From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: China; China-Afghanistan; China-Russia; Global South; Kazakhstan; India; India-China-UAE; India-Pakistan; India-Russia; Indonesia; Iran-Israel; Iraq-Turkiye; Islamic State-Africa; Israel-Asia; Israel-Lebanon-Hezbollah; Japan-China-Taiwan; Mexico-US-China; North Korea; Thailand; US; Vietnam
China
(Abhishek Kumar Darbey – Manohar Parrikar Institute) In November 2025, China commissioned its third aircraft carrier, ‘Fujian’, which is more advanced with better combat capabilities than the previous two aircraft carriers, i.e., Liaoning and Shandong. The Fujian carrier, estimated to cost approximately US$ 8 billion, is China’s first domestically designed aircraft carrier. It was officially launched in June 2022 and conducted its first sea trials in May 2024. It is now a part of the South Sea Fleet of the Southern Theatre Command Navy. – China’s Fujian Aircraft Carrier: A Technological Leap in Shipbuilding – MP-IDSA
China-Afghanistan
(Will McManus – East Asia Forum) Whereas the West have largely kept their distance based on moral grounds since the fall of Kabul in 2021, China has taken a pragmatic approach that offers bilateral engagement through envoys, trade and infrastructure, contingent on the Taliban containing militant threats. Beijing’s strategic engagement remains dynamic and easily reversible if the security landscape changes — a practical yet fragile model for managing difficult regimes. – Contracts trump crusades in China’s Afghanistan policy | East Asia Forum
China-Russia
(M. S. Prathibha – Manohar Parrikar Institute) China’s growing strategic cooperation with Russia is increasingly evident. China is committed to greater coordination with Russia against specific threats posed by US primacy. They have, however, pronounced differences rooted in complex historical and geopolitical realities. These still pose a significant challenge to a more coordinated strategic cooperation. – China’s Russia Relationship: A Greater Alignment? – MP-IDSA
Global South
(Richard Kozul-Wright, Yin Shao Loong – East Asia Forum) Global South nations face challenges in advancing sustainability and development due to inappropriate policy advice from international financial institutions and unreliable cooperation from the Global North. To achieve their goals, they must pursue green structural transformation, adopt new forms of statecraft, and strengthen South–South alliances. These strategies align development with climate objectives while enhancing Southern states’ role and bargaining power. Multilateral institutions and Global North countries can still support these efforts, but meaningful cooperation requires a shift away from policy meddling. – Forging a green future for the Global South | East Asia Forum
Kazakhstan
(Pravesh Kumar Gupta – Vivekananda International Foundation) On December 12, 2025, a Peace Forum dedicated to the International Year of Peace and Trust was held in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan. This forum marked the 30th anniversary of Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality. The United Nations recognised permanent neutrality status of Turkmenistan in 1995. Hosted by Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, the forum raised critical issues impacting the peace and development at the regional and global levels and suggested ways forward to mitigate those challenges. This forum brought together leaders and stakeholders to discuss the role of peace in sustainable development. The high-level attendees at the forum included President Putin, Erdogan, the Iranian president, the heads of state of Central Asian countries, Prime Ministers of Georgia, Azerbaijan, Myanmar and Pakistan, among others. – Kazakhstan Pushes for UN Reforms at Ashgabat Peace Forum | Vivekananda International Foundation
India
(Ajey Lele – Manohar Parrikar Institute) Over the last few years, India has gradually opened strategic sectors to private investments. Sectors such as defence manufacturing, space, civil aviation, biotechnology and telecommunications are now open to private investment. A clear policy focus is evident on liberalisation in strategic sectors through increased foreign direct investment (FDI) limits, push for indigenous manufacturing in the defence sector, the opening of defence corridors, and the opening of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) facilities to private players. Also, private participation is encouraged in the mining and strategic minerals sectors. – Opening up India’s Nuclear Energy Sector – MP-IDSA
