From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
China
(Adrian Zenz – The Jamestown Foundation) A recently leaked copy of the audit of Volkswagen’s much-criticized joint-venture factory in Xinjiang indicates that claims made by Volkswagen inside the report are misleading or false. These include suggestions that the audit applied the SA8000 social accountability standard, followed International Labor Organization standards, and was conducted by a firm with experience carrying out social audits. The audit shows that the factory organizes staff activities promoting “harmony” of all ethnic groups. Such activities are associated with forced assimilation, which raises severe ethical concerns over Volkswagen’s continued presence in the region. Liangma Law, a Shenzhen firm with ties to the Chinese Communist Party contracted for the audit, possesses no discernable experience in conducting social audits and does not advertise related services. Clive Greenwood, who joined Liangma shortly before the audit to participate in it, has publicly stated that SA8000 audits are worthless in the People’s Republic of China. Auditors did not ask general staff about forced labor. Interviews with Uyghur and other staff were remotely monitored via live video link, permitting direct state surveillance. Interviewees’ anonymity was not preserved. In short, SA8000 guidelines for worker interviews were grossly violated. – An Assessment of the Audit of Volkswagen’s Controversial Factory in Xinjiang – Jamestown
Horn of Africa
(Diplomatic and media tensions have escalated between Egypt and Ethiopia following Addis Ababa’s announcement of the completion of work on the Renaissance Dam and Egypt’s commencement of its joint defense agreement with Somalia. he emerging conflict between Egypt and Somalia on one side, and Ethiopia on the other, has deep strategic roots, revolving around Somalia’s position in the regional framework and Ethiopia’s ambitions to secure its vital regional interests and endeavor to turn into a naval, military and trade power. While ruling out the possibilities of comprehensive reconciliation and military confrontation, prolonged tension seems to be the most likely scenario for the crisis between Ethiopia, on the one hand, and Somalia and Egypt, on the other. This scenario may involve sporadic armed clashes as well as continued media and diplomatic escalation. –Emirates Policy Center | The New Triangle of Tension in the Horn of Africa (epc.ae)
Iraqi Kurdistan
(Emirates Policy Center) Parliamentary elections in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq are scheduled for October 20, 2024. These elections follow changes to the election law imposed by the Federal Supreme Court (FSC) in Baghdad. A key outcome for the region will be regaining legislative powers, which may lead to a clash with the FSC. The two major parties – the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – are likely to lead in these elections. However, the process of forming the next government will be challenging, particularly with the emergence of new opposition forces, notably the People’s Front (PF) led by Lahur Sheikh Jangi. The election results may force the KDP into a difficult position, where it must choose between giving up the post of the president or that of the prime minister. Moreover, the KDP may need to relinquish others positions in order to form a new cabinet, aiming to rebalance its relationships and interests within the region or in Iraq as a whole. – Emirates Policy Center | Upcoming Elections in Iraqi Kurdistan: Restructuring of ‘Partnership’ or ‘damage Control’? (epc.ae)
Mediterranean, Middle East, and the Gulf
(Hani Suleiman – Emirates Policy Center) Senior Israeli military and political leaders have recently intensified their rhetoric regarding Tel Aviv’s readiness to escalate the situation at the Lebanese front and carry out a ground operation against Hezbollah. These statements have been accompanied by military preparations, including field drills and the recent detonations of pagers and radios used by Hezbollah members. Several factors limit the likelihood of an Israeli all-out war in Lebanon. These include the Israeli army’s exhaustion from the ongoing war in Gaza, fears of Hezbollah’s capacity to cause widespread destruction of Israeli infrastructure, concerns over heavy civilian and military casualties and opposition from Washington. The coming days will be critical in determining whether the Lebanese front will see further escalation or a de-escalation, depending on the nature of Hezbollah’s response to the latest Israeli operation and the outcome of ongoing US efforts to broker a deal in Gaza. – Emirates Policy Center | Drums of War in the North: What Drives Israel’s Threats of Ground Operation in Lebanon? (epc.ae)
Moldova
(Polina Panainte, Petru Culeac – GMF) This report contains an analysis of the pre-electoral context in Moldova and the main risks emerging in the political landscape, the legal framework, the electoral administration, and the mass media. – Republic of Moldova 2024 Presidential Election and EU Referendum: Pre-election Risk Assessment | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
Pacific Islands
(Jessica Collins, Hilman Palaon – Lowy The Interpreter) In the Pacific Islands region, cash is king. But a transformation to digital financial services could unlock economic dividends needed now. The undertaking would be no small feat. Massive gaps exist between digital and traditional financial services in the Pacific Islands, driven partly by low trust in storing and sending money digitally and a lack of infrastructure across the region. – Reducing the role of cash in Pacific Island economies | Lowy Institute
Papua New Guinea
(Catherine Wilson – Lowy The Interpreter) Last week, Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, James Marape, emerged the victor in what has been a relentless campaign of opposition-led no confidence votes this year seeking to topple him from the leadership. Marape has not flinched from the parliamentary challenges, emphasising that they are part of the democratic process. – The days lost to PNG’s development and economy over votes of no confidence | Lowy Institute
