From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
Today’s about : Australia, Belarus, Europe, Germany, Greece, India, Morocco, Philippines, Russia, Russia-Baltic States, Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond), South Korea, Syria, Timor Leste-ASEAN, US, US-India, US-Mexico, US-Southeast Asia-China, US-Vietnam
Australia
(Heather Wrathall – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The Australian Government’s new International Gender Equality Strategy reaffirms its commitment to advancing gender equality as a core element of its foreign policy. At a time of global backlash against gender equality, the Strategy integrates gender considerations across diplomacy, trade, development, and security, underscoring their essential role in fostering regional stability, economic growth, and social cohesion. – Using All Tools of Statecraft to Drive Gender Equality – Australian Institute of International Affairs
(Vlado Vivoda – ASPI The Strategist) Australia’s critical minerals sector is at a crossroads. As the United States recalibrates its industrial policies under President Donald Trump, Australia’s role in securing non-Chinese supply chains for critical minerals has never been more important. To secure its critical minerals industry in partnership with friends such as the US, Australia must ensure US trade policies actively support its push to move up the value chain. It also needs a strategy to sustain key production during downturns, must better align critical minerals, defence and industrial policies, and it should push for stronger reciprocal investment from allies, especially in processing and refining. – How Australia, with friends, can secure its place in critical minerals | The Strategist
Belarus
(Yauheni Preiherman The Jamestown Foundation) On February 12, Belarus released three political prisoners, including a U.S. citizen and two Belarusian nationals, signaling an attempt to reset relations with the United States. The releases are part of Belarus’s broader strategy to de-escalate tensions with Western countries, particularly under the new Trump administration. Minsk aims to restore political dialogue, hoping for reciprocal diplomatic gestures. Belarus’s diplomatic gestures are partly driven by the desire to mitigate security risks linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Minsk hopes improved U.S. relations will enable participation in European security discussions. – Belarus Hopes to Reset U.S. Ties with Prisoner Release – Jamestown
Europe
(Ian Hill – Lowy The Interpreter) Why was Europe surprised? Anyone paying attention to the views of the new US administration should have known Donald Trump has consistently said he was determined to bring an early end to hostilities in Ukraine. Yet America’s allies in Europe appeared blindsided by the stunning trifecta in the past week of Trump’s call to Russian President Vladimir Putin on 12 February, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s declaration of the same day that Ukraine’s hopes of recovering its pre-2014 territorial integrity was “illusionary” and NATO membership “not realistic”, and then Vice President JD Vance lecturing the Munich Security Conference about democratic freedoms. – Will shock therapy spur a new realpolitik in Europe? | Lowy Institute
Germany
(Morgan James – Lowy The Interpreter) Germany will be the latest major European power to head to the polls this weekend, in an election that could well redefine the nation’s political landscape – and with Australia’s own federal election looming, the aftershocks could echo well beyond European shores. – Status quo politics is fading and Germany’s elections mark a turning point | Lowy Institute
(Judy Dempsey – Carnegie Europe) When Germans go to the polls on February 23 to elect a new federal parliament, the importance of the outcome cannot be overestimated. The results will shape the future direction of their country and, especially, of Europe. At a time when U.S. President Donald Trump is dismantling the world’s post-1945 multilateral institutions, a strong and confident Germany—the EU’s largest economy—is needed to give the union some long-overdue leadership. – Why Germany’s Election Matters for Europe | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
(Michelle Pace – Chatham House) Germany’s elections on Sunday will take place against a backdrop of economic, societal and political turmoil. Firstly, Germany’s economy is struggling. Concerns about US President Donald Trump’s potential tariffs on goods from the EU are very real for a country that, alongside China and the US, is one of the world’s three largest exporters. What is more, Germany’s share of industrial work has steadily declined, plummeting from 40 per cent in 1990 to just 27 per cent today. Its troubled industrial sector has dragged eurozone manufacturing into reverse – German election: Far-right firewall weakens as immigration concerns take centre stage | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Greece
