From global think tanks
The analyses published here do not necessarily reflect the strategic thinking of The Global Eye
China
(Jacob Mardell – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has an extensive taxonomy of diplomatic relations, with at least 42 unique combinations of adjectives for different partnerships. The PRC has never delineated the ranking of these partnerships explicitly, though there is enough available information to determine a loose hierarchy. The adjective that carries the most weight is “all-weather (全天侯)” or, in the case of Kazakhstan, “permanent (永久).” The elevation of 30 African nations to an “all-weather community of common destiny” in September indicates the importance the PRC sees in its relations with the continent. The PRC continues to avoid traditional alliances, favoring flexible partnerships instead. This approach allows Beijing to foster international cooperation without political entanglements. The terms “community of common destiny” and “new era” have grown in importance in recent years and reflect alignment on specific strategic challenges, especially against the United States. The PRC deploys the combination of phrases carefully to individual countries to maximize their strategic value. – PRC Partnership Diplomacy in the New Era – Jamestown
China – Africa
(Arran Hope – The Jamestown Foundation) The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has successfully used its hosting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation to burnish its soft power and its credentials to be seen as the leader of the Global South. Close political alignment on core issues, including African states affirming support for the PRC’s positions on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and unification with Taiwan are indicative of the PRC’s diplomatic gains. Politics was central to the event, with the promotion of exchanges and cooperation announced between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and African political parties, between the PRC’s Supreme People’s Court and the Court of Justice of the African Union, and between the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and regional organizations, alongside numerous training programs in various domains. Africa joined a “community of common destiny,” which entails a rejection of the Western approach to modernization. The West in general and the United States explicitly were heavily criticized throughout the forum. – Beijing’s Soft Power Push with African Nations – Jamestown
(Harsh V. Pant, Samir Bhattacharya – Observer Research Foundation) The Ninth Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation took place in Beijing from 4 to 6 September 2024, under the theme ‘Joining Hands to Advance Modernisation and Build a High-Level China-Africa Community with a Shared Future’. With the exception of Eswatini, leaders from 53 African nations, along with the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, HE Moussa Faki Mahamat, attended the summit. UN Secretary-General António Guterres was also a special guest. During the summit, China established or elevated strategic partnerships with 30 countries. – China is elevating relations with Africa. Why its $51 billion funding is highly misleading (orfonline.org)
China – Bangladesh
(Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan – The Jamestown Foundation) The fall of Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Bangladesh, in August has presented an opportunity for Beijing to strengthen ties with the more pro-China Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JIB). The People’s Republic of China (PRC) aims to solidify its influence in Bangladesh, particularly as it competes with India for regional dominance. After Hasina was ousted following the “Monsoon Revolution” protests, the PRC swiftly engaged with Bangladesh’s new potential political leadership, positioning itself to capitalize on deeper bilateral relations regardless of political changes in Dhaka. The PRC has historic ties to Bangladesh’s defense establishment and has provided 72 percent of its military equipment. The modernization of Bangladesh’s military under the “Forces Goal 2030” offers the potential for increased arms imports between the two countries. The PRC remains the largest trading partner of South Asia’s second-largest economy and plays a crucial role in the country’s infrastructure projects. It also promotes the use of Renminbi in bilateral trade. – PRC Seeking to Boost Ties with Bangladesh After Hasina’s Demise – Jamestown
China – Taiwan
