From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: ASEAN; Bolivia; China-Russia-Arctic; Georgia; Libya; Nigeria; UN; US; US-Australia; US-China (Global Agricultural Trade); US-Russia
ASEAN
(Joshua Kurlantzick – Council on Foreign Relations) During their October 26–28 meeting, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is slated to discuss economic shifts and will likely promise more collaboration. But the bloc still lacks a coherent approach to internal conflicts, international tensions, and its position in the U.S-China trade war. – U.S.-China Tensions Cast Long Shadow Over ASEAN Summit | Council on Foreign Relations
Bolivia
(Miguel Escoto – Atlantic Council) Bolivian politics underwent a massive shift on Sunday, as voters ended nearly two decades of left-wing rule by electing Rodrigo Paz Pereira of the Christian Democratic Party as president. Primarily driven by a major economic crisis and distrust with the incumbent Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party, Bolivians have joined a regional shift away from leftist leadership. Yet, unlike the populist pendulum swings seen in neighboring Argentina and El Salvador, Bolivians appear to have chosen a more centrist and reformist path, rather than a far-right approach. As Paz begins his five-year presidential term on November 8, expect to see shifts in the country’s approach to the economy, foreign policy, and security. – What Bolivia’s move to the center means for its economy, foreign policy, and security – Atlantic Council
China – Russia – Arctic
(Sergey Sukhankin – The Jamestown Foundation) The maiden Arctic voyage of the Istanbul Bridge from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the U.K. via Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) halved transit time to 20 days, signaling potentially growing PRC–Russian cooperation in Arctic trade corridors. Despite the advantages of lower transit costs and time, the NSR faces major constraints, including seasonal navigability, lack of infrastructure, and sanctions that limit its current viability and competitiveness against traditional maritime routes such as the Suez Canal. The PRC’s use of the NSR reflects long-term strategic aims rather than short-term economic gain, as Beijing leverages Russia’s isolation to expand its Arctic presence—potentially setting the stage for future technological and geopolitical competition. – Beijing Eyes NSR Through Russia to Advance Arctic Goals – Jamestown
Georgia
(Beka Chedia – The Jamestown Foundation) Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has expanded its efforts to criminalize dissent and punish the opposition by criminalizing protests and creating a blacklist of individuals barred from political office. To maintain a quasi-democratic façade, Georgian Dream managed to persuade one of the so-called opposition parties, Gakharia–For Georgia, to cooperate in passing legislation, but the new measures could effectively establish a one-party state. The government’s actions drew international condemnation, including from the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission, which recommended that the Georgian government repeal several repressive measures, and Germany, which recalled its ambassador from Georgia. – Georgia Moves Toward One-Party State – Jamestown
Libya
(Dario Cristiani – The Jamestown Foundation) Islamic State’s Libyan network remains degraded but resilient, sustained by integration with transnational smuggling and financial networks in the country’s south and links to instability in Sudan and the Sahel. Political and militia fragmentation in Tripoli and Haftar’s dynastic consolidation in the east are deepening Libya’s governance vacuum—conditions that could enable jihadist regrouping. Recent IS arrests and renewed propaganda underscore Libya’s enduring role as a logistical and ideological hub, making coordinated border control and intelligence sharing with Sahelian and Mediterranean partners an urgent counterterrorism priority. – Weakened Islamic State Eyes Resurgence in Libya – Jamestown
Nigeria
(Aminah Mustapha – The Jamestown Foundation) Militant groups in Northern Nigeria, including Boko Haram and ISWAP, increasingly exploit encrypted messaging apps, social media algorithms, and AI tools to recruit, radicalize, and coordinate. Nigeria’s counterterrorism response has developed a legal framework and cyber units. Still, it remains hindered by weak implementation, poor interagency coordination, and an over-reliance on blunt tactics, such as network shutdowns. These evolving digital tactics pose a threat to regional stability across the Lake Chad Basin, raising urgent questions for international technology governance, particularly regarding AI regulation and encryption policy. – Nigerian Militants Increasingly Employ Digital Warfare – Jamestown
