From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Indonesia, Lebanon, Middle East, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine, Southeast Asia, Syria, US, US-Mexico, Davos 2025 (all the sessions)
Indonesia
(Made Supriatma – FULCRUM)
A plan to expand the Indonesian Army’s domestic reach suggests the potential reassertion of “dual function” under its new president. That this is aimed at rolling out free meals — for now — is insufficient consolation to those who fear the return of the military into Indonesia’s politics. – Expansion of the Indonesian Army: A Creeping Dual Function? | FULCRUM
Lebanon
(Hanin Ghaddar, Ehud Yaari – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy)
In his first speech as prime minister, Nawaf Salam stated that he would “immediately start coordinating” with new president Joseph Aoun to “rebuild the project for the new Lebanon,” adding that he wants to work with all Lebanese people and factions. As expected from an International Court of Justice official with a history of condemning Israel, Salam was also very critical of Israel’s occupation “of Lebanese land.” Yet his main focus was laying out his plans and promises to the Lebanese people. In addition to reforms and reconstruction, he emphasized four top objectives: fully implementing the Taif Accord, signed in 1990 to end after the country’s civil war; implementing every term of the ceasefire agreement signed with Israel last November; ensuring that “state authority is established across all Lebanese territory”; and seeking justice for the victims of the 2020 Beirut port explosion. – Lebanon’s New Prime Minister Approaches the Next Crossroads on Hezbollah | The Washington Institute
Middle East
(Carolyn Moorman, Siddhant Kishore, Kelly Campa, Johanna Moore, Ria Reddy, Ben Rezaei, Katherine Wells, Avery Borens, and Brian Carter – Institute for the Study of War)
Gaza Strip: Hamas coordinated the distribution of aid and facilitated the movement of Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, which demonstrates that Hamas retains some degree of governing authority after 15 months of war. These tasks make Hamas the de facto governing body in the Gaza Strip, at least in certain areas. The activities listed above—distribution and protection of aid and “monitoring” returnees—do not indicate that Hamas runs a Gazan government like it did prior to October 7, however.
IDF Resignations: The IDF chief of staff and Southern Command commander both resigned on January 21. Both officers said that they took responsibility for failing to prevent Hamas’ October 7 attack into Israel.
Syrian Democratic Forces: The US-backed SDF faces resource and bandwidth constraints as it contends with separate and possibly existential fights with Arab tribal forces and a potential Turkish. The Arab tribal attacks against the SDF may imperil the SDF’s ability to defend against a Turkish or Turkish-backed offensive.
Iraqi Militia Disarmament: The head of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba’s political bureau claimed on January 19 that the group would disarm only if Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani “frankly or directly” requested its disarmament. Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba leader Akram al Kaabi has previously said that this militia takes its political and religious direction from Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei instead of Sistani. Kaabi’s previous statement that Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba takes direction from Khamenei is inconsistent with Asadi’s invocation of Sistani’s authority.
Iraqi Politics: An “official source” told Iraqi media that the Shia Coordination Framework supports legislation that would replace the Accountability and Justice Commission with a judicial body that would vet political candidates.
Russia in Syria: Russia may have reached an agreement with the HTS-led interim government to evacuate Russian military assets from Syria. The HTS-led interim government also suspended Russian investment and financial involvement in the port of Tartus. – Iran Update, January 21, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine
(Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Nate Trotter, William Runkel, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War)
Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Russian defense industrial enterprises and oil refineries in Russia on the night of January 20 to 21 as part of an ongoing strike series aimed at degrading Russian military capacity.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces also continue to conduct strikes against Russian command posts in the Russian rear.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping held a phone call on January 21 and emphasized deepening cooperation.
Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Alexander Khinshtein’s recent appointment has thus far failed to solve or distract from Russia’s failure to adequately respond to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Pokrovsk.
