From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, China-Taiwan, China-US, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eurasia, Europe-Mercosur, Germany-Middle East, India, India-France, India-Maldives, Information Operations, Libya, Middle East, PKK-Turkey, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), Terrorism, US, US-Europe, US-Greenland
Asia – Africa Growth Corridor
(Prithvi Gupta – Observer Research Foundation) The Indo-Japanese bilateral relationship is pivotal in upholding the free and open rules-based order in the broader international relations milieu today. In the past two decades, successive national governments of the two countries have undertaken steps to deepen strategic cooperation across all domains. In the face of global fragmentation, polarisation, and inward-looking global powers, the partners remain invested in maintaining and strengthening the free, open, and inclusive rules-based global order. The Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) was established in 2017 by the Indian and Japanese governments to further democratic, sustainable, and inclusive development in Africa, which is increasingly emerging as a theatre of great-power contestation in a fragmented global order. The corridor starts from the Yokohama and Tokyo ports in Japan and Mumbai in India, connecting the bilateral partners to Africa’s east coast in Tanzania. The AAGC’s foundations consist of four pillars: capacity and skills enhancement; quality infrastructure and institutional connectivity; development and cooperation projects; and people-to-people partnerships. However, due to domestic political upheavals and changing foreign policy priorities in both India and Japan, the corridor is yet to be materialised. – Revitalising the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor
China – Taiwan
(Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, Alison O’Neil, Karina Wugang, Grant Morgan – Institute for the Study of War)
Taiwanese civil society groups have now submitted 52 recall petitions, 36 of which target opposition legislators and 16 of which target legislators from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The 2024 legislative election results and recent polling suggest that up to 12 Kuomintang (KMT) and 6 DPP legislators are at risk of getting recalled.
Taiwanese prosecutors indicted former KMT legislator Chang Hsien-yao on February 12 for allegedly acting on behalf of the PRC to interfere in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election.
The US State Department revised its Taiwan Fact Sheet to remove language that states it does not support Taiwan independence. The PRC criticized the change and may use it to frame future PRC actions toward Taiwan as responses to US escalation.
Russian and PRC military and surveillance assets operated in southern Japanese waters and airspace in February, according to the Japanese government.
South Korea expressed support for Taiwan’s participation in international organizations for the first time, as part of a trilateral joint statement issued with the United States and Japan at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on February 15. – China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 20, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
China – US
(Antara Ghosal Singh – Observer Research Foundation) On 1 February 2025, United States (US) President Donald Trump signed an executive order to impose additional tariffs on products from Canada, Mexico, and China. However, following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo on 3 February, Trump agreed to postpone the implementation of tariffs by a month. There were also discussions about a prospective call between the Chinese and American leaders on the same day, which apparently could not take place. On 4 February, President Trump announced that he is not “in a rush” and would speak to the Chinese leader at an “appropriate time”. China responded by announcing a slew of retaliatory measures on the same day. First, it imposed additional tariffs of 10-15 percent on 80 imported goods originating from the US. Additionally, it included US companies like PVH Corp. and Illumina Inc. in the ‘Unreliable Entity’ list, implemented stringent export controls on key minerals like tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, initiated investigations into Google Inc. for a suspected violation of China’s Anti-Monopoly Law, and officially sued the US at the World Trade Organization. – Chinese discourse on Trump tariff
Colombia
(UN News) Around 80,000 people in northeastern Colombia are suffering the devastating consequences of an armed conflict that escalated on 15 January of this year. Caught in the crossfire between armed groups, thousands have been forced to flee with nothing but the clothes on their backs while others remain trapped in their homes. – Colombia: Fleeing the thunder of violence in Catatumbo | UN News
(Júlia Palik – Peace Research Institute Oslo) In 2016, the Colombian government and the guerrilla group FARC-EP ended their five decade-long war. As part of the peace agreement, FARC-EP’s weapons had to be collected, a process known as disarmament. By 2017, UN observers had received and removed over 8,112 guns, 1.3 million rounds of ammunition, 22 tons of explosives, 3,000 grenades and 1,000 landmines. – How Colombia’s Disarmament Process Transformed Weapons Into Symbols of Peace – PRIO Blogs
Democratic Republic of the Congo
(UN News) The UN Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution on Friday that strongly condemned the ongoing offensive and advance of M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). – Security Council urges Rwanda to stop supporting M23 in eastern DR Congo | UN News
(UN News) The continued occupation of North Kivu in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) by the M23 armed group has “severely constrained” the UN stabilisation force’s ability to protect civilians and carry out lifesaving operations, the mission chief Bintou Keita told reporters on Friday. – DR Congo crisis: Occupation blocks UN mission from protecting civilians | UN News
(UN News) The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, has launched a $40.4 million appeal to address the deepening humanitarian crisis in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its impact on neighbouring countries, particularly Burundi, where thousands are arriving daily in desperate conditions. – Urgent appeal launched as DR Congo crisis fuels mass displacement to Burundi | UN News
