From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Africa; Armenia-India; Australia-UAE; China; Climate Action; Gaza; Iran-Russia-Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan-Caspian Sea; Japan; Micronesia; Russia-Ukraine; Taiwan Strait; US-Russia; US-Saudi Arabia; Uzbekistan-European Union
Africa
(Sani Suleiman Sani – Atlantic Council) Forty-nine African countries now operate biometric systems, with foreign vendors dominating a market that controls the continent’s most sensitive identity infrastructure. An estimated half a billion Africans lack identity documents, driving governments to deploy biometric systems rapidly. Still, weak governance frameworks often mean these technologies exclude the very populations they’re intended to serve. From Uganda’s Ndaga Muntu to Kenya’s Huduma Namba, biometric deployments across Africa face common challenges: data breaches, corruption in enrollment processes, exclusion of elderly citizens, and the use of facial recognition to monitor political dissent. – Biometrics and digital identity in Africa – Atlantic Council
Armenia – India
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Armenia is finalizing a $3 billion agreement to purchase eight to twelve Indian-manufactured Su-30MKI multirole fighter jets, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2029. This acquisition aims to counter Azerbaijan’s recent procurement of 40 JF-17 Block III aircraft from Pakistan, effectively extending the India–Pakistan rivalry into the South Caucasus region. While the deal diversifies Yerevan’s defense partnerships away from Russia, Azerbaijan’s upgraded JF-17s—featuring Chinese and Turkish technology—may still hold a tactical advantage. – Armenia to Purchase Indian Fighter Jets – Jamestown
Australia – UAE
(Fahad AlTaffaq and Ridwaan Jadwat – ASPI The Strategist) Australia and the United Arab Emirates are countries with forward looking agendas: ambitious, technology-driven and globally connected. As ambassadors, we meet people every day whose lives reflect the strength of the UAE–Australia relationship, linking our countries in ways that statistics alone cannot capture. As we look back on the past twelve months and forward through 2026, our two nations stand at a historic inflection point. On 1 October, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) entered into force, coinciding with 50 years of diplomatic relations, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to Abu Dhabi, and the elevation of the UAE–Australia relationship to a strategic partnership. – Fifty years on, the UAE–Australia relationship is still growing | The Strategist
China
(Cristina Talacko – Lowy The Interpreter) For all the grand declarations about a global energy transition, the real story has been written not in climate summits but in the quiet, deliberate choices made by the world’s major powers. As Adrian Monck, former managing director at the World Economic Forum, recently summarised: “Europe chose regulation; China chose manufacturing; the US chose extraction.”. The outcomes, unsurprisingly, are far from equal. – China built the energy transition while democracies debated | Lowy Institute
Climate Action
(David Dutton – Lowy The Interpreter) Faced with an impasse over its bid to host COP31 next year in partnership with the Pacific, Australia opted this week to make a deal with Türkiye. This outcome will disappoint many but nonetheless could promise more ambitious climate diplomacy in 2026. Türkiye will host COP31, Australia’s Climate Minister Chris Bowen will preside over negotiations, and a lead-up meeting will be held in the Pacific. We don’t yet know how the government envisages this novel arrangement will work. The government had ruled out a shared presidency, but this appears to be a form of it. Bowen has mentioned his leadership of negotiations and a Turkish presidency of the COP. How will Australian negotiators and diplomats work with Türkiye and Pacific countries? The danger is an unworkable arrangement, compounding an already hard task. – COP that: Australia trades hosting for climate talks presidency | Lowy Institute
Gaza
(Mariel Ferragamo – Council on Foreign Relations) On November 17, the UN Security Council approved a U.S.-drafted resolution for peace in the Gaza Strip, a breakthrough for the Trump administration’s twenty-point plan to broker peace in the region. The vote was 13–0, with China and Russia abstaining. The resolution gives the United States a legal mandate to employ parts of the peace plan. This includes the creation of an International Stabilization Force (ISF), a multinational military body that will monitor security in the enclave. The resolution also aims to assemble a committee that will oversee the security and political transition in Gaza until the end of 2027, when the Palestinian Authority (PA) will take over governance. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz called the resolution a “lifeline” for Gaza and thanked the Security Council for “charting a new course for Israelis, Palestinians, and all the people in the region alike.” U.S. President Donald Trump praised the “incredible” vote on social media. – A Guide to the Gaza Peace Deal | Council on Foreign Relations
Iran – Russia – Kazakhstan – Azerbaijan – Caspian Sea
(John C. K. Daly – The Jamestown Foundation) On October 8, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan signed a cooperation pact agreement rejecting any foreign military presence in the Caspian Sea and committing to increased naval cooperation. The agreement strengthens the Kremlin’s strategic advantage in the Caspian via its control of the Volga-Don Canal. It signals the littoral states’ continued alignment with Moscow despite the post-Soviet states’ broader multi-vector diplomacy amid Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan continue expanding their Caspian navies as Russian missile launches, the sea’s role in transit corridors, and abundant natural resources underscore the basin’s military and geopolitical importance. Environmental decline—rapidly falling water levels and ecological stress—poses a major threat to the Caspian littoral states, but effective collective action remains uncertain despite upcoming regional coordination efforts. – Caspian Littoral States Sign Cooperation Document – Jamestown
Japan
(Jake Thrupp – ASPI The Strategist) Don’t underestimate the strength of Japan’s strategic transformation, above all in its hardening determination to face accumulating threats. The shift becomes clear to anyone who engages these days with Japanese officials and defence analysts, as I discovered at the Security and Defence PLuS Joint Conference on Comprehensive Security in the Indo-Pacific, held on 14 and 17 November. This shift is being driven in large part by the new political leadership of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her mentee, Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, who have pledged to accelerate defence spending. – An era of harder security is beginning in Takaichi’s Japan | The Strategist