(Govind Bhattacharjee – Vivekananda International Foundation) India’s Look East Policy was designed at a time when the liberalised Indian economy needed new avenues and opportunities for trade and investment; India also needed to develop new friends in the post-Cold War world order. This led to India’s deeper cultural, economic and security engagements with the ASEAN nations and signing of several free trade agreements with them. By 2014, the increasing bellicosity and aggressiveness of China in the South China Sea areas and the strategic mutual interest of many countries in the face of such threats forced a rising India to refocus its strategy, making it much more comprehensive in scope and outreach to tap the rising economic opportunities that the East Asia and the Asia Pacific regions offered. The Look East Policy thus became a proactive Act East Policy, which resulted in many new economic and security collaborations with these countries and launching of several regional connectivity projects. The approach also led to India’s joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) with the USA, Japan, and Australia. The Act East Policy thus brought a new Indo-Pacific focus into India’s foreign policy. It is now time to refocus the strategy once again, by conflating an Act West approach with the Act East policy and also by expanding the scope of our engagements eastwards, beyond the ASEAN group of nations. – Need to Refocus and Redesign Act East Policy | Vivekananda International Foundation
India-China-UAE
(Samriddhi Vij – Observer Research Foundation) The relationship between India and China is one of Asia’s great paradoxes. The two nations are continental neighbours and civilizational peers, and their bilateral trade in FY 2024-2025 amounted to approximately $128 billion, signifying a deep economic co-dependence. Yet, this economic reality is built upon a foundation of growing amount of strategic distrust, frozen by the decades-old border dispute which rose to the fore again in the Himalayas in 2020. Indian scholars have often noted another source of friction as China’s strategic calculus perceives India as a South Asian power, not an emerging global one, leading to a persistent disconnect. These issues are further compounded by fundamental differences in foreign policy; Beijing often segregates political disputes from economic engagement, while New Delhi defines bilateral collaboration more holistically where a secure border is the non-negotiable prerequisite for a healthy economic relationship. – Developing an Effective Trilateral Partnership
India-Pakistan
(Harsh V. Pant, Rahul Rawat – Observer Research Foundation) The year 2025 saw a heinous terror attack on April 22 in the Pahalgam area of Jammu & Kashmir killing 26 civilians. The Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its proxy, The Resistance Front (TRF), were found to be involved in planning, facilitation and execution of the attack. The act was aimed at spreading a wave of chaos across the country. In the past decade, India’s resolve to fight against terrorism has been challenged multiple times. The Pathankot airbase attack in 2015, Uri in 2016 and Pulwama in 2019 remain three major terror incidents aimed primarily at the security forces. However, India’s determination to tackle terrorism has only seen an evolutionary shift in the last decade. It is marked by a will, resolve and demonstration of capability to address the challenge. During Operation Sindoor, India’s targeting of terror infrastructure, and the wielders of terror, that is, the Pakistani military, created a “new normal” marked by an assured response against future acts of terrorism. However, the assurance of retaliation in future alone is no guarantee against the threat of terrorism. India needs to establish credible deterrence and manage risks to tackle the serious challenge of the military-jihad nexus in Pakistan. – Raising the Costs for Pakistan
India-Russia
(Niranjan Chandrashekhar Oak – Manohar Parrikar Institute) India’s longstanding history of cooperation with Russia in the nuclear sector has made it a “time-tested progressive partnership, anchored in trust & mutual respect”, as stated in the title of the joint declaration following the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit. Nuclear cooperation remained a highlight of President Vladimir Putin’s successful visit to India on 4–5 December 2025. The India–Russia nuclear partnership has proven to be enduring. Russia has sustained its status as a nuclear superpower in terms of the number of nuclear weapons, its dominance over nuclear fuel and nuclear technology. – Nuclear Cooperation: A Constant in the India–Russia Relationship – MP-IDSA
Indonesia
(Jahen F Rezki – East Asia Forum) Subsidies have been showered on a host of sectors by the Indonesian government in hopes of promoting development. If successful, Indonesia’s industrial policy may enable the nation to become an integral link in advanced manufacturing chains. But the prospect of insufficiently disciplined industrial policy, one which generates economic rents but not competitive industries, haunts the Indonesian experience. – Indonesia’s industrial policy a double-edged sword | East Asia Forum
Iran-Israel
(Mohammad Alzghool – Emirates Policy Center) Evidence suggests that both Iran and Israel are refining their military strategies not only to enhance strategic deterrence but also to prepare for an inevitable military conflict between them. Preparations in both Iran and Israel for the upcoming confrontation focus on “improving military capabilities.” For Iran, lessons from its recent conflict with Israel underscored the significance of missile power and the need to enhance and expand it. By contrast, Israel has prioritized reinforcing its arsenal of air defense missile systems and accelerating the deployment of laser air defense technologies. – Emirates Policy Center | Revising Military Doctrine: How Iran and Israel are Preparing for Their Next Potential Conflict
Iraq-Turkiye