Eurasia
(Anna J. Davis – The Jamestown Foundation) The first quarter of this century has proven that relations within Eurasia as a region and its relations with the rest of the world are unpredictable and volatile. The factors dividing this region often appear far more salient than any similarities. One of the core experiences that this entire region shares is a simultaneous and individual new beginning after breaking from an oppressive past in the late 1980s and early 1990s. For many, the task of achieving the goals and expectations developed at that time remains in progress and, for some, has reached an inflection point. – Grappling With Reality From the Baltic to the Bering – Jamestown
Europe – Mercosur
(Anna Ayuso, Susanne Gratius – CIDOB) El nuevo acuerdo entre la Unión Europea y el Mercosur ha recibido respuestas desiguales: los entusiastas señalan las oportunidades para relanzar un comercio en retroceso y su valor geopolítico en un contexto global de tensiones competitivas; sin embargo, el campo ha vuelto a salir a las calles defendiendo sus intereses y el ecologismo cuestiona su sostenibilidad. ¿Es posible llegar a un acuerdo o la UE seguirá la estela del repliegue de Washington? – Una nueva oportunidad para el acuerdo UE-Mercosur en tiempos convulsos
Germany – Middle East
(Nir Levitan – BESA Center) The German Navy is facing new challenges in the Middle East ranging from arms smuggling to air defense. These challenges are developing in the context of increasing escalation in Europe, particularly in the Baltic Sea and in Northern Europe. – Germany’s Expanded Role in the Mediterranean
India
(Devendra Pratap Pandey – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) This article delves into India’s enduring and adaptive strategic culture, shaped by millennia of history, culture and tradition. Despite facing invasions and colonial subjugation, India’s strategic consciousness has evolved to confront contemporary challenges while upholding its foundational principles. By exploring India’s historical experiences, values and evolving strategic framework, this study challenges prevailing misconceptions about the depth and resilience of India’s strategic culture. It not only refutes perceptions of fragmented leadership and strategic passivity but also underscores India’s inherent unity and adaptability in the addressing global challenges. Through a nuanced examination, the article highlights India’s rising global influence and its transformative impact on international affairs. – Dispelling Misconceptions: India’s Strategic Depth and Leadership Prowess – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
India – France
(Rajiv Nayan – Manohar Parrikar Institute) From 10 to 11 February 2025, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited France, where he co-chaired the multilateral Artificial Intelligence Action Summit. His visit also included bilateral discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron, resulting in a joint statement, several Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), new agreements and amendments to existing ones.One key area of cooperation was the nuclear sector, reinforcing the long-standing India–France partnership in nuclear energy, science and technology. – The India–France Nuclear Partnership in Focus – MP-IDSA
India – Maldives
(Diksha Jain – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) The ongoing 13th edition of the bilateral ‘Ekuverin Exercise’ between India and the Maldives, which commenced on February 02, 2025, has just concluded on February 16, 2025. This seeks to improve interoperability in counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism efforts while emphasising joint Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) (Indian Defence News, 2025). The nations aim to renew their defence partnership following recent tensions through this exercise. – India-Maldives Defence Ties: Balancing Regional Security in The Indian Ocean – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
Information Operations
(Daniel Eerhart – Foreign Policy Research Institute) The concept of “iatrogenic influence” highlights how information operations can unintentionally produce harmful outcomes, counteracting the influence objectives the operations sought to achieve. Case studies from the Global War on Terror, including Camp X-Ray detainee photos, soccer balls with religious symbols, and culturally insensitive leaflets, demonstrate how misaligned messaging strategies led to unintended backlash and further fueled adversary narratives. Key indicators of iatrogenic influence are identifiable during operational planning. Some of the most common indicators include targeting broad audiences, using inconsistent delivery methods, failing to account for cultural differences, and lacking feedback mechanisms. Mitigating the risks of iatrogenic influence requires implementing culturally informed message development, narrowing audience focus, establishing real-time feedback mechanisms, and emphasizing ethical integrity to ensure that information operations are effective and culturally sensitive. – Iatrogenic Influence in Information Operations: Lessons from the Global War on Terror – Foreign Policy Research Institute
Libya
(Tim Eaton – Chatham House) Migrant smuggling and trafficking has flourished through Libya since its 2011 conflict. This article explains how this happened and why European policies aimed at addressing the issue are inadequate. Migrant smuggling generally refers to the movement of people with their consent; while Trafficking in Persons refers to the movement of people against their will – though the distinction is not clear cut and journeys often combine elements of the two. In particular, women have been disproportionately impacted by trafficking. – How conflict in Libya facilitated transnational expansion of migrant smuggling and trafficking | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Middle East
(Kelly Campa, Carolyn Moorman, Annika Ganzeveld, Ben Rezaei, Ria Reddy, Johanna Moore, Avery Borens, Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War)
Iranian Rhetoric: Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari—adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander—threatened to attack “all [US] bases and ships in the region” during a speech at the Great Prophet 19 military exercise on February 20.