(Chicago Council on Global Affairs) Greece, positioned at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, plays an important role in multiple geopolitical challenges. From providing humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine and navigating the upheavals in the Middle East to managing relations with Turkey, Greece faces critical strategic decisions. How is the country leveraging its position as a diplomatic bridge to advance unity in Europe and stability in the Middle East? As Greece expands its defense capabilities and strengthens its role within NATO, can it help establish a robust and independent European defense? A conversation with Greece’s Defense Minister Nikos Dendias and Endy Zemenides on Greece’s evolving regional and global role. – A Conversation with Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias | Chicago Council on Global Affairs
India
(Diya Shah – Observer Research Foundation) Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), recognised for its cost-effective and co-beneficial advantages, is seeing a global uptake. However, the number and scale of EbA projects remain limited compared to the opportunities offered by India’s diverse ecosystems and indigenous practices. While lack of funding is a direct cause, the small scale of existing EbA projects also fails to attract funding. Breaking this cycle requires addressing other mechanisms that hinder EbA’s growth. This brief explores India’s potential and identifies key challenges to scaling up EbA. – Mainstreaming Ecosystem-Based Adaptation in India
Morocco
(Yasmine Zarhloule – Carnegie Middle East) The closure of the border between Morocco and Algeria disrupted smuggling networks in the former’s Eastern Region. Moroccan authorities have since striven to develop local infrastructure and create alternative employment there. While these initiatives have maintained stability, the challenges posed by climate change, particularly water scarcity, remain. This underscores the need for Morocco to more thoroughly integrate climate-change adaptation strategies into local and regional planning, while also embracing and protecting indigenous ancestral socioeconomic systems. – De-Peripheralizing Morocco’s East in the Face of Climate Change and Border Securitization | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Philippines
(Andrea Chloe Wong – Lowy The Interpreter) The midterm poll in May for members of the Philippine Congress composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives is shaping as the most consequential in the country’s history. Traditionally, midterm elections are either a manifestation of support or a repudiation of the current administration. However, this year’s event not only judges President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s government but also determines the political survival of Vice-President Sara Duterte. It will be a showcase of the ongoing hostility between the country’s two most prominent political families. – A family feud in the Philippines | Lowy Institute
Russia
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The militarization of Russia’s education system demonstrates that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to continue an aggressive foreign policy and to ensure that Moscow will follow a similar approach even after he departs. Studies on the effect of Nazism in Germany indicate that values acquired at an early age are likely to remain far longer than is the case with older members of a population, increasing the likelihood that Putin’s values will remain with militarized children for life. Such an outcome is likely in this case as Russia, a nuclear power, is unlikely to be subject to a transforming defeat after Russia’s war against Ukraine ends, and militarization is becoming a part of the more general redefinition of Russian identity. – Kremlin’s Militarization of Russia’s Youngest Has Far-Reaching Consequences – Jamestown
Russia – Baltic States
(Justas Kazlauskas – The Jamestown Foundation) The Baltic states recently marked a major milestone by disconnecting from the Soviet-era electricity system and synchronizing with the continental European grid. The disconnect from the Moscow-controlled system was marked by Russian influence operations and incidents related to critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. The move marks a “second independence” for the Baltics, long abused by the Kremlin’s systematic use of energy pricing and supply disruptions to exert political pressure. – Goodbye, Lenin: The Baltics Disconnect from Soviet-era Power Grid – Jamestown
Russia’s War of Aggression on Ukraine (and beyond)
(Mikhail Korostikov – Carnegie Russia Eurasia) The euphoria that accompanied the start of negotiations between the United States and Russia to end the fighting in Ukraine was misleading. What we know of U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to foreign policy suggests that talks are extremely unlikely to yield anything. Trump likes to present himself as someone who can solve complex international issues with consummate ease—but the truth is that he has had far more foreign policy failures than successes. He may not be shy about getting involved in deep-rooted conflicts, but he is unwilling to get on top of the details, and has a tendency to lose interest if immediate results are not forthcoming. – Trump’s Push for Peace in Ukraine Is Doomed to Fail | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