(Matthew Sperzel, Daniel Shats, and Alison O’Neil – Institute for the Study of War) The CCP framed the corruption case against Taiwan People’s Party founder Ko Wen-je as part of a “Green Terror” campaign by Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party to persecute “dissidents.”. Four Chinese Coast Guard ships intruded into Taiwan’s “restricted waters” around Kinmen on two consecutive days in a continuing effort to assert PRC jurisdiction over the waters. The 2024 Beijing Xiangshan Forum points toward an increase in the PRC’s international security cooperation, most notably with Russia. The PRC used the BRICS high-level meeting of representatives for security affairs in St. Petersburg to promote the forum as the voice of the Global South. The Philippines withdrew the BRP Theresa Magbanua from Sabina Shoal following four weeks of the CCG blocking Philippine resupply missions to the Shoal. The CCG could replicate this strategy against other PCG ships, such as the BRP Sierra Madre in the Second Thomas Shoal. – China-Taiwan Weekly Update, September 20, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Yu-cheng Chen, K. Tristan Tang – Jamestown Foundation) Beijing has begun to assert greater jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait, with incursions by People’s Republic of China (PRC) government vessels into waters under Taiwan’s jurisdiction set to continue or even increase in number. The PRC is trying to blur the reality of the division between itself and Taiwan by ignoring the median line in the Taiwan Strait. This projects a perception that there is nothing remarkable or worth concealing about PRC vessels crossing the median line. Recent missions have been assigned to provincial-level vessels (such as the Fujian Coast Guard) rather than those of the central government or the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). This is done to demonstrate that the management of the Taiwan Strait falls under PRC domestic administrative affairs. PRC vessels have avoided direct confrontations with Taiwanese law enforcement units, instead focusing on executing their own missions. This normalizes the presence of PRC law enforcement activities in the strait, aiming to create the perception that PRC management of the Taiwan Strait is a routine matter. – PRC Expands De Facto Jurisdiction in the Taiwan Strait – Jamestown
Energy Security
(Lorenzo Crescentini – Observer Research Foundation) This brief analyses the similarities and differences between the weaponisation of oil and that of gas. Discourse around the weaponisation of energy has increased since 1973, after oil-producing Arab countries attempted to use oil to pressure Europe and the United States to abandon their military aid to Israel. The subject has received renewed interest following recent events, such as the energy tensions between the European Union and the Russian Federation that started in 2009 and culminated in the 2022 global energy crisis, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the world transitions to green energy and the use of fossil fuels is reduced, it is important to understand how these energy sources interact with inter-state conflicts. There are two main events in which oil and natural gas were weaponised: the Arab oil embargo and the EU–Russia energy war. A comparison of the two events will help highlight lessons learned to ensure energy security globally. – Energy as Weapon: Lessons from the Arab Oil Embargo and the War in Ukraine (orfonline.org)
European Union
(Anthony Dworkin – European Council on Foreign Relations) This weekend’s UN Summit of the Future shows that while countries are at odds, most are still looking for ways to work together. Even if the summit won’t achieve dramatic progress, it should spur Europe to forge new partnerships with the global south. – Future imperfect: The lessons the EU should draw from the UN Summit of the Future | ECFR
(Kim Westerich-Fellner – European Council on Foreign Relations) The de facto absence of European arms control regimes has opened political and operational security gaps. NATO and its partner states should strengthen their cross-border expertise and balance stronger deterrence measures with effective restraint. – Up in arms: European security options for a post-cooperative era | ECFR
India – Brunei
(Rahul Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) To reach out to the hitherto untouched corners of Southeast Asia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi paid a two-day bilateral state visit to Brunei—the first Indian PM to do so. The visit assumes added significance since India and Brunei are commemorating 40 years of their bilateral relations this year, which also marks the tenth anniversary of the launch of India’s ‘Act East Policy’. India-Brunei diplomatic ties, though important, often remain an understated facet of India’s Eastward engagement. Modest as it may seem to many, Brunei does play a strategically important role in India’s Act East calculus, particularly in the energy and space sectors. It may not seem as prominent as larger ASEAN nations like Malaysia, Singapore, or Indonesia; it is, nonetheless, important for a range of short and long-term reasons. Brunei has the potential to become the ‘second Singapore’ for India in the Southeast Asian region regarding its role in critical sectors, energy, science, and technology, and infrastructure cooperation with India. – Brunei can plug gaps in India’s Act East Policy (orfonline.org)
Libya
(John Hamilton – RUSI) As Libya struggles with deep-seated issues of state capture and corruption, the international community must take action against those who are plundering the country’s money and resources. – It is Time to Sanction those Responsible for State Capture in Libya | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
Middle East