Russian ultranationalist milbloggers renewed complaints against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for failing to hold the Russian military command accountable for military failures. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 21, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
Southeast Asia
(Prapimphan Chiengkul – FULCRUM)
The 29th United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference (COP29) ended in much frustration in Azerbaijan last year. The agreement on the new climate finance goal is a disappointment to Southeast Asia, which urgently needs more funding to tackle and adapt to climate change. – Southeast Asia’s Frustration with the State of Climate Finance | FULCRUM
Syria
(Gregory Waters – Middle East Institute)
Syria’s first post-Assad protests broke out on Dec. 25 after a video claiming to show the destruction of an Alawite shrine spread rapidly across Facebook. The video was quickly debunked as several weeks old, the shrine only partially damaged, and the damage occurring during the capture of Aleppo city rather than in an act of sectarian vandalism. But those first hours were enough to stir up the widespread fears lingering just below the surface among Syria’s Alawite minority, bringing many Alawites (as well as Sunnis) to the streets to denounce sectarianism. Rumors of apparently sectarian-motivated violations by Syria’s new security forces against minorities have been widespread since Dec. 9, the day after the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad — rumors fueled by both pro-Assad fake news campaigns and the very real violations that had occurred within these communities. Many of these rumors are impossible to verify, while others are quickly disproven by fact-checking organizations like Verify-Sy. But the new government’s apparent use of extra-judicial executions of local ex-regime criminals has only cemented fears that innocent civilians are being targeted purely over their religion, while the lack of transparency has enabled others to impersonate security forces and carry out their own crimes. – Security in Alawite regions in post-Assad Syria | Middle East Institute
US
(Jorge Gastelumendi – Atlantic Council)
Yet again, President Donald Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement on climate change. The United States’ repeated withdrawal (Trump withdrew in his first term, then President Joe Biden rejoined) will not halt the global efforts to meet the 2015 Paris goals to limit global temperature rise. The climate crisis has moved far beyond the capacity for the United States to solve it unilaterally. Nevertheless, this decision will make progress more challenging and implementation more tenuous since the United States is one of the largest emitters. – The US retreat on climate comes with steep costs for the economy and the American people – Atlantic Council
(Just Security)
On Jan. 20, President Donald Trump began his term with presidential actions including 26 executive orders, with more expected to follow. – Collection: Coverage of Trump Administration’s Executive Actions
US – Mexico
(Stephen Coulthart, Guillermo Vázquez del Mercado – Lawfare)
Intelligence cooperation between Mexico and the United States is critical to managing shared challenges. Joint intelligence operations brought dangerous cartel leaders like Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman to justice and helped officials track undocumented mass migration, weapon trafficking, bulk cash flows, and human smuggling. – Uncertain Times Ahead for U.S.-Mexico Intelligence Cooperation | Lawfare
Davos 2025
(WEF)
A special address by Ding Xuexiang, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of China – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(WEF)
A special address in person by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(WEF)
A special address by Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(WEF)
A special address by Olaf Scholz, Federal Chancellor of Germany – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Bob Sternfels, Samir Saran – WEF)
Global cooperation has declined in recent years, with the risk of international relations stalling at a “new, non-cooperative normal”. Yet, amid the competition and confrontation, there are positive trends, particularly on joint climate action and in areas of collaborative innovation. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Cristina Mittermeier, Peter Thomson – WEF)
Some 71% of the Earth’s surface is water in the form of oceans and seas that provide invaluable contributions to human health, food security and economies, yet Sustainable Development Goal 14 remains the least funded of all 17 global goals. Deep-dive into a visual journey of the ocean with multi-award-winning photographer, marine biologist and environmental activist Cristina Mittermeier, who uses art as a platform to showcase that time is running out to conserve and protect the ocean. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Jennifer Johnson, Denelle Dixon, Lesetja Kganyago, Brian Armstrong, Anthony Scaramucci, Spriha Srivastava – WEF)
From possible regulatory shifts in the US to the uneven adoption of central bank digital currencies around the world, the prospects for digital assets are shifting rapidly. What is the outlook for these assets and how could policy changes impact the financial system? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Rodrigo Liang, Yin Fan, Amandeep Singh Gill, Christina Kosmowski – WEF)
The insatiable demand for semiconductor chips is surging, powered by a future where hyperconnected environments are the norm. In this world, every interaction – from the touchscreens of a smart city to the whispers of connected homes and the holograms of wearable tech – relies on advanced chips for limitless connectivity. As the digital landscape grows more intricate, how will industries evolve to meet the escalating need for technologies that are not only faster and smarter but also secure, productive and infinitely scalable? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Akazawa Ryosei, Gideon Rachman, Takeshi Hashimoto, Milojko Spajić, Busi Mabuza – WEF)
