- Australia. AUKUS ridefinirà i partenariati tra governo e industria (The Strategist, Jason Van der Schyff). Australia’s defence and technology industry will be tested like never before by the AUKUS partnership in managing the torrent of sensitive information flowing from partner countries and in defining the shape of the agreement itself. AUKUS will redefine government–industry partnerships
- Legami tra Bangladesh e Australia per la prosperità e la sicurezza regionale (The Strategist, Afeeya Akhand). Australia’s economic opportunities in South Asia extend far beyond India. While the tariff reductions and other measures under the new economic cooperation and trade agreement will support the Australia–India economic relationship, Bangladesh is another country offering opportunities for growth. Building Bangladeshi–Australian ties for regional prosperity and security
- Il nuovo regime talebano e la costruzione dello Stato in Afghanistan (AIIA, Khurram Abbas, Zahid Shahab Ahmed, Muhammad Faizan Fakhar). Since the 1970s, Afghanistan has become the laboratory of political experiments for major powers and regional states leading to political and social fragmentation, continuous turmoil, and large-scale human suffering. In search of a credible, consensus-based government that may start a complicated and long-term process of state-building, the country has witnessed significant bloodshed. The New Taliban Regime and State-Building in Afghanistan
- India. Imperativi per il ripensamento delle dottrine delle Forze Armate (Vivekananda International Foundation, Lt Gen (Dr) Rakesh Sharma). Modern warfare dictates different Services and indeed different components of national power to be brought together intelligently to achieve unity of command and unity of effort. Modern warfare is also extremely complex, and no two wars can be stated as being similar. Imperatives for Reconsideration of the Armed Forces Doctrines
- La presidenza indiana del G20: opportunità di riprendere l’impegno nell’Artico (Manohar Parrikar Institute, Anurag Bisen). The suspension of scientific exchanges in the Arctic, as a protest against Russia’s ‘special military operations’ in Ukraine, is likely to severely impede global climate change mitigation efforts. India’s G20 Presidency: Opportunity to Resume Engagement in the Arctic
- La sfida russa alle ambizioni dell’India nel G-20 (Observer Research Foundation, Harsh V. Pant). Earlier this month, national security adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval was in Moscow to attend the fifth multilateral meeting of secretaries of security councils and NSAs on Afghanistan, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin. It was remarkable that a leader who has become increasingly reclusive decided to break protocol to undertake a “wide-ranging discussion on bilateral and regional issues” with the NSA. This underscores a desire on the part of Moscow to keep its ties with New Delhi on an even keel when it is getting increasingly isolated and is being widely viewed as a junior partner of China. The Russian Challenge to India’s G-20 Ambitions
- Sri Lanka, spirale del debito e crescenti costi umani (The Interpreter, Mariza Cooray, Roland Rajah). Sri Lanka turned 75 this month. Despite an unfolding economic and humanitarian crisis, the government chose to celebrate Independence Day on 4 February with an extravagant military parade. The event served to spur more protests from a public where more than half of households are struggling to put food on the table. Confronting the mounting human costs of Sri Lanka’s debt spiral
- Corea del Nord. Il pensiero rivoluzionario di Kim Jong-un (JIIA, Hisashi Hirai). North Korea is an ideological state. One of the reasons that such a peculiar nation has survived for more than 70 years is clearly its control through ideology. There is an idiom in the ROK that goes, “hitting a boulder with an egg.” It is often used in reference to stupid acts in the sense of trying something that cannot be done. The expression “an egg injected with ideology can crack rocks,” however, is often quoted in Party newspapers in North Korea. In North Korea, the ideology even enables an egg to break rocks. To the outside world, such thinking seems silly. However, the reality is that such power of ideology is valued within North Korea. This is one of the reasons why we have no choice but to pay close attention to the status of ideology in North Korea if we are to take an intrinsic approach to thinking about North Korea. In this article, I would like to consider the moves surrounding “Comrade Kim Jong-un’s revolutionary thought” that has recently been emphasized in North Korea. The Japan Institute of International Affairs
- L’energia verde nel partenariato tra UE e ASEAN (Clingendael). The future is green but the transition requires a transformation of energy systems. Grid optimisation is a crucial element of energy transition, as it facilitates the integration of renewable energy sources into the power system and helps avoid grid instability and blackouts. The EU and ASEAN share a commitment to accelerating the roll-out and efficient use of renewable energy sources. Plugging Green Power into the EU-ASEAN Partnership
- Piani di recupero e resilienza dei Paesi dell’Unione Europea (Bruegel). The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is the largest component of Next Generation EU (NGEU), the European Union’s landmark instrument for recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. European Union countries’ recovery and resilience plans
- L’Europa sta fallendo nella diversificazione delle importazioni? (Bruegel, Lennard Welslau, Georg Zachmann). Despite a goal of economic self-reliance, the European Union’s imports are generally sourced from an increasingly limited set of suppliers. Is Europe failing on import diversification?