Micronesia
(Robert Underwood – Lowy The Interpreter) The islands of Micronesia, located in the northwest Pacific, are anything but “micro” when it comes to geopolitics. In the event of a US-China conflict, US military success is almost certainly dependent on support from frontline allies along the “First Island Chain”, such as Japan and South Korea. At the same time as the United States pursues as much control as possible in these frontline countries, the US is hedging its bets by undertaking a massive military buildup in Micronesia and along the Second Island Chain. This gives Micronesia special relevance among other territories in the region. – What happens in Micronesia doesn’t stay in Micronesia | Lowy Institute
Russia – Ukraine
(Kassie Corelli – The Jamestown Foundation) Pro-government Russian military analysts are begging to admit that the Ukrainian economy remains afloat despite constant attacks and pressure from Moscow. Leaked documents from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) also show a growing skepticism toward the intentions of the People’s Republic of China within Russia’s counterintelligence agency. For the first time, war correspondents and analysts close to the Ministry of Defense acknowledge not only the absence of real success at the front, but also the illusory nature of the war against Ukraine. – Pro-Kremlin Analysts Acknowledge Previously Hushed-up Problems – Jamestown
Taiwan Strait
(ASPI) The Economist called Taiwan ‘the most dangerous place on earth’ in 2021. For the island’s 23 million people, that danger isn’t abstract; it’s a daily reality shaped by the constant shadow of conflict. Across the Taiwan Strait, China’s leaders see the island not as a neighbour but as unfinished business, a critical piece of President Xi Jinping’s vision of national rejuvenation. As Chinese coercion increases and the status quo across the Strait deteriorates, countries in the Indo-Pacific need to do more to maintain balance and deter conflict. – Pressure points: managing risk and escalation in the Taiwan Strait | The Strategist
US – Russia
(John Drennan and Erin D. Dumbacher – Council on Foreign Relations) Russian President Vladimir Putin has been reminding the United States of his powerful nuclear arsenal in recent weeks. He announced successful tests of novel nuclear delivery systems and proposed an extension to New START—the bilateral strategic nuclear arms treaty that limits the size of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals—for one year. Putin maintains that an extension would help to “avoid provoking a further arms race” and “ensure an acceptable level of predictability and restraint” in the bilateral relationship. So far, Trump has said that an extension “sounds like a good idea,” though the White House does not appear to have a clarified position yet. If the United States and Russia take no action, the final strategic arms limitation treaty will expire on February 5, 2026. – Putin’s Nuclear Offer: How to Navigate a New START Extension | Council on Foreign Relations
US – Saudi Arabia
(Gracelin Baskaran – CSIS) The visit by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington, D.C., marks a high-profile moment in the strategic partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia. During meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump, the two sides are discussing a wide-ranging agenda: advancing arms and defense cooperation, expanding critical minerals cooperation, deepening economic and investment ties, and aligning on regional security challenges. The visit represents a major step forward in the bilateral minerals relationship. The two countries established a Strategic Framework for Cooperation on securing uranium, metals, permanent magnets, and critical mineral supply chains, which is designed to facilitate two-way investment in this vital sector and serve as a “cornerstone” of the bilateral strategic partnership. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Defense (recently renamed the Department of War) also announced that it will finance a 49 percent equity stake in a new rare earths refinery in Saudi Arabia. Given the kingdom’s substantial reserves of heavy rare earth elements, this partnership between the Department of War, Maaden, and MP Materials will play a critical role in reducing dependence on China, particularly following a year of pronounced volatility in global access to heavy rare earths. – What’s in the New U.S.-Saudi Minerals Agreement?
(Atlantic Council) “We’ve always been on the same side of every issue.” That’s how US President Donald Trump described Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) during a chummy Oval Office meeting on Tuesday, part of a day of pageantry and dealmaking at the White House. The United States and Saudi Arabia struck a series of agreements on defense, semiconductors, nuclear power, and more. – Digging into the details of the US-Saudi deals – Atlantic Council
(The Soufan Center) The high-profile visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) to the White House produced agreements carrying mutual strategic and economic benefit, but Trump did not gain a Saudi commitment to normalize relations with Israel. A U.S. agreement to defend the Kingdom against threats and sell it the F-35 aircraft, the most advanced in the U.S. arsenal, cements Saudi Arabia’s standing as among the closest U.S. allies. MBS’ pledge to invest up to $1 trillion in the United States, even if that level is not achieved, will anchor the U.S. and Saudi economies and help MBS reduce the Kingdom’s reliance on sales of hydrocarbon products. Trump did not commit to a Saudi request for a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, which could permit the Kingdom to enrich uranium. – Saudi De-Facto Leader MBS Visit Cements Strategic Ties to Washington – The Soufan Center
Uzbekistan – European Union
(Emil Avdaliani – The Jamestown Foundation) The European Union and Uzbekistan signed an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA), replacing the framework governing Brussels–Tashkent relations since bilateral ties were officially established in 1999. The expanding ties between Uzbekistan and the European Union are indicative of Brussels’s changing approach toward Central Asia, which now places more emphasis on commercial and trade opportunities. Along with trade and connectivity, the European Union is interested in Uzbekistan’s green energy potential, and Brussels is eyeing the Caspian basin for alternative energy resources. – Uzbekistan and European Union Sign Cooperation Agreement – Jamestown