With new leadership at the helm, Japan is poised to redefine its economic and geopolitical strategies, navigating a landscape marked by global and regional uncertainties. In this evolving environment, what is Japan’s strategy to revitalize its economy, restore global economic cooperation and reinforce regional stability? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Cedrik Neike, Almar Latour, Cathy Li, Aidan Gomez, Anais Rassat – WEF)
AI adoption is growing rapidly, with 65% of organizations experimenting with generative AI. However, the journey from experimentation to large-scale impact remains a significant hurdle. Only 16% of companies are prepared for AI-enabled reinvention, and 74% face critical barriers to scaling AI solutions. To bridge this gap, the World Economic Forum unveils findings and solutions from its Industries in the Intelligent Age white paper series and unveils AI use cases showcasing adoption and scaling possibilities for the growth of the global economy. Following these findings, the Forum launches the Frontier MINDS—a program to spotlight and accelerate the most impactful AI solutions capable of revolutionizing industries and addressing society’s grand challenges, enabling organizations worldwide to scale AI in ways that maximize positive impact. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Bob Willen, Vincent Clerc, Dani Rodrik, Tengku Zafrul Bin Tengku Abdul Aziz, Martin Wolf, Kimberly Clausing – WEF)
As a revival of economic nationalism and industrial policy reshapes the world, governments are racing to shore up their readiness to attract investment and establish next-generation industrial hubs within their borders. With value chains simultaneously becoming more complex and regional, how can national industrial agendas be balanced with global economic cooperation in this competitive environment? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Luís Roberto Barroso, Eduardo Paes, Ilona Szabó de Carvalho, Helder Barbalho, Luana Marques Garcia Ozemela – WEF)
After three consecutive years of near 3% growth, Brazil is set to implement new environmental, social and tax reforms. The country now enters a pivotal phase to address broad socio-economic challenges, such as inequality, the energy transition and security. How will Brazil prepare to manage these challenges in the year ahead as it takes on global roles, such as the COP30 presidency? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Ernesto Torres Cantu, Mirek Dušek, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Anna Bjerde, Badr Jafar – WEF)
The global aid and development landscape is increasingly positioning the private sector at the forefront of a new approach to development. With the impact-investing market now exceeding $1 trillion, there is a growing opportunity for investment capital to reach new markets. Who is driving this new vision for development to create market-driven, social and economic progress in frontier markets? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Nela Richardson, Andrew Ng – WEF)
The rapid adoption of AI, automation and augmentation is reshaping industries and redefining jobs and skills globally. This session delves into findings from the Future of Jobs Report 2025, analysing how AI is transforming labor markets, automating tasks, augmenting human work and reshaping skills. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Bernd Montag, Muhammad Ali Pate, Fifi Peters, Catherine Russell, Anita Zaidi – WEF)
Women spend on average 25% more of their lives in poor health compared to men. By addressing this disparity, it could not only improve the health and lives of millions of women but also boost the global economy by at least $1 trillion annually by 2040. What innovations are needed to make women’s health a lasting global priority? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(William Marshall, Fatou Jeng, M. Sanjayan, Rosmarie Wydler-Wälti, Alicia Bárcena Ibarra, Johanna Hoffman – WEF)
Climate change disproportionately displaces vulnerable populations with limited resources to adapt or relocate. Rising sea levels, extreme weather and environmental degradation force millions from their homes, worsening poverty and instability. How can communities mitigate climate impacts and build resilience to climate change? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Børge Brende, Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, David M. Rubenstein, Marcus Wallenberg – WEF)
The global economy faces a challenging landscape with 80% of the world population experiencing slower growth than in the pre-COVID decade. At the same time, trade barriers have tripled as sanctions, tariffs and subsidies have become a geostrategic tool for governments. What steps can leaders take to not only navigate today’s economic landscape but also find paths to economic cooperation? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Helder Barbalho, Jesper Brodin, Simon Stiell, Diana Olick, Mukhtar Babayev, Damilola Ogunbiyi – WEF)
After almost a decade since the Paris Agreement changed the global landscape of net zero, several open questions remain on how to increase the speed and scale of inclusive climate action. What is on the agenda for COP30 in Brazil and how can all stakeholder groups unlock a new era for collaboration on climate and nature? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Fatih Birol, Meghan O’Sullivan, Maria da Graça Carvalho, Kgosientso Ramokgopa, Muhammad Taufik, Jonathan Price – WEF)
With energy demand on the rise and clean energy investments expected to reach $2 trillion in 2024, the demand for materials continues to grow. In an increasingly volatile geopolitical and technological landscape, where should leaders focus their attention to effectively shape the geoeconomics of energy and materials? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Peter Sands, Winnie Byanyima, Helen E. Clark – WEF)
Recent breakthroughs in long-acting medicines can revolutionize the HIV response, making possible an end to AIDS-related deaths and to new HIV infections. As science advances, how can we overcome barriers to access and scale these innovations to ensure a future free from AIDS? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Hiroaki Kitano, Cristiano Amon, Aiman Ezzat, Jeremy Jurgens, Magdalena Skipper, Aidan Gomez – WEF)
