From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye.
Today’s about: Ethiopia-Tigray Region-Eritrea; Israel-Somaliland-Horn of Africa; Munich Security Conference; New START (US-Russia-China); Russia-India; Russia-Ukraine; US-Iran; Zangezur Energy Corridor
Ethiopia – Tigray Region – Eritrea
(Crisis Group) The risk of hostilities involving Ethiopia, its northernmost Tigray region and its neighbour Eritrea remains high three years after the last major war in the area. African states and outside powers should urgently open back channels among the three governments to defuse tensions. – Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa | International Crisis Group
Israel – Somaliland – Horn of Africa
(Crisis Group) In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Asher Lubotzky, senior research fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, to discuss Israel’s recognition of Somaliland and its interests in the Horn of Africa. They trace the history of Israel’s involvement in the region and its relationships today. They discuss why Israel moved to recognise Somaliland, how the decision links to Red Sea security concerns and the Houthi threat from Yemen, and what both sides hope to gain from closer ties. They also examine whether the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could shape Israel’s role in the Horn, and what Israel hopes to gain from diplomatic relations on the continent. – Israel, Somaliland and the Horn | International Crisis Group
Munich Security Conference
(Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Constanze Stelzenmüller – Brookings) The Munich Security Conference felt notably energetic and action-oriented this year, with Europeans and Americans actively coordinating on projects behind the scenes. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech unsettled many Europeans as he focused on ethnonationalist ties between the U.S. and Europe rather than genuine threats from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine received strong support and was treated as part of the “European family,” but Europe fears being sidelined by U.S.-Russia negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. – From the halls of the Munich Security Conference | Brookings
New START (US-Russia-China)
(Steven Pifer – Brookings) The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty lapsed on February 5, 2026. U.S. President Donald Trump has said he will seek a better agreement, and Washington wants to bring in China and limit all Russian nuclear warheads, not just the deployed strategic warheads captured by New START. These are laudable goals. Trump sought, but failed, to achieve both in his first term. If he wishes to do better this time, he will have to engage early and discuss issues of interest to Beijing and Moscow—issues that will not be comfortable for Washington. – What comes after New START? | Brookings
Russia – India
(Paul Globe – The Jamestown Foundation) Moscow wants to replace departing migrant workers from Central Asia and the Caucasus with new ones from India. Attacks on Indians studying in Russia, however, make that an unlikely prospect, as Indian workers will hardly want to face such xenophobia. If Moscow cannot attract new migrants, however, many jobs that such workers now perform will go unfilled, adding to popular anger when streets are not cleaned or packages are not delivered and undermining the prospects for economic recovery even further. This spread of Russian xenophobic attacks on Central Asians to Indians almost certainly presages more xenophobic attacks by Russians on the non-Russian quarter of the population, threatening Russia’s stability and even territorial integrity. – Attacks on Indians Compromise Moscow’s Ability to Attract New Migrants – Jamestown
Russia – Ukraine
(Maksym Beznosiuk – The Jamestown Foundation) Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast have adopted a “preventive threat elimination” approach, presuming civilian disloyalty by default and ordering troops to conduct random searches, phone inspections, and detentions. Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the resistance in the occupied regions has escalated sabotage operations against Russian military logistics, derailing trains in occupied Zaporizhzhia, spreading pro-Ukraine information, disrupting rail lines in Crimea, and targeting infrastructure inside Russia. Ukrainian resistance imposes persistent logistical and administrative costs that compel Moscow to expand repressive measures. The Kremlin has imported police personnel into the occupied territories of Ukraine, expanded surveillance, and increased its budget for “National Security and Law Enforcement.” – Kremlin Institutionalizing ‘Preventive Repression’ in Ukraine’s Occupied Territories – Jamestown
(Brookings) Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Four years and at least a million casualties later, fighting continues with Russia occupying less than a fifth of Ukrainian territory and bombing the rest of the country amidst halting peace negotiations led by the Trump administration. Eleven Brookings scholars answer questions about Ukraine, Russia, Europe, the United States, and the prospects for peace. – What price for peace in Ukraine? | Brookings
US – Iran
(The Soufan Center) The two sides publicly described Tuesday’s second round of revived U.S.-Iran talks on a nuclear issue as positive, but accounts citing U.S. officials, speaking on background, suggested the discussions are close to an impasse. Officials in Tehran assess that the negotiating process, coupled with Iranian shows of strength, will prevent President Trump from unleashing the large U.S. force assembling near Iran in a major campaign against Iran’s strategic targets and its leaders. In the Tuesday talks, Iran did not bend its red lines, including a refusal to end all uranium enrichment or to negotiate limits on its arsenal of ballistic missiles. Iranian leaders are offering broad U.S. access to the Iranian market in an effort to satisfy Trump’s interest in broadening U.S. business ties to the region. – Second U.S.-Iran Talks Yield Mixed Results with Middle East on Edge – The Soufan Center
(Nate Swanson – Atlantic Council) With negotiations seemingly headed nowhere, a new conflict with Iran looks increasingly likely, if not inevitable. The United States has gathered the most air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq war. A US military operation in Iran would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like a full-fledged war than the early January operation to remove Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro from power. At this moment, there’s no clarity on whether the United States will strike, what in Iran it would strike, or what might follow. In the absence of answers, it’s all the more important to ask the right questions. – Before striking Iran, Trump should answer these six questions – Atlantic Council
Zangezur Energy Corridor
(Vusal Guliyev – The Jamestown Foundation) On January 29, AzerEnerji began construction of the Zangezur Energy Corridor, which aims to integrate Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Region exclave into Azerbaijan’s national energy grid via the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), also known as the Zangezur Corridor. The energy corridor’s goal is to enhance Azerbaijan’s domestic energy security while positioning the country as a regional electricity hub linking Asia and Europe. The project centers on a double-circuit 330-kilovolt transmission line with roughly 1,000-megawatt capacity alongside a new substation in Nakhchivan. The Zangezur Energy Corridor represents both a practical solution to Nakhchivan’s long-standing isolation and a strategic investment in a future in which electricity flows—alongside data, goods, and capital—more firmly integrate the South Caucasus into the broader Eurasian and European economic space. – Zangezur Energy Corridor Enhancing Regional Energy Connectivity – Jamestown