(Johanna Moore, Carolyn Moorman, Annika Ganzeveld, Kathryn Tyson, Katherine Wells, Behzad Rezaei, and Nicholas Carl – Institute for the Study of War) – Lebanon: Israel appears to be exploiting disarray in Lebanese Hezbollah in order to inflict further damage upon the group. The IDF conducted an airstrike in southern Beirut killing several senior commanders in Hezbollah’s Radwan SOF unit. – Lebanon: In the event of a major Israeli offensive into Lebanon, the IDF will have certain advantages that it did not in its war against Hezbollah in 2006 but will also face new challenges. The IDF and Hezbollah have both gained combat experience since then. – Iraq: Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have indicated that they would intervene in an Israel-Hezbollah war, which would risk intensifying the conflict across the Middle East. These militias are active near in Syria near the Israeli border. – Gaza Strip: The United States does not reportedly expect Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire-hostage agreement in the coming months. Hamas has made demands in the negotiations and then refused to accept a deal after the United States and Israel have accepted those demands. – Iran Update, September 20, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
(Kabir Taneja – Observer Research Foundation) One could easily dismiss it as a spy film plot if it weren’t so real: a highly sophisticated ‘pager attack’ purportedly by Israeli agencies has left dozens dead and opened a new front in the ongoing Gaza crisis. Nine people were reported killed and over 2,700, including civilians, were injured when a series of text pagers supposedly used by Hezbollah members exploded in various parts of the country. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was also injured in the explosions. Reports suggest Israel had intercepted the group’s supply chains and laced more than 5,000 of these devices with explosives. A Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo, has denied charges that it was the provider of the consignment. Earlier, in February, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah had warned his group against the use of mobile phones. – Pager Attacks: What Next For Hezbollah? (orfonline.org)
Quad
(Harsh V. Pant, Vivek Mishra – Observer Research Foundation) After much anticipation, the leaders of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan and the United States) will convene for their fourth summit in Wilmington, Delaware, U.S., on September 21. This meeting marks a full circle since the first in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden in 2021, symbolising the steady evolution of this strategic partnership. The summit takes place against a backdrop of pressing global challenges and transitions in leadership among some member-nations, set on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and the United Nations Summit of the Future. – In Wilmington, juxtaposing immediacy with legacy (orfonline.org)
Russia
(Mikhail Komin – European Council on Foreign Relations) It may seem intuitive that autocrats and unfree elections are the best of friends. And Vladimir Putin left nothing to chance in his fifth re-election as Russia’s president in May, when he secured 87 per cent vote of the vote. For an electoral autocracy such as Russia this level of certainty is nothing out of the ordinary. Nationwide elections serve primarily to lend procedural legitimacy and a democratic image on the world stage. Regional and municipal elections, however, are typically more contested and provide Russian authorities with valuable signals of public sentiment. Without this, they cannot address resentment until it’s out on the streets. And without opposition in parliament, some who are against the Putin regime are pushed towards other more disruptive tactics. Counterintuitively, complete autocratic zealousness could therefore spell the regime’s undoing. Russia’s recent gubernatorial races threaten to do just that. – The perils of predictability: Why Putin’s tightening grip on election results will backfire | ECFR
(Nikolai Petrov – Chatham House) Former Russian deputy defence minister Pavel Popov was detained by a military court on fraud charges on 29 August. This marks the latest in a series of moves by Russian law enforcement against high-ranking defence officials. – Putin’s purging of defence ministry suggests he is preparing for a long war | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
(Pavel Luzin – The Jamestown Foundation) Russia aims to increase its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel, largely to justify higher military spending. The Kremlin, however, faces difficulties achieving this target, as the war in Ukraine continues to cause tremendous casualties, rapidly depleting Russia’s supply of manpower. Despite stable enrollment numbers in military academies and recruitment from civil universities, Russia continues to struggle with a shortage of low- and mid-ranking officers. The temporary growth of the officer corps, fueled by the “partial” mobilization, may reverse once mobilization ends. Moscow is expanding military schools and programs for children and teenagers, aiming to create a Soviet-style military system that can be quickly mobilized despite the technological weaknesses of Russia’s military-industrial complex. – Russia Faces Significant Future Deficit in Officers Corps – Jamestown