As the technology ecosystem evolves, encompassing advancements in AI, biotechnology, edge computing, robotics and beyond, the interdependence of these technologies presents immense opportunities and complex challenges. How can we pave the way for unprecedented growth and innovation in our interconnected future? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Steve Sedgwick, Adena Friedman, Faisal Alibrahim, Lawrence H. Summers, Ana Botín – WEF)
Global growth remains slow, projected at 3.3% in 2025, which is markedly lower than the global trend growth over the past 30 years of around 4%. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains high as the world continues to recover from economic shocks and navigates the changing geoeconomics. What are the pathways to transition from the growth we have to the growth we need, growth that is not only faster but also more sustainable and aligned with national and global policy priorities? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Jin Keyu, Raghuram G. Rajan, Kenneth Rogoff – WEF)
In recent years the US dollar has gradually strengthened and now is at its most appreciated level since the 1980s. Join this town hall to understand the dollar’s role in the future amid ongoing financial fragmentation, global debt concerns and growing interest in digital currencies. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Demis Hassabis, Ardem Patapoutian, Alison Snyder – WEF)
From predicting proteins’ structures to understanding the complexity of the human brain, the use of AI is propelling scientific progress across fields. How are the latest scientific insights shifting our understanding of the neural processes that generate intelligence and how can they tackle real-world challenges? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Peter Lucas Kaaka Jones, Amanda Graf, Helena Leurent, Lauren Woodman, Bilel Jamoussi – WEF)
In an increasingly digital world where over 5 billion people are online and the average person spends more than six hours a day on the internet, safety and accountability must extend beyond the physical realm. What principles and practical approaches are needed to identify and reduce digital risks, prevent harm and promote trust and safety online? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Isabella M. Weber – WEF)
Nations across the world, especially developed economies, face a stark demographic challenge as births fall below the replacement level and jeopardize future economic output. At the same time, many of those same nations are at the forefront of adopting cutting-edge technologies. This session explores the impact of technologies on productivity and the extent to which their adoption can counteract the impacts of population decline on GDP. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Masomah Ali Zada, Filippo Grandi, Tirana Hassan – WEF)
In the summer of 2024, the Refugee Olympic and Paralympic Teams highlighted the talent and resilience of individuals forced to flee their homes, culminating in remarkable achievements and medals for both teams. This session explores the role of sport in empowering refugees, drawing on personal experiences and examining the socio-economic challenges and opportunities tied to global displacement. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Jamie Heller, Jakob Stausholm, Anindya Novyan Bakrie, Bonginkosi Emmanuel “Blade” Nzimande, Elizabeth Shuler, Pan Jian – WEF)
Despite slowing electric vehicle sales growth in the US and Europe, over 30 million new EVs are expected on the road in 2027. To scale production, manufacturers are racing to secure reliable and sustainable supply chains for critical components and materials. From batteries to critical minerals to skills, what strategies are manufacturers and policy-makers adopting to meet the increasing demand? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Joumanna Bercetche, Bill Winters, C.S. “Venkat” Venkatakrishnan, Robin Vince, Mary Callahan Erdoes, Sheikh Bandar Bin Mohammed Bin Saoud Al-Thani – WEF)
Macroeconomic headwinds, geopolitical tensions and technological changes are converging to test the resilience of the banking sector and increase the pressure on financial institutions to quickly adapt their business models. In this context, it is clear that the banks of the future must look and operate differently from the past. How can the banking sector build in resilience as it navigates a time of transformational change? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Walter Mead, Allison Schrager, Ian Bremmer, Graham Allison, Alessandra Galloni – WEF)
The incoming Republican administration has promised ambitious policy shifts, such as raising tariffs, streamlining bureaucracy, reforming immigration and rolling back regulations. – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Rachel Morison, Anna Borg, Martin Lundstedt, Ester Baiget, Marc Ferracci – WEF)
While Europe’s climate targets are among the most ambitious globally, its ability to reach its 2050 climate neutrality target is at risk as voters and businesses worry about the cost of the transition. Yet, Europe’s drive to marry decarbonization and economic competitiveness remain undiminished and it has demonstrated its ability to achieve growth while decarbonizing. What is the future for European climate ambition in a more competitive world? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Mohamed Kande, Luc Triangle, Ravi Kumar S., Mina Al-Oraibi, May Habib – WEF)
AI tools are rapidly becoming embedded in workforces, promising huge productivity gains but also raising serious concerns over job displacement and deepening inequality. How can we avoid an augmented workforce divided into winners and losers? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Paul Hudson, Amin Nasser, Julie Sweet, Ramon Laguarta, Sara Eisen, Matt Garman – WEF)
While 83% of executives see AI as a strategic priority for their organizations, there are significant variations in maturity and adoption across sectors. What is needed to go beyond AI’s promise of revolutionizing industries and tap into the technology’s potential? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
(Niall Ferguson, Masood Ahmed – WEF)
We cannot understand the world without understanding demographic change. The dramatic reduction in fertility rates has led demographers to revise their projections, now expecting population to peak well within this century. What will this demographic shift mean for economies and societies? – World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025 | World Economic Forum