Singapore
(Euan Graham – ASPI The Strategist) Which country is Singapore’s ‘special and most-trusted partner’, according to Prime Minister Lawrence Wong? For a globally networked city state that excels in ‘multi-alignment’ and spurns formal alliances, the crop of potential candidates is abundant. But the answer may surprise. – Who is Singapore’s bestie? The answer might surprise | The Strategist (aspistrategist.org.au)
South Caucasus – Zangezur Transit
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) The Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute has always been about both Karabakh and regional transit routes, which now center on Zangezur. Addressing this problem is far more difficult than Karabakh because it directly involves not just Baku and Yerevan but all outside powers—including Russia, Iran, Türkiye, China, and the West—with sharply conflicting agendas. These difficulties are leading to a delay in reaching any peace accord and could ultimately prompt Azerbaijan to seek a military solution. Such an attempt would likely push Russia and Iran to react by sending forces there, an intervention that could trigger a broader war. None of the proposed efforts to forestall a broader conflict will satisfy the involved parties for long. Consequently, even if a peace agreement is signed sometime in the near future, the geopolitics of the region will remain fraught with a strong potential for violence. – Zangezur Transit Now at Center of Conflicts in South Caucasus – Jamestown
Sri Lanka
(Chulanee Attanayake – East Asia Forum) Sri Lanka is increasingly caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war between India and China in the Indian Ocean as the two powers seek strategic and mineral resources. The standoff escalated when the International Seabed Authority halted India’s application to explore cobalt-rich areas, citing overlapping claims with Sri Lanka’s continental shelf. Sri Lanka now faces a delicate balancing act as it tries to manage its relationships with these regional giants, each intensifying efforts to secure a strategic edge in this crucial maritime region. – Sri Lanka caught in the crossfire of India–China maritime rivalry | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
(Neil DeVotta, Pradeep Peiris – East Asia Forum) Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election will be one of its most important post-independence elections. Yet the island’s economic crisis and need for future multilateral assistance means candidates are hamstrung in what they can pursue in the foreign policy field, with only minor differences in possible alignment with China, India, Japan and the United States. – Continuity with change in Sri Lanka’s presidential election | East Asia Forum | East Asia Forum
United Nations
(Brookings) The 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) opened last week in New York City. As world leaders come together to discuss how to make progress on intertwined global challenges, these are the issues experts from the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings will be watching closely. – What to watch for at the 2024 UN General Assembly (brookings.edu)
USA
(Bruce Stokes – GMF) Americans are increasingly less satisfied with the US position in the world. Roughly two-thirds of Americans were satisfied in the early days of the George W. Bush administration. More recently, only about a third are. – Public Opinion: U.S. Engagement with the World and the U.S. Election | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Lindsay Gorman, Caitlin Goldenberg – GMF) The US presidential race has officially entered its “TikTok era”. Gone are the days of relying squarely on traditional campaign ads broadcast between news segments. Instead, with a third of American adults under 30 getting their news on the platform, top contenders have taken directly to their voters’ TikTok feeds to boost campaign visibility and take reputational jabs against opponents. Candidates and their teams churn out content that is often heavily coded in memes, pop culture references, and “netspeak”. Given TikTok’s reported 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, the app’s advent as an arena for political content in democracies was inevitable. Yet this spike in campaign activity stands in stark contrast to the growing recognition in Washington—including among presidential candidates themselves—that TikTok poses a national security threat due to its People’s Republic of China (PRC)-based ownership. – TikTok in the 2024 US Presidential Race: Trending Campaign Strategy or Passing Trend? | German Marshall Fund of the United States (gmfus.org)
(Joseph W. Kane, Adie Tomer – Brookings) A more extreme and uncertain climate is leading to tangible harms across the U.S., including stresses on transportation and water systems. While major storms and other acute shocks can lead to sudden and severe destruction, rising heat and other chronic stresses can lead to gradual environmental, economic, and public health challenges. That means greater operational and insurance risks, as well as rising damage, disruptions, and costs to physical infrastructure assets over time. Risks and costs are uneven across the country, with the most severe impacts tending to hit the communities least able to withstand and recover from them. – Financing equitable adaptation: Rethinking the resilience of transportation and water systems (brookings.edu)
USA – China
(Hervé Lemahieu – Lowy The Interpreter) How do you convince the American foreign policy establishment, squarely fixated on China, that the regional context in which US-China competition takes place matters? And how do you unpick the battle of narratives about how that regional competition is playing out? – Why US-China bipolarity is good for Asia | Lowy Institute