(Emirates Policy Center) In November 2025, Iraq and Turkiye signed a “mechanism document” to finance cooperation projects in the water sector as part of a broader agreement between the two countries. The move has sparked mixed reactions in Iraq, raising questions about the agreement’s interpretation, its alignment with the nature of the current crisis and its ability to withstand Iraq’s complex realities. There are two likely trajectories for the future of the Iraqi-Turkish water agreement. First, it could move toward implementation – unlike previous efforts – opening the door for Turkish initiatives, albeit non-binding, such as increasing water flows in the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Second, implementation could be obstructed by political changes in Iraq following elections or by external pressures. The recent Iraqi-Turkish agreement does not provide a sustainable solution to the water crisis between the two countries. It also fails to recolncile Ankara’s perspective – that the solution lies in managing water resources within Iraq – with the prevailing Iraqi view, which holds Turkiye and Iran responsible for restricting fair water flows from the Euphrates and Tigris. A more balanced framework, offering mutual commitments, would have been better suited to bridging these divergent positions and ensuring safer prospects for future implementation. – Emirates Policy Center | Iraq-Turkiye Water Agreement: Different Perspectives on a Sustainable Crisis
Islamic State-Africa
(Hussein Solomon – Vivekananda International Foundation) Following their loss of large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria, Islamic State (IS) has managed to entrench itself in Africa. In this essay, we explore the reasons for this expansion which includes the level of state contraction, IS use of sophisticated weaponry and tactics, its finances and its ability to exploit tensions between state and society. Whilst Islamic State is definitely expanding and whilst resilient to much counter-terrorism efforts, it is not invulnerable. As such, we conclude with what measures can realistically undertake to minimise, if not eradicate, its malevolent presence on the African continent. – Islamic State in Africa: Accounting for its Expansion and Resilience | Vivekananda International Foundation
Israel-Asia
(Alvite Ningthoujam-Observer Research Foundation) For decades, arms exports have served as a key instrument for advancing Israel’s foreign policy objectives and as a significant source of revenue. Despite its small size, Israel has emerged as one of the largest global weapons exporters. During 2020-2024, it remained the world’s eighth largest arms exporter, accounting for 3.1 percent of total global arms exports. In 2024, its arms exports set another record at US$14.8 billion, compared to US$13 billion in 2023. Israeli-made defence items are popular across Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia. In 2024, air defence systems, missiles and rockets accounted for 47 percent of its arms exports, while vehicles amounted to 9 percent; satellites and related equipment 8 percent; radar and electronic warfare systems 8 percent; and manned aircraft and avionics 8 percent. The procurement of these categories of weaponry underscores the military-security challenges faced by Israeli clients, including India, one of its largest importers. This article assesses the emerging dynamics of Israel’s arms exports following the Gaza crisis, which has resulted in European clients curtailing their defence trade with Israel, while simultaneously creating growth opportunities in Asian markets, particularly India and Southeast Asia. – Israel’s Defence Exports Pivot to Asia
Israel-Lebanon-Hezbollah
(Emirates Policy Center) Efforts by the Lebanese state to disarm Hezbollah have reached a dead end, with the party clinging to its weapons and even rebuilding its arsenal. The Lebanese army has hesitated to advance toward dismantling Hezbollah’s capabilities north of the Litani River, fearing such a move could spark widespread internal conflict. Meanwhile, regional and international pressure on Beirut to enforce a state monopoly on arms has intensified. Regional and international warnings to Beirut have grown regarding the likelihood of a large-scale Israeli military operation aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, severing its Syrian supply lines and imposing a buffer zone in southern Lebanon free of Hezbollah’s presence. This scenario would likely trigger mass displacement in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and potentially Beirut’s southern suburb, thus reshaping Shia presence and increasing social pressure on the party’s leadership. In the event of a full-scale Israeli war against Lebanon, Damascus would likely exploit the crisis to reassert border control, block supply routes to Hezbollah and secure its role in future security arrangements. Iran, meanwhile, is expected to pursue a strategy of “distributed support” – applying indirect political pressure, maintaining limited supply channels through Syria, encouraging Houthi escalation and managing Iraqi factions to prevent the confrontation from expanding in ways that could undermine its broader interests. – Emirates Policy Center | Israel’s Growing Military Drive to Disarm Lebanese Hezbollah: Are We Approaching a Moment of Explosion?
