures for civil drone R&D, launching civil drone technology development initiatives and instituting course corrections in defence UAV development programs. It also emphasises that academia, Incubation Centres, private sector, public sector and users need to focus on filling drone technology gaps. It advocates creation of robust ecosystem comprising trial based certification, civil drone testing facilities, formulation of Indian standards, and standardisation guidelines in drones. It lays emphasis on atmanirbharta in critical drone technologies, sensors & payloads; creating indigenous design and Indigenous Content (IC) certification mechanisms, indigenously designed and iDEX products vertical in GeM and promulgating Design Linked Incentive (DLI) Scheme. Most importantly, it proposes formulation of military-civil technology fusion (MTCF) policy for making India atmanirbhar global drone hub@2030. – Military – Civil Technology Fusion (MCTF) For Making India Atmanirbhar Global Drone Hub@2030 | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
(Shayesta Nishat Ahmed – Manohar Parrikar Institute) As the semiconductor industry, vital for modern electronics, faces global supply chain disruptions, India is aiming to enhance its role in semiconductor manufacturing, driven by government initiatives like the National Policy on Electronics and substantial investments in semiconductor facilities. Despite challenges such as high costs and the need for skilled labour, India is making significant progress towards becoming a major player in the global semiconductor market. – India’s Strategic Push for Semiconductor Manufacturing | Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (idsa.in)
Iran – Turkey – Iraqi Kudistan
(Burcu Ozcelik – RUSI) Iran and Turkey increasingly risk clashing through proxies in Iraqi Kurdistan as Turkey escalates its operations against the PKK, further complicating regional dynamics amid the Gaza war. – An Uneasy Stalemate? Iran and Turkey Manoeuvre in Iraqi Kurdistan | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Middle East
(David Makovsky The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) The focus on the Israel-Hezbollah attacks has eclipsed the focus on both Gaza and the hostages. As the country is about to commemorate the horrors of October 7th, the families of the hostages increasingly feel that their cause is treated like yesterday’s news, especially in light of the possibility of a new war in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee this week that only half of the 101 hostages are still alive. Some hostage families have noted that this means more than the estimated third dead, as has been acknowledged by the Israel Defense Forces. – Reminder: The Hostages (or: Why an ‘All for All’ Deal Doesn’t Help Them) | The Washington Institute
(Middle East Institute) On the heels of a series of special operations and airstrikes to degrade and decapitate Hezbollah, Israel has intensified its campaign against the Tehran-backed militant group. Israeli warplanes have struck hundreds of Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including missile launchers, arms depots, and command-and-control centers. But as Israel’s Operation Northern Arrows moves ahead and casualties in the hundreds continue to mount, Lebanese fear what will happen to their country, while concerns grow that the conflict will escalate into an all-out regional war. In the latest installment of the Defense Rapid Reaction series, experts from MEI’s Defense & Security Program provide their views on the likely evolution of the Israeli-Hezbollah war, the potential for the conflict to draw in outside actors, as well as the impact of the war on global terrorist recruitment. – Defense Rapid Reaction: Israel expands its war aims to neutralize Hezbollah | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
(Middle East Institute) The Israel Defense Forces are ramping up attacks over Lebanon clearly designed to wholly destroy Hezbollah; having struck some 1,300 targets to date, the Israeli operation has killed at least 550, wounded over 1,800, and already displaced thousands, sowing widespread panic. As Lebanon continues to bear the devastating brunt of the Israeli campaign, Hezbollah will be increasingly at risk of losing credibility with those who want revenge for the widespread destruction and those angry at the militant group for unnecessarily dragging them into war. – Special Briefing: The war comes to Lebanon | Middle East Institute (mei.edu)
(Emile Hokayem – IISS) Hizbullah’s military response has not allowed it to achieve its aims, and the group now appears unprepared for a potential Israeli ground war. – Hizbullah on the back foot in spiralling conflict with Israel (iiss.org)
(Kabir Tanja – Observer Research Foundation) The recent attacks in Lebanon against Hezbollah using rigged pagers and walkie-talkies, purportedly orchestrated by Israel, has opened a new front in the conflict which has threatened to envelop the region since October last year. While the audaciousness of these strikes claims most of the headlines, the geopolitics of the region, and the traditional positions states have taken over the decades, were adrift much before the ongoing conflict in Gaza and now, southern Lebanon. – Following the shifts in the Middle East’s lucrative defence sector (orfonline.org)