Hayat Tahrir al Sham and Syrian Democratic Forces Negotiations: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi said that he and Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara agreed on “general principles” but still disagree on “practical details,” which likely refers to the integration of the SDF into the Syrian army.
Syrian Constitution: The Syrian Preparatory Committee continued “dialogue sessions” for Raqqa, Hasakah, and Rif Dimashq provinces in Damascus on February 21.
Iraqi Politics: The United States reportedly threatened to sanction the Iraqi federal government if it prevents the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from resuming oil exports. – Iran Update, February 21, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(UN News) Since the ceasefire on 19 January, some 138,000 Palestinians have benefited from cash assistance, including people with disabilities and pregnant and breastfeeding women. The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reported that market conditions across Gaza have improved since the ceasefire took effect. Goods are reportedly less expensive, and more commodities are available. – Nearly 148,000 in Gaza receive cash aid | UN News
PKK – Turkey
(Soner Cagaptay – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Turkey is reportedly on the cusp of a historic announcement by Abdullah Ocalan, jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), with sources indicating he may soon ask the movement’s members to disband and end their longstanding fight against the government. Resolving the state’s five-decade conflict with a designated terrorist group would have momentous repercussions on a wide range of issues, from Turkish politics at home to bilateral ties abroad. For one, it could remove the PKK thorn from U.S.-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration. It would also affect developments next door in Syria, where Washington has partnered with the PKK’s Syrian branch, the People’s Defense Units (YPG), since 2014 to fight the Islamic State—rousing Turkey’s ire in the process. Yet what are the deal’s actual chances for success, and what specific implications might it hold for the many relevant actors in the region and beyond? – Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 1): Kurdish Actors and Interests | The Washington Institute
(Soner Cagaptay – The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Ankara’s new dialogue with the PKK was born from nearly a decade of meticulous counterterrorism work, carried out by the country’s security forces and National Intelligence Organization and based on a political plan formulated by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who served as intelligence chief until 2023. The steps involved in this strategy have since become clear: (1) double down on pressuring and weakening the PKK via drone strikes and other effective tools, (2) bring the group back to the negotiating table from a position of weakness, and (3) negotiate the group’s breakup via Kurdish political intermediaries, as described in Part 1 of this PolicyWatch. The first phase of the plan achieved major successes against PKK militants in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, while phases two and three are seemingly being checked off as well amid reports that Abdullah Ocalan may soon ask his group to lay down their arms. To close the deal, end the PKK threat once and for all, and score a domestic political prize in the process, Fidan, Erdogan, and Turkey’s national security elites have been actively engaging Kurdish actors at home and abroad, whether to increase pressure on the group or offer incentives for disbanding. – Inside the Latest PKK Talks (Part 2): Implications for Turkish and U.S. Policy | The Washington Institute
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Olivia Gibson, Davit Gasparyan, Grace Mappes, Frederick W. Kagan, Nate Trotter, William Runkel – Institute for the Study of War)
Russian state media and Kremlin officials appear to be leveraging select statements from US officials alongside long-standing Russian narratives to create tension between the United States and Ukraine and undermine faith in America’s commitment to Ukraine.
US officials continue to reiterate their support for Ukraine and a lasting and just resolution of the war.
Russian forces recently eliminated the Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove amid continued reports that the Russian military is redeploying elements of the Russian Southern Military District’s (SMD) 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) from the Kurakhove direction to the Toretsk direction.
Russian forces are attempting to leverage the seizure of Velyka Novosilka to advance further north of the settlement toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.
Ukrainian officials continue to highlight the growth of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) through significant expansion in the domestic production of key military equipment.
Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Commander Sergei Pinchuk to the rank of Admiral and Eastern Group of Forces Commander Andrei Ivanayev to the rank of Colonel General on February 21.