Japan-China-Taiwan
(Amit Ranjan Alok – Observer Research Foundation) The recent remarks of Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Sanae Takaichi in the parliament on 7 November 2025 that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could represent a “survival-threatening” scenario for Japan — legally justifying a possible military response — broke decades of diplomatic reticence. Concurrently, it provoked China, which considers Taiwan an integral part of China under the umbrella of the “One China policy (一个中国政策).” This single remark by the PM has ignited the most serious diplomatic flare-up in China-Japan ties, which were based on strategic ambiguity of Taiwan and crossed Beijing’s red line. Following the comment, both countries were seen participating in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in South Korea, where her remarks faced strong rebuke from Beijing, stating that Japan violated China’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity” principles and impinged on its “internal affairs”. The echoes of these remarks extend beyond politics to have economic repercussions. It has begun to inflict real economic damage by various means. If it is not addressed in a timely manner, it could considerably damage the political and economic ties between the two countries. – The Economic and Diplomatic Costs of Takaichi’s Taiwan Remarks
Mexico-US-China
(Juan J. Palacios – East Asia Forum) Mexico’s plan to raise tariffs on countries without trade deals — especially China — marks a strategic shift designed to protect domestic industries, bolster its hand in trade agreement negotiations and satisfy pressure from Washington. The move has substantial implications for the US–Mexico–China economic triangle, with Mexico now acting as a key manufacturing hub and balancing force between the world’s two largest economies. – Mexico’s protectionist shift can lock in the US–Mexico–China triangle | East Asia Forum
North Korea
(Scott Snyder, Ellen Kim – East Asia Forum) North Korea’s arms transfer to Russia deepens defence ties and open economic lifelines, while a reset with China has stabilised relations without closing differences on denuclearisation. The triangle is one of convenience, undermined by mutual mistrust and China’s global economic calculus. In Washington, options have narrowed as US President Donald Trump signals openness to renewed summitry and South Korea pursues a nuclear freeze approach. A nuclear arms control deal looks increasingly possible, risking de facto legitimation of North Korea’s nuclear status. – North Korea’s strategic play in an era of great power confrontation | East Asia Forum
Thailand
(East Asia Forum) Thailand is confronting a convergence of economic and political pressures that threaten to lock in prolonged stagnation caused by weak growth, demographic decline and low productivity. Decades of political instability, repeated intervention by unelected ‘tutelary’ powers and the blocking of reformist forces have undermined policy continuity, discouraged investment and diverted spending away from long-term growth drivers like education and public investment. Renewed border tensions with Cambodia and looming elections now compound these structural weaknesses, leaving Thailand trapped in a cycle of political uncertainty and economic underperformance that erodes its regional standing. – Thailand, the sick man of Southeast Asia? | East Asia Forum
US
(Aravind Sathishkumar – Observer Research Foundation) Emerging technologies are now at the heart of modern geopolitics and defence planning. The race for dominance is most evident between the United States (US) and China, with both regarding Artificial Intelligence (AI) and autonomy as elements in future conflicts. While the US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has described it as a technology-driven arms race, a 2024 Department of Defence (DOD) report to Congress and a Congressional Research Service study on emerging military technologies note that China has already made significant gains in AI and autonomous systems. This has sharpened the urgency for the US to maintain an edge. – Inside America’s New Defence Tech Ecosystem
(Harsh V. Pant, Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) The Trump administration has released its much-anticipated National Security Strategy (NSS), offering the first clear conceptual framing of what has unfolded since this administration took office and, more importantly, what is likely to emerge in the remaining period of this presidency. The disruptive trend that has characterised the Trump administration both in its economic and security approacheswas long viewed as something fluid, unpredictable, and not yet concretised. However, the NSS effectively ends such debates. It points to a newly crystallised worldview within the Trump administration – one that casts Europe as stingy in its security commitments across the world, signals a return to a Monroe-doctrine-style worldview through a Trumpian corollary in the Western Hemisphere, remains fundamentally conciliatory toward China, and is noticeably agnostic about the Indo-Pacific. – Trump’s New Grammar of US Hegemony
Vietnam
(David Dapice – East Asia Forum) Vietnam, like most of the world, has faced many shocks in 2025. But they have not curtailed the country’s lofty economic ambitions, which will be tested by how effectively planned reforms are put into practice. US President Donald Trump’s initial 46 per cent ‘reciprocal’ tariffs would have been a harsh blow. But Vietnam secured a tariff rate within 1 per cent of its chief ASEAN competitors and lower than those applied to India or China. FDI inflows have also increased, and exports are up 16 per cent in 2025. – Vietnam confronts the limits of its double-digit growth ambitions | East Asia Forum