(Bronwen Maddox – Chatham House) As Israel’s strikes in Lebanon increase, the question of its strategic intentions become more pressing. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has chosen to escalate the conflict with Hezbollah on its northern border, even though there is no resolution to the war with Hamas in Gaza, and at a time when violence in the West Bank, including from Israeli settlers, is rising. Why is Israel doing this? Most explanations point to tactical objectives, dealing with individual threats as they emerge. There is no indication of an underlying strategy for securing peace. Instead, some analysts worry that Israel’s intention may be to create conditions for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. – Could Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah open the way to a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities? | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Hanin Ghaddar – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) In less than a week, Israel has managed to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities, communications systems, and chain of command. First, exploding pagers and walkie-talkies undermined the group’s ability to communicate. Then came the assassination of operations commander Ibrahim Aqil on Friday—along with 14 top Radwan Force commanders—which was a major setback for the Lebanese militant group’s top leadership and command unit, the Jihad Council. From the founding members of Hezbollah’s military structure, only Ali Karaki survives today. – Will Hezbollah Choose to Keep Its Word—or Its Arsenal? | The Washington Institute
(Matthew Levitt – Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Like his recently killed predecessor, Ibrahim Aqil had a long history of killing Americans, Europeans, Israelis, Lebanese, and others perceived as obstacles to Hezbollah’s ambitions, and his experience as a military and terrorist commander will be difficult to replace. – The Death of (Another) Hezbollah Lifer | The Washington Institute
Russia
(Ksenia Kirillova – The Jamestown Foundation) As veterans from Moscow’s war in Ukraine return to Russia and are lauded as the “new elite,” crime rates are drastically increasing, creating a surge in violence across Russian society. The Kremlin’s loss of the monopoly on violence, combined with reduced numbers of police and the recidivism of criminals returning from the front, has led to violence becoming the “new norm” in Russia. The army is increasingly becoming a breeding ground for crime, including drug trafficking. Pro-war propagandists are normalizing the situation and advocating for soldiers to keep fighting despite this corruption. – Level of Violence in Russia Reaches New High as Veterans Return From War – Jamestown
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow is focusing on the Åland Islands as a potential target in the event of war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) now that the West has taken new steps to boost the defense of Gotland and the Svalbard islands. This Russian attention reflects the islands’ location astride key trade routes in the Baltic Sea and their complicated legal status. By international accord, they are neutral and demilitarized even though Finland, which has sovereignty there, is now in NATO. Many Finns have called on Helsinki to end this anomaly, but the Finnish government has resisted. New Russian commentaries about the Åland Islands and a Russian naval exercise near them could change that and make them a new hotspot in East-West relations. – Moscow Focusing on Åland Islands as Target in Event of War With NATO – Jamestown
Russia – BRICS
(Irina Dezhina – IFRI) At the fifteenth BRICS summit, held in Johannesburg, South Africa, from August 22 to 24, 2023, a resolution was adopted to extend an invitation to six new countries to join the organization: Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). All of these countries except Argentina duly became members of BRICS in 2024, with the expanded group known as BRICS+. In addition to the political and economic advantages, it is assumed that the incorporation of these new countries could potentially facilitate their scientific and technological development. – Russia and the New BRICS Countries: Potentials and Limitations of a Scientific and Technological Cooperation | Ifri
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Nigel Gould-Davies – IISS) The US and UK’s recent public indecision on whether to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western precision missiles provides lessons in how the West should, and should not, use diplomacy to serve its strategy. – Ukraine: the West’s clumsy missile diplomacy (iiss.org)
USA
(John Cookson – Atlantic Council) “Whoever inhabits the White House in January needs to recognize that the United States doesn’t have a choice now but to be involved in the world and to try to shape the international environment,” former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday during an Atlantic Council Front Page event at the inaugural Global Future Forum. “Great powers don’t mind their own business. So, the real question is: Do you want Russia and China to shape the international environment? Or do we want to shape the international environment with our allies?”. Rice’s discussion with Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe covered a wide range of pressing global issues, from Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s moves in the Indo-Pacific to the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and the stakes of the US presidential election in November. – Condoleezza Rice: ‘Do you want Russia and China to shape the international environment?’ – Atlantic Council
Wagner Group
(Antonio Giustozzi – RUSI) The Wagner Group’s information operations team, which has played a key role in the group’s activities in Africa, appears to have survived the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin – albeit in a reduced form. – What Next for Wagner’s Information Operations? | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