Russian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly falsely designating former penal recruits as having abandoned their units without authorization (SOCH) to avoid paying them amid continued indicators that Russian authorities are concerned about the war’s strain on the Russian economy. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War
(Gracelin Baskaran, Meredith Schwartz – Center for Strategic & International Studies) U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are in discussions regarding an agreement that would grant the United States access to Ukraine’s critical minerals and other valuable resources. While the specifics are still being finalized, the deal would allow the United States to obtain a portion of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals in compensation for the financial aid provided to Ukraine during its conflict with Russia and potentially for future aid. – Assessing the Viability of a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal
(Michael Froman – Council on Foreign Relations) Monday will mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the face of heroic Ukrainian resistance and hundreds of billions of dollars in Western aid, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation,” initially envisioned as a fait accompli, has devolved into a grinding war of attrition. – The Art of a Ukraine Deal | Council on Foreign Relations
(Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash – Observer Research Foundation) Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections was met with scepticism in Moscow. Trump’s first term promised a reset with Russia; it Instead saw heightened tensions with new sanctions on Russian energy and the US withdrawing from the INF treaty. Moscow anticipated Trump’s second term would continue Biden’s Ukraine policies despite his campaign promises to end the war. However, since his inauguration, Moscow has warmed up to Trump’s approach, especially after he stopped further aid to Ukraine; furthermore, Washington’s commitment to ending the conflict was echoed by his aides. A significant shift in US policy became clear after a 90-minute call on February 12, where Trump and Putin discussed the need for lasting peace in Ukraine and agreed to peace talks in Saudi Arabia from February 18. – Ukraine conflict: Endgame in sight?
Terrorism
(Ovidiu Craciunas, Diego Muro – CIDOB) Terrorist attacks carried out by lone individuals, with no direct affiliation to terrorist groups, referred to as lone-actor terrorism, represent a very distinct challenge for European societies. Generally lacking the complexity of plots carried out by terrorist groups, lone-actor terrorism can still cause numerous casualties and have significant impact. How can we recognise lone-actor terrorism when we see it? What does this threat look like in the context of Europe? How can governments address this challenge and what can we expect in the future? This article provides a brief overview of the phenomenon in 21st century Europe. – Lone-Actor terrorism in Europe
US
(Eric Sigmon, Rut Bermejo Casado – Elcano Royal Institute) As a candidate and as President, Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to deport all undocumented immigrants living in the US during his second Administration. He and his Administration have announced a flurry of policies to enhance the government’s ability to apprehend, detain and deport undocumented immigrants and overcome the many obstacles that hinder them from reaching this ambitious goal. – Assessing Trump’s aggressive immigrant deportation goals (part 2): how he plans to overcome the many obstacles in his way
(Rut Bermejo Casado, Eric Sigmon – Elcano Royal Institute) One of the main themes of Donald Trump’s electoral campaign in the recent presidential elections has been immigration. Following his victory, Trump has begun implementing his action plan. One of his key proposals was the execution of mass deportations of immigrants. This paper analyses the feasibility and implications of Donald Trump’s proposal to carry out mass deportations under the so-called ‘Operation Aurora’. It examines how many and which immigrants would be targeted by the operation. The initiative is compared with the 1954 ‘Operation Wetback’, highlighting its similarities and the risks of repeating historical mistakes. – Assessing Trump’s aggressive deportation goals (part 1): how many migrants and which ones?
US – Europe
(Pol Morillas – CIDOB) El regreso de Donald Trump a la Casa Blanca marca el inicio de una nueva ola nacional-populista. A diferencia de su primera presidencia, esta vez el peligro es mayor, respaldado por un tecnoautoritarismo impulsado por líderes de empresas tecnológicas y un escenario internacional de grandes potencias con mentalidad neoimperial. En este contexto, Trump está degradando el equilibrio de poderes y poniendo en riesgo la democracia estadounidense y el orden internacional. ¿Resistirá Europa este nuevo envite transatlántico? – Trump: ¿por qué esta vez es diferente?
US – Greenland
(Mrityunjay Goswami – Centre for Land Warfare Studies) Greenland, the world’s largest Island, is often overlooked in discussions of global geopolitics. However, its strategic location, resource wealth, and growing geostrategic significance have made it a focal point for U.S. foreign policy and security objectives. As the Arctic region becomes increasingly accessible due to climate change, Greenland’s importance for U.S. security and economic interests has grown exponentially. President Trump’s recent remarks about acquiring Greenland have stirred controversy, as he described the purchase of Greenland as an “absolute necessity” for ensuring national security. This article examines why Greenland is critical for U.S. security policy. It explores its geostrategic importance, proximity with the Polar Shipping routes, vast resource potential, and role in great power competition. – Greenland’s Strategic Value: Why it Matters to the U.S. – Center For Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS)