Russia – Indo Pacific
(Kirill Likhachev – Observer Research Foundation) In the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the intensifying confrontation between Russia and the West in recent years, the implementation of Russia’s “Pivot to the East” strategy has emerged as a necessary response to the increasingly stringent sanctions imposed by the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). The Indo-Pacific region has become strategically vital for Russia’s political and economic development, necessitating heightened engagement in this region since the Ukraine war broke out. Consequently, Russia’s bilateral relations with Indo-Pacific powers have assumed greater significance in the analysis of its current foreign policy priorities, which are aimed at bolstering trade and economic relations amidst deepening estrangement from Western nations. It is also important to consider the influence of the quadrilateral relationship between Russia, China, India, and the US on their bilateral interactions and the broader development of the Indo-Pacific region. While the development of multilateral frameworks such as BRICS+ and SCO, alongside the intensification of ties with certain ASEAN countries, has gained new momentum in alignment with Russia’s foreign policy interests, Moscow’s bilateral relations with major Asian powers play a far more critical role in its strategic approach. The deteriorating antagonism between Russia and the West is pushing Moscow towards deeper alignment with Beijing, even though China is keen to avoid significant risks associated with secondary sanctions, let alone direct military-technical support to Russia. In turn, although the Russo-Chinese rapprochement may be viewed as somewhat constrained, it undoubtedly impacts Russia-India relations, particularly in light of the ongoing border disputes and strategic competition between India and China in Asia. – Russia’s Indo-Pacific conundrum (orfonline.org)
Russia’s War on Ukraine
(Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Haley Zehrung, and Frederick W. Kagan – Institute for the Study of War) European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced two new loan mechanisms worth up to 45 billion euros (roughly $50 billion) and 35 billion euros (roughly $39 billion) respectively during a visit to Kyiv on September 20. Russian authorities were reportedly aware of the threat of a future Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in the months leading up to August 2024 but failed to take adequate steps to address such a threat. These documents support ISW’s recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the incursion into Kursk Oblast despite Russian authorities’ reported awareness of the possibility of an incursion. Russian officials attempted to use a meeting with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to legitimize Russia’s occupation of Ukraine and promote false narratives about alleged Ukrainian human rights abuses. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Vovchansk and Siversk. Russian state media is increasingly emphasizing the participation of foreign nationals in the Russian war effort in Ukraine, likely to reassure domestic audiences that Russia continues to recruit sufficient manpower and will not need to declare another mobilization wave. – Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 20, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
Southeast Asia
(Sin Lu Tan – IISS) As their green-transition efforts are increasingly caught up in the US–China rivalry, Southeast Asian states must find a way to convert potential short-term economic gains into long-lasting ones. – The geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s green transition (iiss.org)
Sri Lanka – India
(Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy – Observer Research Foundation) On 21 September 2024, Sri Lanka will be heading to a crucial Presidential election—the first one since it experienced deep economic and political turmoil. Unlike previous polls, this election is more competitive and has seen the highest number of contestants. A total of 38 candidates will be contesting this year. On the ground, it seems that the left-inclined Anura Dissanayake is in the lead and has an advantage over the others—albeit it might not translate into victory. India, which has assisted the country during the crisis and has seen a recent upswing in relations, is willing to work with any incoming government. However, Delhi will have to find a way to leverage and build upon its goodwill with this incoming government, as its assistance is now being perceived variedly in the island nation. – The Sri Lankan elections and the question of Indian goodwill: Perspectives from the ground (orfonline.org)
Sudan