UN
(Landry Signé – Brookings) The United Nations works closely with regional and international organizations to promote peace, stability, and resilience in the world’s most vulnerable contexts, including small island developing states, landlocked countries, and least developed nations. Alongside institutions such as the Commonwealth, the U.N. plays a central mediating and convening role, facilitating dialogue, negotiation, and reconciliation in some of the world’s most complex and protracted conflicts. Through its peace and security architecture, the U.N. advances preventive diplomacy, supports peacekeeping and post-conflict reconstruction, and fosters multilateral cooperation as a cornerstone of collective security. Multilateralism remains an indispensable pathway for addressing the root causes of instability and enabling governments, civil society, and international partners to find common ground in pursuit of lasting peace. – The United Nations’ essential role in global peace and security | Brookings
US
(Alexander Noyes, Jesse R. Humpal – Brookings) The United States faces a moment of profound vulnerability, but also opportunity. The 2024 revelation that China’s Volt Typhoon hacking group had infiltrated U.S. critical infrastructure exposed a quiet but comprehensive threat: the ability of adversaries to disable the nation’s core systems—energy, water, telecommunications, logistics, and emergency response—without firing a shot. Using stealthy cyber techniques, Volt Typhoon and related Chinese, Russian, and Iranian operations represent a new form of warfare that blurs the line between peace and conflict. America’s adversaries are waging long-term campaigns aimed at paralyzing national systems before open hostilities ever begin. This is a glimpse of modern warfare: quiet, asymmetric, and already underway. After decades when major conflict seemed confined to foreign theaters or counterterrorism operations, total war is back. The United States should respond forcefully but defensively by adopting a whole-of-society strategy of resilience. Allies such as Finland, Sweden, and Poland have shown that comprehensive defense, engaging every sector and citizen, can build unity and practical readiness without militarization. The United States must adapt these lessons to its own scale and character, emphasizing “resilience in place” through coordinated leadership, civic participation, and public-private cooperation. – Why the US needs a total defense strategy based on resilience | Brookings
US – Australia
(Gracelin Baskaran and Kessarin Horvath – Center for Strategic & International Studies) President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have signed a landmark Critical Minerals Framework, marking a major step toward advancing both nations’ ambitions for energy and minerals dominance. The agreement—finalized after five months of negotiations—aims to accelerate the buildout of resilient, allied mineral supply chains and reduce reliance on adversaries. – Unpacking the U.S.-Australia Critical Minerals Framework Agreement
US – China (Global Agricultural Trade)
(Philip Luck, Hugh Grant-Chapman, and Duc Minh Nguyet (Moon) Nguyen – Center for Strategic & International Trade) The U.S. agricultural sector is once again caught in the crossfire of the U.S.-China trade war. For decades, China’s immense agricultural market has been a top destination for U.S. exports. Now, as Washington and Beijing escalate tariffs and other retaliatory measures, U.S. farmers are scrambling to find new buyers just as Chinese consumers turn to alternative suppliers. Unlike the 2018 trade war, which was estimated to have slashed U.S. agricultural exports by more than $27 billion, the current dispute is compounded by rising input costs and labor shortages at home. The result is not merely a short-term disruption; it could signal a sweeping reconfiguration of global agricultural trade stretching from Latin America to Europe and Australia. – When a Trade War Becomes a Food Fight
US – Russia
(Atlantic Council) “It was time,” President Donald Trump said on Wednesday as he announced that the United States was ratcheting up sanctions on Russia. The new measures—the first such action against Russia in Trump’s second term—target Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as more than thirty subsidiaries. The sanctions come as US-led efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine have stalled, with a proposed meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump in Budapest now cancelled. How much of a punch do the new sanctions pack? How might Moscow respond? – How will Trump’s new Russian oil sanctions shift the war? – Atlantic Council