- Dipendenza dalle materie prime critiche: l’Europa ha una strategia? (IRIS, Guillaume Pitron). Dépendante de son approvisionnement en matières premières critiques, l’Union européenne a annoncé la présentation d’un Critical Raw Material Act en mars. Alors que ces métaux jouent un rôle majeur dans la transition énergétique des pays européens, quelle est la stratégie de l’Union européenne en matière d’approvisionnement en matières premières critiques ? En quoi cette stratégie diffère-t-elle de celle de la Chine et des États-Unis ? Quels sont les risques liés à la dépendance des États européens ? Que pourrait changer le Critical Raw Material Act ? Dépendance en matières premières critiques : l’Europe possède-t-elle une stratégie ?
- Spagna, strategia e spazio europeo (Elcano Royal Institute, Daniel Fiott). How can Spain help enhance EU space, security and defence? A stellar moment? Spain, strategy and European space
- La ridisegnata mappa della sicurezza in Europa pone la Germania al centro della scena (CIDOB, Francis Ghilès). The war in Ukraine is redrawing the security and economic map of Europe. As neutral Sweden and Finland seek membership of NATO, power will gravitate towards a new alliance of Northern, Eastern and the Baltic states. Will this weaken the Franco-German alliance which has been the bedrock of the European project for seventy years? Redrawn security map of Europe puts Germany centre stage
- La promessa non mantenuta della politica estera e di sicurezza dell’UE nei confronti dell’Iran (CIDOB, Riccardo Alcaro, Steven Blockmans, Akın Ünver, Sine Özkaraşahin). With the 2015 nuclear deal dead in all but name, Iran is getting closer to Russia and more repressive at home, while EU member states’ priorities about the Islamic Republic now extend beyond nuclear proliferation to human rights and European security. This shift in priorities cements a re-orientation of the EU’s approach to Iran from conditional engagement to confrontation. EU member states’ options are limited, however. Pressure worked prior to the nuclear agreement because the EU cut off significant trade with Iran. But US extraterritorial sanctions, reimposed after the United States left the deal in 2018, have rendered EU-Iran trade so modest that cutting it would have little impact. The EU could get more leverage by providing incentives, yet the political inexpediency of rewarding Iran at a time of rising belligerence of the Islamic Republic greatly restricts the range of benefits potentially on offer. Still, in the mid- to longer term, the EU and its member states will need to combine pressure with some form of incentives if they want to defend their interests in non-proliferation, European security and the protection of human rights in Iran. They also need to resort to a variety of international partnerships in order to maximise their residual leverage. The Unfulfilled Promise of EU Foreign and Security Policy towards Iran
- L’accordo sul nucleare iraniano: le conseguenze di una diplomazia moribonda (Nato Defense College, Mark Fitzpatrick). On 4 November 2022, United States President Joe Biden privately remarked that the 2015 Iran nuclear accord known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was “dead”, but that the US would not formally say so. NDC – News- The Iran nuclear deal: consequences of moribund diplomacy
- Israel Aerospace Industries lavora ad aumentare i legami con gli Stati Uniti su quantistica e ipersonica (Breaking Defense, Arie Egozi). Israel aerospace industries (IAI) is working to increase cooperation with US defense-related institutions, as it seeks to develop future-looking technologies, a top company executive told Breaking Defense in a recent interview. Israel’s IAI seeking to increase US ties on quantum, hypersonics
- La nuova luna di miele tra Israele e Turchia (JCPA, Yoni Ben Menachem). Turkey expressed great appreciation to Israel for the humanitarian aid it provided following the earthquake and promised to upgrade relations between the two countries. The New Honeymoon between Israel and Turkey
- Biden incontra a sorpresa Zelensky a Kiev (Defense News,
- La visita di Biden a Kiev invia un forte messaggio a Mosca (Atlantic Council, Peter Dickinson). US President Joe Biden made headlines on February 20 with a bold surprise visit to Kyiv that underlined ongoing American support for Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression. The unannounced trip came as Ukraine prepares to mark the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, which began in the early hours of February 24, 2022. It sends an important message to Moscow that the United States and its partners will continue to stand with Ukraine as the war enters its second year. ‘You cannot outlast us’: Biden’s Kyiv visit sends strong message to Moscow
- Un anno dopo l’invasione russa dell’Ucraina, Biden incontra Zelenskyy a Kiev (Atlantic Council). Air-raid sirens moaned as the two men walked calmly through the courtyard of St. Michael’s Golden-Domed Monastery in Kyiv. On Monday, US President Joe Biden made a surprise trip to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about US support for Ukraine in the war,” Biden said at a news conference after the two leaders visited the monastery and an adjoining memorial to fallen Ukrainian soldiers. Experts react: One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden meets with Zelenskyy in Kyiv