(Andrea Currie-Edwards – Atlantic Council) The toll of the ongoing civil war in Sudan is staggering. According to an estimate by Médecins Sans Frontières, every two hours a child dies of severe malnutrition in a displacement camp in Sudan’s North Darfur state. The war—a power struggle that began in April 2023 in Khartoum between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—is now marked by 10.7 million Sudanese displaced, more than half of them children. Sudan is experiencing its worst levels of food insecurity ever recorded, with more than 25.6 million people across ten states facing heightened risk of famine. Seventeen months into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, the internal conflict has spread across the country and is marked by widespread death, war crimes, recruitment of children as soldiers, rape and violence against women, disease, intentional destruction of the country’s food reserves, and now heavy rains causing flooding. – The Sudan crisis has become a magnet for foreign malign influence and strategic corruption – Atlantic Council
Sustainable Development Goals
(Patrick Schröder, Jack Barrie – Chatham House) With progress on the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) badly off track, international policymakers are scrambling for solutions that can both revitalize the current SDG agenda and drive more effective action on humanity’s big challenges in the future. The ‘circular economy’ offers clear potential in this area. This wide-ranging concept, which involves making economies less wasteful and less resource-intensive while contributing to human development and well-being, could hold the key to accelerating SDG delivery. A more formal role within the SDGs and any emerging post-2030 successor regime would also provide a catalyst for expansion of the circular economy itself. – How the circular economy can revive the Sustainable Development Goals | Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank
Turkmenistan – TAPI Pipeline
(Syed Fazl-e-Haider – The Jamestown Foundation) Earlier this month, a critical section of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline project was inaugurated on the border between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. The pipeline aims to reshape the energy landscape in Central and South Asia. The primary reason behind the project delays has been political uncertainty in the region, the war-like situation in Afghanistan, and rising tensions between Kabul and Islamabad due to terrorist activities along their shared border. Interstate rivalries between participating countries and the challenging security environment in Afghanistan and elsewhere point to an uncertain future for the TAPI pipeline, though Ashgabat seems set to push ahead. – Turkmenistan Resumes Work on TAPI Pipeline Despite Geopolitical Hurdles – Jamestown
United Kingdom
(Douglas Barrie, Karl Dewey, Fenella McGerty – IISS) The British government has embarked on a Strategic Defence Review that could determine the future of the UK’s combat-air capability. The tri-national Global Air Combat Air Programme is currently at the core of these plans, but what might the defence review hold for the project? – Tempest: Build, buy, or good-bye? (iiss.org)
United Kingdom – European Union
(Shairee Malhotra, Noah Chamberlain – Observer Research Foundation) Following their election victory, the newly elected Labour government has made growth the central focus of its discourse, emphasising a renewed commitment to stability and development. However, achieving significant growth—much above the 1.5 percent annual increase in GDP—requires more than mere assurances of political stability. The United Kingdom’s (UK) productivity has languished since the financial crisis, and Brexit continues to weigh heavily on the economy trimming as much as 3 percent of the UK’s GDP, complicating any efforts to re-engage with the European Union (EU) without expending significant diplomatic and political capital. – With the Tories gone, what next for EU-UK relations? (orfonline.org)
United Kingdom – Indo Pacific
(William Choong, Eugene Tan – RUSI) As the new Minister for the Indo-Pacific visits Asia, given the UK’s vast interests in this consequential region, Whitehall should focus on deepening its diplomatic and military engagement. – The UK and the Indo-Pacific: The Need to Lean into the Tilt | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
United Nations
(Paul B. Stares, Natalie Caloca – Council on Foreign Relations) Deadly conflicts in the Gaza Strip, Ukraine, Sudan, and several other regions continue to rage as the UN General Assembly prepares for its seventy-ninth round of meetings this September. These and other security challenges will weigh heavily on world leaders when they meet on September 22 and 23 for the Summit of the Future, billed by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity to revive multilateral cooperation. The summit is set to culminate in a consensus endorsement of a Pact for the Future by all 193 UN member states. Arguably the most consequential area for debate will be the UN’s role in managing international conflict and promoting global peace. With the UN Security Council (UNSC) beset by tensions between its most powerful members at a level unmatched since the Cold War, meaningful progress will be hard if not impossible to achieve. – Security Challenges Cloud UN’s Summit of the Future | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