South Korea
(Hannah Heewon Seo – East Asia Forum) South Korea’s political turmoil and weak domestic demand, following the declaration of martial law and the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, have led to economic instability and concern among foreign investors. To aid recovery, policies promoting economic stability and social integration are needed, which include international cooperation, diversifying export markets, strengthening social safety nets, supporting small businesses and maintaining political stability and consistent economic policy. – South Korea’s economy in tatters amid political turmoil | East Asia Forum
Syria
(Philip Eliason – Australian Institute of International Affairs) The United Nations is active in Syria. However, it remains focussed on delivering accountability to former Assad regime personnel who violated human rights, ignored International Humanitarian Law, and carried out large scale dispossession of property held by civilians in areas raged over by civil war. It needs to also focus overwatch on the former al-Qaida affiliates and the new government of Syria, Haya’t Tahrir al Sham (HTS) led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani now using the name Ahmed al-Sharaa. – Keeping a Watch on Human Rights in New Syria – Australian Institute of International Affairs
Timor Leste – ASEAN
(Zhai Kunc – East Asia Forum) Malaysia may lead the admission of Timor-Leste into ASEAN in 2025, despite challenges like undeveloped social and economic systems and concerns over the nation’s growing ties with China. Timor-Leste stands to gain from greater regional integration and economic diversification if it can leverage foreign partnerships, strengthen its institutions and implement required legislation, drawing on ASEAN’s successful transformation of geopolitical challenges into economic and political growth. – Timor-Leste looks to ASEAN for membership and modernisation | East Asia Forum
US
(Tom Corben – Lowy The Interpreter) “Peace through strength” has well and truly returned to the American political lexicon. The thing is that no one seems to agree on what that actually means in practical terms. Donald Trump and those in his orbit made the Reagan-era motto a rhetorical cornerstone of his presidential campaign. Key appointees, including Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have been equally fond of the phrase since taking office, as have senior Republicans with interests in defence in both houses of Congress. – America agrees on “peace through strength”, just not what it costs | Lowy Institute
US – India
(Harsh V. Pant – Observer Research Foundation) It has only been about a month since Donald Trump took over as US president, but the scale of changes he is bent on ushering in has cast a shadow across the world. There seems to be no geography that is not impacted by his initial steps. In an already volatile strategic landscape, these have added significant unpredictability. Trump seems to have no interest in continuing with the old traditions of American foreign policy and is redrawing the contours of US engagement with the rest of the world in some fundamental ways. – Trump’s big policy rejig poses an unavoidable challenge for India
US – Mexico
(The Chicago Council on Global Affairs) With Claudia Sheinbaum’s recent ascendance to Mexico’s presidency and Donald Trump’s return to the White House, relations between Mexico and the US stand at a crossroads. How is Mexico preparing to approach trade negotiations, border security, and migration in the second Trump term? Has Mexico’s negotiating position evolved since 2020? And how might the two countries sustain their economic and security cooperation given Sheinbaum and Trump’s ideological differences? Join us for a conversation with Denise Dresser and Lila Abed moderated by Cécile Shea as we explore what’s to come for Mexico and the US and its global implications. – Diplomacy or Discord? US-Mexico Relations at a Crossroads | Chicago Council on Global Affairs
US – Southeast Asia – China
(Hoang Thi Ha, Cha Hae Won – FULCRUM) As the US shuts down its supply of foreign assistance, some Southeast Asian countries are looking at China to fill the gap. But given China’s different approach to aid, it cannot step in as a direct substitute for America. – US Suspension of Foreign Aid: Will China Fill the Void? | FULCRUM
US – Vietnam
(Phan Xuan Dung – FULCRUM) Cooperation in addressing war legacy is the cornerstone of the Vietnam-US comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), a relationship built on decades of painstaking reconciliation efforts. Given the two countries’ past hostilities and the enduring consequences of the Vietnam War, this cooperation has been vital in building trust. US President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend foreign aid for 90 days risks unravelling that progress while raising doubts about the US as a reliable partner. – Trump’s Aid Freeze Could Disrupt Progress in US-Vietnam Reconciliation | FULCRUM