- La NATO dovrebbe preferire la pace alla vittoria in Ucraina. Ecco perché e come (PRIO, Sebastian Schutte). These lines ring more true today than they have in decades. Russia and Ukraine kill their soldiers by the hundreds each week, as a consequence of Russian aggression. Outrage against its murderous onslaught has galvanized the West, dusted off NATO’s image, and unified public opinion. NATO Should Pursue Peace over Victory in Ukraine. Here Is Why and How
- Russia, la guerra e l’opinione pubblica (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Andrei Kolesnikov). The inherent submission of the Russian people to their political leadership has its roots in fear, generational trauma, and extreme socioeconomic dependency on the state. As War Rages, Russian Society Has Assumed the Fetal Position
- La Russia e l’impatto delle sanzioni (The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Maria Shagina). Sanctions are contributing to the slow strangulation of the Russian economy and depriving the country of critical financial assets and technological capabilities. Russia faces the slow burn of economic sanctions
- Per porre fine all’invasione russa occorre riformulare il discorso sulla diplomazia (RUSI, Jack Watling). The question is not what concessions Ukraine should eventually make, but what might compel Russia to negotiate in the first place. Ending Russia’s Invasion Requires a Reframing of the Discourse on Diplomacy
- A un anno di distanza, come può finire la guerra in Ucraina? (Chatham House, Simon Smith). No sane participant or observer of this war wants it prolonged unnecessarily. But now is not the time to be advocating an urgent ‘solution’. One year on, how can the war on Ukraine end?
- Cosa significa per Russia, Ucraina e Bielorussia la prospettiva di una guerra prolungata (SWP, Sabine Fischer, André Härtel, Sebastian Hoppe, Margarete Klein, Janis Kluge, Astrid Sahm, Susan Stewart). One year after the massive attack on Ukraine, the Kremlin is sticking to its maximum goals, a negotiated settlement is not in sight. How a prolonged war can affect Russia, Ukraine and Belarus is analysed in this 360 degrees. What the Prospect of a Prolonged War Means for Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
- Sette modi in cui la guerra della Russia contro l’Ucraina ha cambiato il mondo (Chatham House). Chatham House experts examine the shifts in geopolitical alliances, security, energy, and supply chains and whether these changes are likely to be long-lasting. Seven ways Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the world
- Un anno di guerra in Ucraina (The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies). What preliminary lessons can we learn after one year of war in Ukraine? After the Russian invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, a large-scale and even nuclear war in Europe is no longer unthinkable. European armed forces are not equipped for a war in the highest spectrum of violence, and American support is still necessary for the defence of European territory. Lessons from land warfare: One year of war in Ukraine
- Russia-Ucraina. Evoluzione della guerra, 20 febbraio 2023 (Institute for the Study of War, Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, and Frederick W. Kagan). US President Joe Biden visited Kyiv on February 20 ahead of the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 20, 2023
- La democrazia non è più euro-atlantica (The Strategist, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar). On 18 February, India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar gave a keynote address at the inaugural Raisina @ Sydney dialogue, organised by ASPI and the Observer Research Foundation. The following is a lightly edited version of his speech – As we see the world at this time, it’s important we all appreciate that the larger outlook is one of great uncertainty, a lot of unpredictability, with new players, new behaviour. There is the cumulative impact of three years of Covid, the damage that it has done to the global social economic fabric, the year of the Ukraine conflict, the knock-on effects—the fuel, food, fertiliser, trade disruptions; the shortages it has created; the uncertainties it has enhanced—and then take some of the perennial challenges which pre-existed, such as climate. Democracy is no longer Euro-Atlantic
- Negoziati sul clima in tempi di crisi multiple (SWP, Marian Feist, Oliver Geden). The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was marked by multiple crises and the shaken confidence of developing countries in the multilateral process. Nonetheless, an agreement was reached on the critical issue of loss and damage, even though many key aspects still need to be fleshed out. With regard to emission reductions, there is a credibility crisis that threatens to worsen, not only because political priorities have shifted following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. In order to strengthen international climate cooperation in the coming years, it will be crucial to honour existing commitments, adhere to agreed processes, and show diplomatic tact in dealing with partner countries. Climate Negotiations in Times of Multiple Crises
Geostrategic magazine (21 febbraio 2023)
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